That might be a small factor, but watching the plays and watching Peterson its obvious there is more at play than what the defense is doing. Peterson stinks at running out of the shotgun, he has no feel for it.Mothman wrote: Exactly! At long last, somebody who gets it. Thank you.
2017 Vikings Free Agency Signings Thread
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Re: 2017 Vikings Free Agency Signings Thread
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Re: 2017 Vikings Free Agency Signings Thread
It's not a small factor, it's a significant factor, as was the quality of the passing game.fiestavike wrote:That might be a small factor, but watching the plays and watching Peterson its obvious there is more at play than what the defense is doing. Peterson stinks at running out of the shotgun, he has no feel for it.
He's probably never run out of the formation enough to get truly comfortable in it but the idea that he has no feel for it or can't do it effectively is something that emerged during the Zimmer era when, not coincidentally, the offense was predictable, the line has been pretty-to-very ineffective and the QB play in games Peterson has played has been... ahem, less than scary to opposing defenses.
Peterson's rushing numbers from the shotgun prior to 2014:
83 for 407 (4.9 ypc)
48 for 78 (1.625 ypc)
Gee, what happened?
With that, I'm probably done. I doubt I can change any minds on this.
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Re: 2017 Vikings Free Agency Signings Thread
Listen I dont think anyone was more predictable during the Frazier era than Bill Musgrave. He was just as predictable as Turner. Peterson's problem is, he would take the handoff and almost come to a complete stop before hitting a hole. Under center, he had a 7 yard burst that had him heading right towards the hole already. He danced too much at the line when he ran out of the gun. You're right, you probably arent changing anyones mind. He just wasnt effective enough to say so out of the gun. He didnt fit this offense anymore. We arent a ground and pound team anymoreMothman wrote: It's not a small factor, it's a significant factor, as was the quality of the passing game.
He's probably never run out of the formation enough to get truly comfortable in it but the idea that he has no feel for it or can't do it effectively is something that emerged during the Zimmer era when, not coincidentally, the offense was predictable, the line has been pretty-to-very ineffective and the QB play in games Peterson has played has been... ahem, less than scary to opposing defenses.
Peterson's rushing numbers from the shotgun prior to 2014:
83 for 407 (4.9 ypc)
48 for 78 (1.625 ypc)
Gee, what happened?
With that, I'm probably done. I doubt I can change any minds on this.
The saddest thing in life is wasted talent and the choices you make will shape your life forever.
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Re: 2017 Vikings Free Agency Signings Thread
With a better power running scheme and a better line. It's the combination of factors I was getting at, not just one. Look at the numbers below. The drop-off under Zimmer is precipitous. Other than 5 carries from the shotgun for -4 yards in his rookie year, he'd never averaged less than 3.5 ypc out of the shotgun and in several seasons he averaged over 5 ypc. Then suddenly, under Zimmer, he averaged 2.1 ypc or less. That powerfully suggests outside factors rather than just Peterson himself as the main reason for the poor rushing numbers out of the gun.Pondering Her Percy wrote:Listen I dont think anyone was more predictable during the Frazier era than Bill Musgrave. He was just as predictable as Turner.
2007: 5 for -4
2008: 9 for 85; 9.4 ypc
2009: 7 for 28; 4.0 ypc
2010: 15 for 75; 5.0 ypc
2011: 7 for 26; 3.7 ypc
2012: 12 for 42; 3.5 ypc
2013: 28 for 155; 5.5 ypc
2014: 4 for 5; 1.3 ypc
2015: 36 for 56; 1.6 ypc
2016: 8 for 17; 2.1 ypc
When an accomplished runner is dancing at the line it's usually because there's nowhere to go.Peterson's problem is, he would take the handoff and almost come to a complete stop before hitting a hole. Under center, he had a 7 yard burst that had him heading right towards the hole already. He danced too much at the line when he ran out of the gun.
You keep bringing that up as if i don't grasp it. I haven't been arguing that he would be a good fit for a shotgun-heavy offense.You're right, you probably arent changing anyones mind. He just wasnt effective enough to say so out of the gun. He didnt fit this offense anymore. We arent a ground and pound team anymore
I guess I wasn't quite done after all.
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Re: 2017 Vikings Free Agency Signings Thread
Go back to 2015 and you can use an almost identical "gee, what happened?" stat breakdown to prove that Asiata and McKinnon are better out of the gun. I don't particularly care about the stat breakdown, because I can watch Peterson suck at running out of the shotgun with my own eyes. He lacks vision and understanding of what they are trying to accomplish.Mothman wrote: It's not a small factor, it's a significant factor, as was the quality of the passing game.
