2014 Mock drafts/Big boards

[S197]

I think people are way too down on the guy. I'd be happy to see him in a Vikings uniform next season.

I think the big question is if he's worth the 8th pick. If he falls like a Mallet (no pun intended!) I would be happy to see him in a Vikings uniform too. I was one of the first to voice my opinions on Carr, mainly because when I saw him in person I wasn't wowed but he certainly has a lot of tangibles going for him. I'm just wary when scouts get caught up too much in a guy with an elite arm but lacks or at least hasn't showcased a lot of the other talents needed. His mechanics and arm are very reminiscent of Tarvaris Jackson to me.

[Mothman]

I think the big question is if he's worth the 8th pick. If he falls like a Mallet (no pun intended!) I would be happy to see him in a Vikings uniform too. I was one of the first to voice my opinions on Carr, mainly because when I saw him in person I wasn't wowed but he certainly has a lot of tangibles going for him. I'm just wary when scouts get caught up too much in a guy with an elite arm but lacks or at least hasn't showcased a lot of the other talents needed. His mechanics and arm are very reminiscent of Tarvaris Jackson to me.

He'll definitely have some work to do on his mechanics at the next level and I don't want the Vikes to select him with the 8th pick but I do think he's worth drafting. I think there's a lot of talent and upside with Carr.

[S197]

He'll definitely have some work to do on his mechanics at the next level and I don't want the Vikes to select him with the 8th pick but I do think he's worth drafting. I think there's a lot of talent and upside with Carr.

Agreed. Initially I was going to say 3rd round. However, it will be real interesting if he's there when the Vikings pick early in the 2nd. I say 3rd because a guy like him, who clearly needs some polish, starts to fall into that secondary or even tertiary tiers. When I look at Carr vs guys who could possibly be there in the 3rd (Garoppollo, Mettenberger, Murray, etc.) I don't know if I would pull the trigger even in the 2nd. I certainly wouldn't hate it as much as if the Vikings take him in round 1 but this QB class gets pretty muddled after the first couple of guys.

[VikingLord]

I'm just wary when scouts get caught up too much in a guy with an elite arm but lacks or at least hasn't showcased a lot of the other talents needed. His mechanics and arm are very reminiscent of Tarvaris Jackson to me.

I don't see the evidence to support the statement that Carr has an elite arm at all. If anything, there is evidence to the contrary. He throws a lot of screens and completes a relatively low percentage of his passes past 10 yards. If that doesn't remind Vikings fans of Ponder I don't know what would.

And all these other "intangibles" are just red herrings. The guy can either drop, make his progressions, anticipate, and make accurate throws all over the field or he can't. So far, what I've seen of Carr is that he can't, at least not consistently.

[dead_poet]

I don't see the evidence to support the statement that Carr has an elite arm at all. If anything, there is evidence to the contrary. He throws a lot of screens and completes a relatively low percentage of his passes past 10 yards. If that doesn't remind Vikings fans of Ponder I don't know what would.

Completing a lot of screens doesn't necessarily mean he can't complete deeper passes. Did you watch many (any?) of his games to be able to accurately say anything about his arm strength?

Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5wr82ZRUjc

A lot of these throws are flat-footed. At :39 he seemingly wrist-flicks a 35-yarder. At :59 he flat-foots a 53-yard perfect strike. He throws a rocket at 1:31. At 2:26 he throws a 30-yard laser. At 2:43 he finally steps into one and only tosses it from his own 33 to the 8 yard line. What's that? A 59-yarder? Or at 2:49 he only tosses it flat-footed from the 7 to the opposing 45. 48 yards? There are a few more examples after that, but I think you get my gist. I have no idea if he'll be a decent NFL QB, but arm strength is not a liability. It's an asset. But I'm more concerned with all the other factors.

Almost every single scouting report (if not ALL of them) single out his arm strength as a positive.

