Trade with 49ers ?

[fiestavike]

Production is so relative in college. Its relative even in the NFL. I never understand putting much weight on 'production'.

[Texas Vike]

Didn't answer my questions, but that's great that they did for you. I wish I could say that I trust Vikings' scouts, but they have brought us some first round losers at the position. So it's simply not easy to predict NFL success, even for guys who do this professionally and ostensibly with a lot more time and resources than us fans.

Both Reagor and Mims are fast, but on the field folks who have watched Big 12 football will tell you that Reagor is faster on the field, in games, with pads on. Even my buddy who is a huge Baylor fan would admit that.

Edit to add: if you want to (ignorantly, IMO) dismiss the QB issue for Reagor, compare 2018 stats for both guys. Mims: 55 rec, 794 yards, 8 TDs. Reagor: 72, 1061, 9. Who dwarfed whom?

If that didn't answer separation questions I don't know what to say. He got separation all but one time.

Reagor is very fast on the field. You could be right that he plays faster. He gets better separation. I didn't dismiss bad QB play at all. I specifically pointed it out. One season out of 3 when Mims was playing with a Broken Hand Reagor had better production. For their careers Mims dominated. However, in Reagor's favor when they were both Freshman Reagor already broke out while Mims didn't break out until his sophomore season. The three year comparison is Mims sophomore through senior season, but it's Reagor's freshman through junior seasons. I don't believe either redshirted.

Solid post.

Both Mims and Reagor don't fully convince me at the next level. I just don't know what to expect and don't feel confident enough that their talents will fully blossom in the NFL, making them the superstars that we need. I'm more familiar with Reagor and his burst and vertical make me believe that has a shot. I'm nervous about the mental side of the game for both. I think Football IQ is important, especially at positions like QB and WR, and I think that's why CP84 never flourished, but Diggs and Thielen have. There is also the invisible, character questions that are very hard to measure: determination, perseverance, will power, hunger. Diggs and AT were both profoundly motivated, for their own reasons, to make it in the NFL. These are nearly impossible things for a fan to evaluate, much less a pro scout.

[VikingsVictorious]

If that didn't answer separation questions I don't know what to say. He got separation all but one time.

Reagor is very fast on the field. You could be right that he plays faster. He gets better separation. I didn't dismiss bad QB play at all. I specifically pointed it out. One season out of 3 when Mims was playing with a Broken Hand Reagor had better production. For their careers Mims dominated. However, in Reagor's favor when they were both Freshman Reagor already broke out while Mims didn't break out until his sophomore season. The three year comparison is Mims sophomore through senior season, but it's Reagor's freshman through junior seasons. I don't believe either redshirted.

Solid post.

Both Mims and Reagor don't fully convince me at the next level. I just don't know what to expect and don't feel confident enough that their talents will fully blossom in the NFL, making them the superstars that we need. I'm more familiar with Reagor and his burst and vertical make me believe that has a shot. I'm nervous about the mental side of the game for both. I think Football IQ is important, especially at positions like QB and WR, and I think that's why CP84 never flourished, but Diggs and Thielen have. There is also the invisible, character questions that are very hard to measure: determination, perseverance, will power, hunger. Diggs and AT were both profoundly motivated, for their own reasons, to make it in the NFL. These are nearly impossible things for a fan to evaluate, much less a pro scout.

You replied before I added my reason for preferring Mims. It comes down to catch radius. Regardless I would be just fine with either of them at our first overall pick.

[VikingsVictorious]

Production is so relative in college. Its relative even in the NFL. I never understand putting much weight on 'production'.

Because when all is said and done production is what wins football games. However, coming from college to the Pros is that production likely to be transferable. A 4.65 40 college WR can be super productive in the right system, but that almost never works out in the pros.

[VikingLord]

PFF still sees him as a sure fire first round pick.

I don't know. Mims reminds me of Treadwell in more ways than one. For running a fast 40, he sure doesn't play very fast, and I've watched enough of his highlights to see why many are concerned about his separation.

And just falling back to the obvious - sure fire prospects usually don't have such a wide range of opinion. I'm not talking about opinion of fans on this board. I'm talking about opinion among professional player evaluators who do this for a living. You can dismiss my criticisms of Mims all you want, but you can't deny that whatever you believe about him is far from a consensus.

I'd stay away from Mims in the early rounds. Spielman can't afford another Treadwell or CP in this draft.

[VikingsVictorious]

PFF still sees him as a sure fire first round pick.

I don't know. Mims reminds me of Treadwell in more ways than one. For running a fast 40, he sure doesn't play very fast, and I've watched enough of his highlights to see why many are concerned about his separation.

And just falling back to the obvious - sure fire prospects usually don't have such a wide range of opinion. I'm not talking about opinion of fans on this board. I'm talking about opinion among professional player evaluators who do this for a living. You can dismiss my criticisms of Mims all you want, but you can't deny that whatever you believe about him is far from a consensus.

I'd stay away from Mims in the early rounds. Spielman can't afford another Treadwell or CP in this draft.

