Drafting a Backup QB

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Mothman
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Re: Drafting a Backup QB

Post by Mothman » Thu Jan 15, 2015 4:24 pm

frosted wrote:Does anyone know the fail/pass rate on first round QBs?
Based on informal analyses I've read over the years, I think it's around 50%.
Obviously fail/pass is subjective, but I guess what I'm asking, is, historically, how risky is it to take a first round QB vs. other positions?

My initial thought would be that the bust factor is higher, but I hesitate to trust that instinct, since it's likely been slanted that way by other factors (the media, Ponder, etc.). Is perception reality? Or nah?
It probably depends on the position and I think a lot of other factors are at play as well, particularly what situation a player lands in when he gets to the NFL.
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The Breeze
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Re: Drafting a Backup QB

Post by The Breeze » Thu Jan 15, 2015 5:15 pm

frosted wrote:Does anyone know the fail/pass rate on first round QBs? Obviously fail/pass is subjective, but I guess what I'm asking, is, historically, how risky is it to take a first round QB vs. other positions?

My initial thought would be that the bust factor is higher, but I hesitate to trust that instinct, since it's likely been slanted that way by other factors (the media, Ponder, etc.). Is perception reality? Or nah?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This link is pretty easy to use to crunch #s http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldr ... e=position

It gives you several options to view.

Per your question it may be interesting to look at that on a team by team basis also....and for the first round in general despite the position. Who's judging/picking the talent?

For example the first two teams on the list: Atlanta and Arizona

Atlanta is almost perfect on 1st rd QBs IMO (some may disagree with Mike Vick and Chris Miller) where Arizona has had nothing in the way of success with 1st rd QBs. Luck and timing are factors of course....but I wonder about trends with teams.
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Re: Drafting a Backup QB

Post by The Breeze » Thu Jan 15, 2015 6:01 pm

cool link from 2012 http://www.sportsdatallc.com/2012/01/31 ... inning-qb/

The draft history of Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks reveals an extremely top-heavy distribution curve. You’d probably expect that many or most of these quarterbacks were first-round picks, but it might surprise you to learn that eight of the 29 Super Bowl winners were the first overall pick in their respective drafts, and those eight QBs have combined to win 15 Super Bowls, or 33 percent of all Lombardi Trophies.

Other statistics of note:

16 of the 29 Super Bowl-winning QBs were first-round picks
Those 16 first-round picks have combined to win 25 Super Bowls; e.g. 56 percent of all Super Bowls have been won by first-round picks


and here is a really detailed set of stats on a round by round study of QBs from 94-13:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-a ... rback-data



49 1st rd QBS:

The Good

Peyton Manning
Aaron Rodgers
Ben Roethlisberger
Philip Rivers
Matt Ryan
Andrew Luck
Eli Manning
Steve McNair
Chad Pennington
Matthew Stafford
Donovan McNabb
Carson Palmer
Daunte Culpepper
Cam Newton
Robert Griffin
Joe Flacco
Jay Cutler
Michael Vick
Alex Smith

The Undecided

Sam Bradford
Ryan Tannehill
Jake Locker
EJ Manuel


The Mediocre

Byron Leftiwch
Kerry Collins
Jason Campbell


The Ugly

Josh Freeman
Matt Leinart
Patrick Ramsey
Joey Harrington
Christian Ponder
Cade McNown
Tim Couch
Kyle Boller
David Carr
Brandon Weeden
J.P. Losman
Brady Quinn
Heath Shuler
Blaine Gabbert
Akili Smith
Jim Druckenmiller
JaMarcus Russell
Ryan Leaf

The Winning Ugly

Trent Dilfer
Vince Young
Tim Tebow
Mark Sanchez
Rex Grossman
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The Breeze
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Re: Drafting a Backup QB

Post by The Breeze » Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:14 pm

Cardale staying put at OSU. Hope he gets to play.
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Re: Drafting a Backup QB

Post by CbusVikesFan » Sat Jan 17, 2015 3:53 pm

A long time ago I wanted to pick up Jason Campbell. Comparing him to other recent QB's, he probably could have been the starter. I think he got a raw deal early in his career and he would have been a much better player with some stability in his career. I always liked his deep ball. (whoa, that's what she said!)

I think I said in an earlier thread that the Vikings need to address the backup position. Is Devlin still going to be good enough?
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Re: Drafting a Backup QB

Post by S197 » Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:52 pm

slapnut19 wrote:how many qbs drafted after the 2nd round are ever really ready to actually take over a team long term? it sounds great to draft a 5th round guy, develop him for three years and have him ready to start but that scenario rarely happens. also does cassel have an out clause in his current deal? even if he does i don't think he would be looking at a starting job on the open market and probably wouldn't come close to the 4.5 mil he could make here.
To me it's not so much that you need to find a franchise type guy, it just helps to have someone who can come in as a relief type player for a handful of games. I'd be pretty happy if the Vikings were able to find a guy like Kirk Cousins, someone who isn't going to be a superstar but is productive when he has to come off the bench. I think that's the type of guy you look for in the mid rounds and I think it's worth the pick.
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Re: Drafting a Backup QB

Post by mmvikes » Wed Feb 25, 2015 2:09 pm

This is one of the better conversations I have read in some time.
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Re: Drafting a Backup QB

Post by mmvikes » Wed Feb 25, 2015 2:12 pm

The Breeze wrote: I don't think long term is what you're looking for....but a guy who can come in without significant drop off until there is a long term solution for what ever situation created the need for plan B in the first place.