He's probably never run out of the formation enough to get truly comfortable in it but the idea that he has no feel for it or can't do it effectively is something that emerged during the Zimmer era when, not coincidentally, the offense was predictable, the line has been pretty-to-very ineffective and the QB play in games Peterson has played has been... ahem, less than scary to opposing defenses.
Peterson's rushing numbers from the shotgun prior to 2014:
83 for 407 (4.9 ypc)
48 for 78 (1.625 ypc)
Gee, what happened?
With that, I'm probably done. I doubt I can change any minds on this.
BUT, I would like to know where you found that statistic, because I'm pretty sure it is not accurate. so far through 12 game logs pre 2014 Peterson has 4 carries out of the shotgun for a total of 10 yards and a fumble. He hasn't had more than 1 carry from the shotgun in any of the games I've reviewed. I'm pretty sure that to get to 83 they must be including his receptions out of the shotgun formation because its very unlikely he managed 151 carries out of the shotgun during his career, or 83 before 2014. If the stat is accurate the number is likely skewed by most of those carries coming on 3rd and long.
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Re: 2017 Vikings Free Agency Signings Thread
fiestavike wrote:BUT, I would like to know where you found that statistic, because I'm pretty sure it is not accurate.
Most of the numbers are from ESPN's game splits for peterson. They were missing info by formation for a few of his early seasons so that info came from profootballreference.com.
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Re: 2017 Vikings Free Agency Signings Thread
Thanks.Mothman wrote:
Most of the numbers are from ESPN's game splits for peterson. They were missing info by formation for a few of his early seasons so that info came from profootballreference.com.
The bottom line for me is that I can watch it and know he's not good at it. If someone else can watch it and come to a different conclussion I'm happy to leave that as a simple disagreement, because frankly, there's nothing left to discuss at that point. Statistical justification for one position or the other is either superfluous or misleading IMO.
None of That takes away from what he is good at, or from my appreciation for what he does well. I think you and I agree on the style of play we prefer and I'm not excited about the offensive direction of the Vikings (or the NFL for that matter) but given what the Vikings are going to do offensively, its obvious to me that he's not a fit.
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Re: 2017 Vikings Free Agency Signings Thread
It's been so limited across his career it's pretty hard to judge. He never broke 15 shotgun runs an entire season outside of two years. Even worse, 2014 was a lost season for him. So was last year where he played 3 games. So between the 2014 and 2016 season, he played in 4 total games. 2 of them (GB and Indy) he only played about half the game if that. So all in all you're looking at about 3 total games in two years. And a whopping 12 carries out of the gun in those contests. Pretty hard to judge if you ask me. 3 games, 12 carries. Not much to work with there. 2015 is the only one you can really use since Zimmer has been hereMothman wrote:
With a better power running scheme and a better line. It's the combination of factors I was getting at, not just one. Look at the numbers below. The drop-off under Zimmer is precipitous. Other than 5 carries from the shotgun for -4 yards in his rookie year, he'd never averaged less than 3.5 ypc out of the shotgun and in several seasons he averaged over 5 ypc. Then suddenly, under Zimmer, he averaged 2.1 ypc or less. That powerfully suggests outside factors rather than just Peterson himself as the main reason for the poor rushing numbers out of the gun.
2007: 5 for -4
2008: 9 for 85; 9.4 ypc
2009: 7 for 28; 4.0 ypc
2010: 15 for 75; 5.0 ypc
2011: 7 for 26; 3.7 ypc
2012: 12 for 42; 3.5 ypc
2013: 28 for 155; 5.5 ypc
2014: 4 for 5; 1.3 ypc
2015: 36 for 56; 1.6 ypc
2016: 8 for 17; 2.1 ypc
So there is often somewhere to go when the QB is under center but rarely ever anywhere to go when operating out of the gun?? You can tell he doesnt have the patience for it. He's not that kind of back. He's a get it and go type RB. Look at the patience Leveon Bell has when running out of the gun. It's easy to sit here and point at the finger at the OL because I know that's what youre implying.When an accomplished runner is dancing at the line it's usually because there's nowhere to go.
All in all, either our OL in 2015 was really good blocking from under center since he ran for 1400+ yards last year and terrible blocking out of the gun OR Adrian Peterson is great running from under center and very ineffective running out of the gun. I'll take the latter on this one.
