2016 draft: Receivers

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Re: 2016 draft: Receivers

Post by nightowl » Thu Mar 17, 2016 10:00 am

VikingLord wrote:For me, Sheppard is the guy you draft who has the potential to be a 10 year starter at his position. That doesn't mean he'll be a star per se, but he is a guy who is going to make the team better and add stability. Is he going to be better than Jarius Wright in the slot? That's harder to say, but given what I know about him and what I've seen of him I'd say he'd be a great pickup circa the 3rd round if Spielman can manage it.

That said, he doesn't really solve the immediate need of a true #1 WR for the Vikings, and honestly, I'm not sure there is a guy in this draft who will solve that need. Doctson can go over the top and make plays, but he's not really a dominant prospect in terms of size or speed. Thomas strikes me as a guy who could develop, but is far from a sure bet and doesn't really flash anything I would say warrants the #23 slot. Ditto for Treadwell. I'm just not sold on WR at #23 in this draft. I think there will be better 10-year starter prospects at other positions when that pick comes around (several on defense), and I hope Spielman doesn't force a pick here. If he really loves a WR in this draft, he'd be better off staying pat at #23 and taking the BPA there, then maybe trying to move up into the top of the 2nd to get his WR IMHO.
The stereotype #1 WR doesn't exist in this draft. There are guys who do certain things well, but not one who does it all.

There's a conversation to be had regarding what a true #1 really is. To me a true #1 is a guy who can consistently be counted on to make plays all over the field. Being 6'2" doesn't seem to be a prerequisite given that the best WR in the league is Antonio Brown. Brown is 5'10" 190 same as Sterling Shepard, Steve Smith has been dominant for years and he's 5'9". Why couldn't Sterling Shepard do the same?

I think Shepard probably fits best with what an offense with Teddy should be doing anyway. Someone who can get open quickly with precise routes and make plays after the catch. I see alot of talk about needing somone who can catch jump balls, which is valuable, but still only a small portion of the game. Give me a guy who can get open consistently and be in the right place every time and I'll be happy.

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Re: 2016 draft: Receivers

Post by fiestavike » Thu Mar 17, 2016 10:27 am

nightowl wrote: The stereotype #1 WR doesn't exist in this draft. There are guys who do certain things well, but not one who does it all.

There's a conversation to be had regarding what a true #1 really is. To me a true #1 is a guy who can consistently be counted on to make plays all over the field. Being 6'2" doesn't seem to be a prerequisite given that the best WR in the league is Antonio Brown. Brown is 5'10" 190 same as Sterling Shepard, Steve Smith has been dominant for years and he's 5'9". Why couldn't Sterling Shepard do the same?

I think Shepard probably fits best with what an offense with Teddy should be doing anyway. Someone who can get open quickly with precise routes and make plays after the catch. I see alot of talk about needing somone who can catch jump balls, which is valuable, but still only a small portion of the game. Give me a guy who can get open consistently and be in the right place every time and I'll be happy.
Both types of WR could be valuable, but its the threat of the guy over the top that does help keep defenses from being able to just "play downhill" and opens up space underneath. Diggs is a great fit, because I think he shows the ability to attack the ball downfield and the ability to get open with good route running. He's not extremely tall, but he has a chance to be an excellent WR nonetheless.

Of course, given the inability to hit deep shots, the inability to protect the passer only compounds that problem. Its why the seahawks destroyed the vikings in their first meeting. They were able to have their whole defense play downhill ball, pressuring before routes could develop and smashing underneath routes the moment they opened up. To varying degrees we saw this from nearly every team able to muster a decent pass rush last season.

