VikingLord wrote:I'll go out on a limb here and say the only way the Vikes keep Keenum this year is if they franchise him. He had a great season and it's a QB-starved league. Someone will be willing to offer him a multi-year deal with enough up front to ensure he'll take the offer. So for the Vikings to keep him, they'd either have to match that up front or, if they're still not convinced he warrants a multi-year commitment, they're going to have to use the franchise tag on him. And if they did that, and I were his agent, I'd insist that one-year deal include a clause that prevents the Vikings from using the franchise tag on him the following year.
But here's my main problem with that - Keenum wasn't consistent enough to warrant either a long-term deal or the franchise tag. He had issues seeing and hitting open deep receivers, which cost the Vikings scoring opportunities, especially as the season went on. His accuracy was off at times. Some simple throws against Philly were horribly botched at a time when every easy throw had to be made. He had ball security issues that resulted in costly fumbles and interceptions, with the highlight being the duck he lobbed against Philly that resulted in a defensive score for the Eagles.
I'm not saying this was endemic or typified his season. He performed very well at times, but I keep wondering if people aren't looking at Keenum and his performance in relative terms (i.e. this guy was a 3rd-stringer playing under a minimum deal and look what he did!). If you look at him as simple starting QB, he looks less impressive, especially in the playoffs. If you look at him compared to other FA QBs who are looking for longer-term, larger deals and starting gigs, Keenum starts to look much less attractive, at least to me. He just hasn't done it at a high enough level long enough and for enough time for me to be sold that he belongs in the long-term commitment, NFL starting QB conversation.
I feel the same way about Bridgewater, albeit far less certain about his longer term viability as a starting QB (or even a backup, for that matter).
That really leaves the Vikings with a single on-roster option in Bradford, and while I understand the concerns about his knee holding up, he's also the only guy on the roster that is a guy defenses might be actually afraid of given his ability to sling the ball and his consistent mid and deep range accuracy. If Bradford is healthy and has time, he'll do to almost every defense what he did against the Saints to start the season, especially if he has a run/pass option with a healthy Dalvin Cook and he has TE's he trusts can get open and catch the ball.
Cousins would do well with the Vikings too for much the same reason.
Brees would probably make the Vikings Superbowl favorites heading into next season. I just don't see him leaving New Orleans.
I'm going to start off by agreeing with the premise that the only way Keenum comes back is on a multi-year deal or with the franchise tag. It really doesn't seem likely that we'll be able to get him for one year and any less than the franchise tag is worth - that would be pretty damn stupid of Keenum's agent to allow that to happen, so it's not likely. I don't think he can command much more than a Brock Osweiler type of deal where he makes around 15-18M over 3-4 years just because he's only had one good year, and I think that's an avenue that the Vikings should explore just because $23M on the tag is a pretty ridiculous amount of money even if it's non-commital. I'm hoping the Vikings can do something where they have some flexibility, maybe a 4 year deal that's more backloaded and where we won't get stuck paying him for 3.5 years if he poops the bed right away in year one. I'm not an expert on all of that stuff like and how it works, but I know that a lot of deals are structured that way, and a lot of times when extending someone who maybe isn't as effective as they were at the beginning of their contract, teams will restructure it in that way.
Also, I think it's a very strong chance that he does come back - I don't see many other good options out there. Sure, he's inconsistent and he does have some of the issues that you've mentioned, but what available QBs don't have that problem? Also, last year was the first year where he really had extensive weaponry surrounding him - this was the best Vikings offensive line that we've seen in years, probably since 2009 (neither were GREAT, for what it's worth), a really effective running back tandem with Murray and McKinnon, and of course Thielen/Diggs/Rudolph. When he was in Houston, his best receiver was probably still an aging Andre Johnson, I can't really remember what exactly they had, but they were struggling back then and it wasn't just him who was struggling. Finally, when he was in St. Louis it was kind of the same thing, they hadn't taken the step forward with their entire offense yet and they were still in the Jeff Fisher era, going 6-10, 7-9, 8-8, etc, etc, etc.
Bradford coming back just doesn't seem likely because of how poorly he played the last time we saw him on the field. He was totally outclassed by Keenum, who actually took the offense down the field against a scrappy but ultimately not very good Bears defense which makes me wonder if Bradford was even healthy going into this game or if Keenum just straight up outplayed him. I'm not sure how that will work for them, and I'm not even sure if right now you can even say that Bradford is better even if he can complete passes all over the field. Durability is pretty damn important, and Bradford hurts his knee a lot and always has going back to his college days. Also, the way Bradford was brought back for a game and benched for the remainder of the season after his poor play is eerily similar to what happened with Josh Freeman back in that infamous 2013 MNF game against the Giants. Bridgewater I think would be an excellent insurance policy, although it'd have to be a pretty team friendly deal because of how long it's been since he played and the fact that his injury was a pretty significant one. Brees just probably isn't going to happen, it's not like Favre where he said he wanted to play for us for over a year before we ended up snagging him.
In a nutshell: I like Keenum, I think we should bring him back maybe on a 3-4 year deal and while it is a risk, there isn't an option for us on the table right now that doesn't come without a pretty sizeable risk. Bradford, while talented, did not do well for us this year and Keenum took his spot even when he was presumably healthy.
