Vikes-Packers week (pregame)

[CharVike]

I think the real test for this defense and Anthony Harris in particular is how he does against an "uber-accurate, take no chances, I'll find an opening" type QB in Aaron Rodgers. If Harris gets at least one interception off of Rodgers, I think we win this game. If the defense gets at least two sacks on Rodgers, I think we win this game. If a fumble happens and the Vikings defense recovers... we win.

This is all going to matter for the defense. For the offense, Dalvin Cook is actually a ridiculously overpowered reciever against the Packers. Last year in their two games against the Pack, Dalvin's line was:

20 Rushes, 67 Yards, 3.35 YPR

and

6 Receptions, 99 Yards, 1 TD, 16.5 YPC

He will carry the load this year, and as long as he gets more than 10 Carrie's this game, he will find a hole to exploit. He will find a lane to run through, and when he does... he will slaughter all in his path.


For Kirk Cousins, his CAREER (which includes his Washington stint, and only accounts for Regular Season) stats against the Pack are absolutely phenomenal:

2-0-1 Against Aaron Rodgers

85/116, 1142 Yards, 10 TDs/1 INT, 73.3% COMP, 129.3 QBR


So if the offensive line is indeed improved, expect Cousins and Cook to completely kill that defense, which I still feel hasn't actually "improved"

I am not worried about our defense stopping Rodgers. I don't remember the Packer's receiving corp being this depleted since 2015 when that offense really struggled to score.

Hopefully Laflur doesn't play the same trick on Stephanski that he played on Nagy last week and get him to never run the football.

The Packers are one of 5 winning teams Cousins has beaten, but they have a brand new everything on the defensive side this year.

A brand new everything makes it much tougher. I just hope we get the ground game started. Last week it looked like a walk in the park. Almost too easy. That won't always be the case I know that. It's a hard game for us on the road. That's always tough.

[J. Kapp 11]

The two Packers weeks each year are the two weeks I have a really hard time staying rational. I hate the Packers, and I hate the Bears. I always say, my second favorite team is whoever is playing Green Bay, unless it's Chicago ... in that case, I hope they both lose.

So I'll try my best to be rational. I believe we win this game. We have the better roster, and we have the better defense. I don't care who they've added or what they've changed. Zimmer's defense returns 9 starters, and that's only if you count Andrew Sendejo as the starter last year ... Anthony Harris started basically the same amount of games. The other "newcomer" is Shamar Stephen for Sheldon Richardson, and I don't see that as a huge drop-off, especially against the run. The guys on Zimmer's defense know what they're doing in his system, and as long as Zimmer doesn't try to get cute (like he did against the Rams) I think our defense is going to make the day really miserable for Erin Rodgers.

Here's where I think we're particularly good on defense. Xavier Rhodes against Davante Adams.

I know, I know. Adams is a rising superstar, and Rhodes is supposed to be declining. But is he really? His 2018 completions allowed, yards allowed, touchdowns allowed, interceptions, yards-per-catch, and catch percentages were almost identical to his 2017 numbers. In 2017, Rhodes was a first team All-Pro. In 2018, he was considered on the downslide.

Against Rhodes last year, Adams caught 8 passes for 64 yards during the first game ... not exactly a win for Adams. Not only that, Rhodes allowed him ZERO catches in the fourth quarter and overtime. In the second game, Adams had 5 catches for 69 yards. Yes, Rhodes did allow a 36-yard completion late in the game to Adams, but then turned around and had a great pass-defended against Adams to force a field goal, and subsequently an onside kick that failed.

And all that was with Rhodes nursing a variety of injuries. This year, he's healthy, at least for now.

Therefore, I make Xavier Rhodes my "X" factor. See what I did there?

Add to that our improved offensive line, Dalvin Cook breaking out, and the fact that we've only had to throw 10 passes thus far, and I see this not only being a win, but by more than 1 score. I know it's Lambleau. I know their fans will be into the game. But don't be surprised if we take them out of the game.