All of these guys are rd 3 or later and are who I would be happy with as a back up considering their talent. Several of which could have been traded for another piece had they not become starters for the team that drafted them:

Nick Foles, Russel Wilson, Kyle Orton, Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Colt McCoy, Matt Schaub, Josh McCown, David Garrard, Marc Bulger, Tom Brady, Matt Hasselback, Kordell Stewart, Rob Johnson, Jim Miller, Gus Frerotte, Mark Brunell, Trent Green, Elvis Grbac, Jeff Blake, Brad Johnson, Stan Humphries, Rich Gannon, Steve Beuerlein, Don Majkowski



The Vikings took Culpepper in 99 then didn't even draft another QB until Jackson in 06 which is when the QB position really became a problem. Culpepper got wrecked and they had zero backup plan at the games most critical position.

In the next 4 seasons they drafted Tyler Thigpen, John David Booty, then Joe Webb....before Ponder. They might have had something with Thigpen instead of Jackson. If Thigpen had been kept while Favre was around they may have never reached on Ponder. Who knows? The point is not to leave yourself in a desperate situation if you can help it.


Favre showed up in GB in 92...since then here is the list of QBs they drafted:

Brunell 93
Jay Barker 95
Kyle Wachholtz 96
Matt Hasselback 98
Aaron Brooks 99
Craig Nall 02
Aaron Rodgers 05
Ingle Martin 06
Matt Flynn and Brian Brohm 08
BJ Coleman 12

Brunell was traded after two seasons for 5th and 7th rd picks.....Travis Jervey RB made the probowl on special teams for GB and Adam Timmerman G who made a probowl and was a 4 time alternate and played in 4 superbowls.

Matt Hassleback was traded after 3 seasons in a deal that netted GB Seattle's 1st and 3rd ...they took DE Jamal Reynolds #10 overall, and ILB Torrance Marshal, both busts...haha GB!

Aaron Brooks was traded for a 3rd rd pick.....Bhawoh Jue DB he was GBs own defensive ROY career; cut short by injuries

New England has a similar QB draft history through the Bledsoe Brady eras, drafting 10 Qbs in that stretch.

The Pats got starting Safety Patrick Chung (#34overall) when they dealt Cassel and also had a deal for a first rounder through Denver which they passed on.

Ryan Mallet was traded for a 2016 6-7 rd pick and became a starter for Houston before getting hurt.

Using these two teams as a model for drafting at the postion in spite of having a HoFer already under center. Both GB and NE have drafted more QBs than the Vikings over those respective stretches and in some cases parlayed them into more picks.

They seem to draft a guy every couple of seasons or so and it's not usually a guy who is a big project...but someone who they think will fit their system and be a competent backup. They invest at the position even when they have the starter nailed down.

I think it's a good idea.
Excellent post Breeze. I like your take on this.
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Re: Drafting a Backup QB

Post by mmvikes » Tue Mar 03, 2015 2:26 pm

I am interested to see what round we draft a QB this year. I would be surprised to see one in the first 3 rounds. I would also be surprised if we waited until the 7th round. It is a little tougher with only 7 picks, but RS is likely to find a way to pick up at least a few mid and later round picks.
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Re: Drafting a Backup QB

Post by PurpleKoolaid » Thu Mar 05, 2015 7:17 pm

Well based on what happened with Cassell, the vikings look like their usually plan about QB'S is the same as its been since I've been alive. Maybe have 1 decent one (in their eyes) and then whatever drops in their lap. Maybe they told #7 they were getting rid of Cassel, and if he stayed around, he could get the backup job AND a baby horsie. If the Vikings have shown anything over the passed decade or 2 it, you just need a number 1 QB. Just grab a WR or maybe LB if someone to play the position later.
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44crm
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Re: Drafting a Backup QB

Post by 44crm » Wed Mar 11, 2015 7:12 pm

The Breeze wrote:Looks like Cardale is going to declare:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/sto ... ide-future


Not only would he be a possible backup QB but he would probably be a beast at full back or LB :lol:
I would love to have Cardale sit behind Teddy Bridgewater. I am a Ducks fan and I watched that kid destroy the Ducks. I couldn't help but think to myself from that day on that he would be a nice late round grab if he ends up declaring for the draft his year.
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Re: Drafting a Backup QB

Post by fiestavike » Wed Mar 11, 2015 7:20 pm

44crm wrote: I would love to have Cardale sit behind Teddy Bridgewater. I am a Ducks fan and I watched that kid destroy the Ducks. I couldn't help but think to myself from that day on that he would be a nice late round grab if he ends up declaring for the draft his year.
I like Cardale a lot better than Winston or Mariota.
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Re: Drafting a Backup QB

Post by 44crm » Wed Mar 11, 2015 7:35 pm

fiestavike wrote: I like Cardale a lot better than Winston or Mariota.
I love Mariota, but I also prefer Cardale over Winston, due to the draft pick it would take to get Winston and all the nonsense surrounding him.
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