Bucky Brooks:

Arm Talent
Carr is a gunslinger with exceptional arm talent. He has one of the quickest deliveries in the game; he capably makes every throw in the book with zip and velocity. In addition, Carr can change the pace and trajectory of his balls to execute difficult throws down the field. He shows good touch on fade routes and post-corners near the goal line but is a bit inconsistent on his ball placement. Although those errant tosses rarely lead to interceptions, Carr occasionally misfires on throws that should result in easy touchdowns.

Part of Carr's inconsistency on these throws can be attributed to his inconsistent footwork in the pocket. He has such a strong arm that he fails to fully incorporate his lower body into his throws, leading his passes to sail high and wide on occasion. Of course, this is a correctable skill, but Carr must continue to refine his footwork and fundamentals to allow his superior arm talent to shine at the next level.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap200000 ... rending-up

CBS.com:

STRENGTHS: NFL-caliber arm strength to sling the ball all over the field, with the ability to throw the deep fade and fire passes into tight windows. Shows the ability to square his shoulders and fire passes with velocity and accuracy. Demonstrates a combination of arm strength, accuracy and underrated athleticism. Astute ability to read coverages and recognize pressure at the line of scrimmage with several pre-snap adjustments based on obvious film study.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/play ... derek-carr

Not a glowing review, but it discusses some film (arm strength not a problem): http://www.footballoutsiders.com/future ... derek-carr

Here's an interesting quote from Mike Mayock:

Mayock said on @nflnetwork that Derek Carr is easily the highest rated QB when he talked to NFL coaches/execs.

Anyway, point being, arm strength is not a problem with Derek Carr.

[Mothman]

Anyway, point being, arm strength is not a problem with Derek Carr.

It's not an issue at all and he shows very nice touch on a lot of his passes so he's not one of those strong-armed QBs who rifles every throw.

Good post. I appreciate the quotes and the call-outs to specific throws on the highlight video. I also agree that completing a lot of screens doesn't necessarily mean he can't complete deeper passes. In fact, it obviously doesn't mean that. Those short, quick throws are a significant part of the offense Fresno State runs but they aren't there to compensate for a lack of skill at QB. Carr looks to me like he can throw every route: slants, curls, deep throws down the sidelines or the seams, the back shoulder passes that are so popular in the NFL now...

I also think it's a mistake to conflate completion percentage with accuracy and to conclude, as the Rotoworld article linked to above did, that Carr's accuracy on throws beyond 20 yards is poor based on his completion percentage. Accuracy and completion percentage are not one and the same. The latter is self-explanatory and the former is about placement of the football, not about completions. Obviously, well-placed passes are often completed but I've always felt that assuming completion percentage is a reliable measure of accuracy assumes too much. It doesn't take the receiver or the defending player(s) into account at all. Carr's accuracy on throws over 20 yards looks pretty good to me, although there's certainly some room for improvement.

To me, Carr's biggest question marks are his footwork (which should be correctable), and his level of competition. He seems to see the field well, throw the ball well and make good decisions. His fantastic TD/INT ratio reinforces that and as we all know, it's an important trait in a sport where turnovers often play a big role in which teams wins a game.

I understand the hesitation about Carr but there's a lot to recommend him and I don't think he should be written off lightly.

[Crax]

Posted it another thread that mentioned Carr, but fits here too

Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheet 7m

#Fresno St. QB Derek Carr will not throw at @NFL Scouting Combine, per source. He will do other drills. Carr will throw at Fresno’s Pro Day

Unless you're legitimately injured, it always bothers me when guys do stuff like that. It feels like they're trying to hide something. He'll do drills, but won't throw at combine, but will throw pre-practiced stuff at his schools pro day where he knows everything he'll have to do and won't be asked to do stuff they know he's bad at.

[Mothman]

Posted it another thread that mentioned Carr, but fits here too
Unless you're legitimately injured, it always bothers me when guys do stuff like that. It feels like they're trying to hide something. He'll do drills, but won't throw at combine, but will throw pre-practiced stuff at his schools pro day where he knows everything he'll have to do and won't be asked to do stuff they know he's bad at.