The ONLY thing that scares me is the same thing that scares me every game with this team ... the kicking game. I don't care if we hit 56-yard bombs. Just make the kicks we're supposed to make.

Finally, look for Irv Smith Jr. to make some sort of statistical impact. He played great last week as a blocker but had zero receptions due to the Vikings playing as though it was 1946. I see that changing this week. If we throw, say, 25 times, at some point Smith's speed will take center stage.

[StpViking]

A fun game to watch but not really important in terms of overall impact.

Win or lose, neither team really gains that much this early into the season. However my early prediction is:

Vikings 24
Packers 17

Vikings start out strong and the Packers defense are caught off guard by the Kubiak play-action scheme. ARodge tries his hardest to come back in the 2nd half but falls short.

[fiestavike]

The two Packers weeks each year are the two weeks I have a really hard time staying rational. I hate the Packers, and I hate the Bears. I always say, my second favorite team is whoever is playing Green Bay, unless it's Chicago ... in that case, I hope they both lose.

So I'll try my best to be rational. I believe we win this game. We have the better roster, and we have the better defense. I don't care who they've added or what they've changed. Zimmer's defense returns 9 starters, and that's only if you count Andrew Sendejo as the starter last year ... Anthony Harris started basically the same amount of games. The other "newcomer" is Shamar Stephen for Sheldon Richardson, and I don't see that as a huge drop-off, especially against the run. The guys on Zimmer's defense know what they're doing in his system, and as long as Zimmer doesn't try to get cute (like he did against the Rams) I think our defense is going to make the day really miserable for Erin Rodgers.

Here's where I think we're particularly good on defense. Xavier Rhodes against Davante Adams.

I know, I know. Adams is a rising superstar, and Rhodes is supposed to be declining. But is he really? His 2018 completions allowed, yards allowed, touchdowns allowed, interceptions, yards-per-catch, and catch percentages were almost identical to his 2017 numbers. In 2017, Rhodes was a first team All-Pro. In 2018, he was considered on the downslide.

Against Rhodes last year, Adams caught 8 passes for 64 yards during the first game ... not exactly a win for Adams. Not only that, Rhodes allowed him ZERO catches in the fourth quarter and overtime. In the second game, Adams had 5 catches for 69 yards. Yes, Rhodes did allow a 36-yard completion late in the game to Adams, but then turned around and had a great pass-defended against Adams to force a field goal, and subsequently an onside kick that failed.

And all that was with Rhodes nursing a variety of injuries. This year, he's healthy, at least for now.

Therefore, I make Xavier Rhodes my "X" factor. See what I did there?

Add to that our improved offensive line, Dalvin Cook breaking out, and the fact that we've only had to throw 10 passes thus far, and I see this not only being a win, but by more than 1 score. I know it's Lambleau. I know their fans will be into the game. But don't be surprised if we take them out of the game.

The ONLY thing that scares me is the same thing that scares me every game with this team ... the kicking game. I don't care if we hit 56-yard bombs. Just make the kicks we're supposed to make.

Finally, look for Irv Smith Jr. to make some sort of statistical impact. He played great last week as a blocker but had zero receptions due to the Vikings playing as though it was 1946. I see that changing this week. If we throw, say, 25 times, at some point Smith's speed will take center stage.

I also think it remains to be seen just how well Rodgers and LaFleur are going to gel. The tension between the two might be media driven, but LaFluer has the reek of a guy in over his head, without the credibility to take on Aaron Rodgers in the media or in the locker room. Is he a puppet a la Jason Garret? If so, does the organization know it? Does LaFluer know it? There seem to be a lot of ways this could go wrong for them...and I hope they all come to fruition.

[J. Kapp 11]

A fun game to watch but not really important in terms of overall impact.

Win or lose, neither team really gains that much this early into the season. However my early prediction is:

Vikings 24
Packers 17

Vikings start out strong and the Packers defense are caught off guard by the Kubiak play-action scheme. ARodge tries his hardest to come back in the 2nd half but falls short.

