PHP's Early Mock Offseason

[Pondering Her Percy]

Nice write up.

Your draft is solid and I really like your pick at 25. Are you sure you have mocked enough 7th rounders though?

I think you pretty much got who were are keeping of the free agents right, with the exception of Griffen. He can't be restructured, because his contract is void, but aside from that minor nitpick, I don't think he would take so little with how much edge rushers make in free agency. Someone is going to offer him a 4 year deal of around 50 million, and we can't afford that.

I think Reiff is back next year, but I agree that Joseph and Rhodes are likely gone. Joseph might be willing to take less and they keep him around.

I don't think you're quite correct on Griffen.

From what I understand, the years 2020-22 are void at Griffen's option. Granted, he could exercise that option and test free agency -- and if the market for him is as strong as you say, it might indeed be hard to keep him. However, he has said he loves Minnesota and wants to spend the rest of his career with the Vikings, so it's entirely possible that he could decline to void his contract with the understanding that he and the Vikings will renegotiate. Or he could exercise his option and sign an entirely new deal with the Vikings. Either would serve as a restructure.

The point being ... he's not a free agent until he declines his option.

Agreed that is the case Kapp. Griffen wants to be here so I highly doubt you see him opt out

[StumpHunter]

I don't think you're quite correct on Griffen.

From what I understand, the years 2020-22 are void at Griffen's option. Granted, he could exercise that option and test free agency -- and if the market for him is as strong as you say, it might indeed be hard to keep him. However, he has said he loves Minnesota and wants to spend the rest of his career with the Vikings, so it's entirely possible that he could decline to void his contract with the understanding that he and the Vikings will renegotiate. Or he could exercise his option and sign an entirely new deal with the Vikings. Either would serve as a restructure.

The point being ... he's not a free agent until he declines his option.

Agreed I believe that is the case Kapp

Overthecap says it is void:

2020-2022 contract years void if Griffen gets 6 sacks or plays 57% of defensive snaps in 2019; if so he would become a free agent in 2020.

But I don't think it matters. Everson wanted that clause in his contract, why wouldn't he exercise it if it were his option?

He will void his deal/it will be voided but he may still cost less than 13 million next season to keep around. I just think 5 million is a bit unrealistic. Cameron Wake at age 37 signed a 3 year 23 million dollar deal last year coming of a 6 sack season.

[StumpHunter]

I would be very surprised to see Cook come to camp next season without an extension. He has to know he probably only has a couple of years left to make a big pay day, and risking those years for a couple of million doesn't make a lot of sense.

I don't think it makes sense to extend him this offseason either. If he chooses to hold out with a second-year back as talented as Mattison on the roster, it may not go well for him. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. Maybe the Vikes will extend him despite the amount of time he's missed.

Cousins doesn't get hurt and they can't afford to pay more than a backup of Mannion's quality to contribute nothing for 16 games. He wasn't THAT bad in week 17 with what he was working with and asked to do. The stats don't tell the whole story of that game.

If somehow Cousins goes down before the first game of the season, role with Mannion and draft Lawrence in 2021. If he is out for a game or two, Mannion can win with some help. He isn't completely hopeless.

I'll put it this way then: they should seriously try to do better.

I think you always are looking for better.

I think what we really need is not a backup, but a guy you are getting ready to take over as a starter.

[Pondering Her Percy]

Agreed I believe that is the case Kapp

Overthecap says it is void:

2020-2022 contract years void if Griffen gets 6 sacks or plays 57% of defensive snaps in 2019; if so he would become a free agent in 2020.

But I don't think it matters. Everson wanted that clause in his contract, why wouldn't he exercise it if it were his option?

He will void his deal/it will be voided but he may still cost less than 13 million next season to keep around. I just think 5 million is a bit unrealistic. Cameron Wake at age 37 signed a 3 year 23 million dollar deal last year coming of a 6 sack season.

The guy from over the cap spoke on that podcast this morning regarding Griffen's contract. He said Griffen isnt going to decline his option and go elsewhere. He thinks he'll negotiate and stay here so whatever that means.

