Offensive Optimism: They might be better than you think...

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Re: Offensive Optimism: They might be better than you think

Post by CbusVikesFan »

Jim, let's keep believing that they know what they're doing until they prove us right. Or wrong. :D
Both sides of the ball are going to have to be better. There have been upgrades at many positions and it will be interesting to see how it all plays out. For me having the QB position pretty solid makes me hope for the best.
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Re: Offensive Optimism: They might be better than you think

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CbusVikesFan wrote:Jim, let's keep believing that they know what they're doing until they prove us right. Or wrong. :D
You're right... but it's SO hard to trust! :tongue:
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Re: Offensive Optimism: They might be better than you think

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Mothman wrote:I'm equally curious to see how the defense will perform. The default assumption seems to be they're "great" and their post-bye performance was due to a lack of rest. Personally, that doesn't add up for me. The Vikings were average in terms of time of possession so does lack of rest due to the offense's performance really explain the difference between a hot start in which the defense allowed an average of about 12.5 points in 5 games (which actually IS great) and an average of about 22 points per game allowed after the bye? I doubt it's that simple.
Obviously we don't know all the reasons for the defense's falloff, but I wonder if some of it could be attributed to the defense getting fed up with the offense's lack of productivity.

That would be a coaching issue, of course, but when I read about the stuff going on in Seattle and all the problems they're having with the defense being resentful of the offense, It does make me wonder whether something similar (hopefully not as severe) went on in the Vikings' locker room.

The biggest difference, to me, is Zimmer. Pete Carroll is loathe to ever call out anybody on the team for doing something wrong, so when Seattle's offense was putting up 6 first downs and he wouldn't say anything to light a fire under Russell Wilson or the offense, the defense got pretty resentful. Zimmer doesn't seem to have a problem calling anybody out (quite the opposite, if you believe Rhett Ellison's dad) but an inept offense could certainly demoralize a good defense.

As much as we'd like to make these guys into robots because of their high salaries, they're human. They get angry and fed up with each other. It SHOULDN'T demoralize a defense, but it could.

Don't even know if it's what I think. Just a "theory of the crime."
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Re: Offensive Optimism: They might be better than you think

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J. Kapp 11 wrote:Obviously we don't know all the reasons for the defense's falloff, but I wonder if some of it could be attributed to the defense getting fed up with the offense's lack of productivity.

That would be a coaching issue, of course, but when I read about the stuff going on in Seattle and all the problems they're having with the defense being resentful of the offense, It does make me wonder whether something similar (hopefully not as severe) went on in the Vikings' locker room.

The biggest difference, to me, is Zimmer. Pete Carroll is loathe to ever call out anybody on the team for doing something wrong, so when Seattle's offense was putting up 6 first downs and he wouldn't say anything to light a fire under Russell Wilson or the offense, the defense got pretty resentful. Zimmer doesn't seem to have a problem calling anybody out (quite the opposite, if you believe Rhett Ellison's dad) but an inept offense could certainly demoralize a good defense.

As much as we'd like to make these guys into robots because of their high salaries, they're human. They get angry and fed up with each other. It SHOULDN'T demoralize a defense, but it could.

Don't even know if it's what I think. Just a "theory of the crime."
It's a worthy point. It had to be frustrating for the defense at times.
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Re: Offensive Optimism: They might be better than you think

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J. Kapp 11 wrote: Obviously we don't know all the reasons for the defense's falloff, but I wonder if some of it could be attributed to the defense getting fed up with the offense's lack of productivity.

That would be a coaching issue, of course, but when I read about the stuff going on in Seattle and all the problems they're having with the defense being resentful of the offense, It does make me wonder whether something similar (hopefully not as severe) went on in the Vikings' locker room.

The biggest difference, to me, is Zimmer. Pete Carroll is loathe to ever call out anybody on the team for doing something wrong, so when Seattle's offense was putting up 6 first downs and he wouldn't say anything to light a fire under Russell Wilson or the offense, the defense got pretty resentful. Zimmer doesn't seem to have a problem calling anybody out (quite the opposite, if you believe Rhett Ellison's dad) but an inept offense could certainly demoralize a good defense.

