Keenan Allen's pro day

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Is Allen still a 1st round pick?

Yes
6
33%
No
7
39%
Unsure
5
28%
 
Total votes: 18

John_Viveiros
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Re: Keenan Allen's pro day

Post by John_Viveiros » Thu Apr 11, 2013 10:43 pm

losperros wrote:However, that said, while I once wanted the Vikings to pick a receiver in R1 (and I'm fine with them still doing that), I now think it would be a good idea if they got their WR in R2. And I believe some good ones will still be available to them at that time. Go with MLB and maybe CB or DT in R1.
I think I wrote this same thing in another thread. :thumbsup: I suspect there will be a run on WR's in the 8-15 range of the second round (maybe earlier), so I kind of hope we trade down into that range, unless we have some guy targeted that we know will be there into the early third.

As for some other posts here: We really can't expect much production this year from any single WR draft choice. Rookie WR's are exceedingly unlikely to produce much in their first year. A good result is something like the rookie year of Michael Crabtree in 2009: 48 receptions, 625 yds, 2 TD's, 27 FD. He went #15 and he probably would be the #1 prospect this year. Let these two numbers sink in - 2 TD's all season, and less than 2 first down catches per game. Context is everything of course (Greg Lewis had one of the most consequential catches in Vikings history), but I think I think moving the sticks once or twice per game is Michael Jenkins territory. Of course, grabbing two or three such prospects increases the odds that one provides significant production, and increases the odds that the aggregate production of our rookie WRs is significant.

As for taking Allen completely off our draft boards - he may be too risky for the first round pick, but I'd think he'd be the steal of the draft in the 3rd round (where there's no way he'll be - some one will grab him in the mid-second).

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Re: Keenan Allen's pro day

Post by losperros » Fri Apr 12, 2013 3:53 am

John_Viveiros wrote:As for taking Allen completely off our draft boards - he may be too risky for the first round pick, but I'd think he'd be the steal of the draft in the 3rd round (where there's no way he'll be - some one will grab him in the mid-second).
I'm actually okay with the Vikings taking Allen in R2 if they don't move up to do it. I absolutely don't want them to draft Allen in R1, especially at the expense of not taking a MLB or CB.

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Re: Keenan Allen's pro day

Post by Mothman » Fri Apr 12, 2013 3:06 pm

mrc44 wrote:IMO, there is now way thy take a chance at wr, lb or cb, they will have to draft them early and make sure those positions are covered. I highly believe LB and Wr will be drafted at 23 and 25 unless an AMAZING trade is offered to us. I think the FO will want to close out day 1 of the draft feeling like they have their most needed positions covered.
You're probably right about that but I wonder what the Vikings consider their positions of greatest need. Personally, I think there as many as 3 possible answers to that question (MLB, WR and CB) and with only two first round picks, the Vikings can't address all 3 on Day 1. I'm very curious to see who they'll pick and which positions they will address on the first day of the draft.

I can't discount future issues that could become urgent after this season either so a d-lineman strikes me as a very realistic possibility for one of those first rounders.

I wish the draft would get here already!

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Re: Keenan Allen's pro day

Post by losperros » Fri Apr 12, 2013 3:32 pm

mrc44 wrote:IMO, there is now way thy take a chance at wr, lb or cb, they will have to draft them early and make sure those positions are covered. I highly believe LB and Wr will be drafted at 23 and 25 unless an AMAZING trade is offered to us. I think the FO will want to close out day 1 of the draft feeling like they have their most needed positions covered.

I pretty much agree. The Vikings aren't stupid. They know they badly need help at MLB, CB, and WR, and they will close out the day addressing at least two of those needs. So what order do they choose? I honestly don't know. I think R2 will be where they address their third need.

Regarding WRs making an immediate impact, I don't see any in this draft that I would *guarantee* are going to be a Randy Moss or Megatron. I'm not psychic enough to predict that (well...actually, I'm not psychic at all :D ).

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Re: Keenan Allen's pro day

Post by Eli » Fri Apr 12, 2013 3:33 pm

Mothman wrote:You're probably right about that but I wonder what the Vikings consider their positions of greatest need. Personally, I think there as many as 3 possible answers to that question (MLB, WR and CB) and with only two first round picks, the Vikings can't address all 3 on Day 1. I'm very curious to see who they'll pick and which positions they will address on the first day of the draft.

I can't discount future issues that could become urgent after this season either so a d-lineman strikes me as a very realistic possibility for one of those first rounders.
It is an interesting question, but I just can't see the Vikings drafting a defensive lineman in the first round unless someone really unlikely falls to them. The LB position is an especially gaping need given their current roster. Between WR and CB, I think they'll draft a WR higher, but CB may be an even bigger need. Cook and Robinson are a pretty shaky a pair of starters, and God knows how many games Cook will miss this year.