[Dames]

Overthecap says it is void:


But I don't think it matters. Everson wanted that clause in his contract, why wouldn't he exercise it if it were his option?

He will void his deal/it will be voided but he may still cost less than 13 million next season to keep around. I just think 5 million is a bit unrealistic. Cameron Wake at age 37 signed a 3 year 23 million dollar deal last year coming of a 6 sack season.

The guy from over the cap spoke on that podcast this morning regarding Griffen's contract. He said Griffen isnt going to decline his option and go elsewhere. He thinks he'll negotiate and stay here so whatever that means.

I guess it depends on how badly he wants to stay. I tend to agree with Stump that he could demand a lot more by going elsewhere. I think he has a ton of value left, and I think teams realize that. He's still an excellent pass rusher. But, it doesn't mean he will go somewhere either. He may really just want to be in Minnesota. I hope so, because I think we'll miss him if he goes.

[Mothman]

I think what we really need is not a backup, but a guy you are getting ready to take over as a starter.

I agree and if they look to the draft for that player, he would be affordable.

[Dames]

Really enjoyable PHP, as always. Thanks for all the hard work.

The Cousins extension makes a lot of sense, even though it's controversial. From a cap standout, I can easily see that happening. One year would be preferable at this point too. I definitely wouldn't want to see a longer extension this year.

I think trading Rhodes might be difficult with his contract, but it's not like his talent just disappeared. I'm sure there is someone out there who believes they can get him back on track. (Zim probably believes that too I'm sure.)

I'm with Jim on the Cook extension. I would prefer they wait. 4 years, 30M isn't bad, and if he stays healthy, it could be a really good deal. I'm worried about his injury history though.

Cutting Reiff scares me, because the situation could actually get worse. That's a really important decision for the Vikings. I'm not sure I understand your strong dislike for him though. He was not fantastic, but I don't think that he was a big problem either. Maybe your plan to fill his spot would be okay. It's just such a hard position to fill. The cap savings will likely drive the decision though, so seeing him gone would not be a surprise at least.

Waynes is a really tough one too. I agree that he will most likely price himself out of the running for the Vikings.

It will be interesting to see what happens with Kearse. I wish we could keep him personally, but I think he wants to be a starter somewhere. He'll probably get a chance.

I actually really like the Tajae Sharpe signing as WR3. Makes a lot of sense.

[VikeFanInEagleLand]

Wow! That was a fun read. Thanks for all the work you put into it.

[J. Kapp 11]

Cook is obviously talented but he's had one excellent season in 3 years. He finished 2019 10th in rushing and 7th in total yards from scrimmage. Those are excellent results but thus far, his career doesn't suggest the rarefied air of players like Barry Sanders or (to get closer to the Vikings) Adrian Peterson. Maybe he'll prove to be that good but in Cook's best season thus far, 9 RBs gained more rushing yards and 6 players gained more yards (presumably, they aren't all generational talents).

The Vikings would be wise to pause and think about Sidney Rice before giving Cook a lucrative deal. He missed quite a bit of time in his first 2 seasons, had a huge year in 2009 and then played 5 games in 2010, his last season with the Vikings. Hopefully, things will work out better with Cook.

Of course, Robert Smith missed a lot of time early in his Vikings career and eventually went on to have some huge seasons. You never know how these things will go but Cook is under contract. They don't need to sign him to a new contract yet, even if he wants one.

You know, it's hard to refute what you've said here.

Around Week 14 or 15, I started a thread asking whether we should be concerned at the slowdown in the Vikings rushing attack. Over the first 10 weeks of the season, we averaged 153 YPG on the ground, with only two games fewer than 100 yards. But over the next 5 games, we averaged just 85.8 YPG before our backups put up 174 to close out the season against the Bears. Meanwhile, Dalvin Cook rushed for 991 yards in the first 10 games, but only 144 yards the rest of the way (in four games, averaging just 36 YPG and 3.2 YPC). Yes, he was dinged up ... that's sort of the point.

