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 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards 
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Post 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards
Josh Norris' latest: http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/4 ... aft-jan-27

Quote:
8. Minnesota Vikings - QB Derek Carr, Fresno State

Carr and Norv Turner would be fun to watch. The Fresno State product will frustrate and wow his fan base all in the same game. Carr does not throw from a balanced base on a consistent basis, but his arm hits throws at every level of the field with touch and velocity.

I also think it is lazy to not draft Carr because of his older brother, David. They are different prospects

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Last edited by dead_poet on Wed Jan 29, 2014 3:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Tue Jan 28, 2014 2:05 pm
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Post Re: 2014 Mock drafts
dead_poet wrote:
Josh Norris' latest: http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/4 ... aft-jan-27

Quote:
8. Minnesota Vikings - QB Derek Carr, Fresno State

Carr and Norv Turner would be fun to watch. The Fresno State product will frustrate and wow his fan base all in the same game. Carr does not throw from a balanced base on a consistent basis, but his arm hits throws at every level of the field with touch and velocity.

I also think it is lazy to not draft Carr because of his older brother, David. They are different prospects



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Tue Jan 28, 2014 8:26 pm
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Post Re: 2014 Mock drafts
D. Carr at # 8 is C. Ponder #2


Wed Jan 29, 2014 11:01 am
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Post Re: 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards
2014 NFL Draft prospects: Top 50 Draft Board 1.0

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/nfl- ... t-board-10

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Wed Jan 29, 2014 3:53 pm
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Post Re: 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards
Thanks for the links.

#8 seems high for Carr based on the various evaluations that are out there now so taking all of that stuff into consideration, if he does become a Viking, it might be better if it involved a trade down in the first or a trade up from the second. That said, I think he's a very talented player who, with the proper guidance and enough talent on the outside to throw to, has the potential to become a very productive NFL QB. He reportedly has strong character and is a leader. His arm strength strikes me as unquestionable and he could excel in a downfield passing game. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Vikes were very interested in him and if he did become a Viking, I'd be excited about the possibilities. His game needs work but that appears to be the case for every QB in this draft. It's his upside that's intriguing.

For what it's worth, in their latest mocks, Rob Rang and Dane Brugler both have Carr going to the Vikes at #8: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/mock-draft

Rang's take:
Quote:
Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State: Mike Zimmer's choice of Norv Turner as his offensive coordinator may signal the end of Christian Ponder's run as the Vikings' quarterback. While Ponder does not possess the strong arm Turner has preferred in his vertical passing attack, Carr certainly does. The Fresno State star distanced himself from the other senior quarterbacks in this draft class with a strong performance in Mobile.


Brugler's take:
Quote:
Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State: Minnesota is stuck in quarterback mediocrity with Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel and newly acquired Josh Freeman. Even with a coaching search underway, quarterback has to be No. 1 on the off-season priority list and Carr has the arm talent that Christian Ponder never showed.


Brugler has Bortles going #1 to Houston, Bridgewater at #3 to Jacksonville and Manziel at #4 to Cleveland.

Rang has Bortles going to Jacksonville, Manziel to Cleveland and Bridgewater to Oakland.

There's a LOT of buzz out there about the Browns interest in Manziel.


Wed Jan 29, 2014 4:56 pm
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Post Re: 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards
Mothman wrote:
Thanks for the links.

#8 seems high for Carr based on the various evaluations that are out there now so taking all of that stuff into consideration, if he does become a Viking, it might be better if it involved a trade down in the first or a trade up from the second. That said, I think he's a very talented player who, with the proper guidance and enough talent on the outside to throw to, has the potential to become a very productive NFL QB. He reportedly has strong character and is a leader. His arm strength strikes me as unquestionable and he could excel in a downfield passing game. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Vikes were very interested in him and if he did become a Viking, I'd be excited about the possibilities. His game needs work but that appears to be the case for every QB in this draft. It's his upside that's intriguing.

For what it's worth, in their latest mocks, Rob Rang and Dane Brugler both have Carr going to the Vikes at #8: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/mock-draft

Rang's take:
Quote:
Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State: Mike Zimmer's choice of Norv Turner as his offensive coordinator may signal the end of Christian Ponder's run as the Vikings' quarterback. While Ponder does not possess the strong arm Turner has preferred in his vertical passing attack, Carr certainly does. The Fresno State star distanced himself from the other senior quarterbacks in this draft class with a strong performance in Mobile.


Brugler's take:
Quote:
Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State: Minnesota is stuck in quarterback mediocrity with Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel and newly acquired Josh Freeman. Even with a coaching search underway, quarterback has to be No. 1 on the off-season priority list and Carr has the arm talent that Christian Ponder never showed.