I have to take issue with that statement.

It's a division game. First tie-breaker is head-to-head matchups, and second is record within the division. Plus, it's not like baseball where you're playing 162. There are only 16 games in a season, so every game counts.

Finally, it's a division ROAD game. Win this, and it puts us in a much better position down the road when the Packers come to US Bank Stadium.

[VikingLord]

A fun game to watch but not really important in terms of overall impact.

Win or lose, neither team really gains that much this early into the season. However my early prediction is:

Vikings 24
Packers 17

Vikings start out strong and the Packers defense are caught off guard by the Kubiak play-action scheme. ARodge tries his hardest to come back in the 2nd half but falls short.

I second Kapp's issue with the statement this is just another game.

In terms of win-loss or positioning within the division, you're correct that nothing material really comes from a the 2nd game of a 16 game season.

But, as we saw last year, every game counts. That tie in Green Bay last year was the difference between the Vikings making the playoffs and not making it. Granted, many other opportunities were missed that contributed to the final result, but if even one of those missed field goals were made in that tie, the Vikings make the playoffs. Every game counts, and wins on the road against divisional rivals count even more no matter when they happen in the course of a season.

Second, winning in Green Bay places the pressure square on the Packers later in the season when they come to Minnesota. If the Vikings win the matchup in Green Bay and the two teams are in contention for the division title and/or a playoff berth when the rematch comes around in Minnesota, Minnesota has the home field advantage at that point. That advantage could be great or it could be small, and its possible the game means nothing to one or both teams, but I'd much rather the Vikes head into that second game with as many advantages as possible.

[VikingLord]

I think the Vikings would be foolish to rely on their pass blocking in order to capitalize on opportunities through the air. They need to prioritize scheming to make those plays--play action, moving the pocket, bootlegs, quick reads, max protect--mix it up, but do not drop back to pass from the pocket 25 or 30 times. They need to do things to minimize the potential negatives on those plays. The team needs an identity, that identity needs to be suited to the roster, and the team needs to stick with that identity in order to make itself a tough out. If they go 'shootout' mode, I'll be somewhat disappointed even if they manage to win. If they emphasize run blocking, and defense, I'll be somewhat satisfied even if they lose. Its too early to put too much stock in outcome rather than process.

I'd also like to add, I believe Shamar Stephen is a big upgrade over Richardson, especially in the run game. I expect our front four to be a pretty difficult group to run on this year on 1st and 2nd down.

I'll be surprised if the Vikings go into "shootout mode" against the Packers. I expect a lot of play action with Cousins taking the majority of snaps from under center. I think they'll be able to do that as long as the running game is effective and the score stays close. I just don't think they can possibly remain as run-heavy as they managed against the Falcons. If they can, I will be extremely impressed.

I also expect the Packers to throw a lot of defensive looks and blitzes at the Vikings and Cousins, especially early and especially if they have a lead. They forced Trubisky to "play QB" last week, and they'll do the same to Cousins and the Vikings offensive line if the run game isn't effective.

I will be surprised if the Packers look much more effective on offense than they did against the Bears, and I say that not because I doubt their receivers, running backs, or offensive line, but because I doubt Rodgers. Heresy, I know. It seems accepted fact that Rodgers is a dominant QB. But Rodgers looked really off against the Bears, and that continued a trend that started last year. He's not the same QB anymore. I don't know what happened to him, but he's not reading the field the way he used to and not as accurate. His attitude also seems to be becoming worse and I'm not convinced he gets along well with his coaches. He expressed lots of discontent and noise during the offseason and while the Packers managed the win in Chicago, I'd be very interested to see how Rodgers starts to react if the Packers fall behind and he gets frustrated.

[YikesVikes]

I am worried about the oline. 4 pressures on 12 dropbacks is not a good sign. I really felt that Pat played very poor last game. Some of the washdown blocks by Bradbury were amazing. If we can get decent play from both guards, we win this. Laslty, a little bit worried about no slot cb. I doubt Mac plays.