Nobody seemed concerned. But I certainly was. As opponents schemed to stop Cook, they discovered the double bonus of a passing game that couldn't pick up the slack because it was dependent on successfully running the ball. Consequently, we lost 3 of our last 4 to close out the regular season.

We ran the ball effectively against New Orleans and won, but the formula got proven once again by SF, who shut down our running game and kept our defense on the field for 40 minutes.

So while I love Dalvin Cook and marvel at what he brings to this offense when healthy, I just don't know how healthy he is going to be going forward. Is he worth extending? I'd say that depends on the price. I'd hate to lose Cook, but if his price is going to be in LeVeon Bell range, the answer has to be "no" IMO.

Here's the other thing. Gary Kubiak is famous for making 1,000 yard rushers out of practically thin air. Guys like Reuben Droughns and Justin Forsett came out of nowhere to put up huge numbers when Kubiak ran their offenses. Arian Foster down in Houston was undrafted and became a star under Kubiak. Does Kubiak really NEED a high-priced running back to succeed?

The Cook decision, while not immediate, may be the most difficult of all.

[J. Kapp 11]

Agreed I believe that is the case Kapp

Overthecap says it is void:

2020-2022 contract years void if Griffen gets 6 sacks or plays 57% of defensive snaps in 2019; if so he would become a free agent in 2020.

But I don't think it matters. Everson wanted that clause in his contract, why wouldn't he exercise it if it were his option?

He will void his deal/it will be voided but he may still cost less than 13 million next season to keep around. I just think 5 million is a bit unrealistic. Cameron Wake at age 37 signed a 3 year 23 million dollar deal last year coming of a 6 sack season.

You have to dig deeper.

Tom Peliserro and others reported at the time Griffen signed that it was a player option. This was a classic "bet on yourself" deal. Griffen figured if he could have a big year, he could opt out and command a big price. The key here is, what constitutes a big year? Eight sacks? I don't think so, and I'm guessing the rest of the league will agree.

That's why I think you'll see him back in purple at a reduced salary. For one thing, he's not likely to get big money on the open market. For another, he loves playing for Zimmer and the Vikings. His return is speculation on my part, of course, but it's informed speculation. He's made those remarks many times over the past few weeks, especially after the season ended.

[StumpHunter]

Overthecap says it is void:


But I don't think it matters. Everson wanted that clause in his contract, why wouldn't he exercise it if it were his option?

He will void his deal/it will be voided but he may still cost less than 13 million next season to keep around. I just think 5 million is a bit unrealistic. Cameron Wake at age 37 signed a 3 year 23 million dollar deal last year coming of a 6 sack season.

You have to dig deeper.

Tom Peliserro and others reported at the time Griffen signed that it was a player option. This was a classic "bet on yourself" deal. Griffen figured if he could have a big year, he could opt out and command a big price. The key here is, what constitutes a big year? Eight sacks? I don't think so, and I'm guessing the rest of the league will agree.

That's why I think you'll see him back in purple at a reduced salary. For one thing, he's not likely to get big money on the open market. For another, he loves playing for Zimmer and the Vikings. His return is speculation on my part, of course, but it's informed speculation. He's made those remarks many times over the past few weeks, especially after the season ended.

It could be poor wording on overthecap's part, but like I said, I don't think it matters. The current contract he is playing under will have no impact on his next one, since we can all agree we can't afford to pay him 13 million next season, and neither side has to adhere to that contract. Both the team and player can walk away with no recourse.

The one thing I am curious about, is if we can get a compensatory pick if Griffen does go elsewhere after voiding his deal. If that is the case, it was a brilliant move by Spielman and BZ.

[Pondering Her Percy]

I always like your offseason mock, PHP. It's an incredible amount of work, and you are to be commended for it.

Thanks Kapp! I appreciate it

I hope you're right and Kinlaw is available at 25. That would be huge. I just have serious doubts he'll fall that far. The guy is a monster, with the potential to be a lot like Aaron Donald -- great against the run, and able to wreak havoc on the pass rush.

Yeah I can see Kinlaw shooting up boards as well but I'm hoping he doesnt!

