More New England Cheating?

[Mothman]

By the way, it's wild how specific the NFL rules are regarding the ball:

http://static.nfl.com/static/content/pu ... 3_Ball.pdf

Rule 2 The Ball
Section 1
BALL DIMENSIONS

The Ball must be a “Wilson,” hand selected, bearing the signature of the Commissioner of the League, Roger Goodell.
The ball shall be made up of an inflated (12 1/2 to 13 1/2 pounds) urethane bladder enclosed in a pebble grained, leather case
(natural tan color) without corrugations of any kind. It shall have the form of a prolate spheroid and the size and weight
shall be: long axis, 11 to 11 1/4 inches; long circumference, 28 to 28 1/2 inches; short circumference, 21 to 21 1/4 inches;
weight, 14 to 15 ounces.

The Referee shall be the sole judge as to whether all balls offered for play comply with these specifications. A pump is to be
furnished by the home club, and the balls shall remain under the supervision of the Referee until they are delivered to the
ball attendant just prior to the start of the game.

Section 2
BALL SUPPLY
Each team will make 12 primary balls available for testing by the Referee two hours and 15 minutes prior to the starting time of
the game to meet League requirements. The home team will also make 12 backup balls available for testing in all
stadiums. In addition, the visitors, at their discretion, may bring 12 backup balls to be tested by the Referee for games
held in outdoor stadiums. For all games, eight new footballs, sealed in a special box and shipped by the manufacturer to
the Referee, will be opened in the officials’ locker room two hours and 15 minutes prior to the starting time of the game.
These balls are to be specially marked by the Referee and used exclusively for the kicking game.

In the event a home team ball does not conform to specifications, or its supply is exhausted, the Referee shall secure a proper
ball from the visitors and, failing that, use the best available ball. Any such circumstances must be reported to the
Commissioner.

In case of rain or a wet, muddy, or slippery field, a playable ball shall be used at the request of the offensive team’s center.
The Game Clock shall not stop for such action (unless undue delay occurs).

Note: It is the responsibility of the home team to furnish playable balls at all times by attendants from either side of the playing
field.

[Cliff]

I don't know what to think anymore. If it was done intentionally, which seems probable, I agree it's pretty underhanded. However, if the NFL knew about this weeks earlier and wanted to catch NE in the act then it seems more than a little strange that they didn't do it until halftime of the game that determines who represents the AFC in the Super Bowl.

It's my understanding the league was informed by the Ravens after the game the week before so the AFC Championship game would be the first chance to actually test if that's the case. I don't know how else you'd catch them than in the act though. If New England was deflating the balls (or finding a way to sneak in different balls) you might not know before the game. Perhaps they deflate the balls or change them out after the game has already started?

Either way, I still doubt much comes of this.

[J. Kapp 11]

It's my understanding the league was informed by the Ravens after the game the week before so the AFC Championship game would be the first chance to actually test if that's the case. I don't know how else you'd catch them than in the act though. If New England was deflating the balls (or finding a way to sneak in different balls) you might not know before the game. Perhaps they deflate the balls or change them out after the game has already started?

Either way, I still doubt much comes of this.

Totally agree with you, Cliff.

And here's what gets me. If the NFL was trying to catch the Patriots in the act, then this may have been the most inept sting operation in the history of man.

Conspiracy theorists might even say it's the NFL's way of drumming up news where there is none.

[Mothman]

It's my understanding the league was informed by the Ravens after the game the week before so the AFC Championship game would be the first chance to actually test if that's the case.

That Yahoo piece I posted to above implied that teams complained about the Patriots using under-inflated footballs during the regular season, hence my comment above.

I don't know how else you'd catch them than in the act though. If New England was deflating the balls (or finding a way to sneak in different balls) you might not know before the game. Perhaps they deflate the balls or change them out after the game has already started?

Perhaps... that's another possibility, although that makes me wonder how many other teams might do the same thing or modify the balls in some other way. I don't know how that could be prevented during the game unless the balls were monitored or simply controlled by the league and never allowed in the possession of the teams.

It seems to me the logical time to check the footballs for the championship game would have been immediately before the game rather than at halftime. That way, if the balls were under-inflated, that could have been rectified before the opening kickoff instead of after half of the game had been played.

Either way, I still doubt much comes of this.

I doubt it too, although I suppose that depends on what the league's investigation uncovers. If they find compelling evidence of wrongdoing, they might hit the Patriots hard. I get the impression that's what some of the other owners and coaches around the league want to see happen.

[Mothman]

Conspiracy theorists might even say it's the NFL's way of drumming up news where there is none.

Indeed. As I said earlier in the thread, this story was basically a godsend for the media during the first of two weeks before the Super Bowl and I won't be surprised, in the wake of this wacky controversy, if this year's Super Bowl sets a ratings record (or at least approaches one).

