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 Late drafting strategy 
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Post Late drafting strategy
I'm drafting 8 out of 10 in my money league this year. Tough spot to be in. What's your strategy? I've done a few mocks and predictably the stud QBs (Rodgers, Brady, Brees and sometimes Stafford) are gone as well as the RBs (Foster, McCoy, Rice, Johnson). I've seen MJD there but I'm apprehensive taking him in round 1. That might change between now and next week though. I've often taken Calvin #1 and top RB, QB or TE in round 2. I've heard some people going WR-WR this late. I don't know about that. WR is really deep this year. Love to hear other thoughts/strategies. PPR

Here's my latest Mock and the one I've been most pleased on with some notes:

----

R1: Calvin Johnson (I'm fine going with the #1 receiver in the league if I can't get a top shelf QB or RB)

R2: Jimmy Graham (a little high but if I want a top-tier TE I have to get one in R2 or wait a while for someone like Olson, Rudolph, Cook, Davis, etc.). Gronk has been here but I'm in the camp that he won't repeat his last monster season. Lloyd will draw some targets away as well. Graham, on the other hand, is Brees' #1 target and the Saints lost a target (Meachem) to FA. I think Graham just has a bit more upside in PPR.

R3: Jamaal Charles (I'm fortunate he lasted this long. I'm a bit concerned with Hillis in the mix and Charles coming off of injury but he's had a few more months to recover after ripping his knee early last year. Plus, I like his line. Especially over Murray's in Dallas, even though Murray is the unquestioned #1 guy)

R4: Brandon Marshall (Should produce big numbers reunited with Cutler).

R5: Matt Ryan (Probably a bit of a reach but I foresee big things from Ryan this year with all his weapons and a new offense featuring the pass and no-huddle. Plus, he's been rock solid in the preseason. Yes, I know it's the preseason. Still.)

R6: Reggie Bush (RB2 is probably my weakest postion. I don't love Reggie, but if Daniel Thomas struggles again then Bush will have good value. Plus, he's always a threat for receiving yards. Meh.)

R7: Pierre Garcon (featured receiver in Shanny's offense with likely some success with RGIII behind center. I'll take Garcon all day in round 7).

R8: Kevin Smith (Smith is pretty good value here will all the issues the Lions are having at RB. Obviously if/when Best/Leshoure returns it'll hurt him, but he still has value here, particularly early in the season)

R9: David Wilson (I'll know more after the game on Friday when Wilson gets some reps with the first-string unit whether or not he's worth it here. But my RBs are fairly weak and Wilson has solid upside if he's able to carve out a meaningful role this season.)

R10: RGIII (This year's Cam Newton? It's possible. Doesn't hurt to take a chance here, even though I'm confident in Ryan. Plus, if they're both studs, I can play matchup and this keeps RGIII out of an opponent's hands. I got leveled by some rushing QBs last season. Wouldn't be bad to have one of the alleged better ones on my side)

R11: Titus Young (reports out of camp are rock solid on the youngster. He just needs to somehow bypass Burleson to make snagging him here a real bargain. Even if he can't the Lions go three-wide as much or more than anyone in the league. I like taking high-upside guys this late)

R12: Justin Blackmon (I scored big last season taking a flier on A.J. Green around this slot. If Gabbert can repeat the last preseason game and the focus of the offense is the quick strike, Blackmon could be PPR gold. Again, I like his upside. Just wish he had gotten into camp earlier).

R13: Eagles D (By this time a couple of the top-shelf defenses like Houston were off the table. I probably went a round early but defense did end up winning me some games last season and the Eagles D should be improved from a year ago.)

R14: Kendall Wright (see: Blackmon, with the caveat that a lot probably hinges on Kenny Britt's status. But I like the upside.)

R15: Kyle Rudolph (Rudolph is Ponder's go-to guy. It could be debated he's his first read over Harvin. There's TE1 upside here. Any time I can get that type of production from a guy in the 15th round, I'm okay with it.)

R16: f*cking kicker

---
The more I look at this, the happier I am. I'd be thrilled with this team, actually. But a lot hinges on my RBs I suppose and my gut that Ryan or RGIII are going to have a great year.

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Last edited by dead_poet on Wed Aug 22, 2012 11:17 am, edited 1 time in total.



