2014 Mock drafts/Big boards

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frosted
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Re: 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards

Post by frosted »

No problem, helps familiarize myself with some of these guys as well.

First the Scouts, Inc. total prospect grading scale:

90-100 Rare Prospect
Player demonstrates rare abilities and can create mismatches that have an obvious impact on the game. Is a premier college player that has all the skill to take over a game and play at a championship level. He rates in the top 5 players in the nation at his position and is considered a first round draft prospect.
80-89 Outstanding Prospect
Player has abilities to create mismatches versus most opponents in the NFL. A feature player that has an impact on the outcome of the game. Cannot be shut down by a single player and plays on a consistent level week in and week out. He rates in the top 10 at his position and is considered a second round draft prospect.
70-79 Solid Prospect
Still a standout player at the college level that is close to being an elite player. He has no glaring weaknesses and will usually win his individual matchups, but does not dominate in every game, especially when matched up against the top players in the country. He will usually rate in the top third of players at his position and is considered a third round draft prospect.
60-69 Good Prospect
This player is an good starter that will give a solid effort week in and week out, but he is overmatched versus the better players in the nation. His weaknesses will be exposed against top competition. He is usually a prospect that is missing something from his game. For example, he has the size and skills to be an outstanding prospect, but lacks the speed. He will usually rate in the top half of the players at his position and is considered a middle round draft choice.
50-59 Adequate Prospect
These are usually players that play at a high level in college, but lack some measurables or skills to play at that same level in the NFL. He may be a player that has a lot of developmental qualities, or could be a player that will contribute right away on special teams or in a situational capacity. He will usually rate in the second-third at his position and is considered a fifth round draft choice.
21-49 Borderline Draft Prospect
These are players that teams like something about, but certainly do not have the full package in terms of NFL talent. A lot of times, teams will take chances on character players or developmental type athletes with this grade. And often, these are players that come from smaller schools or did not standout at the college level. NFL teams are looking for 'diamonds in the rough' with this type of prospect. He will usually rate in the bottom third of players at his position and will be considered a late round draft choice or un-drafted free agent.
20 Free Agent Prospect
These are players that did not make our original 'evaluation list' but are prospects that need to be monitored. Especially in the pre-season, these players will fluctuate up and down depending on performance in their final year of eligibility.
10 Not a legitimate Prospect
These are players that lack NFL measurables and/or skills. They are players that we feel would not even make a solid contribution as a training camp body.


Here is their (Scouts, Inc.) top ten for quarterbacks - I am not sure when these grades/ranks were last updated:

1. Teddy Bridgewater (93)
2. Blake Bortles (92)
3. Johnny Manziel (90)
4. AJ McCarron (85)
5. Zach Mettenberger (79)
6. Jimmy Garoppolo (69)
7. Logan Thomas (66)
8. Aaron Murray (60)
9. Derek Carr (55)
10. Stephen Morris (52)


Individual category break down grading scale is as follows:

1 = EXCEPTIONAL
2 = ABOVE AVERAGE
3 = AVERAGE
4 = BELOW AVERAGE
5 = MARGINAL


Derek Carr (Scouts Grade: 55)
6-2⅛, 215 lbs

Overall Football Traits

Production: 2 2009: (5/0)- 10-14-71.4-112-0-0 2010: Redshirted 2011: (13/13)- 279-446-62.6-3,544-26-9 2012: (13/13)- 344-511-4,104-67.3-37-7

Height-Weight-Speed: 3 Slightly shorter than average but well within QB parameters. Athletic build. Needs to add bulk to frame. Also has small hand-span. Displays above average top-end speed for position.

Durability: 4 Has proven to be durable by starting all 26 games the past two seasons (2011-12). Showed toughness late in 2012 playing through sports hernia injury, which required off-season surgery. Needs to add body mass and strength to frame.

Intangibles: 1 Outstanding intangibles. Elite work ethic. Eats, drinks, breathes football. No character or behavior concerns. Married (Heather) on June 29, 2012. One of three sons of Rodger and Sheryl Carr. Both both brothers, Darren and David, played DI football. David was QB at Fresno State and No. 1 overall NFL draft selection (Texans) in 2002. Darren was a defensive lineman at Houston.

Quarterback Specific Traits

Mental Makeup : 2 Very good football intelligence. Has great command of offense and continues to get more freedom at line of scrimmage. Fits best in West Coast system. Decisive. At his best getting ball out quickly and generating run-after-catch opportunities for pass catchers. Has fast eyes. Goes through progressions quickly. Above average decision maker. Occasionally tries to do too much and will force the ball.