Mike Wallace wasn't the best fit because Mike Wallace doesn't have the ability to battle for the football. He doesn't have very good ball skills or hands. He is able to run under the football, and that's where he will be a better fit in BAL and PIT then he will ever be here. Teddy has shown himself to be erratic on downfield passes. He needs a WR with the catch radius and ball skills to create a much larger margin for error. Its possible that Diggs could be that guy. I had hoped Patterson would be further along in his development by now, but there is a slim chance that Patterson can at least contribute in that department. Andre Holmes would have been a nice fit to help out there. None of those guys are going to be the type of WR Norv Turner has had so much success with in previous stints, but they at least share some traits. It'll be interesting to see what else they try to do with that position. Josh Gordon was tweeting about who might be next, seeming to imply that he is expecting to possibly be cut. It would be interesting to see if the Vikings would take a flyer on him. His negatives are obvious, but if he comes available a reunion with Norv Turner might not be a bad career move for him.

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Re: 2016 draft: Receivers

Post by nightowl » Thu Mar 17, 2016 10:44 am

I'd be on board with Gordon for the right price.

I don't intend to diminish what a big jump ball guy can bring. In fact I wanted Holmes too. I mean more to highlight that there's a narrow view of what a #1 is, and that we shouldn't pigeon hole guys like Shepard into slot roles just because they're not 6 ft plus. I also don't want to see the Vikes force a pick again due to a need. That's how we ended up with Ponder.

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Re: 2016 draft: Receivers

Post by fiestavike » Thu Mar 17, 2016 11:09 am

nightowl wrote:I'd be on board with Gordon for the right price.

I don't intend to diminish what a big jump ball guy can bring. In fact I wanted Holmes too. I mean more to highlight that there's a narrow view of what a #1 is, and that we shouldn't pigeon hole guys like Shepard into slot roles just because they're not 6 ft plus. I also don't want to see the Vikes force a pick again due to a need. That's how we ended up with Ponder.
I agree with you on all those points. Styles make fights and fits make great players, so to speak. Shepard may be the best WR in the draft for all I know, and probably brings value in the way you describe, but I personally do think a guy in the mold of Vincent Jackson would be a huge asset for the Vikings given the way they are currently constructed (could that be Doctson or the guy from Ohio State?). Nonethless, I still view the WR position as secondary to the OL in this teams improvement. I've really liked what I've seen from Teddy on short and intermediate passes, and with regard to his poise, composure, toughness and accuracy in that range. Guys like Diggs and probably Shepard, who are very effective in that range would be weapons if there's enough time to throw, especially if its paired with a run game that commands respect. I think there's more than one way to skin a cat, and I don't even mind if they continue to bolster the defense instead of prioritizing the WR position...I just don't see how a repeat of last years offensive line performance can possibly allow this team to get to the next level. Boone is a good start, but I'm desperate to see them improve that unit.

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Re: 2016 draft: Receivers

Post by Jordysghost » Thu Mar 17, 2016 11:42 am

'Number 1 WR' is often used as a misnomer for an 'X' WR.
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Re: 2016 draft: Receivers

Post by nightowl » Thu Mar 17, 2016 12:41 pm

Jordysghost wrote:'Number 1 WR' is often used as a misnomer for an 'X' WR.
That's a good point, I hadn't looked at it that way. Thanks for the call out.

Though I do think most fans using the #1 term are thinking along the lines of #1 option or Lead Dog... I could be wrong though.

Fiesta;

Definitely agree on the oline being the biggest issue. Watching the Seattle game in the playoffs I kept waiting for them to intercept the snap because the penetration was so instantaneous.

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Re: 2016 draft: Receivers

Post by HardcoreVikesFan » Thu Mar 17, 2016 1:38 pm

Jordysghost wrote:'Number 1 WR' is often used as a misnomer for an 'X' WR.
Well, technically, the Z WR is supposed to be the number 'one' guy.

But really, it doesn't matter. I think most people define the number one as the guy who has the most production.
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Re: 2016 draft: Receivers

Post by Jordysghost » Thu Mar 17, 2016 2:21 pm

HardcoreVikesFan wrote: Well, technically, the Z WR is supposed to be the number 'one' guy.

