New draft trade chart.

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Raptorman
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New draft trade chart.

Post by Raptorman » Sun Apr 30, 2017 7:37 pm

As many know, teams have used a chart for many years in trades. Or at least that's the story. Apparently someone updated it recently.

http://www.patspulpit.com/2017/4/23/153 ... rade-chart
Vikings fan since Nov. 6, 1966. Annoying Packer fans since Nov. 7, 1966

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S197
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Re: New draft trade chart.

Post by S197 » Sun Apr 30, 2017 8:07 pm

This is a good point
Despite the difference in valuation of a pick in rounds five-through-seven, there is no real difference in projected success of a player selected in the fifth, sixth, or seventh rounds; each pick is a lottery ticket. It is important to maintain the volume of lottery tickets, but a sixth round pick and a seventh round pick has roughly the same odds of success.

So the Patriots capitalize on a team’s perception that a sixth round pick is more valuable than a seventh round pick to acquire a veteran on a rookie contract and maintain their volume of lottery tickets.

Remember, the draft value chart does not care about how players perform once they’re in the NFL. The chart only cares about what teams are willing to pay for picks- and there’s a reward for teams smart enough to maneuver the draft board.

mike2mike
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Re: New draft trade chart.

Post by mike2mike » Mon May 01, 2017 10:09 am

Thanks for sharing. I once looked at the probability each pick will either be a :
1)3 year+ starter
2)5 year+ starter
3)probowl
4)all pro
5)3+year probowler
6)3+year all pro

The odds of a player being a 3+ year probowler or 3+year all pro favored actually trading up in the first few picks vs standard draft chart. Everything else favored trading down.

BUT... roster limits actually favor weighting the earlier picks higher than simple probability and a real decision to trade up or down should factor in the draft the ability to replace a particular position and the room you have on the roster.

I always thought the bad teams should trade down and collect future picks because usually they are really bad and need multiple starters as opposed to resting their franchise on a player that doesn't have the supporting cast to succeed. However, a team that is going to lose a lot of talent to waivers and has a crowded roster filled with plenty of youth will probably want to trade up since the 4th round picks may not even be able to make the roster.

I think draft strategy is still in its infancy but perhaps certain teams have some secret formulas hidden away somewhere.


Harvard Sports Analysis made an egregiously bad draft trade chart that failed to take into account the difference between a 7th rounder and an undrafted player and as a result they made 7th round picks worth a huge amount compared to everything else. The reality is that if you trade say a 6th rounder for 2 7ths you are really trading a 6th round and an undrafted free agent for 2 7ths. Without making that adjustment you should always trade down and you should even choose unlimited undrafted players over picking at all.

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Re: New draft trade chart.

Post by mansquatch » Mon May 01, 2017 10:40 am

Great article.
Winning is not a sometime thing it is an all of the time thing - Vince Lombardi

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