From what I've read, one of the reasons some QBs don't want to throw at the combine is that they prefer not to do the drills while throwing to unfamiliar receivers. In Carr's case, if he was trying to hide something, I don't think he would have agreed to be a part of the Senior Bowl.

I think most of the time, players who choose not to throw at the combine are probably just following the advice of their agents. If the agent feels they have nothing to gain by participating, they probably advise the player to skip it and wait for his pro day.

Personally, I don't think it matters much either way. I'm always a little disappointed when a player chooses not to participate but I don't think they're hiding anything.

[Crax]

Personally, I don't think it matters much either way. I'm always a little disappointed when a player chooses not to participate but I don't think they're hiding anything.

I guess not, but I'd think you would want to show all the teams that are there what you can do. "Unfamiliar receivers" is a cop out as everyone on your new team is going to be unfamiliar initially and if your team ever has to bring someone in mid-season, they'll also be unfamiliar. It's the same across the board for all the QB's there.

I don't recall hearing about it, but how many receivers go to the combine and do the measurables, but then refuse to catch? Is it just a qb thing?

I know some big time guys have skipped the combine, but Carr isn't one of those guys.

[Mothman]

I guess not, but I'd think you would want to show all the teams that are there what you can do.

Most of them already know from scouting the players and watching them on film. The NFL teams were all well-represented at the Senior Bowl so players like Carr, who participated in that game and the week of practice leading up to it, have already shown the teams, in person, what they can do.

"Unfamiliar receivers" is a cop out as everyone on your new team is going to be unfamiliar initially and if your team ever has to bring someone in mid-season, they'll also be unfamiliar. It's the same across the board for all the QB's there.

I think it's probably a question of where a player is ranked and what the agent perceives is best for him. If they don't believe a good combine is going to help the player move up in the draft, why risk injury or a bad workout that could damage draft position? Sure, any QB drafted will be dealing with unfamiliar receivers at the next level but at that point, he'll already be drafted, signed and paid a bonus. Even with a rookie salary cap, there's a still a lot of money at stake for these kids.

I don't recall hearing about it, but how many receivers go to the combine and do the measurables, but then refuse to catch? Is it just a qb thing?

No, there are players at other positions who choose not to work out.

[VikingLord]

Anyway, point being, arm strength is not a problem with Derek Carr.

OK, fine, then why did Fresno State run a Ponder-esque offense? If Carr is so good at throwing deeper, why not do it more often? With Ponder, it's obvious why not. Not only does he not have a very strong arm, but he's skittish behind the line and shows poor recognition and anticipation, so those routes rarely develop successfully. The Rotoworld article numbers aren't pulled out of thin air, and they're comparative to other "top QB's" in this class. Could it be that Carr didn't throw deep for some of the same reasons that plague Ponder and not just because of Fresno's system?

Nothing you've posted here changes my opinion of Carr. I think the guy is going to be a colossal bust as a pro if he's taken in the early 1st or even early 2nd rounds. If he's taken later and with less pressure on him to start, and he has plenty of time to sit and learn behind an established starter, then I think he'll have a chance. Unfortunately, the Vikings aren't going to be able to provide him with that luxury. If Spielman takes the poor guy I feel sorry for both of them.

[dead_poet]

OK, fine, then why did Fresno State run a Ponder-esque offense? If Carr is so good at throwing deeper, why not do it more often?

I didn't watch enough games to figure out why they went with that particular scheme. It could be a lot of things: poor receivers, inadequate pass-blocking to allow for deep drops (we saw what happened to strong-armed Jay Cutler with Mike Martz running the show). It'd be interesting to check Fresno State's scheme prior to Carr. Some coaches just have a scheme they want their guys to play to.

With Ponder, it's obvious why not. Not only does he not have a very strong arm, but he's skittish behind the line and shows poor recognition and anticipation, so those routes rarely develop successfully. The Rotoworld article numbers aren't pulled out of thin air, and they're comparative to other "top QB's" in this class. Could it be that Carr didn't throw deep for some of the same reasons that plague Ponder and not just because of Fresno's system?