Accuracy: 3 When in rhythm, shows good accuracy short-to-intermediate. High percentage of throws studied in four games (from 2012 season) were within 10 yards of line of scrimmage. Slightly below average accuracy when forced to throw off-platform. Anticipation is below average and needs to improve. Gets a bit hyperactive with feet once mental alarm clock sounds and can miss within strike zone on some shorter throws as a result. Does a nice job of tying his feet to eyes when going through progressions, which allows him to make quick and accurate throws. Accuracy on deep ball was below average on limited views from 2012 tape study (four games). Bad habit of chucking-and-ducking on vertical throws. Needs to hang in pocket, transfer weight from front to back, and follow through (even if it requires taking a big hit).

Release/Arm Strength: 3 Good ball carriage. Has quick, compact delivery. Get snap ball off quickly when necessary. Gets a lot of RPMs on ball but not quite as much zip as it seems. Still, can get above average velocity on deep outs when he steps follows through and gets proper hip rotation. Can get the ball downfield with a good trajectory but only if his mechanics are sound. Does not have the elite arm to drive ball vertically off back foot, which he attempts to do far too often. Punt-like hang time when he doesn't transfer weight on deep ball.

Pocket Mobility: 3 Has adequate pocket presence. Good tempo; sudden with feet and eyes. Excels at making quick reads and getting ball out of his hands. Not much of a running threat but shows quick feet to sidestep/climb inside pocket. Almost always looking to reset feet and get ball out of his hands. Goes down too easily. Not sold on toughness inside the pocket.
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Re: 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards

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Individual category break down grading scale is as follows:

1 = EXCEPTIONAL
2 = ABOVE AVERAGE
3 = AVERAGE
4 = BELOW AVERAGE
5 = MARGINAL


AJ McCarron (Scouts Grade: 85)
6-3⅜, 204 lbs

Overall Football Traits

Production: 1 2009: Redshirted. 2010: (13/0) -30-48-62.5-389-3-02011: (13/13) -219-328-66.8-2,634-16-5. 2012: (14/14) - 211-314-67.2-2,933-30-3

Height-Weight-Speed: 2 Good frame but lacks bulk and needs to improve his muscle mass. Needs to add lower body mass and upper body strength. Shorter than average arms but bigger than average hand span. Very good speed for position.

Durability: 2 Lean frame is mildly concerning at this point. Is tough and will play through pain. Played final six games of 2012 season with injured ribs. Started all 27 games the past two seasons (2011-12) and played in all 13 games as a redshirt freshman in 2010 (all 13 as holder and eight as backup QB).

Intangibles: 3 Very confident player. Is maturing and is growing into leadership role. Will put in extra work in film room. Average student. Graduated in December, 2012 (Human Environmental Science major). No off-the-field incidents of significance. 25-2 as a starter with back-to-back national titles. From Mobile, AL.

Quarterback Specific Traits

Mental Makeup : 1 Outstanding competitor. Despises losing. Not afraid to get into player's faces and demands excellence. Can be a bit emotional but love his confident, take-charge approach. Hard work in tape room transfers to field. Has developed into a good decision maker. Very decisive and doesn't hold onto ball. Excellent ball security; enters 2013 season with 49 TDs compared to just 8 INTs.

Accuracy: 3 Very good accuracy short-to-intermediate. Throws to spots accurately before WR breaks. Can lead receivers to yards after catch. Has touch and timing. However, deep ball accuracy is poor and must improve. Too many balls thrown up for grabs. Gets away with it too often because his WRs go make plays on the ball, but won't suffice in NFL.

Release/Arm Strength: 4 Gets adequate zip on intermediate throws. Bit of an elongated delivery. Displays below-average arm strength on deep ball. Really has to wind up when attempting to drive the ball vertically.

Pocket Mobility: 2 Deceptively athletic. Shows above average pocket presence. Consistently slides/steps up away from pass rushers. Can quickly reset feet and throw. Has very good speed for position. Frequently able to break contain (if initial play fails) and buy extra time for WRs. Also a mild running threat when he tucks the ball and goes.
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Re: 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards

Post by frosted »

FWIW, it does seem these were done during or prior to last season.
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Re: 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards

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frosted21 wrote:FWIW, it does seem these were done during or prior to last season.
Yeah, you can tell when reading them closely.

Thank you very much for posting that information. I'm very intrigued by both of those QBs. they both seem to have strong leadership, intangible, and decision-making qualities.