Brugler has Bortles going #1 to Houston, Bridgewater at #3 to Jacksonville and Manziel at #4 to Cleveland.

Rang has Bortles going to Jacksonville, Manziel to Cleveland and Bridgewater to Oakland.

There's a LOT of buzz out there about the Browns interest in Manziel.


If there's an early run on QBs like these professional prognosticators are predicting, that's all the more reason to go D w/ #8. Mack might slip to us.

In that CBS Mock that DP posted Manziel would go 38 over all! That'd be an easy trade up from 40!


Wed Jan 29, 2014 7:23 pm
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Post Re: 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards
.NFL Mock Draft 2014: Breaking Down the Entire 1st Round
By Jesse Reed , Featured Columnist Feb 5, 2014
Bortles #1 Pick....http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1948 ... -1st-round

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Wed Feb 05, 2014 6:40 pm
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Post Re: 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards
Purple bruise wrote:
.NFL Mock Draft 2014: Breaking Down the Entire 1st Round
By Jesse Reed , Featured Columnist Feb 5, 2014
Bortles #1 Pick....http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1948 ... -1st-round


FOUR quarterbacks in the first five picks? I consider this a highly unlikely scenario.

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Wed Feb 05, 2014 10:12 pm
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Post Re: 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards
dead_poet wrote:
Purple bruise wrote:
.NFL Mock Draft 2014: Breaking Down the Entire 1st Round
By Jesse Reed , Featured Columnist Feb 5, 2014
Bortles #1 Pick....http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1948 ... -1st-round


FOUR quarterbacks in the first five picks? I consider this a highly unlikely scenario.


I agree. It would be absolutely stunning if that happened.


Thu Feb 06, 2014 1:56 pm
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Post Re: 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards
Mothman wrote:
dead_poet wrote:
Purple bruise wrote:
.NFL Mock Draft 2014: Breaking Down the Entire 1st Round
By Jesse Reed , Featured Columnist Feb 5, 2014
Bortles #1 Pick....http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1948 ... -1st-round


FOUR quarterbacks in the first five picks? I consider this a highly unlikely scenario.


I agree. It would be absolutely stunning if that happened.


I agree but there are many teams, with high draft picks, that are experiencing the same QB problems that the Vikings face and so it is not impossible to imagine.

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Fri Feb 07, 2014 9:21 am
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Post Re: 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards
Purple bruise wrote:
I agree but there are many teams, with high draft picks, that are experiencing the same QB problems that the Vikings face and so it is not impossible to imagine.


No, it's not... it's just hard to believe they would all pass up so much talent at other positions, especially when most of these QBs don't look like top 5 quality picks (I realize that's debatable, of course). At the very least, it seems likely one of them might trade down and wait a bit to select a QB. 4 QBs going in the top 5 would be unprecedented.

Speaking of mocks and big boards... apparently Kiper and McShay have released their latest. I'm not an ESPN Insider so I don't know the details but ESPN Vikings blogger Ben Goessling provided some info on it:

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_ ... ax-vikings

Quote:
Kiper has the Vikings taking Bortles after two teams that need quarterbacks (the Jaguars and Raiders) draft South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney and Clemson wide receiver Sammy Watkins third and fifth overall, respectively. In McShay's version, Bridgewater, Bortles and Manziel go with the third, fourth and fifth picks, leaving the Vikings with Alabama linebacker C.J. Mosley after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers grab Buffalo linebacker Khalil Mack with the No. 7 pick.


Fri Feb 07, 2014 9:46 am
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Post Re: 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards
I have ESPN Insider if anyone is wanting me to post some specific content, FWIW.

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Fri Feb 07, 2014 10:15 am
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Post Re: 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards
frosted21 wrote:
I have ESPN Insider if anyone is wanting me to post some specific content, FWIW.


Thanks. It's nice of you to offer...

If you have time to share it, I'd love to read Mel Kiper's take on some of the top QBs in this draft.


Fri Feb 07, 2014 11:31 am
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Post Re: 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards
Mothman wrote:

Thanks. It's nice of you to offer...

If you have time to share it, I'd love to read Mel Kiper's take on some of the top QBs in this draft.


You got it! These are from his "big board". He last updated it on January 16th, obviously before his most recent mock, so it may have changed between then and now but:

#9 - Teddy Bridgewater
Bridgewater is poised and smart and is the QB in this draft class who most regularly made NFL-like throws with good timing and anticipation; he throws to spots and openings, not just to open targets. Bridgewater also has a good blend of arm strength to drive the ball into tight windows and the sense of when to take some heat off and make a throw that will result in an easy catch. He adjusts his velocity really well, depending on the depth and location of the pass. He does a good job pre-snap, gets through his progressions and often scans the whole field. His ball placement is consistently good.