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Re: Keenan Allen's pro day

Post by Mothman » Fri Apr 12, 2013 3:41 pm

mrc44 wrote:Wow, I completely agree with you this time!
LOL! Other than discussions about keenan Allen, do we disagree that often? ;)
I was having a hard time not throwing DT in there but I believe we have DT's that are capable of playing. But when it comes to WR, LB and CB we literally do not have the depth we need. Those are 3 positions we lost starters in and HAVE to replace. We still have all the same guys at DT don't we?
Yes.

I wouldn't even rule out DE, depending on what Spielman is planning long term. With Robison and Allen both over 30 and both becoming free agents after the 2013 season, Spielman may draft a DE if he likes one of the prospects available at #23 or #25, especially if that player can also play inside.
I believe that all three or even four of the most needed positions for us are very deep, but I feel like the cb position will not have a rolling effect once two or three are picked. What I mean is I can see the WR and LB position working out where once one or two teams that NEEDS a starte grabs one, other teams will panic like we did with Ponder. If this holds to be true, that means Hopkins, woods, Patton, Hunter and maybe even Dobson could be gone by our 2nd round pick. So I just can't picture Spielman taking chances.
I know what you mean although with the number of picks the Vikes have in this draft, they'd have the ammo to move up in R2 if they passed on a WR in R1 and there was a run in R2 (which i definitely think is possible).

I'll be really surprised if the Vikes come out of R1 without a middle linebacker. I have a feeling they see that position as their top priority in this draft.
The other reason I believe we won't pass on WR in the first, is because we all know this is it for Ponder. They are going to want to provide him with the best possibility to prove himself. If they don't, the you are never going to her the end of it when it comes to whether or not he was given a fair chance. You bring in someone like Hopkins, an a Swope/Vernon/Hamilton etc in the later rounds, that's it! He has to prove he is our guy at QB.
I don't know if this is it for Ponder or not but he still has a lot to prove and since Spielman drafted him, I think you make a good point about giving him the best help they can provide. In the end, if I was putting money down on which two positions the Vikes will draft in R1, I'd definitely go with the two positions you named. I think the Vikes will probably draft an MLB and a WR, in that order.
JMO, can't wait til the draft.
The anticipation is really driving me crazy this year!

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Re: Keenan Allen's pro day

Post by Mothman » Fri Apr 12, 2013 3:44 pm

Eli wrote: It is an interesting question, but I just can't see the Vikings drafting a defensive lineman in the first round unless someone really unlikely falls to them. The LB position is an especially gaping need given their current roster. Between WR and CB, I think they'll draft a WR higher, but CB may be an even bigger need. Cook and Robinson are a pretty shaky a pair of starters, and God knows how many games Cook will miss this year.

I see CB the same way. It's pretty shaky.

As you said, I doubt they'll draft a d-lineman in R1 unless someone they really like falls to them.

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Re: Keenan Allen's pro day

Post by losperros » Fri Apr 12, 2013 8:51 pm

Mothman wrote:
I see CB the same way. It's pretty shaky.

As you said, I doubt they'll draft a d-lineman in R1 unless someone they really like falls to them.
With Winfield now gone, I'm thinking there's a very good chance that the Vikings take a CB in R1.

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Re: Keenan Allen's pro day

Post by John_Viveiros » Fri Apr 12, 2013 9:13 pm

losperros wrote: I'm actually okay with the Vikings taking Allen in R2 if they don't move up to do it. I absolutely don't want them to draft Allen in R1, especially at the expense of not taking a MLB or CB.
It was a bit of exaggeration for effect. I don't think Allen is off anyone's draft board to the effect that if he was available at our pick in round three, they wouldn't take him.

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Re: Keenan Allen's pro day

Post by John_Viveiros » Fri Apr 12, 2013 9:26 pm

mrc44 wrote: Ya but you are disregarding the wr's that have made impacts their rookie year. Although there isn't a wr with Julio Jones talent but he made an impact. Crabtree had major issues in his first year in the league and I believe he dealt with an injury as well. Alex Smith NEVER threw to Crabtree! Crabtree didn even really show up until his buddy kaepernik showed up as starting qb.

I disagree with you about a wr not making an instant impact for us. It would be different if we were talking about a team that had wr's to play until the rookie could step in, but our wr pick will start from day 1. Many analysts have said there are a few wr's that would make an immediate impact in the nfl due to their elusiveness or due to amazing route running and separation skills.

