2017 Vikings Free Agency Signings Thread

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S197
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Re: 2017 Vikings Free Agency Signings Thread

Post by S197 »

How does his hit rate compare to the league? I'd imagine for most teams you're not walking out of a draft with more than 3 long term guys very often.

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Re: 2017 Vikings Free Agency Signings Thread

Post by Mothman »

S197 wrote:How does his hit rate compare to the league? I'd imagine for most teams you're not walking out of a draft with more than 3 long term guys very often.
I don't know how it compares to the rest of the league but the Vikings don't appear to be getting close to that "3 long term players" mark in most of the past 6 seasons. It's too early to tell in more recent seasons, of course, but other than 2015, early indications aren't great.

From the 2011 draft, only Kyle Rudolph and Brandon Fusco made it to a second contract with the team and Fusco is already gone after performing poorly in basically ever season after signing that second deal.

From 2012, only Harrison Smith and Jarius Wright (who was then quickly buried at the bottom of the depth chart so he may not last much longer).

From 2013, Rhodes is probably a lock to get a second deal. The only other player who appears to have a shot at a second contract with the team is Floyd and after last year, he may be on shaky ground.

After that, we get into more recent territory and it's harder to say what the future will bring. From 2014, Barr seems very likely to make it to a second deal. I think the only other players from that draft with a shot are Stephen, Bridgewater and McKinnon. I wouldn't bank on either of the latter of getting a second contract with the Vikings. Stephen might and McKinnon's not out of the question. Who knows with Bridgewater but it seems pretty unlikely.

As I've already indicated above, the Vikings 2015 class looks promising at this point (although so did the 2012 class at one time), with Waynes, Kendericks, Hunter and Diggs.

So far, there's been almost nothing about the team's 2016 draft that's encouraging but hopefully, that will change this year.
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Re: 2017 Vikings Free Agency Signings Thread

Post by Rhodes Closed »

I'm not gonna defend Spielman here, because that would be pointless, but I looked up what was thought of him from a couple seasons past and it's pretty interesting. According to USAToday (which if you want to believe them or not, go ahead), he was the 8th ranked GM overall.

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2016/04/ranking ... l-managers

Not only that, last year, according to the Vikings home site, they led the NFL in Draft retention under Rick Spielman.

http://www.vikings.com/news/article-1/V ... 6296bb1341

In 2015, NFL had him ranked 8th out of 10 in Active GM's with best record of Pro Bowl drafted players (10.34% of all draft picks (or 3 players)). Take it for what you will, I dunno.

http://www.nfl.com/photoessays/0ap3000000481490


This was just from looking around though, maybe you guys could find better articles.
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Re: 2017 Vikings Free Agency Signings Thread

Post by Mothman »

Rhodes Closed wrote:I'm not gonna defend Spielman here, because that would be pointless, but I looked up what was thought of him from a couple seasons past and it's pretty interesting. According to USAToday (which if you want to believe them or not, go ahead), he was the 8th ranked GM overall.
Just to be clear, I focused on Spielman's drafts because but they're most relevant to the current state of the team but my main point in this case isn't to criticize him. It's to point out, as I stated a few posts up, that the Vikings simply need to hit on more picks, period. I mean that last word as an indication that regardless of who's doing the scouting, drafting, developing, etc., they team simply needs more success in this area.

It takes time to see how a draft will play out but if we just consider the first 3 drafts after Childress departed, the Vikings selected 29 players in those 3 years, 6 in the first round. Those 6 first round picks were:

Christian Ponder
Matt Kalil
Harrison Smith
Sharrif Floyd
Xavier Rhodes
Cordarrelle Patterson

After 6 years or less, only 3 of those players are still on the roster. If I'm not mistaken, only 5 of the 29 players drafted between 2011-2013 are still on the roster in 2017 (Smith, Floyd, Rhodes, Wright and Rudolph). Several just departed this year but we're talking about drafts 4-6 years old and only about 17% of the players drafted are still Vikings. Wright's the only player not chosen in the first or second round to make it this far. Three of the remaining 4 players were first round picks.

It seems like they have to do better than that if they're going to build a championship team.

I should add that when I say "hit on picks", I mean they need more players to make it to a second Vikings contract and become valuable long term contributors to a quality team.
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Re: 2017 Vikings Free Agency Signings Thread

Post by Rhodes Closed »

The second part of my post specifically said though the Vikings lead the league in draft retention under Spielman.
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Re: 2017 Vikings Free Agency Signings Thread

Post by fiestavike »

Mothman wrote: Just to be clear, I focused on Spielman's drafts because but they're most relevant to the current state of the team but my main point in this case isn't to criticize him. It's to point out, as I stated a few posts up, that the Vikings simply need to hit on more picks, period. I mean that last word as an indication that regardless of who's doing the scouting, drafting, developing, etc., they team simply needs more success in this area.