Cousins ... I think we're dealing with "a bird in the hand" here. Everybody who wants to move on from Cousins, I'll ask politely -- WHO? Who is going to replace him? Do you honestly believe Mike Zimmer is going to tank for Trevor Lawrence. Do you honestly believe Mike Zimmer would ever tank for anybody? So again, who replaces Cousins? You can say, "Blow it all up," but it still doesn't answer the question.

Exactly Kapp! The question is who? 1.) Cousins wont be replaced this year regardless 2.) if we dont extend him, we're almost forced to draft one early this year, which then eliminates addressing massive holes like DT, CB, LG and potential of others like LT, DE, S. 3.) Agreed, whether its Mike Zimmer or a different coach, they arent tanking with the current talent on this roster. No matter how much you blow up this roster, it's still at worst a 6-7 win team IMO. We have key cogs that will be going nowhere this year (Cousins, Cook, Mattison, Diggs, Thielen, Rudy, Irv, Oneill, Bradbury, Hunter, Barr, Kendricks, Hughes, Harry). Then adding in a new draft class and some free agents no less. Tanking with those guys on the roster and landing a high pick in 2021 is near impossible if you ask me. Barring something drastic happening. I honestly feel that it would be more difficult to tank with a roster like that than it would be to win a SB. Tanking is out of the cards. Simple as that. 4.) When we eventually draft a high QB, I personally want them sitting behind someone like Cousins for a year or so. Look at Mahomes/Alex Smith, Favre/Rodgers, etc. No less, we arent landing a top pick anytime soon with this roster so you arent getting a "top end QB" unless you trade up quite a ways. I dont want to have to throw a young QB into the fire with nobody to learn from. I dont want to have to start a rookie QB day 1 of his rookie year.

Without commenting on whether I think the Vikings SHOULD extend Cousins, I'll just say this ... I think they WILL extend Cousins. And PHP, you have done your mock with that assumption. I don't know whether your mock is a complete "this is what they SHOULD do," or if it's more "this is what they should do, along with what they're likely to do." I'm just saying ... it's likely that Cousins will be extended.

Agreed

Same with Cook. The Vikings believe he's a rare talent, perhaps generational, and frankly so does the rest of the league.

Whether he has been hurt or not, I think we need to extend him 100%. He's a rare talent. Just because he's gotten injured in the past doesnt mean that's always the case. I always use the example of Rudy early in his career compared to now.

Love the Bredeson pick in the third round. I honestly don't know much about Michigan this year, but I've actually heard Bredeson's name mentioned in some mocks, which must mean he's pretty good. Michigan linemen tend to be pretty good.

Yeah he's that "must-get" type player for me this year.

Not sure about Vaitai. You're obviously of the belief that he's better than Reiff, or at least more cost effective. I guess I'll just have to trust you on this one because I honestly don't know.

I mean PFF has Vaitai all over the place throughout his career. But they also have Reiff rated high through his whole career and they had Elflein rated well this year so it goes to show you how consistent PFF is when it comes to OL. I just liked Vaitai coming out of college and he's filled in well at RT and LT often for Philly. He's just simply buried on the Eagles roster.

Not sure about Darby either. Numbers aren't bad, but he's hurt a lot. He's only played 28 games the past three years. I think I'd rather have Waynes.

Same here Darby is more of a low risk high reward type player. I would 100% rather have Waynes but Waynes is probably going to cost a lot more than Darby will

[Pondering Her Percy]

Really enjoyable PHP, as always. Thanks for all the hard work.

Thanks man!

I think trading Rhodes might be difficult with his contract, but it's not like his talent just disappeared. I'm sure there is someone out there who believes they can get him back on track. (Zim probably believes that too I'm sure.)

I think it could be difficult too but I was honing in on which teams needed desperate help in terms of pass defense and who had a lot of cap. I then looked for guys on rosters like Houston, Miami, Tampa, Indy that interested me and filled a "need" for us. I think a team with plenty of cap room and a bad pass defense takes that chance.

