Hunter to the Angels

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wang_chi7
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Post by wang_chi7 »

Minniman wrote: While I believe the situation stinks, I am placing blame on the system which is unfair and not good for any team sport. You consistantly refuse to do so, which is your prerogative, but I disagree with your conclusion.

Pohlad has often allowed his team salaries to go over the team revenue available, but you are blaming Pohlad for not spending his own money on players that have inflated salaries from overspending large market teams. You state that Pohlad would not spend even if he had the money from revenue sharing, which you cannot prove in any way because it is an theoretical abstraction.

There should be revenue sharing; there should be a cap, and the players association would require a salary floor in exchange for that. It would be the best for the game and the best for the Twins.
I agree on revenue sharing, not on a cap (unless its soft). I hate the NFL system and am afraid another sport will be screwed up by it.

I come down hard on the popular belief that baseball is totally unfair because it is just wrong. There is a problem, I'll repeat that because it never gets thru- THERE IS A PROBLEM. But its not that big, payroll doesn't lead to winning. It can, but it doesn't necessarily. For the Yankees and Red Sox there's the Dodgers, Cubs, Mets, Phillies that have just as much success (if not less) than Oakland and Minnesota. There's inequality in the system, but the results aren't affected too badly. Not like the media likes to complain about. I've read many, many books about baseball economics and most conclude that the league is basically fair in its outcomes. The teams don't start out fair, but the results come close to completely fair.

I've always believed Pohlad doesn't make as much money as he could. If he'd put money into the team, fans would come to the park in higher numbers. For example, Ted Turner would lose money for years with the Braves but eventually they started winning, a lot. And he made his money back. Pohlad only thinks year to year, and not in the long term it seems. The Braves used to struggle to get 3000 into the stadium, for the longest time they sell out the vast majority of games. Thats changed with Turner selling to a corporation who is cutting payroll and is losing more.

Yeah, I'm just speculating Pohlad wouldn't spend the money given by revenue sharing. Much of that goes back to the 1990's when he made it very well known he wanted to dump as much salary as possible and get below 10m payroll (which would be equivelant to probably 25 today.) He also was begging to be contracted. I'm not being absolutely fair to the man, but I'm not totally out of line. IMO.

What I think they need to do: teams keep half of all revenue, the other half is put in a pool and redistributed evenly amongst teams. A luxury tax would stay intact (and probably be a smaller number than now), but I'd also add a tax to underspending. All revenue from sharing would have to go toward payroll or you give the difference to the pool, maybe even make the floor a little more than the amount received in rev. sharing.
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Minniman
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Post by Minniman »

I come down hard on the popular belief that baseball is totally unfair because it is just wrong. There is a problem, I'll repeat that because it never gets thru- THERE IS A PROBLEM. But its not that big, payroll doesn't lead to winning. It can, but it doesn't necessarily. For the Yankees and Red Sox there's the Dodgers, Cubs, Mets, Phillies that have just as much success (if not less) than Oakland and Minnesota. There's inequality in the system, but the results aren't affected too badly. Not like the media likes to complain about. I've read many, many books about baseball economics and most conclude that the league is basically fair in its outcomes. The teams don't start out fair, but the results come close to completely fair.
How can you say that having twice or three times the payroll being unfair is just wrong? Sometimes the little guy wins, but that doesn't mean its fair.

Point me to a scientific analysis of this, as I'd like to read it. I'd like to see the full regression numbers.

Answer me this, when was the last time a star player had to leave New York because a small market team was vastly outbidding for his services?

Last season, the MVP of Major League Baseball was ARod. Neither Seattle, with it new ballpark revenue or Texas with its mid market size could afford to keep him. He ended up with the Yankees, as is too often the case. You don't believe losing ARod in either Seattle or Texas hurt their teams? You don't believe losing the Gold Glove of Torii Hunter and perhaps Santana will hurt the Twins?

The fact is this: the Twins do not have enough money to pay Hunter what the Angels would pay him, and they likely will have to part ways with Santana. Again, I wan't to make this clear, they don't have the money, and their best two hitters have not even seen their big paydays.