#10- Blake Bortles
Bortles offers an enticing blend of the size you traditionally look for at QB with the athleticism that is now coveted across the NFL as more offenses put mobility to good use. He has sound mechanics, though almost rigidly so, and shows poise and good footwork in the pocket. He has above-average arm strength, based on my reviews, and can drive the ball pretty well on deep and intermediate throws. While he's generally accurate, he can be inconsistent with his ball placement and ask a lot of his wide receivers. UCF's pass-catchers turned a lot of short throws into huge plays, which inflated Bortles' passing totals a bit.

#11 - Johnny Manziel
While some see Manziel as a wild card, many I talk to across the NFL see him as a player with the highest ceiling among those at quarterback. It's not hard to agree, because Manziel is highly competitive, a gifted improviser heading to a league that demands it, and is an effective pocket passer. He anticipates well and sees the whole field, and though he doesn't have great arm strength, he can make special throws with touch and precision both from the pocket and on the move. (He would deliver strikes with more velocity if he kept his feet underneath him consistently.) I'm concerned with how well Manziel can balance his ability to improvise with the ability to get out of bounds or slide and limit hits, but that certainly can be learned. I also think he can prepare at an elite level.

Here is his analysis of the Vikings projected pick (Bortles), in his most recent mock:

Analysis: The Vikings lack any sense of certainty at the QB position. While I think Bortles will have a bit of a learning curve because he needs to gain much greater consistency with his ball placement, he has tremendous physical upside, with a big frame that can really move, which will provide an added dimension to help the offense move the ball as the passing aspect steadily improves. Can Bortles start right away for a team that wants to take a step forward? I think that's a question for the process.

Those are the only three that made his top 25 prospects. The rest of his rankings for QB are as follows:

4. Derek Carr, Fresno St.
5. AJ McCarron, Alabama
6. Zach Mettenberger, LSU
7. *Brett Smith, Wyoming
8. Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech
9. Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois
10. David Fales, San Jose St.

Kiper himself doesn't give detailed analysis on the rest (not that I could find laid out like this, at least), but if you are curious about a specific player, I have access to the Scouts, Inc. scouting reports through Insider (which are very detailed) on most (not all, unfortunately, I think there will be more as we approach the draft) of the prospects in the draft. Let me know if your curious about anyone in particular and I would be glad to post. Also, I would be willing to post McShay and Kiper's full mocks later if anyone is interested.

-------

Here is McShay's analysis of the Vikings projected pick (Mosely), in his most recent mock:

Analysis: If there's anything that keeps Mosley out of the first half of the first round, my guess is it would be concerns about his durability (he's had significant shoulder, hip and elbow injuries in the past), but it's hard not to fall in love with his performance on tape. He was highly productive at Alabama, and set the tone for that defense with his motor and aggressive play. In addition to his outstanding cover skills, he's very disruptive when turned loose as a pass-rusher. He'd be a good fit in Minnesota as the Vikings' weakside linebacker.

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Post Re: 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards
frosted21 wrote:
You got it! These are from his "big board". He last updated it on January 16th, obviously before his most recent mock, so it may have changed between then and now but:


Thank you VERY much for posting that info! It was good reading and I've been interested for a while in getting Kiper's take on a few of these players. I consider him one of the draft analysts who really does his homework so I always find his take interesting, at the very least. I appreciate you including McShay's take on Mosely too.

Kiper himself doesn't give detailed analysis on the rest (not that I could find laid out like this, at least), but if you are curious about a specific player, I have access to the Scouts, Inc. scouting reports through Insider (which are very detailed) on most (not all, unfortunately, I think there will be more as we approach the draft) of the prospects in the draft. Let me know if your curious about anyone in particular and I would be glad to post. Also, I would be willing to post McShay and Kiper's full mocks later if anyone is interested.[/quote]

I'm sure several people would be interested.

I'd love to see the Scouts, Inc. reports on Carr and McCarron, particularly Carr. I won't be surprised if the Vikings pass on drafting a QB at #8 so I'm very intrigued by the next tier of QBs after what has become "the big 3" in this draft.

Thanks again!


Fri Feb 07, 2014 1:07 pm
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Post Re: 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards
No problem, helps familiarize myself with some of these guys as well.

