Master 2013-14 College QB thread

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Re: Master 2013-14 College QB thread

Post by Mothman » Mon Apr 28, 2014 8:48 am

Eli wrote:I follow your logic, bit I think you'd need to see stats of how other QBs perform to really say that. I'd bet that the best performing QBs _do_ throw most of their INTs due to other factors and are generally disciplined enough not to throw many balls up for grabs when under pressure. The latter is far more likely to result in an interception than a bad read or a poor throw.
Thanks. That's food for thought. I guess it could reflect poor decision making but as you said, throws made under pressure are more likely to result in an interception so I would expect the stats to reflect that for most QBs. Maybe for the best, they don't? I guess, like so many other stats, this one needs context to have much meaning. For example, is "duress" a rapidly closing pocket that results in a QB's arm getting hit or the inability to follow through on his throw or is "duress" a panicked QB fleeing to escape pressure and hurling the ball into triple coverage?
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Re: Master 2013-14 College QB thread

Post by Mothman » Mon Apr 28, 2014 9:03 am

Derek Carr gets a pretty strong endorsement (but not a top ten endorsement) from NFL scout Greg Gabriel:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2042 ... -nfl-draft
None of the quarterbacks in this class has anywhere near the talent of an Andrew Luck or a Matthew Stafford. They all have faults in their game and all need a period of development before they are ready to step in as a starter.

In saying that, I do have one quarterback rated higher than any of the others. That player is Fresno's Derek Carr. While I don't believe that Carr is worthy of being drafted in the top 10, I do believe that he will get drafted somewhere in the first round. If I had to select a quarterback he would be my first choice.
There is not a doubt in my mind that three years from now, when we evaluate at that time how the quarterbacks in this class had played, we will see that Carr was the best one.
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Re: Master 2013-14 College QB thread

Post by dead_poet » Mon Apr 28, 2014 10:47 am

Mothman wrote: Thanks. That's food for thought. I guess it could reflect poor decision making but as you said, throws made under pressure are more likely to result in an interception so I would expect the stats to reflect that for most QBs. Maybe for the best, they don't? I guess, like so many other stats, this one needs context to have much meaning. For example, is "duress" a rapidly closing pocket that results in a QB's arm getting hit or the inability to follow through on his throw or is "duress" a panicked QB fleeing to escape pressure and hurling the ball into triple coverage?
I'm also curious if this charts a receiver error (running the wrong route, slipping, tipping/bobbling the ball that resulted in a pick) and also just really good plays by a defender?
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Re: Master 2013-14 College QB thread

Post by dead_poet » Mon Apr 28, 2014 12:48 pm

Futures: UGA QB Aaron Murray
The most glaring example of the difference between a good college player and a good NFL player is at the quarterback position. It’s also the position where draftniks and football evaluators have one of the loosest working definitions for the term “developmental prospect.” I’ve seen this term used to describe players judged as undrafted free agents who would be best served looking for work with the Canadian or Arena League just as often as I’ve seen it as a label for a second or third-round prospect.

But it was only a few years ago that the NFL draft had nearly twice the number of rounds, which explains why a third-round player and an undrafted free agent can have the same label. Considering that NFL scouting is still rooted in mid-20th century practices (I’m not talking about some teams’ uses of iPads and databases to track and store information, but the actual concepts and techniques they use to assess players), it shouldn’t be a surprise.

Georgia’s Aaron Murray is a quarterback I’ve seen projected by my colleagues at CBS as a third-round prospect and top-100 player, but whose game matches my working definition of a developmental player. The Bulldog’s four-year starter exhibits sound fundamentals, base accuracy in the passing game, and enough awareness to lead a winning football team in one of the best conferences in college football.

However, Murray also epitomizes the skills gap between big-time college passers and the pro quarterbacks fighting for remaining rosters spots in the NFL. This week’s Futures profiles Murray’s comfort zone and where his inner demons lurk. If the Georgia quarterback can expand his ability to translate what he’s learning in the classroom to what he does on the field, he could have a career as a capable backup. However, I think the third-round grade is an optimistic assessment.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/future ... ron-murray
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Re: Master 2013-14 College QB thread

Post by HardcoreVikesFan » Mon Apr 28, 2014 2:55 pm

Mayock re-ranks his QBs (and other positions): http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap200000 ... -nfl-draft
Quarterback
1. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M
2. Blake Bortles, Central Florida
3. Derek Carr, Fresno State
4. Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois
T-5. Zach Mettenberger, LSU
T-5. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville

All I have to say is SWERVE Mike. Yet another analyst has fallen victim to conformity and over-analysis. There is no way in HELL that Jimmy Garoppolo and Zach Mettenberger are better QBs than Bridewater. What an asinine ranking of his QBs.
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Re: Master 2013-14 College QB thread

Post by dead_poet » Mon Apr 28, 2014 3:03 pm

HardcoreVikesFan wrote:Mayock re-ranks his QBs (and other positions): http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap200000 ... -nfl-draft

