Why TJ Clemmings slipped in the draft

[AllDay]

I was curious to see why Clemmings fell so far in the draft and this article brought up some interesting points.

I thought it was just the injury to the foot, but I guess there was more to it.

Link: http://walterfootball.com/ws2015tjclemmings.php

[Mothman]

Thanks for the link. They reached the same conclusion some of us did: Clemmings is a project and while he could prove to be a great fourth round value if he reaches his full potential,he doesn't appear to be a first, or even second round-caliber prospect that fell all the way to the Vikes in the 4th.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: the actual order in which players are selected by NFL teams during the draft says as much, if not more, about their perceived value as the pre-draft predictions from fans and the media.

As for Clemmings himself, hopefully, like some past mid-round picks by the Vikings, he'll develop into a quality starter.

[IIsweet]

Yep, these guys are professional scouts etc. they go to extremes to search a player. Odd how we as casual fans, mind you educated fans, still get upset with some picks and cannot believe we took this guy instead of that one.
It's fun to mock, etc, but gotta trust them.

[Pondering Her Percy]

Thanks for the link. They reached the same conclusion some of us did: Clemmings is a project and while he could prove to be a great fourth round value if he reaches his full potential,he doesn't appear to be a first, or even second round-caliber prospect that fell all the way to the Vikes in the 4th.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: the actual order in which players are selected by NFL teams during the draft says as much, if not more, about their perceived value as the pre-draft predictions from fans and the media.

As for Clemmings himself, hopefully, like some past mid-round picks by the Vikings, he'll develop into a quality starter.

I see what you're saying but a big reason he fell wasn't because of his ability, it was because of his injury. His ability is better than the 4th round IMO. If he was healthy, I would be a betting man that he goes a lot earlier than the 4th. Maybe not the first but maybe so. Either way, without that foot injury, he's at least a 2nd-3rd round talent IMO. Especially from what I have seen on tape

[Demi]

He was...who we thought he was...

[Jordysghost]

He was...who we thought he was...

Did you let him off the hook?

[Mothman]

I see what you're saying but a big reason he fell wasn't because of his ability, it was because of his injury. His ability is better than the 4th round IMO. If he was healthy, I would be a betting man that he goes a lot earlier than the 4th. Maybe not the first but maybe so. Either way, without that foot injury, he's at least a 2nd-3rd round talent IMO. Especially from what I have seen on tape

The injury can't be taken out of the equation, especially because it's an old injury. It's part of the "overall "package and consequently, affects his value in the eyes of NFL teams.

Every year, fans and "gurus" rank more players as early round talents than could possibly fit in those early rounds. Some of those players are simply being ranked too highly in comparison with the value NFL teams are placing on them.

[fiestavike]

The injury can't be taken out of the equation, especially because it's an old injury. It's part of the "overall "package and consequently, affects his value in the eyes of NFL teams.

Every year, fans and "gurus" rank more players as early round talents than could possibly fit in those early rounds. Some of those players are simply being ranked too highly in comparison with the value NFL teams are placing on them.

Also, opinions vary even among experts and scouts. Some teams may have had a 1st round grade on Clemmings but red flagged him because of injury. From the article you posted in another thread, for example, it seems clear not everyone had a 1st round grade on Erick Flowers.

In addition to this there is a herd mentality that has to be factored in. This probably impacts "experts" the most since their opinions are all made public, and it becomes a sort of echo chamber. I imagine there is more variance among teams rankings than there are among "experts".

I think the bottom line is that these guys are not in some calcified, hard and fast order. Fans are inclined to see a stark stratification between round grades and then between individual players. I bet it gets pretty difficult to stratify players 30, 60, 100 players into the draft! How different teams separate those players probably varies greatly. It seems like in this draft the Vikings placed higher emphasis on upside. Other teams are probably looking for solid contributors. Again the article you posted in another thread was interesting in how some teams emphasize players from particular schools because of their technical proficiency. I think Spielman may have used this approach a lot during the Frazier years (and another player from Notre Dame!).

[Mothman]

Also, opinions vary even among experts and scouts. Some teams may have had a 1st round grade on Clemmings but red flagged him because of injury. From the article you posted in another thread, for example, it seems clear not everyone had a 1st round grade on Erick Flowers.

In addition to this there is a herd mentality that has to be factored in. This probably impacts "experts" the most since their opinions are all made public, and it becomes a sort of echo chamber. I imagine there is more variance among teams rankings than there are among "experts".

Excellent point.

I think the bottom line is that these guys are not in some calcified, hard and fast order. Fans are inclined to see a stark stratification between round grades and then between individual players. I bet it gets pretty difficult to stratify players 30, 60, 100 players into the draft! How different teams separate those players probably varies greatly. It seems like in this draft the Vikings placed higher emphasis on upside. Other teams are probably looking for solid contributors. Again the article you posted in another thread was interesting in how some teams emphasize players from particular schools because of their technical proficiency. I think Spielman may have used this approach a lot during the Frazier years (and another player from Notre Dame!).

