Who do we draft?

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kurtkeoki
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Re: Who do we draft?

Post by kurtkeoki » Fri Apr 17, 2015 1:21 pm

dead_poet wrote: I think it depends on how they view their current WRs. It's such a weird roster of guys. So much potential but nothing is really set, especially for 2016 and beyond.

On one hand Wallace could be one-and-done, Patterson could be a return specialist only, Johnson could see his ceiling as a #3 guy and Wright could left to test the market next year. In that scenario, taking a "stud" WR at 11 makes complete sense, especially if you think he's going to be an A.J. Green type of player in the next couple of years.

On the other hand, Wallace-Bridgewater-Turner combo could be lethal (enough to satisfy Wallace for a few years and keep him happy and producing), Patterson could turn it around and unseat Johnson, Johnson could be a legitimate "diamond in the rough" and the Vikings could have 3-4 incredibly productive and quality receivers for Teddy. In that case, can a case be made for drafting Parker at 11, even retrospectively?

I think if Cooper is there, you may have to take him based on your player grades (I assume). Maybe they have Parker ranked that high, who knows. I think the "need level" for WR really depends on how you (and the Vikings) view the potential/quality currently on the roster. While Parker is highly intriguing, how is he ranked compared to others that might be there? And there's really no guarantee he will be that "#1 WR" that will unseat Johnson or Patterson. Taking a WR at 11, for me, would further muddy the waters at receiver. Who's the odd man out? There aren't enough reps to go around in practice or targets in games (you're not going to run four-wide all game). Or do you sit a guy like Cooper and/or Parker for a year to learn while you see how the rest of the guys shake out? Is that smart? Would that stunt development?

My feeling is that unless Cooper is there (unlikely), we probably wait to select a WR until after the first round. And I would think (hope?) protecting Teddy takes precedence over another weapon. Though I know Rick has a history of not taking interior offensive linemen early.
If we take a WR at #11, I'm sure it will be with the intention of that player starting this year. Sure, Wright has shown some flashes and Johnson played well down the stretch, but if we take a WR that high we have to be reasonably confidant it will be our #2 guy behind Wallace. If Wright and Johnson play lights out in training camp and the preseason and keep our first round pick off the field, that's one thing, but i doubt that happens.

My prediction as of right now is Beasley. He might not be rated that high by the media, but neither was Barr. If we feel that we can make him fit our defense, then he's a Spielman guy. When asked about taking Patterson and Barr the last two years, Spielman said something along the lines of not passing up those physical freaks, because they are so hard to find. Beasley is both a freak and a productive college player, much like Barr. Now, he might be too similar to Barr, in which case we might pass, but if Zimmer and Spielman come to the conclusion that both can be on the field much of the time, I think he's the pick. If he's not there, then I think we trade down. As much as I love the idea of Sherff, I assume the Vikings have a plan for LG, either by waiting to see if someone is cut, or by addressing it later in the draft, or possibly if they think Yankey is ready.
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Re: Who do we draft?

Post by S197 » Fri Apr 17, 2015 2:46 pm

I guess I'm not as high on Wright as a lot of people, he seems to disappear for long stretches at a time. I see lots of reports about how great he looks in camp and shows flashes in games but he lacks the consistency that you would like to see by now. That combined with the uncertainty with Johnson and Patterson leads me to believe a round 1 or 2 WR might be prudent.
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Re: Who do we draft?

Post by Mothman » Fri Apr 17, 2015 5:11 pm

S197 wrote:I guess I'm not as high on Wright as a lot of people, he seems to disappear for long stretches at a time.


I think a lot of that is because he's out of the game for fairly long stretches of time.
I see lots of reports about how great he looks in camp and shows flashes in games but he lacks the consistency that you would like to see by now.
Honestly, with the exception of Jennings, I thought he was the most consistent WR on the team last year. I'm surprised they haven't made him a bigger part of game plans the last few years. The guy seems to produce when called upon.
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Re: Who do we draft?