But really, it doesn't matter. I think most people define the number one as the guy who has the most production.
You got that backwards, the X WR is typically designated the 'number 1' WR, while the Z WR is the flanker who plays off the Line of scrimmage.
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Re: 2016 draft: Receivers

Post by HardcoreVikesFan » Thu Mar 17, 2016 9:15 pm

Jordysghost wrote: You got that backwards, the X WR is typically designated the 'number 1' WR, while the Z WR is the flanker who plays off the Line of scrimmage.
Not necessarily. It depends on personnel and situation.

Split End is on the line of scrimmage and opposite of the tight end. Flanker (Z-receiver) is typically the number one guy cause he can play off the line - meaning he have more variety and typically doesn't face press coverage. Ideally, you want your split end to be able to block when you run 22, 13 personnel. However, you can throw the flanker out there at split end if you run play action out of a 22 or 13 set.

Ultimately, it depends on the personnel and situation on the field that dictate the positions. Ideally, in 11 personnel, or 21 personnel, etc. you want your number one guy to play off so he isn't jammed. However, if you are running 22 or 13, you want your number one at split end, or you want your best blocking receiver at split end.
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Re: 2016 draft: Receivers

Post by jackal » Fri Mar 18, 2016 8:16 am

The west coast I think could possibly change who the number one receiver is on a given play.
I know the 49ers had a lot of passes going to Brent Jones or Tom Rathman. With Rudolf and
McKinnon they could be the X receiver at times. I love Diggs but I have to admit I would love to
have a six foot plus speed threat that can play to the ball and catch. Who knows maybe Patterson
becomes the guy.
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Re: 2016 draft: Receivers

Post by Jordysghost » Fri Mar 18, 2016 9:19 am

But thats the thing, number 1 WRs are typically the 'X' WR, Julio, Calvin, Jordy, Dez, Demaryius, etc. etc.

I've never heard it taught otherwise anywhere else either, but I guess we will agree to disagree.
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Re: 2016 draft: Receivers

Post by dead_poet » Fri Mar 18, 2016 2:46 pm

Michael Thomas scouting report: http://bit.ly/MThomasScout
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Re: 2016 draft: Receivers

Post by Texas Vike » Fri Mar 18, 2016 8:04 pm

nightowl wrote: The stereotype #1 WR doesn't exist in this draft. There are guys who do certain things well, but not one who does it all.

There's a conversation to be had regarding what a true #1 really is. To me a true #1 is a guy who can consistently be counted on to make plays all over the field. Being 6'2" doesn't seem to be a prerequisite given that the best WR in the league is Antonio Brown. Brown is 5'10" 190 same as Sterling Shepard, Steve Smith has been dominant for years and he's 5'9". Why couldn't Sterling Shepard do the same?

I think Shepard probably fits best with what an offense with Teddy should be doing anyway. Someone who can get open quickly with precise routes and make plays after the catch. I see alot of talk about needing somone who can catch jump balls, which is valuable, but still only a small portion of the game. Give me a guy who can get open consistently and be in the right place every time and I'll be happy.
Shepard's a fine prospect, but he's not elite and he doesn't compliment what we already have very well. Jarius Wright is a pretty similar player and I don't see the need for two WRs of that type.

Another point to consider: other Big 12 WRs (Doctson, Coleman) put up MUCH bigger numbers against the same Ds. If Shepard's so good, why was his production so poor? The Sooners' QB was a bad ####, so he's not to blame! (As a Longhorn Alum that's hard to admit, but the kid can ball).

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Re: 2016 draft: Receivers

Post by dead_poet » Sat Mar 19, 2016 8:47 am

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Re: 2016 draft: Receivers

Post by dead_poet » Sat Mar 19, 2016 8:49 am

Texas Vike wrote: Shepard's a fine prospect, but he's not elite and he doesn't compliment what we already have very well. Jarius Wright is a pretty similar player and I don't see the need for two WRs of that type.

Another point to consider: other Big 12 WRs (Doctson, Coleman) put up MUCH bigger numbers against the same Ds. If Shepard's so good, why was his production so poor? The Sooners' QB was a bad ####, so he's not to blame! (As a Longhorn Alum that's hard to admit, but the kid can ball).
Huh?