It takes time to see how a draft will play out but if we just consider the first 3 drafts after Childress departed, the Vikings selected 29 players in those 3 years, 6 in the first round. Those 6 first round picks were:

Christian Ponder
Matt Kalil
Harrison Smith
Sharrif Floyd
Xavier Rhodes
Cordarrelle Patterson

After 6 years or less, only 3 of those players are still on the roster. If I'm not mistaken, only 5 of the 29 players drafted between 2011-2013 are still on the roster in 2017 (Smith, Floyd, Rhodes, Wright and Rudolph). Several just departed this year but we're talking about drafts 4-6 years old and only about 17% of the players drafted are still Vikings. Wright's the only player not chosen in the first or second round to make it this far. Three of the remaining 4 players were first round picks.

It seems like they have to do better than that if they're going to build a championship team.

I should add that when I say "hit on picks", I mean they need more players to make it to a second Vikings contract and become valuable long term contributors to a quality team.
Probably worth pointing out that changing coaches every few years contributes to a lack of draft success and retention pretty dramatically. The criteria Childress sought is probably different from those Frazier was looking for, which were also different from the traits that Zimmer is looking for (same for Bevell/Mugsgrave/Turner/Shurmur). A guy who might have been successful under Zimmer, might have been a failure under Childress, etc. etc. Continuity is very underrated in my opinion.

Also, if your GM is on the same page with coach x, but not on the same page with coach y, you are likely to have better draft results under coach x.

Lastly, if coach x seeks criteria which generally don't correlate to NFL success as strongly as the criteria being sought by coach y, that could also change the success rate of drafted players.

Long story short, there are way more variables than can be considered with a simplistic attempt to gauge whether Spielman is good or bad by how many players are busts or stars. I think you basically have to measure how well he and Zimmer are able to work together and just leave it at that for the time being. Until last year I would have given them pretty high marks, but last year really was alarming. Retaining Shurmur is also alarming. I don't think this is or has been a well run organization in my lifetime, and if they don't turn the corner soon, Zimmer and Spielman will both be gone...but it will still be a poorly run organization.
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Re: 2017 Vikings Free Agency Signings Thread

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fiestavike wrote:Probably worth pointing out that changing coaches every few years contributes to a lack of draft success and retention pretty dramatically. The criteria Childress sought is probably different from those Frazier was looking for, which were also different from the traits that Zimmer is looking for (same for Bevell/Mugsgrave/Turner/Shurmur). A guy who might have been successful under Zimmer, might have been a failure under Childress, etc. etc. Continuity is very underrated in my opinion.
I agree. That's an excellent point. Injuries play a role in how a draft class works out too.
Long story short, there are way more variables than can be considered with a simplistic attempt to gauge whether Spielman is good or bad by how many players are busts or stars.


I agree with that too but again, just in case it's not 100% clear, that's not what I'm attempting to do. The point here is that the Vikings have to do a better of drafting, developing and retaining players. I'm not just talking about stars and busts either. That may have already been clear to you. I don't know. I'm just trying to reinforce it before this topic degenerates into another "is Spielman good or bad?" discussion.
I think you basically have to measure how well he and Zimmer are able to work together and just leave it at that for the time being.
It's too soon to determine that in regard to drafting, developing and retaining players beyond their first contract. How things pan out with the 2014 class will be our first strong indication. Barr, Bridgewater, McKinnon and Stephen remain from that class. How many of those players so we think are likely to get a second contract with the team?
Until last year I would have given them pretty high marks, but last year really was alarming. Retaining Shurmur is also alarming. I don't think this is or has been a well run organization in my lifetime, and if they don't turn the corner soon, Zimmer and Spielman will both be gone...but it will still be a poorly run organization.
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Re: 2017 Vikings Free Agency Signings Thread

Post by Mothman »

Rhodes Closed wrote:The second part of my post specifically said though the Vikings lead the league in draft retention under Spielman.
They did but that doesn't really address the point I'm trying to make here (and it's also information that may already be out-of-date since a number of players from recent drafts just left the team).

I don't think looking at how many players the team drafted are on the roster is a good way to measure how effectively the team is drafting and developing players. Having a high percentage of players the team has drafted can be indicative of different things. I think looking at how many drafted players perform well enough that the team prioritizes keeping them and signs them to a second deal is probably a better indication of how well drafting/developing efforts are working. After all, the idea over the long haul is to draft, develop and retain a very strong core of players. There's always going to be some turnover but in terms of team-building, the team wants to find players worth keeping and then keep them, right?