Post by S197 » Fri Apr 17, 2015 6:49 pm

Mothman wrote:I think a lot of that is because he's out of the game for fairly long stretches of time.
Chicken or the egg. He's been here 3 years and while he's getting on the field more often, it's still nothing to write home about. He's a 2TD per season player who occasionally breaks a big play.
Honestly, with the exception of Jennings, I thought he was the most consistent WR on the team last year. I'm surprised they haven't made him a bigger part of game plans the last few years. The guy seems to produce when called upon.
I'll give that one to Charles Johnson. Their stats are similar but it seemed like Bridgewater leaned on Johnson more in critical situations. They certainly had a chemistry. I recall Johnson being open and Bridgewater unable to hit him on a couple of big plays too.

Seeing as how Johnson was only here for a year, he gets the benefit in my mind over Wright. I'm not saying Wright is a bad player, just that I don't think he's really integral to the future success of the team as others may feel.
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Re: Who do we draft?

Post by Mothman » Fri Apr 17, 2015 7:39 pm

S197 wrote: Chicken or the egg. He's been here 3 years and while he's getting on the field more often, it's still nothing to write home about. He's a 2TD per season player who occasionally breaks a big play.
I think that minimizes his contribution. Do you realize he was targeted just 3 more times than Johnson last year but caught a considerably higher percentage of the passes thrown his way (42 of 62—68%) and gained more yardage? Johnson gets talked about more but I'd argue that Wright was actually the more effective player. I don't see much "chicken and the egg" in his situation. When he's on the field and targeted, he's usually productive.
I'll give that one to Charles Johnson. Their stats are similar but it seemed like Bridgewater leaned on Johnson more in critical situations. They certainly had a chemistry. I recall Johnson being open and Bridgewater unable to hit him on a couple of big plays too.

Seeing as how Johnson was only here for a year, he gets the benefit in my mind over Wright. I'm not saying Wright is a bad player, just that I don't think he's really integral to the future success of the team as others may feel.
I wouldn't say either player is integral to the team's future success but that's a different criteria than playing consistently, which is what I thought we were talking about. :)
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Re: Who do we draft?

Post by S197 » Fri Apr 17, 2015 9:51 pm

Mothman wrote: I think that minimizes his contribution. Do you realize he was targeted just 3 more times than Johnson last year but caught a considerably higher percentage of the passes thrown his way (42 of 62—68%) and gained more yardage? Johnson gets talked about more but I'd argue that Wright was actually the more effective player. I don't see much "chicken and the egg" in his situation. When he's on the field and targeted, he's usually productive.
It's a chicken or the egg situation because is he not productive enough to see the field more often or is he not on the field enough to be more productive? Like I said, he and Johnson are statistically similar with the big difference being that Wright has been in the NFL for 3 years whereas Johnson has been playing for 1 (practice squad aside).
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Re: Who do we draft?

Post by Mothman » Sat Apr 18, 2015 8:36 am

S197 wrote:It's a chicken or the egg situation because is he not productive enough to see the field more often or is he not on the field enough to be more productive?
I understood why you were referring to it that way. I just disagreed because, as I pointed out, he was productive when he was on the field.
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Re: Who do we draft?

Post by fiestavike » Sat Apr 18, 2015 2:09 pm

kurtkeoki wrote:
If we take a WR at #11, I'm sure it will be with the intention of that player starting this year. Sure, Wright has shown some flashes and Johnson played well down the stretch, but if we take a WR that high we have to be reasonably confidant it will be our #2 guy behind Wallace. If Wright and Johnson play lights out in training camp and the preseason and keep our first round pick off the field, that's one thing, but i doubt that happens.