In 2015 he played in all 14 games and had 86 receptions for 1,288 yards and 11 touchdowns.

That's poor?
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Re: 2016 draft: Receivers

Post by fiestavike » Sat Mar 19, 2016 9:24 am

Watching more Treadwell, he is growing on me. He's not as explosive at Doctson but he does a great job of making catches in traffic and high pointing the ball. Great athleticism doesn't always translate to being a better player. If both were on the board at 23, I'd be torn.

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Re: 2016 draft: Receivers

Post by Texas Vike » Sat Mar 19, 2016 9:36 am

dead_poet wrote:
Huh?

In 2015 he played in all 14 games and had 86 receptions for 1,288 yards and 11 touchdowns.

That's poor?

:lol: I can tell you're used to watching Big 10 ball! Doctson put up bigger numbers playing 2/3 of the season this year. Coleman had 20 TDs! It is all relative.

Even so, I didn't realize Shepard's numbers were so good for 2015. They certainly weren't poor. I saw a highlights video that showed only 51 receptions for two years in a row and less than a 1000 yards. The video must have been from after his 2014 season. I watched Shepard in 4 or so OU games this year. He didn't jump off the screen like some of the other WRs on the field in the Big 12.

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Re: 2016 draft: Receivers

Post by HardcoreVikesFan » Sat Mar 19, 2016 10:31 am

Texas Vike wrote:
:lol: I can tell you're used to watching Big 10 ball! Doctson put up bigger numbers playing 2/3 of the season this year. Coleman had 20 TDs! It is all relative.

Even so, I didn't realize Shepard's numbers were so good for 2015. They certainly weren't poor. I saw a highlights video that showed only 51 receptions for two years in a row and less than a 1000 yards. The video must have been from after his 2014 season. I watched Shepard in 4 or so OU games this year. He didn't jump off the screen like some of the other WRs on the field in the Big 12.
Texas Viking - I was going to respond to you in the FA thread, but I felt a response here was more appropriate.

To me, Corey Coleman is the BEST receiver in this draft. He has the speed, athleticism, and production. I know a lot of his production came against inferior defenses, but, his best game of the season, in my opinion, was probably the game against Ok. State. He only had 5 catches and 77 yards, but he also added 21 rushing yards on three carries. He showed during that game he could make the tough catches against a top defensive team. I have a personal anecdote about Coleman too, but, I believe that it would incorrect for me to share it at this time.

If this team really values analytics and athleticism, to me, Coleman will be the wide receiver taken at 23 (if they are indeed intending to draft a receiver). I am not sure what his SPARQ score was, but it should be high. I know this team values the SPARQ score come draft day.
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Re: 2016 draft: Receivers

Post by Texas Vike » Sat Mar 19, 2016 11:16 am

HardcoreVikesFan wrote: Texas Viking - I was going to respond to you in the FA thread, but I felt a response here was more appropriate.

To me, Corey Coleman is the BEST receiver in this draft. He has the speed, athleticism, and production. I know a lot of his production came against inferior defenses, but, his best game of the season, in my opinion, was probably the game against Ok. State. He only had 5 catches and 77 yards, but he also added 21 rushing yards on three carries. He showed during that game he could make the tough catches against a top defensive team. I have a personal anecdote about Coleman too, but, I believe that it would incorrect for me to share it at this time.

If this team really values analytics and athleticism, to me, Coleman will be the wide receiver taken at 23 (if they are indeed intending to draft a receiver). I am not sure what his SPARQ score was, but it should be high. I know this team values the SPARQ score come draft day.
Interesting to hear from a Coleman backer. The kid's put up crazy numbers and I know from watching him that he is more talented than previous Baylor WRs. But apropos of SPARQ scores, it looks like Doctson is the highest rated WR this year:
Excluding approximate results, the top 5 Combine WR SPARQ results belonged to Josh Doctson, Devon Cajuste, Chris Moore, Marquez North, and Trevor Davis.
But there is this, so you might end up being right:
Corey Coleman day will have to wait until the Baylor pro day. I have not lost the faith.
The rankings can be found here:
http://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings/wr/