As much as we'd like to make these guys into robots because of their high salaries, they're human. They get angry and fed up with each other. It SHOULDN'T demoralize a defense, but it could.

Don't even know if it's what I think. Just a "theory of the crime."
To ME the demise of the defense can be linked to how teams started playing against them. IE Running the ball more and more. Without Floyd helping in the middle of the line teams ran the ball down the Vikings throats far too much and forcing 8-9 in the box while taking away from the more complex secondary coverages Zim likes to play.

Of course the offense played its part too but imo poor run D was their ultimate undoing.

If, and I believe WHEN this years offense is better and more explosive it will go a long way in getting the D back to where they play best, rushing the passer and playing strong coverage behind their rush BUT they need to find answers at DT to consistently shut down the run as well.
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Re: Offensive Optimism: They might be better than you think

Post by Maelstrom88 »

I think the offense can be considerably better if Cooks is as good as advertised. The tackles should be ok in a Shurmur led offense that gets the ball out FAST. I don't think they will be explosive but I think they can be a top 15 offense which combined with a nasty defense would be formidable.
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Re: Offensive Optimism: They might be better than you think

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Maelstrom88 wrote:I think the offense can be considerably better if Cooks is as good as advertised. The tackles should be ok in a Shurmur led offense that gets the ball out FAST. I don't think they will be explosive but I think they can be a top 15 offense which combined with a nasty defense would be formidable.

Watch this vide but pay CLOSE attention to the down & distance on each throw: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFeW546kDWo

Ironically one of the very few "2nd and manageables" you will see is the play action slant to Diggs for 50 yards vs GB. FAR TOO MANY passes come on 2nd and 12, 3rd and 24, 2nd and 16, 3rd and 27 and 2nd and 10.

The 2016 OL combined with all those long yardage down and distances was a recipe for disaster. It's a miracle Bradford didn't throw 20+ ints and/or end up on IR.

I have a lot of faith that Cooks and Murray + the new "decent" tackles are going to put Sam in a LOT more favorable situations this season. Plus I believe the Ohio St kid is a stud and will be a day 1 starter inside as well.

This offense has great potential.
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Re: Offensive Optimism: They might be better than you think

Post by PurpleMustReign »

I was surprised at how poor the run defense was, really since Pat Williams retired. They can rush the QB better than any other team, but ask them to tackle a RB and they were almost clueless.

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Re: Offensive Optimism: They might be better than you think

Post by 808vikingsfan »

PurpleMustReign wrote:I was surprised at how poor the run defense was, really since Pat Williams retired. They can rush the QB better than any other team, but ask them to tackle a RB and they were almost clueless.

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Looking at the stats, yes they were great against the run for a few years, but look at the pass defense. There's only been a couple of years where both were in the top 15. Hopefully, this year will be one of them.

Code: Select all

Year   Run D(ypg)            Pass D(ypg)
2004     20                  29        
2005     19                  22
2006     1                   31
2007     1                   32
2008     2                   20
2009     1                   14
2010     9                   10
2011     11                  26
2012     10                  23   
2013     16                  32
2014     24                  10 
2015     17                   7  
2016     19                   3 

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Re: Offensive Optimism: They might be better than you think

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[quote="808vikingsfan"]Looking at the stats, yes they were great against the run for a few years, but look at the pass defense.[quote]

It's worth looking at other stats to put that in some perspective. For example, in the years Childress was head coach, the run defense was so formidable that teams often just looked to the air. In 4 of those 5 seasons, the Vikings had either the fewest rushing attempts against them or the second fewest and the reason for that is evident in the yards per carry averages they allowed. During those 5 seasons, they were ranked 1, 2, 1, 5 and 5 in that category, respectively. That run defense encouraged teams to pass, which is particularly evident in 2006 and 2007.

Of course, even with the addition of the stats below, the numbers and rankings don't gives us a complete picture.