My prediction as of right now is Beasley. He might not be rated that high by the media, but neither was Barr. If we feel that we can make him fit our defense, then he's a Spielman guy. When asked about taking Patterson and Barr the last two years, Spielman said something along the lines of not passing up those physical freaks, because they are so hard to find. Beasley is both a freak and a productive college player, much like Barr. Now, he might be too similar to Barr, in which case we might pass, but if Zimmer and Spielman come to the conclusion that both can be on the field much of the time, I think he's the pick. If he's not there, then I think we trade down. As much as I love the idea of Sherff, I assume the Vikings have a plan for LG, either by waiting to see if someone is cut, or by addressing it later in the draft, or possibly if they think Yankey is ready.
Its a good consideration. The Vikings would most likely be giving up on Wright and/or Patterson if they select a WR at 11. I'm not saying they shouldn't give up on one of those two, but realistically they aren't going to be running a lot of 5 WR sets.

I think the Vikings perceive themselves as stronger at the WR position than most others do. It will be telling if they end up selecting a WR at 11.
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Re: Who do we draft?

Post by Mothman » Sat Apr 18, 2015 6:26 pm

dead_poet wrote:I think if Cooper is there, you may have to take him based on your player grades (I assume). Maybe they have Parker ranked that high, who knows. I think the "need level" for WR really depends on how you (and the Vikings) view the potential/quality currently on the roster. While Parker is highly intriguing, how is he ranked compared to others that might be there? And there's really no guarantee he will be that "#1 WR" that will unseat Johnson or Patterson. Taking a WR at 11, for me, would further muddy the waters at receiver. Who's the odd man out? There aren't enough reps to go around in practice or targets in games (you're not going to run four-wide all game). Or do you sit a guy like Cooper and/or Parker for a year to learn while you see how the rest of the guys shake out? Is that smart? Would that stunt development?
I got wrapped up in discussing wright and forgot to respond to your post!

I don't think sitting a player like Cooper or Parker for a year would stunt development but we both know that wouldn't happen anyway. If the Vikes draft Cooper or Parker, that player is going to play. he might not start immediately, but they'll work him in and use him.
My feeling is that unless Cooper is there (unlikely), we probably wait to select a WR until after the first round. And I would think (hope?) protecting Teddy takes precedence over another weapon. Though I know Rick has a history of not taking interior offensive linemen early.
He does and even if protecting the QB takes precedence over adding another weapon, they're obviously not mutually exclusive options and in the draft, talent often outweighs need, especially in R1.

I think there's very little chance Cooper will be available at #11 so i doubt that's a decision the Vikes will face. If Parker's available, I consider the "wildcard" in that situation to be his extensive playing experience with Bridgewater. It's one thing to add a WR to the roster with the 11th pick in the draft but it's another to add one with years of previously established chemistry with your quarterback. I have to believe that's something the Vikes have seriously considered as part of their evaluation and rankings.
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Re: Who do we draft?

Post by Mothman » Sat Apr 18, 2015 6:41 pm

fiestavike wrote:Its a good consideration. The Vikings would most likely be giving up on Wright and/or Patterson if they select a WR at 11. I'm not saying they shouldn't give up on one of those two, but realistically they aren't going to be running a lot of 5 WR sets.
No, but I don't think it necessarily means they'd be giving up on either player. Wright's a role-player in the first place so keeping him as one makes sense and if they remain genuinely interested in developing Patterson, increasing competition and taking some pressure off of him to become "the man" might actually be beneficial to everyone involved.

Wallace is expensive so I suspect he's basically in a "prove your worth" season. If the Vikes don't feel he's worth the hefty price tag after 2015, they can cut him with no real cap repercussions, especially if Patterson and/or Johnson showed progress and if the hypothetical first round WR we're talking about was developing nicely. Wright's contract is up after this season so if they wanted to keep Wallace or just didn't feel there was room for Wright on the roster in 2016, they could just let him walk in free agency.