First the Scouts, Inc. total prospect grading scale:

90-100 Rare Prospect
Player demonstrates rare abilities and can create mismatches that have an obvious impact on the game. Is a premier college player that has all the skill to take over a game and play at a championship level. He rates in the top 5 players in the nation at his position and is considered a first round draft prospect.
80-89 Outstanding Prospect
Player has abilities to create mismatches versus most opponents in the NFL. A feature player that has an impact on the outcome of the game. Cannot be shut down by a single player and plays on a consistent level week in and week out. He rates in the top 10 at his position and is considered a second round draft prospect.
70-79 Solid Prospect
Still a standout player at the college level that is close to being an elite player. He has no glaring weaknesses and will usually win his individual matchups, but does not dominate in every game, especially when matched up against the top players in the country. He will usually rate in the top third of players at his position and is considered a third round draft prospect.
60-69 Good Prospect
This player is an good starter that will give a solid effort week in and week out, but he is overmatched versus the better players in the nation. His weaknesses will be exposed against top competition. He is usually a prospect that is missing something from his game. For example, he has the size and skills to be an outstanding prospect, but lacks the speed. He will usually rate in the top half of the players at his position and is considered a middle round draft choice.
50-59 Adequate Prospect
These are usually players that play at a high level in college, but lack some measurables or skills to play at that same level in the NFL. He may be a player that has a lot of developmental qualities, or could be a player that will contribute right away on special teams or in a situational capacity. He will usually rate in the second-third at his position and is considered a fifth round draft choice.
21-49 Borderline Draft Prospect
These are players that teams like something about, but certainly do not have the full package in terms of NFL talent. A lot of times, teams will take chances on character players or developmental type athletes with this grade. And often, these are players that come from smaller schools or did not standout at the college level. NFL teams are looking for 'diamonds in the rough' with this type of prospect. He will usually rate in the bottom third of players at his position and will be considered a late round draft choice or un-drafted free agent.
20 Free Agent Prospect
These are players that did not make our original 'evaluation list' but are prospects that need to be monitored. Especially in the pre-season, these players will fluctuate up and down depending on performance in their final year of eligibility.
10 Not a legitimate Prospect
These are players that lack NFL measurables and/or skills. They are players that we feel would not even make a solid contribution as a training camp body.


Here is their (Scouts, Inc.) top ten for quarterbacks - I am not sure when these grades/ranks were last updated:

1. Teddy Bridgewater (93)
2. Blake Bortles (92)
3. Johnny Manziel (90)
4. AJ McCarron (85)
5. Zach Mettenberger (79)
6. Jimmy Garoppolo (69)
7. Logan Thomas (66)
8. Aaron Murray (60)
9. Derek Carr (55)
10. Stephen Morris (52)


Individual category break down grading scale is as follows:

1 = EXCEPTIONAL
2 = ABOVE AVERAGE
3 = AVERAGE
4 = BELOW AVERAGE
5 = MARGINAL


Derek Carr (Scouts Grade: 55)
6-2⅛, 215 lbs

Overall Football Traits

Production: 2 2009: (5/0)- 10-14-71.4-112-0-0 2010: Redshirted 2011: (13/13)- 279-446-62.6-3,544-26-9 2012: (13/13)- 344-511-4,104-67.3-37-7

Height-Weight-Speed: 3 Slightly shorter than average but well within QB parameters. Athletic build. Needs to add bulk to frame. Also has small hand-span. Displays above average top-end speed for position.

Durability: 4 Has proven to be durable by starting all 26 games the past two seasons (2011-12). Showed toughness late in 2012 playing through sports hernia injury, which required off-season surgery. Needs to add body mass and strength to frame.

Intangibles: 1 Outstanding intangibles. Elite work ethic. Eats, drinks, breathes football. No character or behavior concerns. Married (Heather) on June 29, 2012. One of three sons of Rodger and Sheryl Carr. Both both brothers, Darren and David, played DI football. David was QB at Fresno State and No. 1 overall NFL draft selection (Texans) in 2002. Darren was a defensive lineman at Houston.

Quarterback Specific Traits

Mental Makeup : 2 Very good football intelligence. Has great command of offense and continues to get more freedom at line of scrimmage. Fits best in West Coast system. Decisive. At his best getting ball out quickly and generating run-after-catch opportunities for pass catchers. Has fast eyes. Goes through progressions quickly. Above average decision maker. Occasionally tries to do too much and will force the ball.

Accuracy: 3 When in rhythm, shows good accuracy short-to-intermediate. High percentage of throws studied in four games (from 2012 season) were within 10 yards of line of scrimmage. Slightly below average accuracy when forced to throw off-platform. Anticipation is below average and needs to improve. Gets a bit hyperactive with feet once mental alarm clock sounds and can miss within strike zone on some shorter throws as a result. Does a nice job of tying his feet to eyes when going through progressions, which allows him to make quick and accurate throws. Accuracy on deep ball was below average on limited views from 2012 tape study (four games). Bad habit of chucking-and-ducking on vertical throws. Needs to hang in pocket, transfer weight from front to back, and follow through (even if it requires taking a big hit).

