The Zimmer Principle

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CharVike
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Re: The Zimmer Principle

Post by CharVike » Sun Apr 04, 2021 6:08 am

Pondering Her Percy wrote:
Sat Apr 03, 2021 11:09 pm
CharVike wrote:
Sat Apr 03, 2021 11:52 am

This is the one that's hard to get out of the mind.
The fact that Mattison couldnt gain a single yard against Seattle to close the game out (when their was a massive hole to the right of him). A PLAYOFF team.
To me it looked like Matti had zero vision. Perfect tunnel vision. He basically could have crawled into the end zone. I couldn't even take a guess on what happened on that play. But it looked like this no base OL we had and are still building that way for movement was driven clear into the intended hole and then our back took the hand off and straight ahead no matter what but didn't even get low enough. Bottom line one step cut and walk in. It was beyond him on that play. Head scratchier for a pro back.
Cousins has the loser label. I watched a blurb on Dak and a guy talking about how Dak brings the boys back late again a true winner. He points out a game against the Giants. A bottom feeder team that he should dominate. Big deal. Then he points out that he almost brought the boys back against the Rodgers lead Packers. The key there is Almost. Almost is another word for loser. I'll stick by what I always post about Cousins that he is the best since Fran. But I would still like to see us try to upgrade. But an upgrade is off the table right now because Zim wants his D fixed. And he's signing one year cast off fixes at a rate that far exceeds even crappy CAP management. Perfect example 10M to a guy that deserves league minimum. Even the min is a long stretch for a guy who can't run anymore.
Yeah that Seattle game was over with one damn yard. But it ends up being another knock on cousins against a winning team in prime time. It’s exactly why I don’t buy into that “cousins vs winning teams in prime time” stat. It doesn’t tell anywhere near the whole story. Not saying he’s never played bad in prime time but Kyle Brandt on Good Morning Football dug deep into that stat a year ago. Cousins actually plays better in prime time games but his defense gave up on average, over 34 points a game in those same games. Just to put that into prospective, no defense in the nfl this year gave up that many points per game on average. The closest was Detroit with 32.4. THAT is how bad his defenses have been in prime time over his career. That’s disgustingly bad
Some just don't think Cousins is a very good QB. I'm ok with that. Shinny stats no win guy. If you post that our D is one of the most pitiful in our history it goes back to teams have won Super Bowls with worse defenses. I'm not even going to get into that one. Now some have pointed out that we are stacked at CB. Who cares about being stacked with young guys that are stilling trying to get up to their highest level, an old guy that has lost his most important physical skill for his game and other so so players like Mac. That's not stacked it's still a major concern in my mind especially when we need to beat out a future HOF QB just for the division title. Then we have the GOAT who is playing as well as ever. We need some ring of honor CBs. People will point out that Cousins CAP hit is killing our team and he should take less but he don't care. Hunter wants more and didn't even contribute last year and maybe this year also. That's up in the air. He don't care either. Zim will improve our D because he has a proven track record and seems pissed that his D was a laughing stock. He's basically pouring whip cream over horse crap at this point. We will go from a joke to average. That won't do it for the show with what we have to face. And when we do crash the lose will go to Cousins because that's part of his positional stat. Our D could turn it around at the end and get hot like the Bucs D did. They made Brees, Rodgers and Mahomes look less than average. That's a huge task. Not many HCs in the history of the NFL has built a D that could play like that for a short stretch. Zim had his chance but let Foles pick apart his D. I'd like to see us get Jones in the draft. That will never happen. But at least we don't have Keenum or some other bum now. Next step will be a DE or OL selection in the draft. That's the logical choice. QB won't enter the thought process until round 4 at the earliest. Too late at that point.
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CharVike
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Re: The Zimmer Principle

Post by CharVike » Sun Apr 04, 2021 7:14 am

CharVike wrote:
Sun Apr 04, 2021 6:08 am
Pondering Her Percy wrote:
Sat Apr 03, 2021 11:09 pm


