Aaron Rodgers value

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John_Viveiros
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Aaron Rodgers value

Post by John_Viveiros » Mon Oct 23, 2017 1:03 am

How many points per game is Aaron Rodgers worth? How much value does he provide over a replacement value player? How much value over Brett Hundley?

I tossed out in last week's post-game thread that I expected the Packers to go 3-7 with Hundley at QB. It seemed overly pessimistic even to me. But having two weeks of data on Hundley, it's hard to say that he isn't something like 10 points worse than Rodgers. The Saints/Packers game went just about the way I expected with Rodgers on the sidelines, with the Saints winning by nine (I would have guessed a Saints win by a smaller margin). I guarantee the Saints wouldn't have won in Lambeau by nine with Rodgers. And they wouldn't have lost by 13 on the road at Minnesota - 3 maybe.

Let's say that that the Packers score one fewer TD, and because they can't sustain drives they give up an extra possession/better field position which results in a FG for the opposition. Ten points a game is HUGE! If you take ten points off the line of the rest of the Packers games, they'll only be favored in Cleveland, and probably do have an expected win total of around three more.
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Re: Aaron Rodgers value

Post by PurpleMustReign » Mon Oct 23, 2017 5:52 am

I'm still not counting them out. If McCarthy, etc. Can get a good fame plan for Hundley, he could be successful. He still has his WRs.

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Re: Aaron Rodgers value

Post by John_Viveiros » Tue Oct 24, 2017 12:36 am

PurpleMustReign wrote:I'm still not counting them out. If McCarthy, etc. Can get a good fame plan for Hundley, he could be successful. He still has his WRs.
How good are the Packers WR's without a first ballot HOF QB throwing to them? How do we know that Jerry Rice - who had two HOF QB's throwing to him - was a better receiver than Cris Carter, who had QB's throwing who haven't sniffed HOF consideration.
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Re: Aaron Rodgers value

Post by dead_poet » Tue Oct 24, 2017 5:49 am

Aaron Rodgers' value? That of a turd sandwich.
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Re: Aaron Rodgers value

Post by jackal » Wed Oct 25, 2017 1:44 am

I wouldnt be surprised if lose
the majority of the rest of the
season.
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Re: Aaron Rodgers value

Post by J. Kapp 11 » Sun Oct 29, 2017 10:04 pm

PurpleMustReign wrote:I'm still not counting them out. If McCarthy, etc. Can get a good fame plan for Hundley, he could be successful. He still has his WRs.

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I'm so tired of hearing how good Mike McCarthy is.

The man has coached exactly 8 games out of 184 without a Hall-of-Famer as his starting quarterback. His record in those games is 2-5-1.

Compare to Mike Zimmer, who is 32-22 with Matt Cassel, Teddy Bridgewater, Shaun HIll, Sam Bradford and Case Keenum as his starting quarterbacks.

The Packers weren't all that good this year with Rodgers. Without him, they're finished. Book it.
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Re: Aaron Rodgers value

Post by John_Viveiros » Mon Oct 30, 2017 12:57 am

J. Kapp 11 wrote:I'm so tired of hearing how good Mike McCarthy is.

The man has coached exactly 8 games out of 184 without a Hall-of-Famer as his starting quarterback. His record in those games is 2-5-1.

Compare to Mike Zimmer, who is 32-22 with Matt Cassel, Teddy Bridgewater, Shaun HIll, Sam Bradford and Case Keenum as his starting quarterbacks.

The Packers weren't all that good this year with Rodgers. Without him, they're finished. Book it.
That's my take - it's why I started this somewhat provocative thread.

Glad the Lions dropped their game to the Steelers today. Now I can wholeheartedly pull for them to beat the Packers next week, leaving both teams at 4-4 at the midway point of the season. Currently, the line is that they are even up, in Lambeau, but I think that's still rating the Packers quite a bit optimistically. The Lions defense can be tough. I wouldn't expect the Pack to put up more than 10 points on them with Hundley. Remember, they struggled to beat the Bengals at home with Rodgers.
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Re: Aaron Rodgers value

Post by jackal » Mon Oct 30, 2017 3:11 am

Wow I can’t believe I am going to say this but
I want the Packers to win the game between them
and the lions. I see the lions as the more dangerous
team to the Vikings right now. There is no way the
Packers win enough games without Rodgers.
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Re: Aaron Rodgers value

Post by PurpleMustReign » Mon Oct 30, 2017 8:52 am

I am really on the fence for that game next week. Detroit is still a good team, but I really don't trust GB to lost like everyone else is. I would rather they be completely out of it as soon as possible.

