Master 2013-14 College QB thread

[mondry]

I do believe some QBs will go in the top 10 of this draft. Coaches and GMs buckle under the presssure because their jobs seem to be tied to having a good QB to lead the team to playoffs routinely. So, if a GM has fallen in love with one of the QBs, and they feel comfortable that this kid could keep them employed for next 10 years, they will pull that trigger. And the more GMs that start pulling triggers, causes this chain reaction. Even though we see a group of 8 guys or so that could be good fits, or lead the team. I believe the GMs have it narrowed down to 3-4 guys they are comfortable with, so if 2 of those guys go, they are going to do anything in their power to get one of the remaining ones.. Its why there always seems to be reaches on QBs. When a GM drafts a bad O-Lineman, or DB, or LB. Everyone says it sucks, but they don't generally lose their job over it, unless its an every year occurance. If you are on a QB needy team, and you draft a few bad QBs, you are out of the playoffs, and out of a job. Sort of like in basketball, the game winning/losing shot with no time left on the clock. You may have missed 5 earlier, but make this one, and your a hero. Miss it, and no matter how well you played earlier, your a bum.

I sort of agree with that, but there is something that will get your GM butt fired faster than picking a bust of a QB and that's REACHING for that bust of a QB in the first round. We've argued reaching on this board before so I won't get into that, but if others believe it to be a reach, whether it's the fans, the public, other NFL people, etc, that still creates pressure on that GM. I believe it's actually much safer for GM's to play it "smart" and take what looks like a top prospect -somewhere else- because then it's more like "Well Carr was a bust in the 2nd, but C.J. Mosley's a stud" and so on.

You can say that's kind of what happened to Spielman, though the circumstances are a bit different regarding the picks. Ponder sucks but Matt Kalil, Harrison Smith, Patterson, Rhodes, etc all look pretty solid to me. That of course is over a few drafts but the idea is the same, stay safe with non-qb's in the 1st round, that way when round 2-3 guy doesn't pan out it's not a huge shock. If he takes Carr #8 overall, who I believe will be a bust, and it turns out carr IS a bust, I'll be furious! Granted, who knows how much that matters but I bet I wouldn't be the only one mad about strike #2 at first round QB's.

For this draft especially that tactic seems ultra good / safe.

[Purple bruise]

I am all in with JFB and I have my fingers crossed that somehow the Vikes take him. High risk maybe /very high reward

[Texas Vike]

I am all in with JFB and I have my fingers crossed that somehow the Vikes take him. High risk maybe /very high reward

Me too, I have been from the start. The more i think about it, the more I realize that Manziel is the only QB I'd want at 8. If he's not there I'd rather they wait until the 2nd round or late first at the highest (assuming some Spielman maneuvering).

Mayock's take is a good one and only confirms my own impression of Manziel. I also feel pretty certain that Manziel will go in the first 4 picks.

[Mothman]

I think what gets GMs is fired is losing, and very little else. Failing to find a good QB can contribute to losing, of course, but having a good QB doesn't guarantee wins and playoff appearances. Consequently, I think the popular notion that drafting the wrong QB, reaching for a QB, etc. can cause a GM to lose his job confuses the symptom with the cause. A GM who is putting a good team together and making decisions that keep the team competitive year after year can probably last a pretty long time, even if he doesn't strike gold at QB. Sooner or later, striking out at QB will catch up with any GM but I don't think their jobs ride on QB picks to nearly the degree that they ride on the results in the W/L column.

I'd say it's the head coaches whose jobs are tired most closely to the position. They're fates are determined by wins and losses too but as Leslie Frazier just found out, a GM can survive a bust at QB. A coach isn't likely to...

I suspect Zimmer has as much, if not more, riding on the Vikes QB choices over the next year or two as Spielman. YMMV.

[Mothman]

I sort of agree with that, but there is something that will get your GM butt fired faster than picking a bust of a QB and that's REACHING for that bust of a QB in the first round. We've argued reaching on this board before so I won't get into that, but if others believe it to be a reach, whether it's the fans, the public, other NFL people, etc, that still creates pressure on that GM. I believe it's actually much safer for GM's to play it "smart" and take what looks like a top prospect -somewhere else- because then it's more like "Well Carr was a bust in the 2nd, but C.J. Mosley's a stud" and so on.

You can say that's kind of what happened to Spielman, though the circumstances are a bit different regarding the picks. Ponder sucks but Matt Kalil, Harrison Smith, Patterson, Rhodes, etc all look pretty solid to me. That of course is over a few drafts but the idea is the same, stay safe with non-qb's in the 1st round, that way when round 2-3 guy doesn't pan out it's not a huge shock. If he takes Carr #8 overall, who I believe will be a bust, and it turns out carr IS a bust, I'll be furious! Granted, who knows how much that matters but I bet I wouldn't be the only one mad about strike #2 at first round QB's.

For this draft especially that tactic seems ultra good / safe.

Sure, until you pass up Johnny Manziel and he becomes a star* while your nice, "safe" OT pick ends up being the next Robert Gallery and your team still lacks a franchise QB. That kind of situation can hurt a GM as much as drafting a bust at QB.

* Note, I'm not saying Manziel will be a star. I'm just using him as an example.

[dead_poet]

Teddy Bridgewater - QB - Player

Even after struggling at his Pro Day, ESPN's Chris Mortensen reported Friday that Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater's private workouts with NFL clubs "have also gone very shakily."

