Playoff scenarios

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jackal
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Re: Playoff scenarios

Post by jackal » Mon Dec 18, 2017 10:20 am

Dam I wish we would have beat the panthers

Home field is pretty much lost now at some
Point. Maybe the Eagles glass slipper will fall
off and we will get our games at home. The giants
almost beat them and I think they might lose
in the playoffs.
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Re: Playoff scenarios

Post by cstelter » Mon Dec 18, 2017 10:54 am

Raptorman wrote: Two Clubs
Head-to-head, if applicable.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss.


Had the Rams beat the Eagles the Vikings would own the tiebreaker.
I think the problem is now NFC record and then common opponents. PHI is currently 10-1 and we are 8-2 against NFC. We need to win 2 games and PHI has to lose to DAL on the last game *just* to get past the third tie breaker. Then it goes to common games-- LAR, WAS, CAR, CHI are four common opponents. If we win out we are 4-1 against those while they are already 5-0 against them. So we need them to *also* lose to OAK.
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Re: Playoff scenarios

Post by cstelter » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:19 am

I think the Vikings are the only team left in the running for HFA and the only scenario for PHI to lose it it is the 2 PHI losses + 2 MIN victories scenario.

Win 2 and we have the 1st round bye and a 25% chance of HFA if you count Eagles have a 50-50 chance of beating each OAK and DAL.

As long as we win at least 1 game, we're safe from NO, and LAR coming up to beat us out for a first round bye, but if CAR can win their division, that's the one scenario where 1 win will not be enough to insure a bye.

GB is a big game for a first round bye, not strictly must win, but if we lose, we will no longer control our own destiny toward a 1st round bye.

I think we can clinch the 1st round bye next week with a win over GB and CAR losing to TB.

If CAR keeps winning and we drop one of the next 2, then we really need CAR to lose the division to NO, so I'll also be rooting for NO over Atlanta.

Lose the final two, we still get to host a wildcard game. I suppose if NO loses one, LAR loses one and CAR loses 2 we could still get a 2nd round bye. NO or ATL wins the south in that scenario, so we have tie breaker over them and would have it over LAR.

We still control our own destiny-- take care of business and nothing else matters-- we will get a first round by and at least a couple shots at hosting the NFCC.
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Re: Playoff scenarios

Post by PurpleMustReign » Mon Dec 18, 2017 12:34 pm

I think we xcan lose next week and as long as CAR loses we are ok. We have tie breakers over everyone else.

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Re: Playoff scenarios

Post by w_huisman » Mon Dec 18, 2017 1:09 pm

I think the most likely way this plays out is that we end up the 2 seed, but play every playoff game at home because the Eagles lose in the first round.
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Re: Playoff scenarios

Post by cstelter » Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:00 pm

w_huisman wrote:I think the most likely way this plays out is that we end up the 2 seed, but play every playoff game at home because the Eagles lose in the first round.
That will most likely require one of the south teams going into PHI and winning, no? In that scenario we could well play 2 more home games against NFC South teams to get to the big game. Unless LAR drops one of the last two and falls behind a south team for the #4 seed. Then it's up to them to go into PHI. I like LAR's chances of beating PHI at PHI better than NO/ATL/CAR, but we'll cross that bridge if it comes to be.
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Re: Playoff scenarios

Post by TSonn » Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:05 pm

jackal wrote:Dam I wish we would have beat the panthers

Home field is pretty much lost now at some
Point. Maybe the Eagles glass slipper will fall
off and we will get our games at home. The giants
almost beat them and I think they might lose
in the playoffs.
I think getting home field throughout the playoffs as the #2 seed is the most likely scenario since the Eagles don't play many tough teams week 16/17 but will most likely play ATL, NO, or CAR in the divisional round.
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Re: Playoff scenarios

Post by PurpleMustReign » Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:20 pm

I think people are really underestimating Philly. They are a good team. They had a bad game against Eli Manning. That doesn't mean they are a bad team.

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Re: Playoff scenarios

Post by TSonn » Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:28 pm

PurpleMustReign wrote:I think people are really underestimating Philly. They are a good team. They had a bad game against Eli Manning. That doesn't mean they are a bad team.

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I think CAR and ATL win in PHI.
I think PHI would win against NO or LA or anyone else who makes the playoffs from the NFC.
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Re: Playoff scenarios

Post by Rieux » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:18 pm

The sort of complicated/interesting possibility here is if the Vikings go 1-1 in their remaining games, giving the Rams, Saints, and Panthers a shot at winning out and tying them. Amusingly (well, *I* think it's amusing), in any 3- or 4-way tie among those teams, the Vikings win. The only tie in which the Vikings would lose out on tiebreakers is a specifically 2-way tie with Carolina. As a result, as long as Minnesota can win one out of two from Green Bay and Chicago, they'll have the #2 seed unless Carolina wins out and both New Orleans and L.A. lose at least one game.