Release/Arm Strength: 3 Good ball carriage. Has quick, compact delivery. Get snap ball off quickly when necessary. Gets a lot of RPMs on ball but not quite as much zip as it seems. Still, can get above average velocity on deep outs when he steps follows through and gets proper hip rotation. Can get the ball downfield with a good trajectory but only if his mechanics are sound. Does not have the elite arm to drive ball vertically off back foot, which he attempts to do far too often. Punt-like hang time when he doesn't transfer weight on deep ball.

Pocket Mobility: 3 Has adequate pocket presence. Good tempo; sudden with feet and eyes. Excels at making quick reads and getting ball out of his hands. Not much of a running threat but shows quick feet to sidestep/climb inside pocket. Almost always looking to reset feet and get ball out of his hands. Goes down too easily. Not sold on toughness inside the pocket.

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Post Re: 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards
Individual category break down grading scale is as follows:

1 = EXCEPTIONAL
2 = ABOVE AVERAGE
3 = AVERAGE
4 = BELOW AVERAGE
5 = MARGINAL


AJ McCarron (Scouts Grade: 85)
6-3⅜, 204 lbs

Overall Football Traits

Production: 1 2009: Redshirted. 2010: (13/0) -30-48-62.5-389-3-02011: (13/13) -219-328-66.8-2,634-16-5. 2012: (14/14) - 211-314-67.2-2,933-30-3

Height-Weight-Speed: 2 Good frame but lacks bulk and needs to improve his muscle mass. Needs to add lower body mass and upper body strength. Shorter than average arms but bigger than average hand span. Very good speed for position.

Durability: 2 Lean frame is mildly concerning at this point. Is tough and will play through pain. Played final six games of 2012 season with injured ribs. Started all 27 games the past two seasons (2011-12) and played in all 13 games as a redshirt freshman in 2010 (all 13 as holder and eight as backup QB).

Intangibles: 3 Very confident player. Is maturing and is growing into leadership role. Will put in extra work in film room. Average student. Graduated in December, 2012 (Human Environmental Science major). No off-the-field incidents of significance. 25-2 as a starter with back-to-back national titles. From Mobile, AL.

Quarterback Specific Traits

Mental Makeup : 1 Outstanding competitor. Despises losing. Not afraid to get into player's faces and demands excellence. Can be a bit emotional but love his confident, take-charge approach. Hard work in tape room transfers to field. Has developed into a good decision maker. Very decisive and doesn't hold onto ball. Excellent ball security; enters 2013 season with 49 TDs compared to just 8 INTs.

Accuracy: 3 Very good accuracy short-to-intermediate. Throws to spots accurately before WR breaks. Can lead receivers to yards after catch. Has touch and timing. However, deep ball accuracy is poor and must improve. Too many balls thrown up for grabs. Gets away with it too often because his WRs go make plays on the ball, but won't suffice in NFL.

Release/Arm Strength: 4 Gets adequate zip on intermediate throws. Bit of an elongated delivery. Displays below-average arm strength on deep ball. Really has to wind up when attempting to drive the ball vertically.

Pocket Mobility: 2 Deceptively athletic. Shows above average pocket presence. Consistently slides/steps up away from pass rushers. Can quickly reset feet and throw. Has very good speed for position. Frequently able to break contain (if initial play fails) and buy extra time for WRs. Also a mild running threat when he tucks the ball and goes.

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Post Re: 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards
FWIW, it does seem these were done during or prior to last season.

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Post Re: 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards
frosted21 wrote:
FWIW, it does seem these were done during or prior to last season.


Yeah, you can tell when reading them closely.

Thank you very much for posting that information. I'm very intrigued by both of those QBs. they both seem to have strong leadership, intangible, and decision-making qualities.

Jim


Sat Feb 08, 2014 11:34 am
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Post Re: 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards
One of the most...unique mocks I've seen so far (with trades): http://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-draft/ ... ke-bortles

Quote:
*Jets trade picks 18 and 49 to the Minnesota Vikings for pick No. 8 (Jets take WR Mike Evans)

Quote:
18. TRADE Minnesota Vikings (via New York Jets) - Derek Carr, Quarterback, Fresno State

With the top three quarterbacks off the board at pick No. 8, the Vikings could go a few different directions. They could reach for a quarterback at No. 8 or they could trade down and collect more picks. Obviously trading down is easier said than done. In this version of the NFL Draft, the Vikings find a trade partner and still get their quarterback. Derek Carr grades out as a second-round pick, but quarterbacks tend to get a bump in value as the draft approaches.