IMO, there is now way thy take a chance at wr, lb or cb, they will have to draft them early and make sure those positions are covered. I highly believe LB and Wr will be drafted at 23 and 25 unless an AMAZING trade is offered to us. I think the FO will want to close out day 1 of the draft feeling like they have their most needed positions covered.
A guy with the classic career pattern is Demaryius Thomas of Denver, now considered to be a top line WR. His stats for his first three years:

Code: Select all

                        G	GS	Rec	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	
2012	Denver Broncos	16	16	94  1,434  15.3  71T	10
2011	Denver Broncos	11	 5	32	551	17.2	47	4	
2010	Denver Broncos	10	 2	22	283	12.9	31	2	
                       TOTAL	148	2,268	15.3	71	16	
His first year, nothing special. His second year, about twice as good. His third year, twice as good again. Very, very few guys come into the league and gain 1000 yards. And with Ponder throwing and Peterson running, it ain't happenin' here. A guy of Thomas's quality would be a good find late in the first round. But he wouldn't be helping us out much in 2013.

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Re: Keenan Allen's pro day

Post by Texas Vike » Sat Apr 13, 2013 9:11 am

mrc44 wrote:[
Thats the exact order I am betting we take. Grab Arthur Brown before Indy picks, because LB has been listed as a possibility for them. Then grab Hopkins and feel good before Draft day 1 ends. Then the following day, address CB with BPA (Trufant, Hayden. Taylor, BW Webb, Wrey-Wilson)or DT (Short, Jenkins, Jesse Williams, Carradine).

This should be an excellent draft for us. I dont really see how we could mess this draft up.

I'd be really happy w/ Arthur Brown and DeAndre Hopkins in the 1st.

I really hope we pick 2 or 3 WRs in the first 5 rounds. There is amazing depth this year and we have an amazing dearth of talent = winning combo!

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Re: Keenan Allen's pro day

Post by Mothman » Sat Apr 13, 2013 11:27 am

John_Viveiros wrote:A guy with the classic career pattern is Demaryius Thomas of Denver, now considered to be a top line WR. His stats for his first three years:

Code: Select all

                        G	GS	Rec	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	
2012	Denver Broncos	16	16	94  1,434  15.3  71T	10
2011	Denver Broncos	11	 5	32	551	17.2	47	4	
2010	Denver Broncos	10	 2	22	283	12.9	31	2	
                       TOTAL	148	2,268	15.3	71	16	
His first year, nothing special. His second year, about twice as good. His third year, twice as good again. Very, very few guys come into the league and gain 1000 yards. And with Ponder throwing and Peterson running, it ain't happenin' here. A guy of Thomas's quality would be a good find late in the first round. But he wouldn't be helping us out much in 2013.
It's hard to say. There are always other factors at work. Thomas played in 21 games in his first 2 seasons but only started 7. That could be because he wasn't ready to start or because they didn't think he'd be an upgrade over the players in front of him on the depth chart. In his rookie, season, that was Brandon Lloyd and Jabar Gaffney. Keep in mind that Tim Tebow was Denver's QB in quite a few of those games too and that had an impact on receiving production in Denver.

You definitely have a point about keeping expectations reasonable for what a late round rookie WR will contribute in his first season but honestly, there's just no way to know how much or little a team will get out of a selection like that in year one. Anquan Boldin was the 54th selection in the 2003 draft and he finished his rookie season with 101 catches, 1377 yards and 8 TDs! Marques Colston was the 252nd pick of the 2006 draft and clearly not expected to have a huge impact in his rookie year but he finished that season with 70 catches, 1038 yards and 8 TDs. I realize the exceptions don't prove the rule but essentially, there is no rule. Get the right guy in the right situation and he can produce right out of the gate, even if he isn't a top 5 pick. :)

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Re: Keenan Allen's pro day

Post by mondry » Sat Apr 13, 2013 2:45 pm

Mothman wrote: It's hard to say. There are always other factors at work. Thomas played in 21 games in his first 2 seasons but only started 7. That could be because he wasn't ready to start or because they didn't think he'd be an upgrade over the players in front of him on the depth chart. In his rookie, season, that was Brandon Lloyd and Jabar Gaffney. Keep in mind that Tim Tebow was Denver's QB in quite a few of those games too and that had an impact on receiving production in Denver.

You definitely have a point about keeping expectations reasonable for what a late round rookie WR will contribute in his first season but honestly, there's just no way to know how much or little a team will get out of a selection like that in year one. Anquan Boldin was the 54th selection in the 2003 draft and he finished his rookie season with 101 catches, 1377 yards and 8 TDs! Marques Colston was the 252nd pick of the 2006 draft and clearly not expected to have a huge impact in his rookie year but he finished that season with 70 catches, 1038 yards and 8 TDs. I realize the exceptions don't prove the rule but essentially, there is no rule. Get the right guy in the right situation and he can produce right out of the gate, even if he isn't a top 5 pick. :)
Haha yeah, going from Tim Tebow to Peyton Manning probably helped a little... just guessing. :P

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