The consensus is that he will be drafted in the first round as either the 4th through 7th player selected. Sure there are some IMO very foolish analysts who have him as a 2nd or 3rd round pick, but a very strong majority have him going in the first round.

[fiestavike]

Production is so relative in college. Its relative even in the NFL. I never understand putting much weight on 'production'.

Because when all is said and done production is what wins football games. However, coming from college to the Pros is that production likely to be transferable. A 4.65 40 college WR can be super productive in the right system, but that almost never works out in the pros.

No, production is not what wins games. That is a persistent fallacy that only applies in fantasy football. Production is the result of many things that contribute to it, but it is not something that even exists in its own right.

[VikingsVictorious]

Because when all is said and done production is what wins football games. However, coming from college to the Pros is that production likely to be transferable. A 4.65 40 college WR can be super productive in the right system, but that almost never works out in the pros.

No, production is not what wins games. That is a persistent fallacy that only applies in fantasy football. Production is the result of many things that contribute to it, but it is not something that even exists in its own right.

You're going metaphysical or something. Points scored are production. If points aren't scored the team doesn't win. Gaining yards can lead to points. Getting TOs prevents points and can lead to points. Production means points Production wins games.

[VikingLord]

The consensus is that he will be drafted in the first round as either the 4th through 7th player selected. Sure there are some IMO very foolish analysts who have him as a 2nd or 3rd round pick, but a very strong majority have him going in the first round.

I'll grant you the strength of your conviction about Mims. Your belief in his ability and future as a pro is admirable, and I can't say you're wrong on either point.

Objectively, there isn't much to support your projection. I will be very surprised if Mims goes in the 1st. I'd be equally surprised to see him last past the 3rd. Likewise, Mims could become a notable and productive WR at the pro level. I could equally see him flame out ala what Treadwell did.

[VikingsVictorious]

The consensus is that he will be drafted in the first round as either the 4th through 7th player selected. Sure there are some IMO very foolish analysts who have him as a 2nd or 3rd round pick, but a very strong majority have him going in the first round.

I'll grant you the strength of your conviction about Mims. Your belief in his ability and future as a pro is admirable, and I can't say you're wrong on either point.

Objectively, there isn't much to support your projection. I will be very surprised if Mims goes in the 1st. I'd be equally surprised to see him last past the 3rd. Likewise, Mims could become a notable and productive WR at the pro level. I could equally see him flame out ala what Treadwell did.

Sounds like a bet. I'm good with a standard $20 bet. You should love this one. You think Mims might be a third round pick. You win this bet if Mims isn't drafted in the first round. How can you pass that up?

As for what supports my projection?
Three very productive seasons.
Best Combine of all WRs with the possible exception of Claypool if you love his size.
Dominant at the Senior Bowl when all the best college talent in the nation got together.
That is mountain of evidence to support my projection.

[fiestavike]

No, production is not what wins games. That is a persistent fallacy that only applies in fantasy football. Production is the result of many things that contribute to it, but it is not something that even exists in its own right.

You're going metaphysical or something. Points scored are production. If points aren't scored the team doesn't win. Gaining yards can lead to points. Getting TOs prevents points and can lead to points. Production means points Production wins games.

No, you are just incorrect on this. You are measuring by outcomes, not the processes beneath the outcomes. The best that can give you is correlation, not an actual understanding of what leads to productive plays/productive players. Its just a poor and inaccurate way to measure, but to each their own.

[VikingsVictorious]

You're going metaphysical or something. Points scored are production. If points aren't scored the team doesn't win. Gaining yards can lead to points. Getting TOs prevents points and can lead to points. Production means points Production wins games.

No, you are just incorrect on this. You are measuring by outcomes, not the processes beneath the outcomes. The best that can give you is correlation, not an actual understanding of what leads to productive plays/productive players. Its just a poor and inaccurate way to measure, but to each their own.

I am stating fact. Production in the form of points is the only determiner of winning and losing. There are other forms of production, but the best production of points is absolute in winning or losing.

[VikingLord]

Sounds like a bet. I'm good with a standard $20 bet. You should love this one. You think Mims might be a third round pick. You win this bet if Mims isn't drafted in the first round. How can you pass that up?

Yeah, you've got your evidence and your conviction and that's great.

So if you're betting that Mims goes in the 1st round I'll take that bet.

No need to put money on it. The loser of the bet just posts something in this thread acknowledging the winner was right.

[Vikings09]

Looking at how teams got better in the NFC we need to make some moves and not just trade down all night. Let’s say we get Williams and I think we should trade up and get a Cee Dee Lamb or Jeudy because we need a game breaker at wideout...the second pick of the first round go LB Murray and could be a game changer on defense

[VikingsVictorious]

Sounds like a bet. I'm good with a standard $20 bet. You should love this one. You think Mims might be a third round pick. You win this bet if Mims isn't drafted in the first round. How can you pass that up?

Yeah, you've got your evidence and your conviction and that's great.

So if you're betting that Mims goes in the 1st round I'll take that bet.

No need to put money on it. The loser of the bet just posts something in this thread acknowledging the winner was right.

Boring, but OK. I would prefer $20 on it. Mims could fall out of the first round. I give that a 20% chance.