I'm with Jim on the Cook extension. I would prefer they wait. 4 years, 30M isn't bad, and if he stays healthy, it could be a really good deal. I'm worried about his injury history though.

I mean he's a RB. Injuries are going to happen more often to him than others 99% of the time. I dont think blowing your knee out makes you injury prone. It's simply bad luck. Constant soft tissue injuries and such are what I see as injury prone. The hamstring in 2018 was worrisome but this year it simply had to do with how he was hit in the shoulder. Which comes with the position IMO.

Cutting Reiff scares me, because the situation could actually get worse. That's a really important decision for the Vikings. I'm not sure I understand your strong dislike for him though. He was not fantastic, but I don't think that he was a big problem either. Maybe your plan to fill his spot would be okay. It's just such a hard position to fill. The cap savings will likely drive the decision though, so seeing him gone would not be a surprise at least.

It scares me too but I've always said with Reiff, when he's bad, he's BAD. Like if you get any worse Kirk Cousins is going to be leaving on a stretcher. Like that bad. But there are other times you wont see him give up a sack. I've been pushing this since last year but I think putting Brian O'Neill at LT is a no brainer. He is young, athletic, an elite pass blocker, etc. We arent going to be picking high anytime soon to land a top LT in the draft and they rarely hit FA. Reiff on Cousins' blindside terrifies me. If he was at least on Cousins right side, Kirk can see the guy coming. Or we can simply go out and find a RT much easier than a left tackle. I just think keeping O'Neill at RT when you have an insanely slow footed LT that gets dominated by speed rushers, you arent doing yourself any favors. Put a guy on Kirk's blindside that he can trust.

[Mothman]

You know, it's hard to refute what you've said here.

Around Week 14 or 15, I started a thread asking whether we should be concerned at the slowdown in the Vikings rushing attack. Over the first 10 weeks of the season, we averaged 153 YPG on the ground, with only two games fewer than 100 yards. But over the next 5 games, we averaged just 85.8 YPG before our backups put up 174 to close out the season against the Bears. Meanwhile, Dalvin Cook rushed for 991 yards in the first 10 games, but only 144 yards the rest of the way (in four games, averaging just 36 YPG and 3.2 YPC). Yes, he was dinged up ... that's sort of the point.

Nobody seemed concerned. But I certainly was. As opponents schemed to stop Cook, they discovered the double bonus of a passing game that couldn't pick up the slack because it was dependent on successfully running the ball. Consequently, we lost 3 of our last 4 to close out the regular season.

We ran the ball effectively against New Orleans and won, but the formula got proven once again by SF, who shut down our running game and kept our defense on the field for 40 minutes.

So while I love Dalvin Cook and marvel at what he brings to this offense when healthy, I just don't know how healthy he is going to be going forward. Is he worth extending? I'd say that depends on the price. I'd hate to lose Cook, but if his price is going to be in LeVeon Bell range, the answer has to be "no" IMO.

Here's the other thing. Gary Kubiak is famous for making 1,000 yard rushers out of practically thin air. Guys like Reuben Droughns and Justin Forsett came out of nowhere to put up huge numbers when Kubiak ran their offenses. Arian Foster down in Houston was undrafted and became a star under Kubiak. Does Kubiak really NEED a high-priced running back to succeed?

That's an excellent point.

Good post. I agree, the decision about Cook is going to be difficult.

[CharVike]

You did a great job with this. It's tough getting to that type of detail. Some interesting FA signings. The Eagles appear to have a deep team. Signing that OT makes sense along with the CB. That DT would also be a good signing.That WR makes sense. We need a body. Having 2 and nothing just doesn't make much sense. However that Bisi WR has to be given some credit. The guy actually contributed which is a shock for a 7th rounder. Plus he plays a position that generally takes time. Your draft was pointed right were it should be. DL, OL and CB. I don't like that QB drafted because if a guy can't pass he's not a QB. The guys you have hitting the road is fine also. I don't think a team will trade for Rhodes. We can't get that lucky. But again good job and a good read for me. Thanks.