All I have to say is SWERVE Mike. Yet another analyst has fallen victim to conformity and over-analysis. There is no way in HELL that Jimmy Garoppolo and Zach Mettenberger are better QBs than Bridewater. What an asinine ranking of his QBs.
I've read he's really putting a lot of emphasis on that "bad" pro day.
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Re: Master 2013-14 College QB thread

Post by Mothman » Mon Apr 28, 2014 4:00 pm

HardcoreVikesFan wrote:Mayock re-ranks his QBs (and other positions): http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap200000 ... -nfl-draft

All I have to say is SWERVE Mike. Yet another analyst has fallen victim to conformity and over-analysis. There is no way in HELL that Jimmy Garoppolo and Zach Mettenberger are better QBs than Bridewater. What an asinine ranking of his QBs.
LOL! How do you really feel about it, my friend? ;)

If, as dead_poet said, Mayock is putting a lot of emphasis on Bridgewater's pro day than that's probably a mistake. However, even though I don't agree with Mayock's assessment, I will say that it's not a question of who is the better QB now but who projects better into the pros. Garoppolo played for a small school and Mettenberger has his own issues but they don't have the questions about size and "frame" than seem to nag Bridgewater. i definitely feel he's been over-analyzed.

In the end, it's all somewhat farcical as the analysts try to figure out where to rank these QBs and we all react to their opinions. Nobody has a clue who will actually succeed in the pros.
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Re: Master 2013-14 College QB thread

Post by HardcoreVikesFan » Mon Apr 28, 2014 5:44 pm

Warning: Rant incoming.

What irks me is the way in which Bridgewater's stock is dropping. Scouts have had years to evaluate Bridgewater. For months, there was nothing but positive talk about Bridgewater. Now, all of the sudden, Bridgewater is tainted.

Bridgewater's stock is not dropping due to off the field issues. If that were the case, I could understand it. However, to my and anyone's knowledge, there are no off the field issues present. His stock is not dropping because the NFL scouting community found a 'lost tape of suckitude' that centers on Bridgewater. His stock is not dropping due to injury. So what exactly is causing his stock to drop? A Pro Day performance and conformity.

Teddy had one bad Pro Day and now he suddenly 'sucks.' A Pro Day. A day in which a quarterback does essentially the same thing he did at the Combine, save for more individual attention and a few more drills. Was his Pro Day less than stellar? Sure. However, if one is going to use one's Pro Day as the basis for how a guy is going to perform in the NFL, they have zero credibility. The fact that the media has the audacity to sit there and tell me that a guy who was once the top overall quarterback prospect in the draft suddenly displays, as one analyst put it, 'fourth round talent' because of a #### pro day performance is pathetic. I am not buying it.

Media conformity is killing this guy's stock and I cannot help but feel sorry for him. In this day and age of endless information and connectivity, it is not surprising how popular opinion can be formed. A couple of scouts and media types didn't like Bridgewater's Pro Day. Although I don't know the exact origin, the 'Bridgewater sucks' bandwagon has gained constant passengers ever since his Pro Day because of those who didn't like Bridgewater's performance. Sometimes the smallest voices can become endless echoes if enough people join in on the shouting. I feel this is exactly what is happening with Bridgewater. Many of these 'experts' are hypocrites in their own right. They just want to appear that they know what they are talking about by joining in on the Bridgewater sucks bandwagon. Yet, many of these 'experts' were the same ones who were touting Bridgewater as the best, or second best, quarterback in this draft just back in February.

Those who are fixated on the media's opinion of Bridgewater should go watch the 'tape' and form their own opinion. I am not an NFL scout. I am an amateur. However, I believe I know more than enough about football to realize when a player has the ability to play football well. Bridgewater has the ability to play good football in the NFL. I admittedly am not a Louisville student nor am I fan. I didn't watch Bridgewater every Saturday. I have not gone over countless hours of film breaking him down. However, I have watched him enough to see that he is football smart. I have seen that he has an above average arm. I have seen that he knows how to place a ball for a receiver to catch it. Above all, I have seen that Bridgewater is decisive with the football. Is that to say no other quarterback in this draft possess these traits? No. However, in my opinion, Bridgewater (compared to the other quarterbacks in the draft) displays these traits better than anyone else in the draft.


/rant
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Re: Master 2013-14 College QB thread

Post by Funkytown » Mon Apr 28, 2014 5:49 pm

Good rant. :appl: Excellent points, as well.

Feel better? ;)
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Re: Master 2013-14 College QB thread

Post by Mothman » Mon Apr 28, 2014 5:58 pm

HardcoreVikesFan wrote:Warning: Rant incoming.

What irks me is the way in which Bridgewater's stock is dropping. Scouts have had years to evaluate Bridgewater. For months, there was nothing but positive talk about Bridgewater. Now, all of the sudden, Bridgewater is tainted.

Bridgewater's stock is not dropping due to off the field issues. If that were the case, I could understand it. However, to my and anyone's knowledge, there are no off the field issues present. His stock is not dropping because the NFL scouting community found a 'lost tape of suckitude' that centers on Bridgewater. His stock is not dropping due to injury. So what exactly is causing his stock to drop? A Pro Day performance and conformity.