Wed Aug 22, 2012 11:12 am
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Post Re: Late drafting strategy
So the team would look like this:

QB: Matt Ryan
RB: Jamaal Charles
RB: Reggie Bush
WR: Calvin Johnson
WR: Brandon Marshall
TE: Jimmy Graham
Flex: Pierre Garcon
D: Eagles
K: Bironus

Bench:

Kevin Smith
David Wilson
RGIII
Titus Young
Justin Blackmon
Wright
Rudolph

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Wed Aug 22, 2012 11:16 am
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Post Re: Late drafting strategy
It's definitely not the worst draft ever but you're razor thin at RB in my opinion. Bush and Charles are both such gambles then Kevin Smith and the rookie. Of course I feel like you're very strong otherwise (mostly because you drafted positions other than RB high).

I would like to know which 7 players went first (then which 4 got taken before your next turn). Seems like one of the big QBs would have been open for your 1st or possibly 2nd pick.

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Wed Aug 22, 2012 12:14 pm
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Post Re: Late drafting strategy
Cliff wrote:
It's definitely not the worst draft ever but you're razor thin at RB in my opinion. Bush and Charles are both such gambles then Kevin Smith and the rookie. Of course I feel like you're very strong otherwise (mostly because you drafted positions other than RB high).

I would like to know which 7 players went first (then which 4 got taken before your next turn). Seems like one of the big QBs would have been open for your 1st or possibly 2nd pick.


Keep in mind that this was a mock. :)

First round (in this order): Aaron Rodgers, Arian Foster, Tom Bardy, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson (my pick), Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden.

Second round: Matt Forte, Maurice Jones-Drew, Jimmy Graham (my pick), Rob Gronkowski, Andre Johnson, Larry Litzgerald, Marshawn Lynch, Cam Newton, Roddy White

There's a chance that I take CJ, McFadden or MJD in round 2 if they're there. But that means losing out on one of the elite TEs. Forte scares me this high with Bush in the picture and Cutler having more options in the passing game. I want studs with my first two picks (ideally a QB and RB). I think my first round pick will come down to: Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Chris Johnson, McFadden, Forte or MJD. I don't see how Brees or Brady drop to 8 but I'm sure as heck scooping them up if they do. I've taken Stafford in a couple mocks in round 1, but I really think he and Ryan are going to be very close this season (provided both stay healthy) and I can get Ryan somewhere between rounds 4-6.

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Wed Aug 22, 2012 12:59 pm
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Post Re: Late drafting strategy
Cliff wrote:
It's definitely not the worst draft ever but you're razor thin at RB in my opinion. Bush and Charles are both such gambles then Kevin Smith and the rookie.


If this wasn't PPR, I probably wouldn't have selected Bush. But I got Bush in round 6 and the top running backs by then were: Bush, Helu, Stewart, Steven Ridley, BJE, Greene (Bradshaw went 4 spots ahead of my pick otherwise I likely would have selected him). I really have no desire to get caught up in Washington, Carolina or New England running games since they are so muddled and guys are canceling each other out. BJE is a possibility, though. I'm staying away from Greene. Doug Martin is there, but I'd wait another round or so. He didn't go until the top of round 8 here. That might change after seeing how the depth chart there shakes out.

Word is that Wilson is getting some reps with the first and second team units this week. If he performs well, we might see him eat into Bradshaw's reps (plus, Bradshaw has been hardly a poster boy for health). He's pretty talented. A lot will ride on how he performs in the last couple of preseason games. But I'm not counting on him to start. But he has good upside. Kevin Smith will be a three-down back at least early on (and possibly longer) and getting one of those in round 8 is pretty solid.

Charles is a bit of a gamble, but outside of Rice, McCoy and Foster that can be said about all of them. We're just talking about degrees. I'm more concerned about Hillis eating into his carries than I am about his injury recovery. Word around the campfire is he looks good.

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Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:12 pm
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Post Re: Late drafting strategy
I understand wanting to get a top end TE but you didn't think one would be there in round 3 or 4?

Quote:
Charles is a bit of a gamble, but outside of Rice, McCoy and Foster that can be said about all of them. We're just talking about degrees. I'm more concerned about Hillis eating into his carries than I am about his injury recovery. Word around the campfire is he looks good.


When did Peterson go in that draft? He would have been a steal in round 3 I think. I think Chris Johnson has to be the pick over Calvin Johnson there. The way RBs and QBs go in the first round you might have even scored Calvin in the 2nd since your pick was so early.

If not, your possible RB stable could have been Chris Johnson and either Matt Forte, MJD, or Charles.