As you said, the Vikes probably aren't going to run many 5 WR sets but they could certainly run plenty of 3 or 4 WR sets and adding Parker while retaining Wallace, Wright, Patterson and johnson could give them a great deal of flexibility and potential firepower at WR.
I think the Vikings perceive themselves as stronger at the WR position than most others do. It will be telling if they end up selecting a WR at 11.
I think you're probably right about the way the Vikings perceive their WR corps. That's why, for me, it's Parker's history with Bridgewater that's so intriguing. The Vikes have spoken in glowing terms about Bridgewater from the start and Zimmer's clearly very high on the kid. Would drafting his favorite college target help accelerate his development by providing him with a talented and familiar option and if so, how much of a priority is that for the Vikings?

In the end, they'll probably draft a defensive player and this will all be moot but it's interesting to consider. :)
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Re: Who do we draft?

Post by John_Viveiros » Sat Apr 18, 2015 8:09 pm

Regarding all this wide receiver talk, I'm of two minds. We have a nice variety of weapons - a potential #1 guy in Johnson (or Patterson if he gets his act together) a good speed guy in Wallace, a good third and fourth set in Wright and Thielen. So I was originally thinking we should pass on some of the riskier guys, taking only Cooper if he was available at #11.

But now I'm rewatching the season (somewhere around game 12 now) and I really don't like Charles Johnson's chemistry so far with Bridgewater. I know I've got some games to go here, but he looked more like a #3 guy (bobbles, gave up on some plays, maybe ran bad routes and wasn't where Teddy expected him to be, etc.). Taking Norv's word for it, I guess he'll be our best guy by the end of the season, but at the beginning of December in last season, I'm just not seeing it. So that makes me think grabbing White or Parker might not be a bad move.

I know we want to go BPA most times, but at that point, so many guys must have similar grades, so there can be options even with a BPA approach.

Of course, Scherff is the perfect choice IMHO. Fills the guard spot, and can slide to tackle if Kalil doesn't get fixed. I could see trading up with the Rams to get him by flipping positions if the price isn't too high. And I assume he's more or less a local guy.
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Re: Who do we draft?

Post by Mothman » Sun Apr 19, 2015 1:39 pm

Here's a fun quote from Rick Spielman to keep everybody guessing:

http://www.startribune.com/sports/vikin ... 57651.html
You’d think this national obsession with analyzing the NFL draft would produce someone who actually knows all that will happen when the three-day selection show kicks off in Chicago on April 30.

You’d be wrong.

“There will be a number of surprises, particularly in this draft because so many guys are so close in talent,” Vikings General Manager Rick Spielman said. “I know just reading through some of the mock drafts, there are some names we’re considering at No. 11 that haven’t even been mentioned. And then there are names attached to us that I don’t think we’d even consider at 11.”

Of course, one should remember it is draft season. Sleight of mouth, not full disclosure, is the more sensible method of communication for the 32 men entrusted with the highly competitive duty of restocking an NFL team’s 53-man roster.

“I talk to a lot of people, but I’ll be frank,” draft analyst Charles Davis said. “I don’t know that I trust anybody right now. I don’t mean that they’re lying, but no one wants to tip their hand. So we shall see what happens.”
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Re: Who do we draft?

Post by HardcoreVikesFan » Sun Apr 19, 2015 2:07 pm

Mothman wrote:Here's a fun quote from Rick Spielman to keep everybody guessing:

http://www.startribune.com/sports/vikin ... 57651.html
I think Spielman is tell the truth. I remember last year he said pretty much the exact same thing - as hardly anyone had us taking Anthony Barr.
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Re: Who do we draft?

Post by Mothman » Sun Apr 19, 2015 3:53 pm

[quote="HardcoreVikesFan"]think Spielman is tell the truth. I remember last year he said pretty much the exact same thing - as hardly anyone had us taking Anthony Barr.[/quote

I had the same thought. It really makes you wonder what they might have up their collective sleeve, eh?
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Re: Who do we draft?

Post by HardcoreVikesFan » Sun Apr 19, 2015 4:30 pm

Mothman wrote:
My guess would be either someone like La'el Collins or Danny Shelton. Maybe Randy Gregory. Then again, I still expect Trae Waynes to come off the board when we pick - even though I wish we would pass on him.
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