VikingLord wrote:Fair enough, but it does leave a big question mark as to how effective Carr can be on deeper throws. And by "deeper throws", in Carr's case we're talking about throws past 6 yards. That's not really "deep" in the classic sense, but that is where his numbers dip relative to his peers in this year's draft class, and it gets worse as he goes deeper.
You seem way too focused on the numbers in that Rotoworld article which, as the article itself states, are meant to be a complement to actual film study of the players, not to stand on their own ("The data here can’t render an opinion for you, but it can provide an effective complement to your knowledge on a prospect"). Carr's completion percentage on throws in the 11-20 yard range is fine by both NFL standards and in relation to his college peers. Without more information, it's impossible to know why his completion percentage on throws of 20+ yards is 7% below average (whatever "average" is... I don't recall the article stating how that was determined). The article does state that the numbers have been adjusted for drops, which introduces a subjective element into the equation. There's also the question of why passes were incomplete. How many throws over 20 yards were well-placed but broken up? How many were thrown away? How many were actually poorly thrown? How much did the quality of the receiving targets figure into the numbers for the various QBs? Manziel completed 69 passes to 6' 5" Mike Evans. Somehow I think having an elite receiver that size had an impact on his deep passing numbers.
The questions above just underline why numbers like those in the rotoworld are a complementary tool at best and not something from which to draw firm conclusions.
It just goes back to the risk-reward equation in my view and the need for teams to be able to reduce the questions they have in top draft picks, especially at QB where a bad decision can be greatly magnified. If Fresno State played the short game to win that's great for them, and maybe Carr is going to be a beast with the deep ball in the pros, but the evidence we have suggests otherwise, at least compared to his peers in this year's draft class. Drafting a guy with a huge question mark on what I consider to be a critical ability at the pro level would be incredibly foolish on Spielman's part. He'd be wagering that Carr's issues with deeper passes were indeed a product of the system he plays in rather than Carr himself. That's a big risk to take after the Ponder debacle.
I don't think Carr has significant issues with deeper passes and what issues he has seem to me to be primarily a result of impatience and footwork. I've been watching him quite a bit because he seems like a genuine possibility for the Vikes and at times, he can look too eager or impatient to make a throw and fail to get himself properly aligned before he releases the ball. However, there's ample evidence that he can throw the deep ball well, both on film and in various assessments of his performance you can find online. Consider the
following from former NFL scout Greg Gabriel:
Carr has very good arm strength. He can easily throw the ball 55 yards and his deep ball accuracy is excellent. I like his his ball placement. He consistently puts the ball where receivers can get yards after the catch and where the ball can’t get intercepted. He shows touch and accuracy on all different throws.
While he throws a lot of short passes, Carr can make all the throws needed to be an NFL QB. He can throw deep outs and corner routes as well as seams and flies. Like I said earlier, on his deeper throws, his accuracy and ball placement is excellent.
... or this from
Rob Rang:
NFL-caliber arm strength to sling the ball all over the field, with the ability to throw the deep fade and fire passes into tight windows. Shows the ability to square his shoulders and fire passes with velocity and accuracy. Demonstrates a combination of arm strength, accuracy and underrated athleticism. Astute ability to read coverages and recognize pressure at the line of scrimmage with several pre-snap adjustments based on obvious film study.
Anyway, Carr is an intriguing prospect, and I hope he lands on a team that can give him time to develop as a pro without pressuring him into a starting role. As I said above, the Vikings just aren't that team right now.
That's really up to the Vikings. As we've discussed before, pressure from the public or not, if they draft a QB they believe in but they don't feel he should start immediately, they don't have to start him immediately.