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Re: 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards

Post by dead_poet »

One of the most...unique mocks I've seen so far (with trades): http://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-draft/ ... ke-bortles
*Jets trade picks 18 and 49 to the Minnesota Vikings for pick No. 8 (Jets take WR Mike Evans)
18. TRADE Minnesota Vikings (via New York Jets) - Derek Carr, Quarterback, Fresno State

With the top three quarterbacks off the board at pick No. 8, the Vikings could go a few different directions. They could reach for a quarterback at No. 8 or they could trade down and collect more picks. Obviously trading down is easier said than done. In this version of the NFL Draft, the Vikings find a trade partner and still get their quarterback. Derek Carr grades out as a second-round pick, but quarterbacks tend to get a bump in value as the draft approaches.
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Re: 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards

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Bucky Brooks' Top 25: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap200000 ... ter_nfl_cb

A few surprises, notably: Barr above Watkins, Robinson at #2 overall, Mack "way down" at #15 and Ryan Shazier at #14.
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Re: 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards

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Josh Norris/ latest: http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/4 ... aft-feb-17

With trades. Blake Bortles at #1 overall. Three QBs selected with the first three picks. MIN trades down (with St. Louis).
13. Minnesota Vikings (Trade via STL) - QB Derek Carr, Fresno State

We saw a similar move last year with the Bills, trading back with a quarterback in mind. Carr and Norv Turner would be fun to watch. The Fresno State product will frustrate and wow his fan base all in the same game. Carr does not throw from a balanced base on a consistent basis, but his arm hits throws at every level of the field with touch and velocity.
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Re: 2014 Mock drafts

Post by Mercy Percy »

radar55 wrote:D. Carr at # 8 is C. Ponder #2

What makes you warrant that Opinion? Many scouts say Carr has the strongest arm in this draft and a high upside, Ponder was the most 'NFL ready QB' he wasnt seen as a gun slinger like Carr could be.
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Re: 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards

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dead_poet wrote:Josh Norris/ latest: http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/4 ... aft-feb-17

With trades. Blake Bortles at #1 overall. Three QBs selected with the first three picks. MIN trades down (with St. Louis).
Eh, I would prefer they stick and take Barr or in that trade down scenario grabbing Mosley.
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Re: 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards

Post by saint33 »

S197 wrote: Eh, I would prefer they stick and take Barr or in that trade down scenario grabbing Mosley.
I would rather stay where they're at and draft Mosley than Barr tbh.
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Re: 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards

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saint33 wrote:
I would rather stay where they're at and draft Mosley than Barr tbh.
In the linked scenario they could trade down and take Mosley. I'd be okay with them taking Mosley at #8 (depending on how the board shakes out), I'm just very wary of Carr. Even at #13.
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Re: 2014 Mock drafts

Post by VikingLord »

Mercy Percy wrote:
What makes you warrant that Opinion? Many scouts say Carr has the strongest arm in this draft and a high upside, Ponder was the most 'NFL ready QB' he wasnt seen as a gun slinger like Carr could be.
I love how there is this impression that Carr has a big arm, or a lot of "arm talent", whatever that is. One look at the content of this article:

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/4 ... -conundrum

completely dispels the idea that Carr is good at hitting deeper targets OR handling pressure. This is from the section that analyzes where the "Top 4" QB's threw the ball:
- Derek Carr is the complete opposite, throwing 33% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage, but few in the 1-10 yard range. The high number of short attempts means that he throws the deep ball less than average 11.35% of the time. In addition he throws to the important intermediate zone (11-20 yards) 18.3% of the time which means overall he pushes the ball down the field less than normal.
How about accuracy down the field?
- Having a big arm is a trait that every scout desires, but that doesn’t matter if it’s not particularly effective. Derek Carr’s accuracy on 20+ yard throws is poor, coming in nearly 7% below-average. In addition, his accuracy on NFL type throws (11-20 yards) is just about as expected at 64%. His only redeeming category is in the 6-10 yard range where he is slightly above average.
How about under pressure?
- Upon first glance it’s pretty clear that Carr is lacking in both categories. His 50% completion percentage when under pressure is the worst among the top 8 QBs in this class and he’s not setting the world ablaze against the blitz either.
Well, maybe it was the system. Maybe in a normal pro-style system, Carr would improve?
- Derek Carr on the other hand would lose 3.5% off his completion percentage for the season. When you decrease his number of screens which are a high percentage pass and increase the number of below-average deep passes – it shows how much effect the system had on his production.
These are the hard numbers compared to his peers his this year's draft class. Carr may throw well when he has the red jersey on, and he may be very intelligent and possess spectacular arm talent, but the facts remain. The guy is a senior who still has significant questions surrounding his mechanics, ability to handle the blitz, accuracy when throwing past 5 yards, and completes a horrendously low percentage of passes longer than 10 yards. Think about what we've gone through watching Ponder for the last 3 years, look at the data that supports the quoted article, and then tell me you still want Carr *anywhere* in this year's draft. I'm not talking at #8. I'm not talking about the 2nd round. I'm talking as an undrafted free agent.