It's possible, but it's equally as possible that's just the scheme the team ran. He was asked to execute it because it was effective and he was effective in executing it. How can you fault the guy for performing well under the system he was asked to run?

Nothing you've posted here changes my opinion of Carr.

OK. If you truly think that nothing I posted changes your opinion of Derek Carr's arm strength (which was a/the central point), then you're being purposefully obtuse. Watch him. Read the evals. Arm strength is a + for Derek Carr.

If we're talking about him as a PRO...I can agree there are question marks. Arm strength just is not one of them.

I think the guy is going to be a colossal bust as a pro if he's taken in the early 1st or even early 2nd rounds. If he's taken later and with less pressure on him to start, and he has plenty of time to sit and learn behind an established starter, then I think he'll have a chance. Unfortunately, the Vikings aren't going to be able to provide him with that luxury. If Spielman takes the poor guy I feel sorry for both of them.

That's fine. You very well could be right. If the Vikings take him, let's hope you're wrong.

[Mothman]

OK, fine, then why did Fresno State run a Ponder-esque offense?

Maybe because it was extremely effective? Perhaps because they wanted to get the ball into the hands of their playmakers quickly and use the now time-tested approach of utilizing a short passing game like a running game? The Vikings and 49ers were doing that as far back as the '70s. Why assume that sort of strategy is adopted as a necessity due to the limitations of a QB when it can clearly be so effective?

If Carr is so good at throwing deeper, why not do it more often?

Why do it more often? Deep throws are low percentage plays and shorter throws are high percentage plays. Why increase emphasis on low percentage plays when the offense is working well and extremely productive? Fresno State was ranked #1 in passing among all FBS teams last year. They were #16 in the country in total offense. They scored 66 TDs and averaged 477.5 yards per game. Carr threw 87 TDs over the last two seasons! I don't see a lot of incentive for a change in strategy there, especially because while throwing for all those TDs, he kept INTs to a minimum (15) and the team won.

Could it be that Carr didn't throw deep for some of the same reasons that plague Ponder and not just because of Fresno's system?

It could be for any number of reasons but if you know enough about Carr to strongly imply that he's not worth drafting or signing at all, and to declare that you think he is going to be a colossal bust as a pro if he's taken in the early 1st or even early 2nd round, I have to wonder why you need to ask that question at all.

Carr's arm strength is readily apparent if you watch even a highlight reel or two and even more apparent if you watch him in games and yet, despite dead_poet providing a link to clear evidence of it above, you don't seem willing to acknowledge even that obvious point.

[Mothman]

I didn't watch enough games to figure out why they went with that particular scheme. It could be a lot of things: poor receivers, inadequate pass-blocking to allow for deep drops (we saw what happened to strong-armed Jay Cutler with Mike Martz running the show). It'd be interesting to check Fresno State's scheme prior to Carr. Some coaches just have a scheme they want their guys to play to.

That would be interesting. Unfortunately, Fresno State's current head coach and offensive coordinator have both only been with the team the past two years so I don't think it's possible. I'm not sure either has held their current position before. The HC is a former defensive coordinator and the OC is a former position coach (with a lot of experience).

[S197]

I think Carr electing to not throw at the combine will have little impact. His arm strength is elite and he can make all the throws, that's just about a given. How he takes a snap from under center, pre-snap recognition, poise under pressure, pocket presence, etc., these are the things that are the big question marks for Carr and there really isn't a drill at the combine or the pro day that will help answer it.

As for Fresno St., the reason they throw all of the short bubble screens and such is it's essentially like their running play. They utilize 4 and 5 receiver sets a lot, almost always out of the gun. It's similar to what Hawaii ran under June Jones when Colt Brennan put up his crazy numbers. Fresno had to play against that offense every single year and they probably saw something they liked and adopted part of it.