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Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:36 pm
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Post Re: Late drafting strategy
Cliff wrote:
When did Peterson go in that draft? He would have been a steal in round 3 I think.


Middle of round 3. Three picks before I selected Charles.

Quote:
I think Chris Johnson has to be the pick over Calvin Johnson there. The way RBs and QBs go in the first round you might have even scored Calvin in the 2nd since your pick was so early.


After last season CJ scares me that high. It'll be a decision I have to make though. Doing another mock right now. Looks a lot different.

R1: Calvin Johnson
R2: Cam Newton
R3: Adrian Peterson
R4: Ryan Matthews
R5: Antonio Gates
R6: Percy Harvin
R7: Pierre Garcon
R8: Denarius Moore
R9: Kevin Smith
R10: Santonio Holmes (accidentally auto-picked) Would have selected Kenny Britt, David Wilson or RGIII
R11: RGIII (ha! Got him a round later)
R12: Justin Blackmon
R13: Blount
R14: Steelers
R15: Kyle Rudolph
R16: Hartley



QB: Cam Newton
RB: Adrian Peterson
RB: Ryan Matthews
WR: Calvin Johnson
WR: Percy Harvin
TE: Antonio Gates
Flex: Garcon
D: Steelers
K: Hartley

Bench:

Moore, Kevin Smith, Santonio Holmes (blech), RGIII, Blackmon, Blount, Rudolph

---
This mock I have better RBs, but I'll probably lose a few games early because they're both coming off injury and will get only a handfull of carries/game. I would've selected S-Jax over Matthews had he not gone one pick before my selection. So my starting running backs for the first couple of games might be Kevin Smith and Blount. Bleh.

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Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:03 pm
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Post Re: Late drafting strategy
Latest:

QB: Matt Ryan
RB: Matt Forte
RB: Steven Jackson
WR: Calvin Johnson
WR: Percy Harvin
TE: Fred Davis (got screwed twice when attempting to scoop up a TE later)
Flex: Ryan Matthews
D: Eagles
K: somebody

Bench: RGIII, Pierre Garcon, Antonio Brown, Britt, Blackmon, Wright, Rudolph

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Wed Aug 22, 2012 3:10 pm
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Post Re: Late drafting strategy
Where has Marshawn Lynch been going in your mocks? I know he's got that pending DUI charge but he's coming off a big year last year (1073 rushing 12 TD) and pretty much has the job to himself again this season.

EDIT: Nevermind, just saw late 2nd round in your earlier post.

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Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:11 pm
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Post Re: Late drafting strategy
I'm re-thinking my strategy after hearing that McFadden is getting all goal line carries this year. Seriously thinking about drafting him in round 1 and going top WR or TE at the top of R2. But if he gets injured at all he'll be out for a minimum 6 weeks. Has a high ceiling though.

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Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:59 pm
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Post Re: Late drafting strategy
Latest:

R1: Darren McFadden
R2: Jimmy Graham
R3: Hakeem Nicks
R4: Ryan Matthews
R5: Vincent Jackson
R6: Percy Harvin
R7: Pierre Garcon
R8: Ben Rothlesburger (If I want Matt Ryan, and I really do by this point, I really need to get him in R6, which is where I've been taking him. I don't mind Big Ben as they'll need to throw it plenty with their questionable ground game and they have some solid receivers if Wallace shows up. But Ryan should have a significantly better year.)
R9: Mark Ingram (I'd prefer to stay away from the Saints' RBBC so I'm not thrilled with this)
R10: RGIII (While I don't mind Big Ben, I covered myself by getting dual threat RGIII)
R11: Sidney Rice (An injury waiting to happen, but a potential WR1 or WR2 if he can manage to stay healthy. Risky, but it's the 11th round)
R12: Titus Young (Here it's either Young or Blackmon, but I selected Young this time around due to the buzz surrounding him)
R13: Andrew Luck (Flier territory and he's looked good so far)
R14: Steelers
R15: Rudolph
R16: Kicker
---

QB: Big Ben (or RGIII)
RB: Darren McFadden
RB: Ryan Matthews
WR: Hakeem Nicks
WR: Vincent Jackson
TE: Jimmy Graham
Flex: Percy Harvin
DEF: Steelers
K: Kicker

Bench:

Garcon, Ingram, Rice, Young, Luck, Rudolph

-This one wasn't ideal, as I tried holding out until round 7 for Matt Ryan and got burned. There were a few others I was targeting that were selected a spot or two ahead of me. I'm solid at WR, RB and TE with a decent QB (Big Ben) with the potential for better production out of the rookies. RB2 hinges a lot on Matthews, though. If he plays (and doesn't get injured) this one is pretty solid. But not ideal.