Mort believes Bridgewater's forthcoming draft-day slide won't occur solely because of his Pro Day. He says Bridgewater's private passing sessions with teams have been underwhelming, too. Mortensen added that teams remain concerned with Bridgewater's smallish hands. Once considered the likely No. 1 overall pick, Bridgewater's fall could ultimately mimic Geno Smith's from last year.

[HardcoreVikesFan]

Teddy Bridgewater - QB - Player

Even after struggling at his Pro Day, ESPN's Chris Mortensen reported Friday that Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater's private workouts with NFL clubs "have also gone very shakily."

Mort believes Bridgewater's forthcoming draft-day slide won't occur solely because of his Pro Day. He says Bridgewater's private passing sessions with teams have been underwhelming, too. Mortensen added that teams remain concerned with Bridgewater's smallish hands. Once considered the likely No. 1 overall pick, Bridgewater's fall could ultimately mimic Geno Smith's from last year.

Every team that passes on this guy will regret it. Even us. I stand by my proclamation and I am not afraid to suffer the consequences should my proclamation prove to be false.

[Funkytown]

Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater will work out for the Vikings on Saturday.

The Vikings are continuing their quarterback search after meeting with Jimmy Garoppolo on Friday. Bridgewater's private workouts have reportedly gone "very shakily," so he isn't necessarily in play for Minnesota's No. 8 overall pick and could ultimately fall out of the top half of the first round. The Vikings are believed to be high on LSU QB Zach Mettenberger, and have already met with Central Florida's Blake Bortles and Fresno State's Derek Carr. Bridgewater previously visited with the Bucs and Patriots.

 Adam Schefter on Twitter

[Funkytown]

Teddy Bridgewater - QB - Player

Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater's agent told ProFootballTalk his client has only had one private workout, and the assessment they received was "simply amazing and sharp."

This contradicts a report from ESPN's Chris Mortensen stating Bridgewater had looked shaky in his private workouts -- which is obviously impossible considering he has only had one. There is blood in the water surrounding Bridgewater, and NFL teams will say anything or leak any information if it means a coveted player will fall to them. Lying season is in full swing.

 --ProFootballTalk

That last sentence there pretty much sums it up!

[Mothman]

Teddy Bridgewater - QB - Player

Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater's agent told ProFootballTalk his client has only had one private workout, and the assessment they received was "simply amazing and sharp."

This contradicts a report from ESPN's Chris Mortensen stating Bridgewater had looked shaky in his private workouts -- which is obviously impossible considering he has only had one. There is blood in the water surrounding Bridgewater, and NFL teams will say anything or leak any information if it means a coveted player will fall to them. Lying season is in full swing.

 --ProFootballTalk

That last sentence there pretty much sums it up!

Yes, it does. It's all part of the fun!

[Funkytown]

Tom Savage - QB - Player

Pittsburgh QB Tom Savage has declined an invitation to attend the NFL Draft.

Savage has generated significant buzz in recent weeks, so the fact he received an invitation confirms just how high his stock is among NFL decision makers. He's scheduled to visit or work out for as many as 25 teams before the draft. SI's Peter King considers Savage a potential fit for the Texans at No. 33 overall.

Source: Pittsburgh Football on Twitter

--
I'm shocked he was even invited. This year is crazy.

[Purple bruise]

I know that I saw a thread somewhere but I do not feel like trying to find it. I just got home from the movie Draft Day and it is a great movie that most football fans should enjoy.

[Funkytown]

I know that I saw a thread somewhere but I do not feel like trying to find it. I just got home from the movie Draft Day and it is a great movie that most football fans should enjoy.

This? viewtopic.php?f=1&t=26863&start=780

But yes, I loved it too. I thought it was neat.

[Mothman]

I saw this on Rotoworld this morning:

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/player ... 496&spln=1

According to ESPN Stats and Information, Alabama QB AJ McCarron's QBR was better than average in 37 of his 40 career starts.
Not only that, but McCarron had an above average QBR in all 17 games he started against top 25 competition. That's the good news. The bad news is that ESPN reveals that McCarron threw 57 percent of his interceptions last season (four of seven) in the 16 percent of his throws that were under duress. When you couple that skittishness with a lackluster arm -- Rotoworld's Greg Peshek charted McCarron as having the worst adjusted completion percentage (43.24) of passes that traveled 20-plus yards downfield amongst nine quarterbacks evaluated -- you can understand why we'd advise an NFL team to select a different Day 3 developmental QB.

The sentence I've highlighted in bold confuses me. Why would it be bad news that 57% of AJ McCarron's interceptions last season were thrown under duress? Wouldn't the other 43% be more of a concern? It's obviously better if a QB doesn't throw INTs at all but if I were a coach, I'd want all of them to occur as a result of pressure, not just because the QB made a bad throw, a bad read, etc. when he had time and a clean pocket.

[Eli]

The sentence I've highlighted in bold confuses me. Why would it be bad news that 57% of AJ McCarron's interceptions last season were thrown under duress? Wouldn't the other 43% be more of a concern? It's obviously better if a QB doesn't throw INTs at all but if I were a coach, I'd want all of them to occur as a result of pressure, not just because the QB made a bad throw, a bad read, etc. when he had time and a clean pocket.

I follow your logic, bit I think you'd need to see stats of how other QBs perform to really say that. I'd bet that the best performing QBs _do_ throw most of their INTs due to other factors and are generally disciplined enough not to throw many balls up for grabs when under pressure. The latter is far more likely to result in an interception than a bad read or a poor throw.