Again, well said. That article you mentioned also indicated that some teams emphasize players from specific schools because of how they feel regarding the coaches at those schools, which makes sense. It's clear that many variables factor into how teams rank and draft players so, as you said perfectly, there's not some calcified, hard and fast order. Value is subjective and likely varies from team to team based on the particular criteria they use to evaluate players. It's possible that, as Mike thinks, Clemmings was a 2nd-3rd round talent in the eyes of some teams and those teams simply selected players they liked better. However, a lot of talented players last until R4 and many of NFL starters have come out of the 4th round so it's not exactly a slight to say a player is a fourth round talent or to be selected at that stage of the draft.

[John_Viveiros]

Did you let him off the hook?

Thanks for the reminder of more interesting times.
Coaching rants

[Vikings28]

The injury can't be taken out of the equation, especially because it's an old injury. It's part of the "overall "package and consequently, affects his value in the eyes of NFL teams.

Every year, fans and "gurus" rank more players as early round talents than could possibly fit in those early rounds. Some of those players are simply being ranked too highly in comparison with the value NFL teams are placing on them.

I agree but I'm still surprised at how much discrepancy there was. Look at Mayock as an example, he has had his misses like everyone else but he's probably the most respected draft "expert" out there. He also bases his mock draft and rankings on not only what he sees on film but also on what his team sources tell him. He had Clemmings ranked 33rd overall in his final rankings. Daniel Jeremiah, a former NFL scout, also had him in that range based on what he saw on film.

These guys are pretty smart people. I understand if they overrated someone because of lies they were told during the draft process or because there was some medical issue they didn't know about but I'd be surprised if they just missed that badly based on film alone.

[Mothman]

I agree but I'm still surprised at how much discrepancy there was. Look at Mayock as an example, he has had his misses like everyone else but he's probably the most respected draft "expert" out there. He also bases his mock draft and rankings on not only what he sees on film but also on what his team sources tell him. He had Clemmings ranked 33rd overall in his final rankings. Daniel Jeremiah, a former NFL scout, also had him in that range based on what he saw on film.

These guys are pretty smart people. I understand if they overrated someone because of lies they were told during the draft process or because there was some medical issue they didn't know about but I'd be surprised if they just missed that badly based on film alone.

I think it's inevitable that will happen due to the nature of the draft. Even a dedicated draft expert like Mayock sees a limited amount of film on most players and he probably can't match the level of scouting and analysis a team puts together. Evaluating and ranking players is a subjective process so, like anybody, he's going to have a personal set of biases that influence his choices, he'll make mistakes, rate players too high or too low in comparison to where teams have them, where they're drafted, etc. Ditto for Jeremiah, Kiper and all of the other draft gurus out there. Everybody gets it wrong at times, including the teams, so this could be a case where Clemmings fell to the 4th and ends up playing like the 33rd best player in the draft or it could be the opposite. We'll see!

[S197]

I agree but I'm still surprised at how much discrepancy there was. Look at Mayock as an example, he has had his misses like everyone else but he's probably the most respected draft "expert" out there. He also bases his mock draft and rankings on not only what he sees on film but also on what his team sources tell him. He had Clemmings ranked 33rd overall in his final rankings. Daniel Jeremiah, a former NFL scout, also had him in that range based on what he saw on film.

These guys are pretty smart people. I understand if they overrated someone because of lies they were told during the draft process or because there was some medical issue they didn't know about but I'd be surprised if they just missed that badly based on film alone.

He had Yankey as one of his top guards too, so grain of salt and all of that. I like Mayock's analysis and he's a great announcer but I don't think his draft big boards have been all that impressive.

[jackal]

I watched the Videos over the OTA's and it sounds like Clemmings, has the inside track, at RG this year

Listen to Spielmans comments when Leber brings it up, then he clarifies its still a competition for the OL
spots.

[VikingLord]

This sums up why I think most teams make huge mistakes when it comes to the draft:

The athletic Clemmings excelled as a run-blocker at right tackle as a senior, his second season playing that position and the offensive line after starting out as a defensive linemen. Clemmings went to the Senior Bowl and had a rough week in the pass-blocking one-on-ones. That week gave crystal-clear evidence that Clemmings was a project and a work in progress for the next level.
Read more at http://walterfootball.com/ws2015tjclemm ... LFQVK2M.99

So, the guy excels over a long period of time playing a position he hadn't played before (suggesting he is likely to get a lot better), but then he comes into a contrived situation and struggles, causing teams to downgrade him based his performance in the brief, contrived situation and discount the larger, "media-driven" evidence.

Clemmings may very well end up failing at the pro level, and he may even be a guy who has to bake for a season or two before we see what he can really do, but what the article describes to me is more a characteristic of how teams evaluate talent and fail than evidence Clemmings actually merited a 3rd or 4th round grade.