[Cliff]

Indeed. As I said earlier in the thread, this story was basically a godsend for the media during the first of two weeks before the Super Bowl and I won't be surprised, in the wake of this wacky controversy, if this year's Super Bowl sets a ratings record (or at least approaches one).

I thought along the same lines. It also gets the attention away from the other issues facing the NFL (handling of Rice and Peterson, ongoing brain damage claims, etc).

If they intended for this to be such a big deal they're walking a very fine line. All of this makes me not even want to watch the Super Bowl. I wonder how many others feel the same way.

[J. Kapp 11]

I thought along the same lines. It also gets the attention away from the other issues facing the NFL (handling of Rice and Peterson, ongoing brain damage claims, etc).

If they intended for this to be such a big deal they're walking a very fine line. All of this makes me not even want to watch the Super Bowl. I wonder how many others feel the same way.

Right here. Not much interest, to be honest. Richard Sherman's mouth vs. Bill Belichick's dismissiveness to all who are not him? No thanks.

I mentioned this in an earlier post, but it seems that this story is very attractive to fringe fans. People like my daughter-in-law (whom I LOVE, by the way), who asked during her first week in a fantasy football league, "Is Aaron Rodgers a good player?" Fantasy football has attracted a lot of people who really don't care about football, but who love winning money (or at least competing for the chance to win money). A story like Deflategate could be like catnip to them.

And it's lucrative for the NFL to attract casual fans. More casual fans = more eyeballs on the TV this Sunday. More eyeballs on the TV = more future ad revenue. I mean, maybe this is as simple as, "Look Madison Avenue, we can drum up plenty of interest from women who typically spend their Sundays shopping for purses."

[dead_poet]

FOX's Jay Glazer reports the NFL has identified a Patriots locker room attendant as a "strong person of interest" in the ball-deflation scandal.

The league finally has its Ollie North. Per Glazer, the attendant "allegedly took balls from the officials' locker room to another area on way to the field." There is reportedly video of the incident. Glazer says the league is "still gauging if any wrong doing occurred." It's been obvious from Day 1 the Pats were going to set up some sort of underling as the fall guy, the only question is if he'll sing. The entire "scandal" is long past played out. It would be a shame were it to dominate all pre-SB chatter.
Source: Jay Glazer on Twitter

[cstelter]

Something to think about. If the Patriots have been deflating balls since 2007 one would think that it would show up in Brady's passing. So I went back and looked at his numbers. Now, I am not saying his number are better because of the deflated balls because the Patriots did happen to have a change in WR's in 2007. But look at the numbers and draw your own conclusions. Did the WR's make that much difference?

Code: Select all

          Games   Attp   Comp.     Per.    TD's.   TD rate    Int.   Int. Rate
2001-2006   94    3061    1895    61.9%    147       4.8%      78      2.5%
2007-2014  112    4093    2648    64.7%    245       6.0%      65      1.6%   

Again, the Patriots got Welker and Moss in 2007 so that may account for some of this. But does it account for all if it? I don't know. Rodgers has a high TD percentage. But Rodgers has never had the increase in TD percentage and decrease in Interception percentage that Brady had. And these two numbers just happen to have happened for Brady starting in 2007. Brady's int % the first 6 years. 2.9 2.3 2.3 3.0 2.6 2.3 And starting in 2007 1.4 2.3 0.8 2.0 1.3 1.8 1.5. BTW, 2007 is the first year that the teams were allowed to use their own balls for home and away games. A rule that Brady helped bring about. He just instantly got better with new WR's.

Well, even if this data is not all that compelling-- there was a link to an article earlier i the thread, or perhaps in another that did some pretty decent math on the statistical likelihood that the Patriots could be an entire standard deviation below the norm of anyone else in fumbles per game from 2007-present while prior they were not. When I read that article I was unaware that Manning and Brady had lobbied for teams to supply their own balls for the games in 2006 so now that date seems a bit more significant.

Lots of circumstantial evidence.

However, unless Tom or his center or running back is sticking a needle in the valve for a second, it seems hard to believe the onus for the problem is not with the refs who fail to check compliance. Still, the math in that article has me pretty suspicious.

[Raptorman]

FOX's Jay Glazer reports the NFL has identified a Patriots locker room attendant as a "strong person of interest" in the ball-deflation scandal.

The league finally has its Ollie North. Per Glazer, the attendant "allegedly took balls from the officials' locker room to another area on way to the field." There is reportedly video of the incident. Glazer says the league is "still gauging if any wrong doing occurred." It's been obvious from Day 1 the Pats were going to set up some sort of underling as the fall guy, the only question is if he'll sing. The entire "scandal" is long past played out. It would be a shame were it to dominate all pre-SB chatter.
Source: Jay Glazer on Twitter

And we have our fall guy. The one that will be left out to dry by the Patriots. Bill and Tom will claim not to even know him.