PAA = Passing attempts against
RAA = Rushing attempts against
The number in parentheses is the league ranking.
For example, just to be clear regarding the stats below, in 2006 they had the most passes attempted against them and the fewest rushes attempted against them. They were the 12th best team in the league in average yards allowed per passing attempt and the best team in the league in average yards allowed per rushing attempt.
2006
PAA: 599 (#1)
RAA: 348 (#32)
League ranking in average YPA: #12 (6.7)
League ranking in average YPC: #1 (2.8 )

2007
PAA: 646 (#1)
RAA: 379 (#29)
League ranking in average YPA: #16 (7.0)
League ranking in average YPC: #2 (3.1)

2008
PAA: 530 (#11)
RAA: 371 (#31)
League ranking in average YPA: #21 (7.1)
League ranking in average YPC: #1 (3.3)

2009
PAA: 535 (#15)
RAA: 357 (#32)
League ranking in average YPA: #20 (7.1)
League ranking in average YPC: #5 (3.9)

2010
PAA: 529 (#19)
RAA: 357 (#32)
League ranking in average YPA: #9 (6.7)
League ranking in average YPC: #5 (3.9)

2011
PAA: 538 (#16)
RAA: 439 (#14)
League ranking in average YPA: #30 (8.1)
League ranking in average YPC: #6 (3.9)

2012
PAA: 612 (#3)
RAA: 427 (#17)
League ranking in average YPA: #10 (6.8 )
League ranking in average YPC: #7 (4.0)

2013
PAA: 648 (#2)
RAA: 443 (#12)
League ranking in average YPA: #23 (7.5)
League ranking in average YPC: #12 (4.0)

2014
PAA: 534 (#28)
RAA: 450 (#8)
League ranking in average YPA: #14 (7.1)
League ranking in average YPC: #19 (4.3)

2015
PAA: 561 (#17)
RAA: 411 (#19)
League ranking in average YPA: #15 (7.2)
League ranking in average YPC: #21 (4.3)

2016
PAA: 548 (#22)
RAA: 404 (#19)
League ranking in average YPA: #2 (6.6)
League ranking in average YPC: #16 (4.2)

The last 3 years have been the worst over that entire span in terms of average yards allowed per carry. There's definitely some work to do there.
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Re: Offensive Optimism: They might be better than you think

Post by J. Kapp 11 »

Mothman wrote:
Nice work here. Thanks for all the research.

Here's what the positive is for me. In today's NFL, a good defense needs to be stout against the pass. It can't be a sieve against the run, but middle of the pack or better against the run can get it done as long as your pass defense is excellent, which ours is.

That being said, I totally agree with you, Jim. There's plenty of work to be done against the run, and if they can somehow make significant strides, THEN we can talk about the defense being "elite." And an elite defense will at least get you into the playoffs most years.

Here's what concerns me, though. The interior defensive linemen the Vikings have acquired this offseason, namely Sutton and Jones, are considered pass-rushing tackles. And Jaleel Johnson is a rookie, so who knows what we're getting there? This staff seems to be in love with pass rushers.

It sounds SO WEIRD to say, but as of now, the Vikings are the exact opposite of their personality during the Childress years: Average against the run and absolutely putrid at running the ball on offense. If we can somehow get to average on rushing offense and even slightly above average on rushing defense, say top-12, then I believe the playoffs are almost a given. Seeing as how we've only made the playoffs once in the past four years, I'll take it.
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Re: Offensive Optimism: They might be better than you think

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J. Kapp 11 wrote:Here's what the positive is for me. In today's NFL, a good defense needs to be stout against the pass. It can't be a sieve against the run, but middle of the pack or better against the run can get it done as long as your pass defense is excellent, which ours is.

