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 Study:NFL Teams Have No Idea What They're Doing In The Draft 
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Post Study:NFL Teams Have No Idea What They're Doing In The Draft
Worthwhile read.

Quote:
The study was naturally controversial, in part due to misreadings. It deals only in probabilities, not in individual picks. If you trade up and land a player who turns out to be a superstar, it was a good trade. The study merely says that in most cases, that possibility doesn't justify the risk.

It also has little chance of making an impact in actual front office behavior, because of the very psychological barriers it cites. In terms of "impact"—tickets sold, media coverage garnered, general excitement—a top pick is always going to be desirable. Even more important is the corollary: the fear of missing out on a superstar. That's the kind of thing that costs GMs their jobs, and leads to moves that look sexy in the short term but don't work out over time.


http://deadspin.com/study-nfl-teams-hav ... socialflow

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Tue Sep 24, 2013 3:18 pm
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Post Re: Study:NFL Teams Have No Idea What They're Doing In The D
A lot of interesting comments to that piece.
It's difficult to accept generalities about the draft and what succeeds or not.
I often wonder about players who don't make it and if their path would have worked out had they been drafted by another team.

It's a crapshoot for the most part IMO. Some guys are easy to spot as having what it takes...or not, but it's the minority.

I think GMs focus far too much on the physical side of things rather than being able to look at a guy and say that he has a passion for football and understands how to play the game.

Too many mono skilled numbskulls getting picked and paid because they are big and fast, who need 3 years before they are competent and trustworthy to play football.
Doesn't seem like they are required to learn much in college any more.


Tue Sep 24, 2013 5:44 pm
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Post Re: Study:NFL Teams Have No Idea What They're Doing In The D
Great article. It points up many of the reasons that the Vikings find themselves in their current predicament. Overvaluing players, trading away picks to move up, and overconfidence.


Tue Sep 24, 2013 6:16 pm
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Post Re: Study:NFL Teams Have No Idea What They're Doing In The D
Yeah, I've always thought trading up seemed bad, staying put was probably the best, but trading back could be viable for the right deal. It depends on the draft of course but I feel like it's too expensive to trade up, but clearly that's where the talent is so trading back doesn't really make sense either. The other part of that logic is, if the draft really is a crap shoot, which it most likely is, it makes more sense to have as many shots in the dark as possible which also favors not trading up.

Let's look at some recent things just from our own team. We traded up spending multiple picks for Tarvaris Jackson. We spend a couple picks to trade up for Toby Gerhart. We traded back from #3 with the browns, got some extra picks, still took matt kalil, perfect example of why trading down is good. Trade up for Patterson and so far it hasn't been worth it. The Harrison Smith trade up has been huge though.

Trading up is always risky and no guarantee of anything. The most likely reason to trade up is for a QB and that's the biggest crap shoot of them all so that's an even more dangerous situation. In fact I think you'd be better off just drafting the best QB available when your picks came around. So if you spent like a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd trading up, just draft 3 QB's there and you get multiple chances to find a stud. Like we got Ponder, cassel, MBT, if we drafted 3 new guys we could easily do it and get rid of the other 3 and the optimism at QB would be huge.


Thu Sep 26, 2013 4:58 pm
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Post Re: Study:NFL Teams Have No Idea What They're Doing In The D
The Vikings also traded back for Cook after goofing and thinking they had Wilson.


Fri Sep 27, 2013 1:49 pm
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Post Re: Study:NFL Teams Have No Idea What They're Doing In The D
mondry wrote:
The Harrison Smith trade up has been huge though.


But they might have also taken a chance that he would have been available at #35. The Vikings gave away a top 100 pick (fourth round, #98) to move up just six spots. Right now, a fourth round guard, linebacker or cornerback might look pretty good playing ahead of all the sixth and seventh rounders and undrafted backups that they're playing.


Fri Sep 27, 2013 5:58 pm
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Post Re: Study:NFL Teams Have No Idea What They're Doing In The D
Eli wrote:
mondry wrote:
The Harrison Smith trade up has been huge though.


But they might have also taken a chance that he would have been available at #35. The Vikings gave away a top 100 pick (fourth round, #98) to move up just six spots. Right now, a fourth round guard, linebacker or cornerback might look pretty good playing ahead of all the sixth and seventh rounders and undrafted backups that they're playing.


Eh, looking back on it, I think it was still the right move.


I mean, the only players Minnesota could have drafted really at 98 would have been Kirk Cousins, Nigel Bradham, Ben Jones, and Gino Gradkowski (who, coincidentally, the Ravens draft). Really hard to say. Gradkowski was moved to center and starts for Baltimore. Ben Jones was competing for a guard spot, I don't know if he won it or not for Houston. Nigel Bradham started for Buffalo last year, but now he is a role player. Finally, I highly doubt Minnesota would have drafted Kirk Cousins as they wanted to give Ponder a clear slate for 2012.

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Sun Sep 29, 2013 10:46 am
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