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Mon Feb 10, 2014 10:01 pm
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Post Re: 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards
Bucky Brooks' Top 25: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap200000 ... ter_nfl_cb

A few surprises, notably: Barr above Watkins, Robinson at #2 overall, Mack "way down" at #15 and Ryan Shazier at #14.

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Post Re: 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards
Josh Norris/ latest: http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/4 ... aft-feb-17

With trades. Blake Bortles at #1 overall. Three QBs selected with the first three picks. MIN trades down (with St. Louis).

Quote:
13. Minnesota Vikings (Trade via STL) - QB Derek Carr, Fresno State

We saw a similar move last year with the Bills, trading back with a quarterback in mind. Carr and Norv Turner would be fun to watch. The Fresno State product will frustrate and wow his fan base all in the same game. Carr does not throw from a balanced base on a consistent basis, but his arm hits throws at every level of the field with touch and velocity.

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Mon Feb 17, 2014 1:39 pm
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Post Re: 2014 Mock drafts
radar55 wrote:
D. Carr at # 8 is C. Ponder #2



What makes you warrant that Opinion? Many scouts say Carr has the strongest arm in this draft and a high upside, Ponder was the most 'NFL ready QB' he wasnt seen as a gun slinger like Carr could be.

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Mon Feb 17, 2014 2:56 pm
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Post Re: 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards
dead_poet wrote:
Josh Norris/ latest: http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/4 ... aft-feb-17

With trades. Blake Bortles at #1 overall. Three QBs selected with the first three picks. MIN trades down (with St. Louis).

Quote:
13. Minnesota Vikings (Trade via STL) - QB Derek Carr, Fresno State

We saw a similar move last year with the Bills, trading back with a quarterback in mind. Carr and Norv Turner would be fun to watch. The Fresno State product will frustrate and wow his fan base all in the same game. Carr does not throw from a balanced base on a consistent basis, but his arm hits throws at every level of the field with touch and velocity.


Eh, I would prefer they stick and take Barr or in that trade down scenario grabbing Mosley.


Mon Feb 17, 2014 3:08 pm
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Post Re: 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards
S197 wrote:
dead_poet wrote:
Josh Norris/ latest: http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/4 ... aft-feb-17

With trades. Blake Bortles at #1 overall. Three QBs selected with the first three picks. MIN trades down (with St. Louis).

Quote:
13. Minnesota Vikings (Trade via STL) - QB Derek Carr, Fresno State

We saw a similar move last year with the Bills, trading back with a quarterback in mind. Carr and Norv Turner would be fun to watch. The Fresno State product will frustrate and wow his fan base all in the same game. Carr does not throw from a balanced base on a consistent basis, but his arm hits throws at every level of the field with touch and velocity.


Eh, I would prefer they stick and take Barr or in that trade down scenario grabbing Mosley.


I would rather stay where they're at and draft Mosley than Barr tbh.

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Mon Feb 17, 2014 3:16 pm
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Post Re: 2014 Mock drafts/Big boards
saint33 wrote:

I would rather stay where they're at and draft Mosley than Barr tbh.


In the linked scenario they could trade down and take Mosley. I'd be okay with them taking Mosley at #8 (depending on how the board shakes out), I'm just very wary of Carr. Even at #13.


Mon Feb 17, 2014 4:23 pm
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Post Re: 2014 Mock drafts
Mercy Percy wrote:
radar55 wrote:
D. Carr at # 8 is C. Ponder #2



What makes you warrant that Opinion? Many scouts say Carr has the strongest arm in this draft and a high upside, Ponder was the most 'NFL ready QB' he wasnt seen as a gun slinger like Carr could be.


I love how there is this impression that Carr has a big arm, or a lot of "arm talent", whatever that is. One look at the content of this article:

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/45952/349/2014s-quarterback-conundrum

completely dispels the idea that Carr is good at hitting deeper targets OR handling pressure. This is from the section that analyzes where the "Top 4" QB's threw the ball:

Quote:
- Derek Carr is the complete opposite, throwing 33% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage, but few in the 1-10 yard range. The high number of short attempts means that he throws the deep ball less than average 11.35% of the time. In addition he throws to the important intermediate zone (11-20 yards) 18.3% of the time which means overall he pushes the ball down the field less than normal.


How about accuracy down the field?

Quote:
- Having a big arm is a trait that every scout desires, but that doesn’t matter if it’s not particularly effective. Derek Carr’s accuracy on 20+ yard throws is poor, coming in nearly 7% below-average. In addition, his accuracy on NFL type throws (11-20 yards) is just about as expected at 64%. His only redeeming category is in the 6-10 yard range where he is slightly above average.


How about under pressure?