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Re: 2017 Vikings Free Agency Signings Thread
Totally agree with Siesta (again.....what's going on around here??lol). That style of offense is certainly not flashy or exciting but if we can generate wins.....then hey I'm all in.fiestavike wrote:
None of That takes away from what he is good at, or from my appreciation for what he does well. I think you and I agree on the style of play we prefer and I'm not excited about the offensive direction of the Vikings (or the NFL for that matter) but given what the Vikings are going to do offensively, its obvious to me that he's not a fit.
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Re: 2017 Vikings Free Agency Signings Thread
I think that's a pretty potent observation because frankly (as we all know) the line was terrible in 2015Pondering Her Percy wrote:
All in all, either our OL in 2015 was really good blocking from under center since he ran for 1400+ yards last year and terrible blocking out of the gun OR Adrian Peterson is great running from under center and very ineffective running out of the gun. I'll take the latter on this one.
It really hasn't been good at any point in Adrian Peterson's Vikings career, and yet he managed to put up great numbers, even with Christian Ponder, Tarvaris Jackson, and (Bad) Brett Favre 2.0 providing the counter balance in the passing game. That doesn't even get into the state of the defense under Childress and Frazier. It was an incredible achievement from a dominant runner
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Re: 2017 Vikings Free Agency Signings Thread
Well they must've been good enough run blockers. Yeah Adrian Peterson was a great RB but you dont just rattle of 1400 yards year after year if the line is as bad as you say it is. Pass blocking doesnt transfer to run blocking.fiestavike wrote: I think that's a pretty potent observation because frankly (as we all know) the line was terrible in 2015
It really hasn't been good at any point in Adrian Peterson's Vikings career, and yet he managed to put up great numbers, even with Christian Ponder, Tarvaris Jackson, and (Bad) Brett Favre 2.0 providing the counter balance in the passing game. That doesn't even get into the state of the defense under Childress and Frazier. It was an incredible achievement from a dominant runner
And as for his whole career, I completely disagree that his OL wasnt good. In 2009, their OL was McKinnie, Hutchinson, Sullivan, Herrera and Loadholt. That is a pretty good offensive line. He had that OL for a few years I believe. I know everyone wants to rip Spielman for "ignoring the OL" but lets be realistic here. That OL was good earlier in his career. I would say it started to tail off right around 2013-2014. Practically right around the time we had to start rebuilding our entire defense
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Re: 2017 Vikings Free Agency Signings Thread
Right, which is why, when the team tries to run out of a passing formation and the defense keys on the runner anyway, that poor blocking becomes an even bigger issue. Most running plays are blocked like running plays. Running plays from the gun tend to be draw plays which rely on deception and if the defense doesn't buy that deception, the play's chances for success are significantly diminished, especially when the line is bad in the first place.fiestavike wrote: I think that's a pretty potent observation because frankly (as we all know) the line was terrible in 2015
That seems obvious to me and it's been obvious on film too.
Agreed.It really hasn't been good at any point in Adrian Peterson's Vikings career, and yet he managed to put up great numbers, even with Christian Ponder, Tarvaris Jackson, and (Bad) Brett Favre 2.0 providing the counter balance in the passing game. That doesn't even get into the state of the defense under Childress and Frazier. It was an incredible achievement from a dominant runner
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Re: 2017 Vikings Free Agency Signings Thread
Add screens to this as well. When two Lbs are following your RB on each play, no screen can be sucessful.
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Re: 2017 Vikings Free Agency Signings Thread
Once again, the whole OL being bad for his whole career is false. I just proved that.Mothman wrote: Right, which is why, when the team tries to run out of a passing formation and the defense keys on the runner anyway, that poor blocking becomes an even bigger issue. Most running plays are blocked like running plays. Running plays from the gun tend to be draw plays which rely on deception and if the defense doesn't buy that deception, the play's chances for success are significantly diminished, especially when the line is bad in the first place.
That seems obvious to me and it's been obvious on film too.
Agreed.
The saddest thing in life is wasted talent and the choices you make will shape your life forever.
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Re: 2017 Vikings Free Agency Signings Thread
You'll need to take that up with FiestaVike. I was agreeing with the overall thrust of his last paragraph, that what Peterson has done as a Viking is an incredible achievement from a dominant runner. He's faced difficult circumstances but I don't think he's been running behind bad lines for his entire career. I don't think he's ever had the opportunity run behind a great one but some of those lines were quite good at run blocking. Pass blocking was never really a strength during that period.Pondering Her Percy wrote:Once again, the whole OL being bad for his whole career is false. I just proved that.