If you don't like the way the NFL does it, imagine this: the Chicago Bears, having twice the revenue as the Minnesota Vikings, sign free agent Adrian Peterson to a contract that the Vikings can not afford. If it wasn't for some scrupulous owners lead by Giants owner Wellington Mara not only agreeing to share television revenue but insisting on it, the NFL would be a league a haves and have-nots just like Major League Baseball.
We come from the land of the ice and snow .... :smilevike:
wang_chi7
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Post by wang_chi7 »

Minniman wrote: How can you say that having twice or three times the payroll being unfair is just wrong? Sometimes the little guy wins, but that doesn't mean its fair.

Point me to a scientific analysis of this, as I'd like to read it. I'd like to see the full regression numbers.

Answer me this, when was the last time a star player had to leave New York, because a small market team was vastly outbidding for his services?

Last season, the MVP of Major League Baseball was ARod. Neither Seattle, with it new ballpark revenue or Texas with its mid market size could afford to keep him. He ended up with the Yankees, as is too often the case. You don't believe losing ARod in either Seattle or Texas hurt their teams? You don't believe losing the Gold Glove of Torii Hunter and perhaps Santana will hurt the Twins?

The fact is this: the Twins do not have enough money to pay Hunter what the Angels would pay him, and they likely will have to part ways with Santana. Again, I wan't to make this clear, they don't have the money, and their best two hitters have not even seen their big paydays.

If you don't like the way the NFL does it, imagine this: the Chicago Bears, having twice the revenue as the Minnesota Vikings, sign free agent Adrian Peterson to a contract that the Vikings can not afford. If it wasn't for some scrupulous owners lead by Giants owner Wellington Mara not only agreeing to share television revenue but insisting on it, the NFL would be a league a haves and have-nots just like Major League Baseball.
I didn't say its fair, I said the results about even out even with the inequality.

"Baseball Between the Number" by Baseball Prospectus devouts a lot to the situation. As does JC Bradbury's "The Baseball Economist." Both state my case very well, much better than I can.

Of cource Texas (who did pay that massive contract) and Seattle were hurt by losing Arod, I'm not going to argue that. As Minnesota likely will be hurt by losing Hunter (though I believe he will drop in abilities pretty quickly and wasn't worth what Anaheim gave him). I'm not going to argue that losing players doesn't hurt, it obviously does. I just question how much correlation there is between winning and payroll as many high payroll teams have been mediocre at best for years (Cubs, Phillies, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, White Sox had one good year in a long stretch). I think that Boston and New York's success has clouded judgment, they are only two of the big market teams (I guess we can put Anaheim in the equation in the last 4 years or so.) New York hasn't won didly since they started building thru free agency again.

Boston's lineup is basically guys the brought up, Ortiz who nobody wanted, Lowell came only because he was forced onto them with the Beckett trade, with Manny being the only big pickup. The rotation though, obviously was helped with money (Beckett, Schilling). Boston obviously has benefited from a big payroll. I will give you them.

This last season the world series featured a small market team in Colorado, it isn't that rare either. Houston's a pretty average market (2005), Florida won it in 2003 beating a few big markets in the playoffs, Anaheim in 2002 was a lot smaller than today's big spender, Arizona in 2001, San Diego in 1998, and Florida in 1997. Those are all in the modern times of "big market vs. small market." The playoffs last year featured Cleveland, Arizona, and Colorado; also a Phillies team that hadn't done anything in years and has been built like a smaller market. Cleveland and Arizona made it to the LCS, Colorado to the World Series.

Teams can't just buy championships, it does not work. Only Arizona really was successful at doing so, sort of the 1997 Marlins. They have to build their teams. Yes, they can afford to keep their players around easier than small market teams, but with arbitration everybody can keep their guys for 6 years which will go thru most player's primes. Free agents are generally over 31-32 and passed their prime, but get contracts based on what they did in their best years (generally 27-30.) The original team generally gets the best years out of their guys. Pitchers are a little different because they stay effective a little longer generally, so guys like Zito and Santana become available somewhere in the last half of their primes generally.