That being said, I totally agree with you, Jim. There's plenty of work to be done against the run, and if they can somehow make significant strides, THEN we can talk about the defense being "elite." And an elite defense will at least get you into the playoffs most years.
Especially if paired with a good running game, which you addressed below.
Here's what concerns me, though. The interior defensive linemen the Vikings have acquired this offseason, namely Sutton and Jones, are considered pass-rushing tackles. And Jaleel Johnson is a rookie, so who knows what we're getting there? This staff seems to be in love with pass rushers.
It certainly seems that way and from what I've read, Johnson fits more into that mold, although I guess we'll see what he brings to the table soon enough. It seems to me Zimmer's defense is very much built to defend the pass and play with a lead.
It sounds SO WEIRD to say, but as of now, the Vikings are the exact opposite of their personality during the Childress years: Average against the run and absolutely putrid at running the ball on offense. If we can somehow get to average on rushing offense and even slightly above average on rushing defense, say top-12, then I believe the playoffs are almost a given. Seeing as how we've only made the playoffs once in the past four years, I'll take it.
I definitely want to see them in the postseason again and it would be nice to see them actually win in postseason again too. Above everything else, I think the offense really has to start scoring TDs more often. I know it's an obvious but ultimately, that's far more more important than improving yardage totals. The Vikings offense scored 29 TDs in 2014 and 2016 and 32 in 2015. Averaging 2 offensive TDs a game or less is just not cutting it. It puts too much pressure on the defense to actually be elite.
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Re: Offensive Optimism: They might be better than you think

Post by 808vikingsfan »

Mothman wrote:It's worth looking at other stats to put that in some perspective. For example, in the years Childress was head coach, the run defense was so formidable that teams often just looked to the air. In 4 of those 5 seasons, the Vikings had either the fewest rushing attempts against them or the second fewest and the reason for that is evident in the yards per carry averages they allowed. During those 5 seasons, they were ranked 1, 2, 1, 5 and 5 in that category, respectively. That run defense encouraged teams to pass, which is particularly evident in 2006 and 2007.

Of course, even with the addition of the stats below, the numbers and rankings don't gives us a complete picture.
Good points.

Mothman wrote:The last 3 years have been the worst over that entire span in terms of average yards allowed per carry. There's definitely some work to do there.
Another important stat for a defense is scoring. If you keep the opposition out of the end zone, the yards don't matter much. The Vikings have been ranked 5th the past two years in defensive scoring, its best ranking since 1988. That's almost 30 years.


Found this:
In 2001, when New England won its first Super Bowl, the Patriots ranked 19th in the NFL on offense and 24th on defense. They ranked near the bottom of the league in yards per pass attempt and in getting their quarterback sacked. They ranked near the bottom of the league in field position after kickoffs, giving their opponents a 3.1-yard edge. They did rank among the league leaders in red zone defense, but the rest of their numbers were mediocre.
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Re: Offensive Optimism: They might be better than you think

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808vikingsfan wrote:Another important stat for a defense is scoring. If you keep the opposition out of the end zone, the yards don't matter much. The Vikings have been ranked 5th the past two years in defensive scoring, its best ranking since 1988. That's almost 30 years.
I think they actually finished 6th last year but that doesn't diminish your point. After all, as you pointed out, the points matter more than the yards.
Found this:
A team certainly doesn't need to be highly-ranked on offense or defense to win it all. The 2012 Ravens were ranked in the middle of the pack on both offense and defense but as a team, they were formidable enough to go 10-6 and win the Super Bowl.

As both of those examples illustrate, season rankings in any category only tell us so much, especially since football games often comes down to matchups, coaching, etc. and a team can start a season hot and go cold or start poorly, get hot at the right time and make a postseason run. Dynamics like that aren't reflected clearly in a seasons totals for yards, points allowed, etc.
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Re: Offensive Optimism: They might be better than you think

Post by Nunin »

games are often won or lost on just a few plays, as well.
Once a team gets into the playoffs anything can happen.
A dominant defense or offense can have an off game game wind up losing to a team that is statistically inferior but has gelled at the right time.
Making the playoffs is the crux. Kicking butt in the division is the key IMO.
You can often toss stats out in division games. It usually comes down to gameplan and making plays...or not, as in cases of missed FGs etc.
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