Quote:
- Upon first glance it’s pretty clear that Carr is lacking in both categories. His 50% completion percentage when under pressure is the worst among the top 8 QBs in this class and he’s not setting the world ablaze against the blitz either.


Well, maybe it was the system. Maybe in a normal pro-style system, Carr would improve?

Quote:
- Derek Carr on the other hand would lose 3.5% off his completion percentage for the season. When you decrease his number of screens which are a high percentage pass and increase the number of below-average deep passes – it shows how much effect the system had on his production.


These are the hard numbers compared to his peers his this year's draft class. Carr may throw well when he has the red jersey on, and he may be very intelligent and possess spectacular arm talent, but the facts remain. The guy is a senior who still has significant questions surrounding his mechanics, ability to handle the blitz, accuracy when throwing past 5 yards, and completes a horrendously low percentage of passes longer than 10 yards. Think about what we've gone through watching Ponder for the last 3 years, look at the data that supports the quoted article, and then tell me you still want Carr *anywhere* in this year's draft. I'm not talking at #8. I'm not talking about the 2nd round. I'm talking as an undrafted free agent.

I know there are some who will think that is harsh, and maybe so, but I'm just not sure why any Viking fan would want someone who posted numbers like those after what we've gone through watching Ponder.


Mon Feb 17, 2014 11:40 pm
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Post Re: 2014 Mock drafts
VikingLord wrote:
Mercy Percy wrote:
radar55 wrote:
D. Carr at # 8 is C. Ponder #2



What makes you warrant that Opinion? Many scouts say Carr has the strongest arm in this draft and a high upside, Ponder was the most 'NFL ready QB' he wasnt seen as a gun slinger like Carr could be.


I love how there is this impression that Carr has a big arm, or a lot of "arm talent", whatever that is. One look at the content of this article:

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/45952/349/2014s-quarterback-conundrum

completely dispels the idea that Carr is good at hitting deeper targets OR handling pressure. This is from the section that analyzes where the "Top 4" QB's threw the ball:

Quote:
- Derek Carr is the complete opposite, throwing 33% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage, but few in the 1-10 yard range. The high number of short attempts means that he throws the deep ball less than average 11.35% of the time. In addition he throws to the important intermediate zone (11-20 yards) 18.3% of the time which means overall he pushes the ball down the field less than normal.


How about accuracy down the field?

Quote:
- Having a big arm is a trait that every scout desires, but that doesn’t matter if it’s not particularly effective. Derek Carr’s accuracy on 20+ yard throws is poor, coming in nearly 7% below-average. In addition, his accuracy on NFL type throws (11-20 yards) is just about as expected at 64%. His only redeeming category is in the 6-10 yard range where he is slightly above average.


How about under pressure?

Quote:
- Upon first glance it’s pretty clear that Carr is lacking in both categories. His 50% completion percentage when under pressure is the worst among the top 8 QBs in this class and he’s not setting the world ablaze against the blitz either.


Well, maybe it was the system. Maybe in a normal pro-style system, Carr would improve?

Quote:
- Derek Carr on the other hand would lose 3.5% off his completion percentage for the season. When you decrease his number of screens which are a high percentage pass and increase the number of below-average deep passes – it shows how much effect the system had on his production.


These are the hard numbers compared to his peers his this year's draft class. Carr may throw well when he has the red jersey on, and he may be very intelligent and possess spectacular arm talent, but the facts remain. The guy is a senior who still has significant questions surrounding his mechanics, ability to handle the blitz, accuracy when throwing past 5 yards, and completes a horrendously low percentage of passes longer than 10 yards. Think about what we've gone through watching Ponder for the last 3 years, look at the data that supports the quoted article, and then tell me you still want Carr *anywhere* in this year's draft. I'm not talking at #8. I'm not talking about the 2nd round. I'm talking as an undrafted free agent.

I know there are some who will think that is harsh, and maybe so, but I'm just not sure why any Viking fan would want someone who posted numbers like those after what we've gone through watching Ponder.


I have posted it before and I will again. I hope that the Vikings stay far away from Carr he has bust written all over him.

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Tue Feb 18, 2014 1:10 am
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Post Re: 2014 Mock drafts
VikingLord wrote:
Mercy Percy wrote:
radar55 wrote:
D. Carr at # 8 is C. Ponder #2



What makes you warrant that Opinion? Many scouts say Carr has the strongest arm in this draft and a high upside, Ponder was the most 'NFL ready QB' he wasnt seen as a gun slinger like Carr could be.