[PurpleMustReign]

I am worried about the oline. 4 pressures on 12 dropbacks is not a good sign. I really felt that Pat played very poor last game. Some of the washdown blocks by Bradbury were amazing. If we can get decent play from both guards, we win this. Laslty, a little bit worried about no slot cb. I doubt Mac plays.

Mac was ruled out. Tha k God we didn't trade Waynes this off-season.

[CharVike]

I am worried about the oline. 4 pressures on 12 dropbacks is not a good sign. I really felt that Pat played very poor last game. Some of the washdown blocks by Bradbury were amazing. If we can get decent play from both guards, we win this. Laslty, a little bit worried about no slot cb. I doubt Mac plays.

Mac was ruled out. Tha k God we didn't trade Waynes this off-season.

I'm worried about the pass blocking also. 4 pressures on 12 dropbacks seems like a bad deal. But I don't know the stats. Mac being out isn't a good thing at all. That's why you need a deep secondary.

[Rhodes Closed]

https://mobile.twitter.com/VikingsPR/st ... 8718757888

Found this interesting little tweet here.

Since 2017, when we rush for 100 yards or more, we've been 18-1.

When we rush 25 times or more, we've been 19-0

[CharVike]

A fun game to watch but not really important in terms of overall impact.

Win or lose, neither team really gains that much this early into the season. However my early prediction is:

Vikings 24
Packers 17

Vikings start out strong and the Packers defense are caught off guard by the Kubiak play-action scheme. ARodge tries his hardest to come back in the 2nd half but falls short.

I have to take issue with that statement.

It's a division game. First tie-breaker is head-to-head matchups, and second is record within the division. Plus, it's not like baseball where you're playing 162. There are only 16 games in a season, so every game counts.

Finally, it's a division ROAD game. Win this, and it puts us in a much better position down the road when the Packers come to US Bank Stadium.

I agree it's very important. Road game against a team with a winning record. A division game to boot. Hope Zim isn't looking at it as win or lose.

[Pondering Her Percy]

I’m not gonna lie, I’m already sick of hearing the media blow up this packers team. They are acting like this defense is the next coming of the 85 bears. Yeah sure they played good week 1 but let’s be honest, trubisky was pathetic. And I don’t believe it was all because of that defense. I just don’t think trubisky is a good QB. I mean the Bears were 21st in total offense last year and were largely carried by their defense. It’s not like the packers just held the rams or chiefs to 3 points. It was the fricken bears.

No less I just about threw up when they gave Rodgers “player of the game” last week. He had 1 play that gained the majority of his yardage. He missed throws all night and threw a junk TD pass to jimmy graham. It disgusts me how much the media is obsessed with that team and Rodgers. They haven’t been relevant in a few years now and Zim is 5-1-1 against them since 2016.

In a way I’m glad we’re underdogs because we play better when that is the case.

My newborn son says 24-13 Vikes and I agree!

[Dmizzle0]

Idk. About you guys. But I get extra hyped every time we play the Packers. I really hope we dominate them on everything.

I really want to see how our offense handle business.

[Fran the Man]

I’m not gonna lie, I’m already sick of hearing the media blow up this packers team. They are acting like this defense is the next coming of the 85 bears. Yeah sure they played good week 1 but let’s be honest, trubisky was pathetic. And I don’t believe it was all because of that defense. I just don’t think trubisky is a good QB. I mean the Bears were 21st in total offense last year and were largely carried by their defense. It’s not like the packers just held the rams or chiefs to 3 points. It was the fricken bears.

No less I just about threw up when they gave Rodgers “player of the game” last week. He had 1 play that gained the majority of his yardage. He missed throws all night and threw a junk TD pass to jimmy graham. It disgusts me how much the media is obsessed with that team and Rodgers. They haven’t been relevant in a few years now and Zim is 5-1-1 against them since 2016.

In a way I’m glad we’re underdogs because we play better when that is the case.

My newborn son says 24-13 Vikes and I agree!

Congrats on the New Born!