Future top QB's.

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Raptorman
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Future top QB's.

Post by Raptorman » Mon Sep 07, 2015 8:01 am

We all know that QB's can't last forever. In the next 5 years there are several top QB's that will no longer be playing. The question is, who do you think will replace some of these QB's? Now, we all know that Peyton Manning is more than likely in his last year, maybe two. But in the next five years there are more top QB's that are going to be gone. In order you refresh your memory as to who might be gone the following list of 12 has their age and rating. I think at least 6 of these players will no longer be playing in 5 years. So, who replace's them in the top 12 QB list?

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         Name            Age  Rating
1     Aaron Rodgers      31	106.0
2     Tony Romo          35	 97.6
3     Peyton Manning     39	 97.5
4     Tom Brady          38	 95.9
5     Philip Rivers      33	 95.7
6     Drew Brees         36	 95.4
7     Ben Roethl.  	   33	 93.9
8     Matt Schaub        34	 89.5
9     Carson Palmer      35	 86.3
10    Jay Cutler         32	 85.2
11    Alex Smith         31	 82.8
12    Eli Manning        34	 82.4
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Re: Future top QB's.

Post by Mothman » Mon Sep 07, 2015 8:43 am

Raptorman wrote:We all know that QB's can't last forever. In the next 5 years there are several top QB's that will no longer be playing. The question is, who do you think will replace some of these QB's? Now, we all know that Peyton Manning is more than likely in his last year, maybe two. But in the next five years there are more top QB's that are going to be gone. In order you refresh your memory as to who might be gone the following list of 12 has their age and rating. I think at least 6 of these players will no longer be playing in 5 years. So, who replace's them in the top 12 QB list?

Tough question.

The easiest answer is Andrew Luck. So, who's with him? I'll be optimistic and say Bridgewater will be among that top 12.

Beyond those two, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco would both be 35 but they could be in that group. I think Stafford and Tannehill could be in there too.

It's also possible a few of the "new 6" aren't even in the NFL yet.
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Re: Future top QB's.

Post by Raptorman » Mon Sep 07, 2015 9:23 am

Mothman wrote:
Tough question.

The easiest answer is Andrew Luck. So, who's with him? I'll be optimistic and say Bridgewater will be among that top 12.

Beyond those two, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco would both be 35 but they could be in that group. I think Stafford and Tannehill could be in there too.

It's also possible a few of the "new 6" aren't even in the NFL yet.
Luck would have been in there if not for the age cutoff I used. But, his rating is more about the 40 TD's he had last season than anything else. His completion percentage sucks.
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Re: Future top QB's.

Post by Mothman » Mon Sep 07, 2015 9:53 am

Raptorman wrote: Luck would have been in there if not for the age cutoff I used. But, his rating is more about the 40 TD's he had last season than anything else. His completion percentage sucks.
I think "sucks" is a bit harsh. Rodgers' completion percentage was less than 4 percentage points better than Luck's last year and Brady's was less than 3% better. That's not a huge difference separating Luck's completion percentage from that of two of the very best QBs in the league. Luck's percentage was 61.7 and I'd say anything above 60% is fine unless the QB is in an offense that involves an inordinate number of high percentage throws. Completion percentage is affected by drops and throwaways too and according to Football Outsiders, Luck had more passes dropped than any other QB in the NFL last season. He intentionally threw away 3.6% of his passes too:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-a ... wn-passers

Plus, throwing for 40 TDs is a pretty big positive, wouldn't you agree? ;)
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Re: Future top QB's.