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Re: Aaron Rodgers value

Post by jackal » Mon Oct 30, 2017 4:58 pm

I quess technically a tie with injuries for both
helps the most.


If we handle business and win 5 or 6 games
It shouldn’t matter
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Re: Aaron Rodgers value

Post by John_Viveiros » Tue Nov 07, 2017 1:30 am

4-3 Packers at home against the 3-4 Lions. With Rodgers, that's about a six point Packer line. Without Rodgers, and even counting the garbage time touchdown (which only happened because the refs completely missed the intentional grounding at the end, where Hundley was in the pocket AND didn't get the ball to the line of scrimmage), it was a 13 point loss. I'm figuring now that Rodgers was worth about 13 points per game for them.

More than half their yards came when they were three scores down in the fourth quarter. They were on something like 148 yards when they got the ball with under 13 minutes to go in the game.

Rodgers covered up for a lot. Do you realize that the Lions didn't punt once tonight? One fumble, one missed FG, three FG's and three TD's. That's a pretty bad defensive performance.

Seriously, these guys are Browns/49er's bad.
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Re: Aaron Rodgers value

Post by jackal » Tue Nov 07, 2017 2:17 am

I watched about a quarter or so and I don’t know
if I would say the worst in the league but the
Packers are a losing record team without Rodgers
without a doubt.
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Re: Aaron Rodgers value

Post by Raptorman » Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:22 pm

John_Viveiros wrote:How many points per game is Aaron Rodgers worth? How much value does he provide over a replacement value player? How much value over Brett Hundley?

I tossed out in last week's post-game thread that I expected the Packers to go 3-7 with Hundley at QB. It seemed overly pessimistic even to me. But having two weeks of data on Hundley, it's hard to say that he isn't something like 10 points worse than Rodgers. The Saints/Packers game went just about the way I expected with Rodgers on the sidelines, with the Saints winning by nine (I would have guessed a Saints win by a smaller margin). I guarantee the Saints wouldn't have won in Lambeau by nine with Rodgers. And they wouldn't have lost by 13 on the road at Minnesota - 3 maybe.

Let's say that that the Packers score one fewer TD, and because they can't sustain drives they give up an extra possession/better field position which results in a FG for the opposition. Ten points a game is HUGE! If you take ten points off the line of the rest of the Packers games, they'll only be favored in Cleveland, and probably do have an expected win total of around three more.
The Packers defense isn't designed to play without Rodgers playing on offense. I can see them winning against the Browns and maybe the Ravens. But anyone else they are pretty much toast. Unless their D comes alive and stops other teams from scoring. Which it hasn't since 2012.
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Re: Aaron Rodgers value

Post by John_Viveiros » Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:18 pm

Raptorman wrote:The Packers defense isn't designed to play without Rodgers playing on offense. I can see them winning against the Browns and maybe the Ravens. But anyone else they are pretty much toast. Unless their D comes alive and stops other teams from scoring. Which it hasn't since 2012.
There goes their shot at the Ravens. That was a real butt-kicking. I may have to watch the replay just for the joy of watching the Packers fans as they realize their dreams of Superbowl conquest are becoming dreams of a high draft choice.

And I have no doubt that Rodgers would have kept this one close, if not winning it, at home, regardless of the strength of the Ravens D. Think of what that says about the relative strength of Hundley.

I'm not sure the team I saw (occasionally, on the Red Zone channel) in Lambeau can beat the Browns, who are a bad team, but play hard.
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Re: Aaron Rodgers value

Post by jackal » Wed Nov 29, 2017 1:10 am

Yeah the packers have less than a four percent
chance of making playoffs ...he he
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