Lastly, when I hear complaints about Big 12 defenses being inferior (especially when it's an SEC fan) I like to remind folks of what TCU did to Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl last year (42-3; Doctson had 2 TDs). Ole Miss had been the number 1 D for points allowed going into the game.
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Re: 2016 draft: Receivers

Post by fiestavike » Sat Mar 19, 2016 12:40 pm

Excluding approximate results, the top 5 Combine WR SPARQ results belonged to Josh Doctson, Devon Cajuste, Chris Moore, Marquez North, and Trevor Davis.
Cajuste interests me. He was faster than I thought he might be, and has some characteristics that could be valuable.

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Re: 2016 draft: Receivers

Post by dead_poet » Tue Mar 22, 2016 3:42 pm

I'm told former #TCU WR Josh Doctson has workouts and/or visits scheduled with the #Vikings, #Browns and #Bengals.
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Re: 2016 draft: Receivers

Post by jackal » Wed Mar 23, 2016 2:34 pm

Treadwell Fuller, Coleman are few wideouts worth a first round pick, IMO

Doctson I am not really sold on, I don't know why ?

second-third round guys I like are Boyd and Shepard

a later pick I favor is Lewis
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Re: 2016 draft: Receivers

Post by Jordysghost » Wed Mar 23, 2016 4:30 pm

WR are a dime a dozen, if you go with one in the first round, you better hope he is something special.
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Re: 2016 draft: Receivers

Post by fiestavike » Wed Mar 23, 2016 6:17 pm

Jordysghost wrote:WR are a dime a dozen, if you go with one in the first round, you better hope he is something special.
I'm surprised you would say that after the season the Packers had in 2015. It seemed like their lack of depth at WR really hurt them.

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Re: 2016 draft: Receivers

Post by Texas Vike » Wed Mar 23, 2016 6:27 pm

fiestavike wrote: I'm surprised you would say that after the season the Packers had in 2015. It seemed like their lack of depth at WR really hurt them.

Furthermore, the Pack has done well consistently drafting WRs in the early rounds (especially the 2nd). Over the last decade they made a genuine commitment to drafting the position and it showed on the field.

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Re: 2016 draft: Receivers

Post by Jordysghost » Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:50 pm

fiestavike wrote: I'm surprised you would say that after the season the Packers had in 2015. It seemed like their lack of depth at WR really hurt them.
No, our massive pile of injuries to the WR core hurt us.

Jordy was out for the year, Cobb missed significant time and played all year with a joint ac sprain Adams missed significant time and played most the year on an ankle injury, Montgomery missed nearly the entire year on an injury, that is our starting FOUR WRs, what the hell us would have happened? What team can survive losing their four top WRs? (This is ignoring our O line injuries coumpounding onto this problem)

If you think the Packers depth at WR is lacking you are going to be sorely dissapointed, do you remember that herculean effort by the Packers WRs at the end of the divisional playoff game? You realize that was with our 5th and 6th WRs taking up the role of number 1 and number 2 on account of injury, we were litterally that thin, Nelson, Cobb, Adams, Montgomery, all out.

Im not trying to be confrontational but I seriously doubt your entire healthy stable of WRs could do against the Cards secondary what our 5th and 6th WR did when thrust into starter role.
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Re: 2016 draft: Receivers

Post by Jordysghost » Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:53 pm

Texas Vike wrote:
Furthermore, the Pack has done well consistently drafting WRs in the early rounds (especially the 2nd). Over the last decade they made a genuine commitment to drafting the position and it showed on the field.
Which further supports my statement that WRs are a dime a dozen.

Im not opposed to a first round pick at WR, but he has to have a special kind of skill set that doesn't come along all to often. You can find quality WRs anywhere in the draft on a rather consistent basis, the same cant be said about the big guys.
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Re: 2016 draft: Receivers

Post by dead_poet » Wed Mar 23, 2016 8:20 pm

Jordysghost wrote:Which further supports my statement that WRs are a dime a dozen.