Teddy had one bad Pro Day and now he suddenly 'sucks.' A Pro Day. A day in which a quarterback does essentially the same thing he did at the Combine, save for more individual attention and a few more drills. Was his Pro Day less than stellar? Sure. However, if one is going to use one's Pro Day as the basis for how a guy is going to perform in the NFL, they have zero credibility. The fact that the media has the audacity to sit there and tell me that a guy who was once the top overall quarterback prospect in the draft suddenly displays, as one analyst put it, 'fourth round talent' because of a #### pro day performance is pathetic. I am not buying it.

Media conformity is killing this guy's stock and I cannot help but feel sorry for him. In this day and age of endless information and connectivity, it is not surprising how popular opinion can be formed. A couple of scouts and media types didn't like Bridgewater's Pro Day. Although I don't know the exact origin, the 'Bridgewater sucks' bandwagon has gained constant passengers ever since his Pro Day because of those who didn't like Bridgewater's performance. Sometimes the smallest voices can become endless echoes if enough people join in on the shouting. I feel this is exactly what is happening with Bridgewater. Many of these 'experts' are hypocrites in their own right. They just want to appear that they know what they are talking about by joining in on the Bridgewater sucks bandwagon. Yet, many of these 'experts' were the same ones who were touting Bridgewater as the best, or second best, quarterback in this draft just back in February.

Those who are fixated on the media's opinion of Bridgewater should go watch the 'tape' and form their own opinion. I am not an NFL scout. I am an amateur. However, I believe I know more than enough about football to realize when a player has the ability to play football well. Bridgewater has the ability to play good football in the NFL. I admittedly am not a Louisville student nor am I fan. I didn't watch Bridgewater every Saturday. I have not gone over countless hours of film breaking him down. However, I have watched him enough to see that he is football smart. I have seen that he has an above average arm. I have seen that he knows how to place a ball for a receiver to catch it. Above all, I have seen that Bridgewater is decisive with the football. Is that to say no other quarterback in this draft possess these traits? No. However, in my opinion, Bridgewater (compared to the other quarterbacks in the draft) displays these traits better than anyone else in the draft.

/rant
Good rant!

I wonder if the assessment of the actual NFL scouting community has really changed much or if it's the media whose assessment has changed. Were the scouts for NFL teams ever truly rating Bridgewater as the best QB available and a player worthy of a high first round pick or did the media just have a different read on him, hype him up and then get wind of how NFL teams were viewing him and start adjusting their boards?

I have no idea how to answer that but I think it's a possibility.
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Re: Master 2013-14 College QB thread

Post by Mothman » Mon Apr 28, 2014 6:11 pm

This might make you feel a little better, HardcoreVikesFan:

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/teddy-brid ... 27675.html
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Re: Master 2013-14 College QB thread

Post by Demi » Mon Apr 28, 2014 6:24 pm

Mothman wrote:This might make you feel a little better, HardcoreVikesFan:

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/teddy-brid ... 27675.html
I'm wondering about previous cases like this. Didn't Bradford have similar issues pop up? And Matt Leinart was the one I can recall, he was a top 5 guy his junior year, went back, and didn't seem like his stock plummeted until later on? Maybe I'm misremembering. Or forgetting some other players.

There's also the chance his stock is still high with some/most teams and all this negative press coming out now is just what's being fed to the media to try and lower his stock?
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Re: Master 2013-14 College QB thread

Post by Mothman » Mon Apr 28, 2014 7:12 pm

Demi wrote: I'm wondering about previous cases like this. Didn't Bradford have similar issues pop up? And Matt Leinart was the one I can recall, he was a top 5 guy his junior year, went back, and didn't seem like his stock plummeted until later on? Maybe I'm misremembering. Or forgetting some other players.

There's also the chance his stock is still high with some/most teams and all this negative press coming out now is just what's being fed to the media to try and lower his stock?
That's definitely possible.

I don't remember much in regard to the pre-draft talk about Bradford but you're right about Leinart.
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Re: Master 2013-14 College QB thread

Post by HardcoreVikesFan » Mon Apr 28, 2014 7:29 pm

Mothman wrote:This might make you feel a little better, HardcoreVikesFan:

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/teddy-brid ... 27675.html
Thank you for finding that article. That article is poignant and very much in line with how I feel.


It is hard to say, but as the article suggested, the NFL is a copycat league. It wouldn't surprise me in the least bit in the sentiment about Bridgewater that is currently in the media is the same as the sentiment that is in the NFL scouting community.

As Demi pointed out, I have never seen this kind of draft stock plummeting in a guy who did nothing wrong (on-field and off-field). The only guys that come close are Jake Locker and Matt Lineart. I suppose Geno Smith and Matt Barkley last year are examples too.


Honestly, we will not find out until draft day. I have a sinking feeling that Bridgewater has become tainted and that we will pass on him if we have a chance to draft him.
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Re: Master 2013-14 College QB thread

Post by dead_poet » Tue Apr 29, 2014 4:06 pm

Wow.
@Gil_Brandt 33m
.@PapaColli Possibility Garoppolo goes ahead of Bridgewater. I know some teams have those guys flipped. Might be mistake.
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