Looking at those teams' remaining schedules, it appears to me that both the Saints (home to Atlanta, at Tampa Bay) and Rams (at Tennessee, home to San Francisco) should probably be favored to win out. The Panthers have an easy Week 16 game at home vs. Tampa Bay (which is not good for the Vikings' chances of clinching the bye next week), but their Week 17 tilt at Atlanta looks tougher than any game that the Vikings, Rams, or Saints have remaining on their respective schedules.
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Re: Playoff scenarios

Post by mansquatch » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:22 pm

NFC S all beat on each other the next two weeks. No clear dominant team there IMO.

Philly barely squeezed by a pathetic Giants club this week. They are not dominant. Same thing with their win over LAR. Goff put up 35 points on them. (He only scored 7 on us.)

Philly Defense hasn't proved itself against good QB, the best QBs it's faced are Eli Manning and Russel Wilson. Wilson ate them. Manning lit them up yesterday.

In the playoffs one of 5 QBs will likely be going up there to face them: If could be Goff, Ryan, Brees, Newton, or Wilson. Of those 5, their defense has only shut down Newton, the worst passer of the bunch. Wilson put up big numbers on their defense as did Goff. Ryan and Brees, whom they have not faced, are the best passers in the bunch. So it is likely that defense will face the best QB it has seen all year in the divisional round of the playoffs.

There is no guarantee that as the top seed the NFCCG will be played in Philadelphia. It is entirely possible that one of those NFC S teams come out of there with a victory. Especially without Wentz playing.

Not to be arrogant, but the Vikings are best team in the NFC right now. The media just doesn't want to admit it. The only proven dominant defense in the NFC is the Vikings. (SEA has too many people on IR.) The NFC S will likely send 3 teams to the playoffs and we've already beaten 2 of them. We crushed the Rams as well. Only team we haven't played is Philly. If we play CAR again, it is likely they we play them at home.

Consider that it is entirely possible that on Wildcard weekend of the 4 teams playing we'll have beaten 3 of them.
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Re: Playoff scenarios

Post by S197 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:48 pm

If the Vikings and Philly win, and Panthers lose, the game against the Bears is meaningless. Even though it would suck to lose the #1 seed, it might be nice to be able to rest starters and give Teddy a game to knock off the rust.

Honestly, if the Vikings lose the next two, they don't deserve the #2 seed.
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Re: Playoff scenarios

Post by J. Kapp 11 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 5:28 pm

mansquatch wrote:Not to be arrogant, but the Vikings are best team in the NFC right now. The media just doesn't want to admit it.
Dude, I was listening to Colin Cowherd's show today. (Why? I have no idea. It was sports radio, I guess, and I'm a sucker for controversial radioheads.)

He was opining that the Patriots likely will win the AFC because they're the Patriots and Belichick always finds a way, even when they're flawed.

Then he started talking about the NFC contenders, and why he thinks each of them would fall short against the Patriots. He talked about the Eagles, and that he can't trust Nick Foles. He talked about the Rams being "the most talented roster in the NFL" but too young. He talked about the Panthers and how inconsistent Cam Newton is. He talked about the Saints being very young on defense. He even talked about the stupid Falcons.

He never, ever mentioned the Minnesota Vikings. Not once. I mean, if you're going to run down each contender, why would you ignore the No. 2 seed? Especially the No. 2 seed that would be playing the Super Bowl AT HOME should they make it!

This is almost comical. Every major news outlet is completely overlooking this team. In some ways, it's good. Zimmer will use that as motivation. But as a fan, it sucks to sit there and watch show after show offer nothing about the Vikings.
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Re: Playoff scenarios

Post by Crax » Mon Dec 18, 2017 6:03 pm

J. Kapp 11 wrote: This is almost comical. Every major news outlet is completely overlooking this team. In some ways, it's good. Zimmer will use that as motivation. But as a fan, it sucks to sit there and watch show after show offer nothing about the Vikings.
I live in Utah which means I almost never hear anything on sports radio locally about the Vikings, but the espn affiliate here plays Golic and Wingo(Formerly Mike and Mike show) in the mornings. They spent a fair amount of time talking about the Vikings and Bridgewater and some about possibilities of playing in their home stadium on the show today.

Hour 4: Ryan Clark: 12/18/17 on this link http://www.espn.com/espnradio/play?id=21804399
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Re: Playoff scenarios

Post by dead_poet » Mon Dec 18, 2017 6:16 pm

Tossing this nugget here: Packers re-signed QB Joe Callahan. Might be a sign that if Atlanta wins they shut Rodgers down.
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