Post by Raptorman » Mon Sep 07, 2015 10:24 am

Mothman wrote: I think "sucks" is an exaggeration. Rodgers' completion percentage was less than 4 percentage points better than Luck's last year and Brady's was less than 3% better. That's not a huge difference separating Luck's completion percentage from that of two of the very best QBs in the league. Luck's percentage was 61.7 and I'd say anything above 60% is fine unless the QB is in an offense that involves an inordinate number of high percentage throws. Completion percentage is affected by drops and throwaways too and according to Football Outsiders, Luck had more passes dropped than any other QB in the NFL last season. He intentionally threw away 3.6% of his passes too:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-a ... wn-passers

Plus, throwing for 40 TDs is a pretty big positive, wouldn't you agree? ;)
Yes, 40 is good. But here is the thing. What's a high percentage throw? Guys like Brees and Rodgers, 65% to 67% of all their passes are either behind the line of scrimmage or within the first 10 yards. Now, this is nothing new. All the top ranked QB's throw like this. I hear people talking about dink and dunk QB's all the time. Guess what? That is exactly what these guys do. I will give Luck one thing, he throws downfield more often than Rodgers, and that does effect his completion percentage. His completion percentage is going up. But all the top QB's that win on a regular basis these days average around 63% and up. He needs to get it up a bit higher. I think he will. Because he won't throw 40 TDs a year. Of course he is also playing in a system were he throws 37 times a game. That is a tremendous number of attempts.
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Re: Future top QB's.

Post by Mothman » Mon Sep 07, 2015 10:25 am

I just realized I left Russell Wilson off the list of QBs I posted in response to your question. He could easily replace one of those 12 QBs who could be gone 5 years from now.
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Re: Future top QB's.

Post by Mothman » Mon Sep 07, 2015 10:45 am

Raptorman wrote:Yes, 40 is good. But here is the thing. What's a high percentage throw? Guys like Brees and Rodgers, 65% to 67% of all their passes are either behind the line of scrimmage or within the first 10 yards. Now, this is nothing new. All the top ranked QB's throw like this. I hear people talking about dink and dunk QB's all the time. Guess what? That is exactly what these guys do.
Right, and it's one of the reasons they tend to have a high completion percentage.
I will give Luck one thing, he throws downfield more often than Rodgers, and that does effect his completion percentage. His completion percentage is going up. But all the top QB's that win on a regular basis these days average around 63% and up.
Not all. :) I'd argue that Luck IS a top QB that wins on a regular basis. The Colts have been winning on a regular basis over his entire career thus far. If I counted correctly his record as a pro, including postseason games, is 36-18 (13-6 in 2014; 12-6 in 2013; 11-6 in 2012).
He needs to get it up a bit higher. I think he will. Because he won't throw 40 TDs a year. Of course he is also playing in a system were he throws 37 times a game. That is a tremendous number of attempts.
I agree and in the end, his completion percentage is less important than his overall effectiveness.The % could be a bit higher, and he'll probably get it there. I don't think there's much doubt he's going to be one of the league's better QBs for years to come if he stays healthy.
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Re: Future top QB's.

Post by Raptorman » Mon Sep 07, 2015 11:49 am

I have 5 current QB's that I think will make that list. In no particular order.....

Carr
Tannehill
Bridgewater
Luck
Wilson
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Re: Future top QB's.

Post by 84BreaksAnkles » Tue Sep 08, 2015 8:59 am

Cardale, J T, Ted, luck, bottles, Carr, tannehill! Wilson
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Re: Future top QB's.

Post by Raptorman » Tue Sep 08, 2015 6:11 pm

frosted wrote: Completion percentage doesn't translate perfectly to accuracy. Not at all. Average depth of target has a significant role in a player's completion percentage.


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Absolutely correct. So lets take a look at that idea. Depth of target. Since most QB's completion percentage drops quite a bit after 20 yards, let's use pass's that are behind the line of scrimmage out to 20 yards.

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Luck
2012    306 comp   527 attempts   58.1%
2013    331 comp   518 attempts   63.9%
2014    341 comp   520 attempts   64.8%
Total   978 comp  1570 attempts   62.3%

Bridgewater
2014   227 comp  334 attempts    68.0%

Carr
2014    314 comp 508 attempts   62.0%

P. Manning
2014   345 comp  503 attempts  68.6%

Rodgers
2014   300 comp   450 attempts   66.7%

Wilson
2014    253 comp  382 attempts   66.2%
Sorry guys, guess I am just tired of hearing how great Andrew Luck is. Is he good, sure. But were does the "Luck is better than ......" everyone else come from? Sure he throws 38+ times a game, most of those, 85%, are less than 20 yards.
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