For example, I certainly don't think the idea when drafting 6 first round picks in 3 years was for at least 50% those players to end up playing elsewhere after their rookie contracts.
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Re: 2017 Vikings Free Agency Signings Thread

Post by YikesVikes »

My biggest issue with The Spielman is this obsession with 6th round picks that tend to do very little for us. He coverts having 8+ draft picks and jumps for joy when the 8th pick is an extra 6th.
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Re: 2017 Vikings Free Agency Signings Thread

Post by S197 »

I think you need to look at it holistically, which means not just looking at the draft. Linval, Tom Johnson, Thielen, Munnerlyn, Newman, etc. were all good pickups. I think the Board would be in relative agreement that they've done a good job defensively and a below average job offensively. Give or take a few notches depending on your individual view.

For the offense, the problem starts at O-line. Kalil was a very high 1st rounder who didn't pan out as well as everyone had hoped but when you look at that year, he was the best pick. Blackmon, Trent Richardson, Mo Claiborne, were all much bigger busts. Same with Loadholt, I recall a few wanted to take him in the 1st and while he was never great, he was decent but injuries halted his career early. Same with Mike Harris. Sully was a decent late round pick up. Yes, Spielman has missed on a number of picks in mid-round guys so this is an area that needs improvement.

At receiver, there's no denying Diggs and Thielen were major steals. Unfortunately, higher picks like Patterson haven't panned out and Treadwell's success remains to be seen. I also want to point out Mike Wallace had himself a pretty good season down in Baltimore so that FA pickup may not have been a bad one, just his skills couldn't be utilized.

Then there's the QB position. Teddy is a tough one because who can predict something like that? Bradford's success remains to be seen. Then there's CP. Now, lets not forget that the year Ponder was drafted was a very atypical NFL season. There was NO free agency. The season itself was an unknown. That being said, I will say that Ponder in part was a pick necessitated by not having a contingency for Favre earlier.

Spielman has had his snafus but when I look at it, I don't think his hit rate has been all that bad in the 1st. This is how I see it:

Adrian Peterson (enough said)
Jared Allen (via trade but again, enough said)
Percy Harvin (character issues killed his career but he did win ROY)
Ponder (discussed above)
Kalil (discussed above)
Harrison (clearly a hit)
Floyd (miss)
Rhodes (hit)
Patterson (miss)
Barr (I would categorize him as a hit)
Teddy (I'm going to not count him yet)
Waynes (Neutral to positive)
Treadwell (For the purposes of this discussion, miss)

Like I said, I don't know what the average hit rate is around the league but that doesn't look bad to me at all.
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Re: 2017 Vikings Free Agency Signings Thread

Post by YikesVikes »

You made some points that are hard to dispute. However, we must remember that we have had an unusual number of 1st round picks in the last few years. Something like 7 in 4 years or something similar. He should have nothing but hits.
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Re: 2017 Vikings Free Agency Signings Thread

Post by Pondering Her Percy »

S197 wrote:I think you need to look at it holistically, which means not just looking at the draft. Linval, Tom Johnson, Thielen, Munnerlyn, Newman, etc. were all good pickups. I think the Board would be in relative agreement that they've done a good job defensively and a below average job offensively. Give or take a few notches depending on your individual view.

For the offense, the problem starts at O-line. Kalil was a very high 1st rounder who didn't pan out as well as everyone had hoped but when you look at that year, he was the best pick. Blackmon, Trent Richardson, Mo Claiborne, were all much bigger busts. Same with Loadholt, I recall a few wanted to take him in the 1st and while he was never great, he was decent but injuries halted his career early. Same with Mike Harris. Sully was a decent late round pick up. Yes, Spielman has missed on a number of picks in mid-round guys so this is an area that needs improvement.

At receiver, there's no denying Diggs and Thielen were major steals. Unfortunately, higher picks like Patterson haven't panned out and Treadwell's success remains to be seen. I also want to point out Mike Wallace had himself a pretty good season down in Baltimore so that FA pickup may not have been a bad one, just his skills couldn't be utilized.

Then there's the QB position. Teddy is a tough one because who can predict something like that? Bradford's success remains to be seen. Then there's CP. Now, lets not forget that the year Ponder was drafted was a very atypical NFL season. There was NO free agency. The season itself was an unknown. That being said, I will say that Ponder in part was a pick necessitated by not having a contingency for Favre earlier.

Spielman has had his snafus but when I look at it, I don't think his hit rate has been all that bad in the 1st. This is how I see it:

Adrian Peterson (enough said)
Jared Allen (via trade but again, enough said)
Percy Harvin (character issues killed his career but he did win ROY)
Ponder (discussed above)
Kalil (discussed above)
Harrison (clearly a hit)
Floyd (miss)
Rhodes (hit)
Patterson (miss)
Barr (I would categorize him as a hit)
Teddy (I'm going to not count him yet)
Waynes (Neutral to positive)
Treadwell (For the purposes of this discussion, miss)