[Mothman]

Well, even if this data is not all that compelling-- there was a link to an article earlier i the thread, or perhaps in another that did some pretty decent math on the statistical likelihood that the Patriots could be an entire standard deviation below the norm of anyone else in fumbles per game from 2007-present while prior they were not. When I read that article I was unaware that Manning and Brady had lobbied for teams to supply their own balls for the games in 2006 so now that date seems a bit more significant.

Lots of circumstantial evidence.

I don't see that much and I don't find most of it very convincing but I understand why YMMV. If I recall correctly even in the article about fumbles, they pointed out that there were other possible explanations and that the statistical evidence was far from conclusive.

However, unless Tom or his center or running back is sticking a needle in the valve for a second, it seems hard to believe the onus for the problem is not with the refs who fail to check compliance. Still, the math in that article has me pretty suspicious.

Well, there's obviously some reason to be suspicious but it's pretty hard to believe they've been doing this for 7 years and nobody noticed or called them out on it until now.

[Mothman]

I love that chipmunk.

[Raptorman]

Well, even if this data is not all that compelling-- there was a link to an article earlier i the thread, or perhaps in another that did some pretty decent math on the statistical likelihood that the Patriots could be an entire standard deviation below the norm of anyone else in fumbles per game from 2007-present while prior they were not. When I read that article I was unaware that Manning and Brady had lobbied for teams to supply their own balls for the games in 2006 so now that date seems a bit more significant.

Lots of circumstantial evidence.

However, unless Tom or his center or running back is sticking a needle in the valve for a second, it seems hard to believe the onus for the problem is not with the refs who fail to check compliance. Still, the math in that article has me pretty suspicious.

FWIW, the other QB that lobbied for the teams to use their own balls, Peyton Manning, well, his number didn't change. At least not until he went to Denver were they made the jump.

[VikingLord]

The Patriots, as far as I can tell, followed the rules as they are written. They got a ruling, so to speak, by turning in the footballs to the officials. And even if they knew the balls would deflate in the cold, the rule doesn't cover that

I've read a couple of sources now that are saying that even if the balls had been inflated in a sauna and brought outside into zero degree temps they could not have deflated to the degree observed in the balls used by the Patriots. It's a nice theory, but it's very testable and so far it's not holding air. The change in temp would have had to be far larger than possible under the circumstances of that game to result in the loss of pressure observed.

If that is true, then the "Who, me?" explanation falls apart, doesn't it? if the above is true, would you agree that the Patriots must have intentionally deflated the balls used by their offense?

I guess what I'm driving at is where is the line for those defending the Patriots here? If it is proven that PV=nRT doesn't explain what was observed, is that enough to indict Belichek and his team for cheating?

[Mothman]

I've read a couple of sources now that are saying that even if the balls had been inflated in a sauna and brought outside into zero degree temps they could not have deflated to the degree observed in the balls used by the Patriots. It's a nice theory, but it's very testable and so far it's not holding air. The change in temp would have had to be far larger than possible under the circumstances of that game to result in the loss of pressure observed.

At this point, it seems to be a matter of who and what we want to believe. For example:

http://www.cnet.com/news/bill-nye-says- ... -disagree/

Science is not universally standing behind Nye, however. The boffins at HeadSmart Labs, who develop testing devices to aid in reducing sports concussions, did their own experiment.

They tested a temperature difference of 75 degrees and the game time on the field 51 degrees. They also wet the 12 brand new footballs to simulate real game time conditions on the day in question.

The moisture, these scientists argue, would increase the volume of the ball and decrease the pressure.

I have no reason to believe these are a covert group of Patriots obsessives. They are students and professors at Carnegie Mellon University, so they might know their science.

They discovered that merely the drop in temperature and the wetness of the balls reduced the pressure by an average of 1.8 psi. The maximum they saw was a drop of 1.95 psi.

So, someone tested it and concluded that weather and field conditions alone could have accounted for a nearly 2 psi drop.

I guess what I'm driving at is where is the line for those defending the Patriots here? If it is proven that PV=nRT doesn't explain what was observed, is that enough to indict Belichek and his team for cheating?

Some evidence or testimony clearly implicating them would be nice, as would greater transparency. What was the psi of the Colts footballs at halftime? What were the psi numbers for the footballs of both teams when tested before the game? To outward appearances, it certainly looks like the Patriots cheated and maybe they did but we don't even have some of the basic information that would allow us to make a determination. We know the balls were under-inflated at halftime. We don't yet know how they got that way or who was responsible.