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Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:21 pm
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Post Re: Late drafting strategy
Just did what I think to be the most solid one yet.

QB: Matt Ryan
RB: Darren McFadden
RB: Steven Jackson
WR: Brandon Marshall
WR: Dez Bryant --- Too good of value in round 5 to pass up, even though this pick scares me a bit. I suppose the value and hype made me select him over DeSean Jackson, Vincent Jackson and Trent Richardson --would you get Dez here or one of the other guys?
TE: Jimmy Graham
Flex: Steve Johnson
Def: Eagles
K: Akers

Bench:

Jeremy Maclin, Doug Martin, Blount, Kenny Britt, Heyward-Bey, Kendall Wright, Kyle Rudolph

Thoughts on this vs. the others so far?

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Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:57 pm
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Post Re: Late drafting strategy
Last one for today. I'm not sure this should count since the person ahead of me was on auto-draft. They selected MJD over Brees, which 98% of people wouldn't do. But I was thrilled! I can't imagine losing many with this roster.

QB: Drew Brees
RB: Steven Jackson
RB: Willis McGahee
WR: Julio Jones
WR: Dwayne Bowe
TE: Jimmy Graham
Flex: Pierre Garcon
D: Steelers

Bench:

Doug Martin
Kenny Britt
Reggie Wayne
Justin Blackmon
Sidney Rice
Kendall Wright
Kyle Rudolph

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Wed Aug 22, 2012 10:36 pm
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Post Re: Late drafting strategy
Lynch won't be suspended until 2012 according to this Seattle newspaper. I like him early 2nd.

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Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:08 pm
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Post Re: Late drafting strategy
NextQuestion wrote:
Lynch won't be suspended until 2012 according to this Seattle newspaper. I like him early 2nd.


It'll probably come down to between him and McFadden. Both are risks, one for suspension the other for injury. I'd lean towards McFadden if I can get him in the second. More upside and I don't think Lynch can repeat last season's numbers.

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Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:15 pm
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Post Re: Late drafting strategy
Today's mock:

QB: Drew Brees
RB: Darren McFadden
RB: Steven Jackson
WR: Brandon Marshall
WR: Brandon Lloyd
TE: Antonio Gates
Flex: Pierre Garcon
D: Ravens
K: Kicker

Bench:

Doug Martin
Torrey Smith
Kenny Britt
David Wilson
Andrew Luck
Brandon LeFell
Kyle Rudolph

----
One of the best so far I think. WRs aren't studs, but I have ample potential studs and sit pretty with QB, TE and especially RB. I'd be happy with this.

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Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:53 am
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Post Re: Late drafting strategy
This might be the most realistic. Different than most.

QB: Matt Ryan
RB: Darren McFadden
RB: Adrian Peterson
WR: Jordy Nelson
WR: Antonio Brown
TE: Jimmy Graham
Flex: Ryan Matthews
D: Eagles
K: Kicker

Bench:

Toby Gerhart, Eric Decker, RGIII, Kenny Britt, Titus Young, Brandon LeFell, Kyle Rudolph

Just an FYI: After Blackmon's strong game last night he's been going a full round sooner than he had been even yesterday. He's going in round 11 from what I've seen.

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Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:38 am
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Post Re: Late drafting strategy
Another weird one. But I'll take it!

QB: Vick (lasted until round 6!)
RB: Darren McFadden
RB: Ryan Matthews
WR: Calvin Johnson
WR: Percy Harvin
TE: Gates
Flex: Doug Martin
D: Eagles
K: A white guy

Bench:

Eric Decker, RGIII, Kenny Britt, Justin Blackmon, Titus Young, Brandon LeFell, Kyle Rudolph

----
If I actually get this one (and everyone stays healthy) I don't see how I don't finish at least second.

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Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:12 pm
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Post Re: Late drafting strategy
I'd be worried sick if I had Vick and RGIII as my two QBs. But other than that I would be very pleased with that team. Great depth at WR, nice TE and backup TE. I really like Martin. TB has a good line for him to run behind and has good hands. Nice dual threat type back.

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Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:27 pm
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