Like I said, I don't know what the average hit rate is around the league but that doesn't look bad to me at all.
Good post. Only one I question is Floyd. This was the only year he missed significant time. Prior to that he missed 5 games in 3 years. Reason I'm saying this is if we classify him as a miss, you could've said the same thing regarding Rudy a few years back even though he was a 2nd rounder. Because of the injuries. I've compared Floyd and Rudy in the past because they had similar careers in their first 4 years. Floyd is definitely a good player when healthy. So was Rudy. But they couldn't stay healthy. Now Rudy has stayed healthy which is promising. Overall, I would say the jury is still out on Floyd. Because if he CAN get healthy, he's a huge help. Just like Rudy has been. It's not like Floyd was a bad player or a first round bust. He's good. Just didnt stay healthy. Overall, good post. I would just classify Floyd as more neutral than anything. People like to write him off just like they did Rudy and I don't really find that fair. This is why I didnt want to just dump him this year because he is a guy that could go somewhere else and burn us.
Last edited by Pondering Her Percy on Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2017 Vikings Free Agency Signings Thread

Post by Pondering Her Percy »

YikesVikes wrote:Something like 7 in 4 years or something similar. He should have nothing but hits.
And he wasnt far off. Out of those 7 (Kalil, Smith, Floyd, Rhodes, CP, Barr and Teddy), Thats not too bad. Kalil WAS a very good player until injuries. Floyd was the same way. CP never panned out offensively and Teddy got a freak injury. I mean none of these guys coming out of college were necessarily "injury prone" or coming off a major injury. It was out of Spielmans control. I would say out of all of them, CP was probably the only TRUE miss. When healthy, Kalil was a pro bowl player. When healthy, as explained above, Floyd is a good player. And when healthy, Teddy looked promising. I feel like some on here don't take injuries into consideration with these picks. They just like to say miss, miss, miss. Not trying to make up excuses but lets be honest, they were good players before the injuries. It's not like they were Ponders and just bad players. They were solid contributors outside of CP like I said.
Last edited by Pondering Her Percy on Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2017 Vikings Free Agency Signings Thread

Post by Mothman »

S197 wrote:I think you need to look at it holistically, which means not just looking at the draft


In terms of the team's overall performance when it comes to comes to player personnel, I agree but we were specifically discussing the draft.
Spielman has had his snafus but when I look at it, I don't think his hit rate has been all that bad in the 1st. This is how I see it:

Adrian Peterson (enough said)
Jared Allen (via trade but again, enough said)
Percy Harvin (character issues killed his career but he did win ROY)
Ponder (discussed above)
Kalil (discussed above)
Harrison (clearly a hit)
Floyd (miss)
Rhodes (hit)
Patterson (miss)
Barr (I would categorize him as a hit)
Teddy (I'm going to not count him yet)
Waynes (Neutral to positive)
Treadwell (For the purposes of this discussion, miss)
Like I said, I don't know what the average hit rate is around the league but that doesn't look bad to me at all.
It doesn't look great to me in terms of what I was discussing earlier, which is about players who the Vikings are drafting, developing and then retaining beyond their first contract to become core players. Taking Allen out (since he was an established player acquired in a trade), of the 12 other players you listed only Peterson and Smith have played for the team beyond their rookie contract so far. Four of them (Ponder, Kalil, Patterson and Harvin) weren't retained beyond their first contract. In other words, they didn't develop to become part of the team's core. Of the remaining 5 players, Rhodes is almost a lock to get a second deal and join Smith as a core player. Barr's chances are good too, especially if he bounces back from a slightly disappointing season. It's too early to have a solid read on what the future will hold for Treadwell or Waynes but both Bridgewater and Floyd appear to be on very shaky ground when it comes to getting past their rookie contracts with the Vikings to become core players for the team.

There's a good chance over 50% of the first round picks of the Spielman era won't even make it to a second contract with the team and there haven't been enough quality finds in subsequent rounds, although there have been some.

This team needs more success with their draft picks than they've had in the past decade. They've had some bad luck with injuries but that doesn't change the bottom line: they need more picks to work out if they're going to become a perennial contender.
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Re: 2017 Vikings Free Agency Signings Thread

Post by Cliff »

I know I'm not really part of the discussion but I absolutely think trades for players in the draft should count when considering how the Vikings did in a given draft. It's still the value that was earned via draft picks. Otherwise, in the case of Allen for example, it's as if the team never had a 1st round pick that year. If you discount those players it can make a given draft look a lot worse than it really was.

Allen being established doesn't mean him playing well is a given. He had character issues, etc. He could have easily been a "bust". Just as Bradford could end up being a "bust" for this year's first. You're still basically drafting with that pick, you're just drafting a player already in the league. Whether they preform well, how long they stay with the team, etc. These are all still considerations when thinking about the value that the team got for a given pick.

Of course if the conversation is about how the team is doing at developing a player that's one thing. If we're talking draft value, that's another.

My two cents on that particular bit.
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