You seem to be ignoring, once again, that I've been saying they need revenue sharing. I don't know how to stress it enough, so I'll just stop after this post because I'm talking to a wall. Your last paragraph is therefore moot. I hate the NFL's hard cap, not its revenue sharing; they get the sharing right. I just don't want another sport messed up by a crappy cap. The NBA soft cap is a fine way to go, otherwise my suggestion brought up earlier would be fine with some working out of details.
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Post by Minniman »

I didn't say its fair, I said the results about even out even with the inequality.
If "the popular belief that baseball is unfair is just wrong", then it is logically fair, and that quote is exactly what you stated.

If it isn't unfair, then it is fair. This isn't a false dichotomy, as there really are not many shades of gray between being fair or not?
New York hasn't won didly since they started building thru free agency again.
Again? They have been building via free agency since the Twins traded soon to be free agent Chuck Knoblauch to them.

Do the division championships, wild card teams, 100 game winning seasons not count either? The Yankees don't look as dominating as they are because there are another few high spending teams in their division.
Teams can't just buy championships, it does not work.
Atlanta, New York, and Boston did. The Dodgers did it too. Kirk Gibson's World Series home run did not come off a home grown bat.

That stated, teams may not be able to buy a World Series outright, but they can certainly pay to be in the race, and teams that do not are generally either out of the race or allowed one go at it with cheaper shoes.
You seem to be ignoring, once again, that I've been saying they need revenue sharing.
I am not ignoring it, but it is a conclusion that does not match your premise. If money isn't a factor, than why would MLB need revenue sharing?
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wang_chi7
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Post by wang_chi7 »

Minniman wrote: I am not ignoring it, but it is a conclusion that does not match your premise. If money isn't a factor, than why would MLB need revenue sharing?
There are shades of grey between fair and unfair. Its not an unfair system where most of the league may as well not show up (like college football is very close to), but its not completely even either. Its somewhere in the middle, we just disagree on where on the spectrum it is.


Money is a factor, I stated that. Its not the deciding factor, but one of them. Thats why I believe they need revenue sharing. I'm not on the far end of the spectrum saying money ain't the issue and there isn't a problem. I'm done with this, there just seems to be no way to make it clear what my stance is I guess.
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Post by wang_chi7 »

I did some regression analysis on how payroll and market size effect wins and divisional placing. I used seasons 2000-2007 and adjusted salaries to baseball's inflation.

The findings are that both payroll and market size do have a linear relationship with both wins and where a team places in their division (passed the 99% confidence level even.) The correlation coefficients are as follows:

Payroll to wins: .426
Payroll to place: .417
Market to wins: .295
Market to place: .265

Those aren't strong coefficients at all (I wouldn't even consider .7 too strong.) There is a relationship, its just not very big. Other factors such as good coaching, good scouting, and strategy play a bigger part (I didn't study them because they are subjective.) There is the relationship, its just not overbearing.

If anybody want to see the numbers, PM me your email and I'll send you the excel file, SPSS file (a strong statistical program that most people don't have, but if you do it will come in handy), and the results in Word.


I do wish they'd figure out how to share the wealth, but like I said it isn't crippling anybody. Its an advantage, I agree. Its just not the deciding factor.
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Post by CalVike »

wang_chi7 wrote:I do wish they'd figure out how to share the wealth, but like I said it isn't crippling anybody. Its an advantage, I agree. Its just not the deciding factor.
It's hurting everybody. There is a reason the Yankees have made 12-straight playoff appearances, most as division champions. Their payroll gives them the best chance by far to win over a 162-game regular season. The playoff results are skewed by the short division series (5 games) and by 7-game series where teams with lesser payrolls are statistically more likely to prevail. How the Yankee payroll relative to other teams is anything but a bane for baseball I'll never know, but Commissioner Selig believes there are no problems so nothing is likely to change anytime soon.
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Post by wang_chi7 »