Im not opposed to a first round pick at WR, but he has to have a special kind of skill set that doesn't come along all to often. You can find quality WRs anywhere in the draft on a rather consistent basis
I'm not sure there's enough data there to make that sweeping generalization. Take a look at the link below where it's pretty clear you "hit" or have better productive value on WRs higher in the draft (rounds 1 (back half), 2, 3 and to an extent 7th as well). Rounds 4, 5, & 6 are particularly terrible). If you're talking "hit rate" in general, your odds go down the further you go in the draft (unsurprisingly). There's a pretty big jump down in all positions (receivers in particular) after round 2.
After the first 40 or so selections of the draft’s third day, the offensive skill position players are just about equivalent to priority undrafted free agents.
http://3sigmaathlete.com/2015/03/31/pos ... -drafting/

It's a fun read in general if you're a draft stats/numbers guy regarding positions-based value drafting.
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Re: 2016 draft: Receivers

Post by fiestavike » Wed Mar 23, 2016 8:58 pm

Jordysghost wrote: No, our massive pile of injuries to the WR core hurt us.

Jordy was out for the year, Cobb missed significant time and played all year with a joint ac sprain Adams missed significant time and played most the year on an ankle injury, Montgomery missed nearly the entire year on an injury, that is our starting FOUR WRs, what the hell us would have happened? What team can survive losing their four top WRs? (This is ignoring our O line injuries coumpounding onto this problem)

If you think the Packers depth at WR is lacking you are going to be sorely dissapointed, do you remember that herculean effort by the Packers WRs at the end of the divisional playoff game? You realize that was with our 5th and 6th WRs taking up the role of number 1 and number 2 on account of injury, we were litterally that thin, Nelson, Cobb, Adams, Montgomery, all out.

Im not trying to be confrontational but I seriously doubt your entire healthy stable of WRs could do against the Cards secondary what our 5th and 6th WR did when thrust into starter role.
I must have misunderstood. I agree injuries hurt the Packers. That's what I was saying. Especially to Jordy Nelson. I think the drop off after him is pretty massive, although Adams and Montgomery could improve, I don't find either one scary at this point. That's why I thought it was odd to say that WRs are a dime a dozen. There seemed to be a steep drop off with the loss of nelson.

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Re: 2016 draft: Receivers

Post by Jordysghost » Thu Mar 24, 2016 2:42 am

fiestavike wrote: I must have misunderstood. I agree injuries hurt the Packers. That's what I was saying. Especially to Jordy Nelson. I think the drop off after him is pretty massive, although Adams and Montgomery could improve, I don't find either one scary at this point. That's why I thought it was odd to say that WRs are a dime a dozen. There seemed to be a steep drop off with the loss of nelson.
I think that is more a product of Nelson being one of the better WRs in the league then anything, I mean, most teams with a player like Jordy don't have a guy on the same level on the other side.

I think it is far to early to judge Montgomery, he was a rookie and missed most of the year after showing encouraging potential. Adams is so up and down he could go any which way at this point.. but I don't think you have much to worry about there, jmo..

Alot of Packers fans are really, really hoping for Janis and Abbredairis to give us more of what they gave us in the divisional round as the top two guys, honestly, when it comes to Janis that was the most encouraging performance of any young player of the Packers in recent memory, I mean, he took Patrick Peterson to the #### woodshed in the 4th quarter of that playoff game in AZ. He has every physical tool you want, had a great preseason last year, but the Packers caught alot of heat from the fans for not getting him more snaps in the regular season last year, McCarthy seems adamant on reversing that so we will see, but really, if there was any young WR on the roster worthy of concern, it is him.

In my opinion, you got to get the big guys early if possible, It is significantly more difficult to find quality linemen then WRs, and really the 'skill positions' in general.
"Follow my lead today, whos goona be the big dog with me?" - Aaron Rodgers, February 6th, 2011

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