I know there are some who will think that is harsh, and maybe so, but I'm just not sure why any Viking fan would want someone who posted numbers like those after what we've gone through watching Ponder.
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Re: 2014 Mock drafts

Post by Purple bruise »

VikingLord wrote: I love how there is this impression that Carr has a big arm, or a lot of "arm talent", whatever that is. One look at the content of this article:

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/4 ... -conundrum

completely dispels the idea that Carr is good at hitting deeper targets OR handling pressure. This is from the section that analyzes where the "Top 4" QB's threw the ball:
How about accuracy down the field?
How about under pressure?
Well, maybe it was the system. Maybe in a normal pro-style system, Carr would improve?
These are the hard numbers compared to his peers his this year's draft class. Carr may throw well when he has the red jersey on, and he may be very intelligent and possess spectacular arm talent, but the facts remain. The guy is a senior who still has significant questions surrounding his mechanics, ability to handle the blitz, accuracy when throwing past 5 yards, and completes a horrendously low percentage of passes longer than 10 yards. Think about what we've gone through watching Ponder for the last 3 years, look at the data that supports the quoted article, and then tell me you still want Carr *anywhere* in this year's draft. I'm not talking at #8. I'm not talking about the 2nd round. I'm talking as an undrafted free agent.

I know there are some who will think that is harsh, and maybe so, but I'm just not sure why any Viking fan would want someone who posted numbers like those after what we've gone through watching Ponder.
I have posted it before and I will again. I hope that the Vikings stay far away from Carr he has bust written all over him.
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Re: 2014 Mock drafts

Post by saint33 »

VikingLord wrote: I love how there is this impression that Carr has a big arm, or a lot of "arm talent", whatever that is. One look at the content of this article:

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/4 ... -conundrum

completely dispels the idea that Carr is good at hitting deeper targets OR handling pressure. This is from the section that analyzes where the "Top 4" QB's threw the ball:
How about accuracy down the field?
How about under pressure?
Well, maybe it was the system. Maybe in a normal pro-style system, Carr would improve?
These are the hard numbers compared to his peers his this year's draft class. Carr may throw well when he has the red jersey on, and he may be very intelligent and possess spectacular arm talent, but the facts remain. The guy is a senior who still has significant questions surrounding his mechanics, ability to handle the blitz, accuracy when throwing past 5 yards, and completes a horrendously low percentage of passes longer than 10 yards. Think about what we've gone through watching Ponder for the last 3 years, look at the data that supports the quoted article, and then tell me you still want Carr *anywhere* in this year's draft. I'm not talking at #8. I'm not talking about the 2nd round. I'm talking as an undrafted free agent.

I know there are some who will think that is harsh, and maybe so, but I'm just not sure why any Viking fan would want someone who posted numbers like those after what we've gone through watching Ponder.
that's an awesome article, thank you for posting it.
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Re: 2014 Mock drafts

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VikingLord wrote:These are the hard numbers compared to his peers his this year's draft class. Carr may throw well when he has the red jersey on, and he may be very intelligent and possess spectacular arm talent, but the facts remain. The guy is a senior who still has significant questions surrounding his mechanics, ability to handle the blitz, accuracy when throwing past 5 yards, and completes a horrendously low percentage of passes longer than 10 yards. Think about what we've gone through watching Ponder for the last 3 years, look at the data that supports the quoted article, and then tell me you still want Carr *anywhere* in this year's draft. I'm not talking at #8. I'm not talking about the 2nd round. I'm talking as an undrafted free agent.

I know there are some who will think that is harsh, and maybe so, but I'm just not sure why any Viking fan would want someone who posted numbers like those after what we've gone through watching Ponder.
Because there's more to his game than what those stats reveal (like his off-the-charts TD-to-INT ratio over the last 2 years and his leadership qualities)? Sheesh, I can understand why you wouldn't want Carr in the first or even the second round but to suggest he wouldn't even be worth signing as an undrafted free agent is pretty extreme.

I think people are way too down on the guy. I'd be happy to see him in a Vikings uniform next season.

Regarding the article: it's been posted on the board before and it's an interesting read but considering the take you posted above ("I love how there is this impression that Carr has a big arm, or a lot of "arm talent", whatever that is. One look at the content of this article... completely dispels the idea that Carr is good at hitting deeper targets OR handling pressure"), I'd say it's worth quoting the introduction to the article as well:
With respect to quarterbacks in the draft, you’ll always hear pundits make observations such as, “this QB has a great deep ball” or “he always folds when he’s under pressure in the pocket.” But how do you know those are true and not bias from a small sample of observed snaps? The simple answer is that you don’t. What I’ve aimed to do this year (and in years past) is to quantify those observations in an effort complement film study and analysis of draft prospects. Instead of guessing about the potency of Manziel’s deep ball, you can pull up the legitimate statistic.

To do that, I’ve hand charted every one of Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, Johnny Manziel, and Blake Bortles’ attempts this year on everything from pass distance to throws against the blitz. The data here can’t render an opinion for you, but it can provide an effective complement to your knowledge on a prospect.
In other words, even the author of the article isn't suggesting that the information he posted is definitive on it's own and how could it be? There are too many other variables to account for, which is why scouting and film study are so important.
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