Proposed Onside Kick Change

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Purple Domination
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Proposed Onside Kick Change

Post by Purple Domination » Fri Nov 22, 2019 3:36 pm

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J. Kapp 11
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Re: Proposed Onside Kick Change

Post by J. Kapp 11 » Tue Nov 26, 2019 4:43 pm

It's a little weird, but I guess it would work.

With a 12.5% chance of converting a 4th and 15, it would be better odds than with the current onside kick rules.

I guess I'm a traditionalist in many ways. I miss the old onside kick rules. At least there was a chance to recover, and it was an exciting play.
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PurpleMustReign
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Re: Proposed Onside Kick Change

Post by PurpleMustReign » Mon Dec 09, 2019 7:11 pm

J. Kapp 11 wrote:
Tue Nov 26, 2019 4:43 pm
It's a little weird, but I guess it would work.

With a 12.5% chance of converting a 4th and 15, it would be better odds than with the current onside kick rules.

I guess I'm a traditionalist in many ways. I miss the old onside kick rules. At least there was a chance to recover, and it was an exciting play.
What were the odds of the old onside kick? I thought it was less than 12.5%...
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J. Kapp 11
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Re: Proposed Onside Kick Change

Post by J. Kapp 11 » Tue Dec 10, 2019 8:03 am

PurpleMustReign wrote:
Mon Dec 09, 2019 7:11 pm
J. Kapp 11 wrote:
Tue Nov 26, 2019 4:43 pm
It's a little weird, but I guess it would work.

With a 12.5% chance of converting a 4th and 15, it would be better odds than with the current onside kick rules.

I guess I'm a traditionalist in many ways. I miss the old onside kick rules. At least there was a chance to recover, and it was an exciting play.
What were the odds of the old onside kick? I thought it was less than 12.5%...
In 2018 it was 7.5% (4 of 53). Prior to the rules change, it historically had been around 20%.

This year, it was 8.1% until Week 13, when Atlanta strangely recovered two straight onside kicks on Thanksgiving against New Orleans (they also recovered a third, but it was ruled out of bounds). I'm not sure where the number stands at this point for 2019, but I'm guessing it's skewed because of the ATL-NO game.

So yes, 12.5% would be an improved opportunity to get the ball back.

I just like the old rule. There was a lot more suspense.
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RandyMoss84
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Re: Proposed Onside Kick Change

Post by RandyMoss84 » Mon Jan 13, 2020 8:41 am

I do not see how that would work if teams go conservative on 4th and 15
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