I love how there is this impression that Carr has a big arm, or a lot of "arm talent", whatever that is. One look at the content of this article:

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/45952/349/2014s-quarterback-conundrum

completely dispels the idea that Carr is good at hitting deeper targets OR handling pressure. This is from the section that analyzes where the "Top 4" QB's threw the ball:

Quote:
- Derek Carr is the complete opposite, throwing 33% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage, but few in the 1-10 yard range. The high number of short attempts means that he throws the deep ball less than average 11.35% of the time. In addition he throws to the important intermediate zone (11-20 yards) 18.3% of the time which means overall he pushes the ball down the field less than normal.


How about accuracy down the field?

Quote:
- Having a big arm is a trait that every scout desires, but that doesn’t matter if it’s not particularly effective. Derek Carr’s accuracy on 20+ yard throws is poor, coming in nearly 7% below-average. In addition, his accuracy on NFL type throws (11-20 yards) is just about as expected at 64%. His only redeeming category is in the 6-10 yard range where he is slightly above average.


How about under pressure?

Quote:
- Upon first glance it’s pretty clear that Carr is lacking in both categories. His 50% completion percentage when under pressure is the worst among the top 8 QBs in this class and he’s not setting the world ablaze against the blitz either.


Well, maybe it was the system. Maybe in a normal pro-style system, Carr would improve?

Quote:
- Derek Carr on the other hand would lose 3.5% off his completion percentage for the season. When you decrease his number of screens which are a high percentage pass and increase the number of below-average deep passes – it shows how much effect the system had on his production.


These are the hard numbers compared to his peers his this year's draft class. Carr may throw well when he has the red jersey on, and he may be very intelligent and possess spectacular arm talent, but the facts remain. The guy is a senior who still has significant questions surrounding his mechanics, ability to handle the blitz, accuracy when throwing past 5 yards, and completes a horrendously low percentage of passes longer than 10 yards. Think about what we've gone through watching Ponder for the last 3 years, look at the data that supports the quoted article, and then tell me you still want Carr *anywhere* in this year's draft. I'm not talking at #8. I'm not talking about the 2nd round. I'm talking as an undrafted free agent.

I know there are some who will think that is harsh, and maybe so, but I'm just not sure why any Viking fan would want someone who posted numbers like those after what we've gone through watching Ponder.


that's an awesome article, thank you for posting it.

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Tue Feb 18, 2014 1:16 am
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Post Re: 2014 Mock drafts
VikingLord wrote:
These are the hard numbers compared to his peers his this year's draft class. Carr may throw well when he has the red jersey on, and he may be very intelligent and possess spectacular arm talent, but the facts remain. The guy is a senior who still has significant questions surrounding his mechanics, ability to handle the blitz, accuracy when throwing past 5 yards, and completes a horrendously low percentage of passes longer than 10 yards. Think about what we've gone through watching Ponder for the last 3 years, look at the data that supports the quoted article, and then tell me you still want Carr *anywhere* in this year's draft. I'm not talking at #8. I'm not talking about the 2nd round. I'm talking as an undrafted free agent.

I know there are some who will think that is harsh, and maybe so, but I'm just not sure why any Viking fan would want someone who posted numbers like those after what we've gone through watching Ponder.


Because there's more to his game than what those stats reveal (like his off-the-charts TD-to-INT ratio over the last 2 years and his leadership qualities)? Sheesh, I can understand why you wouldn't want Carr in the first or even the second round but to suggest he wouldn't even be worth signing as an undrafted free agent is pretty extreme.

I think people are way too down on the guy. I'd be happy to see him in a Vikings uniform next season.

Regarding the article: it's been posted on the board before and it's an interesting read but considering the take you posted above ("I love how there is this impression that Carr has a big arm, or a lot of "arm talent", whatever that is. One look at the content of this article... completely dispels the idea that Carr is good at hitting deeper targets OR handling pressure"), I'd say it's worth quoting the introduction to the article as well:

Quote:
With respect to quarterbacks in the draft, you’ll always hear pundits make observations such as, “this QB has a great deep ball” or “he always folds when he’s under pressure in the pocket.” But how do you know those are true and not bias from a small sample of observed snaps? The simple answer is that you don’t. What I’ve aimed to do this year (and in years past) is to quantify those observations in an effort complement film study and analysis of draft prospects. Instead of guessing about the potency of Manziel’s deep ball, you can pull up the legitimate statistic.

To do that, I’ve hand charted every one of Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, Johnny Manziel, and Blake Bortles’ attempts this year on everything from pass distance to throws against the blitz. The data here can’t render an opinion for you, but it can provide an effective complement to your knowledge on a prospect.


In other words, even the author of the article isn't suggesting that the information he posted is definitive on it's own and how could it be? There are too many other variables to account for, which is why scouting and film study are so important.


Tue Feb 18, 2014 9:58 am
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