CalVike wrote: It's hurting everybody. There is a reason the Yankees have made 12-straight playoff appearances, most as division champions. Their payroll gives them the best chance by far to win over a 162-game regular season. The playoff results are skewed by the short division series (5 games) and by 7-game series where teams with lesser payrolls are statistically more likely to prevail. How the Yankee payroll relative to other teams is anything but a bane for baseball I'll never know, but Commissioner Selig believes there are no problems so nothing is likely to change anytime soon.
I agree, payroll plays a factor in the regular season. But we got to remember for the Yankees there's the Mets who generally don't even make the playoffs. There's also the Cubs with a large payroll, Giants, Dodgers they all suck most of the time. The Yankees and Red Sox obviously put their money to good use, I'm not going to argue against that. But money still needs to be well spent to be worth anything.

I'm glad you mentioned the playoffs. Thats one of my main beefs with the popular argument, smaller teams do have success in October because what builds a 100 game winner doesn't necessarily build a champ. This season was the first time in I believe 10 years that the best regular season team won it all. Championships is where baseball comes out fair in outcome, there's been lots of turnover since free agency kicked in (before that there were dynasties galore hogging the titles.)

I know I can come off as way out there, much of that is for effect. I'm basically playing devil's advocate to popular opinion. I do believe what I argue, but not quite as harshly as I put it. There is a problem that needs fixing, its just not as big as its blown up to be. The numbers show that. I never see statistical proof to show there is a major problem, just opinions based on symptoms. Symptoms don't equal disease.


By the way, Selig sucks. He can't retire soon enough. Between this issue, the messed up unbalanced schedule, the wild card mess (I'm not totally against the WC, but there's problems with the playoff system that have proven to benefit WC teams as they win way more often than they really should), and how the All Star game decides home field in the WS. Many other issues too, but that would be a whole essay.
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Post by CalVike »

wang_chi7 wrote:By the way, Selig sucks. He can't retire soon enough.
Until about 5 years ago, I thought he was horrible, absolutely a terrible commissioner. Then he brokered labor peace in the last round of negotiations and baseball started to really take off. And the Twins were not contracted. But the Mitchell steroid report that he commissioned is likely to hit his legacy hard. He enabled the entire era and it may well turn out to be the totality of his legacy. Sad because I think his heart is really into the game of baseball and its lore, but he will possibly be synonymous with Shoeless Joe and Pete Rose as dastardly characters who tarnished the game ...
wang_chi7
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Post by wang_chi7 »

CalVike wrote: Until about 5 years ago, I thought he was horrible, absolutely a terrible commissioner. Then he brokered labor peace in the last round of negotiations and baseball started to really take off. And the Twins were not contracted. But the Mitchell steroid report that he commissioned is likely to hit his legacy hard. He enabled the entire era and it may well turn out to be the totality of his legacy. Sad because I think his heart is really into the game of baseball and its lore, but he will possibly be synonymous with Shoeless Joe and Pete Rose as dastardly characters who tarnished the game ...
Trying to contract the Twins was just a joke, his own team was a much better candidate. As was Tampa Bay. Pohlad wanted to be bought out (because the contraction buyout was well above market value), so the Twins were the choice. Good thing it fell through. I still blame Selig and Pohlad and won't forgive it.

I'm glad he's finally getting the game cleaned up, but it only took ten years of ignoring the issue. It blackeyed the game, for which the shiner still remains.

The Spiderman bases a couple years ago was just wrong too, good thing enough fans were vocal enough to put a stop to it.

The All Star Game tie was a complete and utter joke, he could have allowed an exception to not letting pitchers back in the game (let each team pick one guy to roll with.)

The 1994 strike was the biggest thing though. Not all of it is Bud's fault, but there were things he could have done better. Cancelling the WS was just awful.

Then there's the WC, which wasn't a terrible idea but is messed up. Here's an idea to fix it: http://www.sportsmogul.com/content/playoffs.html . That one is kind of out there, but there are other things to fix the playoffs. There's something wrong with a system where the best regular season team wins the WS every 10 years.
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Post by CalVike »

from today's LA Times ...
http://www.latimes.com/sports/printedit ... 3007.story
nice article on Hunter's back story ...
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