Yeah that Seattle game was over with one damn yard. But it ends up being another knock on cousins against a winning team in prime time. It’s exactly why I don’t buy into that “cousins vs winning teams in prime time” stat. It doesn’t tell anywhere near the whole story. Not saying he’s never played bad in prime time but Kyle Brandt on Good Morning Football dug deep into that stat a year ago. Cousins actually plays better in prime time games but his defense gave up on average, over 34 points a game in those same games. Just to put that into prospective, no defense in the nfl this year gave up that many points per game on average. The closest was Detroit with 32.4. THAT is how bad his defenses have been in prime time over his career. That’s disgustingly bad
Some just don't think Cousins is a very good QB. I'm ok with that. Shinny stats no win guy. If you post that our D is one of the most pitiful in our history it goes back to teams have won Super Bowls with worse defenses. I'm not even going to get into that one. Now some have pointed out that we are stacked at CB. Who cares about being stacked with young guys that are stilling trying to get up to their highest level, an old guy that has lost his most important physical skill for his game and other so so players like Mac. That's not stacked it's still a major concern in my mind especially when we need to beat out a future HOF QB just for the division title. Then we have the GOAT who is playing as well as ever. We need some ring of honor CBs. People will point out that Cousins CAP hit is killing our team and he should take less but he don't care. Hunter wants more and didn't even contribute last year and maybe this year also. That's up in the air. He don't care either. Zim will improve our D because he has a proven track record and seems pissed that his D was a laughing stock. He's basically pouring whip cream over horse crap at this point. We will go from a joke to average. That won't do it for the show with what we have to face. And when we do crash the lose will go to Cousins because that's part of his positional stat. Our D could turn it around at the end and get hot like the Bucs D did. They made Brees, Rodgers and Mahomes look less than average. That's a huge task. Not many HCs in the history of the NFL has built a D that could play like that for a short stretch. Zim had his chance but let Foles pick apart his D. I'd like to see us get Jones in the draft. That will never happen. But at least we don't have Keenum or some other bum now. Next step will be a DE or OL selection in the draft. That's the logical choice. QB won't enter the thought process until round 4 at the earliest. Too late at that point.
One other knock on Cousins is no mobility. The experts point out that you will never get to the Super Bowl unless you have a mobile QB. IMO just look at the QBs that have took an NFC team to the Super Bowl over the last x number of years. Two examples are Goff and Grap. Mobility is the last thing that comes to my mind with those two. Wilson is mobile and a Super Bowl winner which the legion of boom helped also. It looks like Bill B has bought into the hype and has made Newton his leader. Should be easy. It won't happen with that mobile guy because he can't pass with accuracy. Bill B knows this but he needs a body to take the snap. He had nothing in the hole. But that's every team in the NFL. Except maybe the Saints. They get their chance this year to prove it. Mahomes is mobile but if that idiot OC they have keeps banging him in there on 3rd and 1 the concussion will happen again. You only get so many of them. Steve Young the best mobile all around winner guy found that out the hard way. This is nothing new. It's been out there forever. But it's a talking point now and some expert wants the hit.
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Re: The Zimmer Principle

Post by StumpHunter » Sun Apr 04, 2021 9:10 am

Pondering Her Percy wrote:
Sat Apr 03, 2021 12:35 am
VikingLord wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 11:59 pm


He might just be unlucky. That is all your stat shows IMHO.
Not only does Stumps stats show that, but situations like I explained above prove that even further.....
Those are situations that happen to EVERY QB. Every. One.

I can't believe I need to say this, but if a QB is successful at the end of games, the team is more likely to win. Russel Wilson doesn't win in those spots more because he is lucky, that is absurd. Just like Sam Darnold isn't losing in those spots because he is unlucky. One wins because he is an elite QB who is one of the best in the history of the game at bringing his team back, the other loses because he throws more picks when down a score than any QB in football.

However, I will humor the premise that Cousins is just unlucky and provide the evidence that statement is 100% false.

I have already provided the stats for Cousins in losses where the team had been up at least one 1 point, he was 3-6, and threw 27 yards in those 4 games. Completely ineffective.

In losses where the team was down a score or less, in the 4th:
18th in passer rating at 73.7
25th in YPA at 5.9
3rd highest turnover percentage per play of any QB.

He isn't unlucky, he just struggles to move the ball downfield and turns the ball over too much in that spot.

Deshaun Watson on the other hand? He is incredibly "unlucky".
Watson:
1st in passer rating at 126.3
1st in YPA at 10.5
7 tds, 1 int on 91 attempts in that spot.

The biggest reason Cousins struggles to win games when down in the 4th is because he isn't very good in that spot. Not the defense that gave up 2 TDs total in 3 seasons in that spot, 8th fewest in the NFL.
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Re: The Zimmer Principle

Post by CharVike » Sun Apr 04, 2021 6:54 pm

StumpHunter wrote:
Sun Apr 04, 2021 9:10 am
Pondering Her Percy wrote:
Sat Apr 03, 2021 12:35 am


Not only does Stumps stats show that, but situations like I explained above prove that even further.....
Those are situations that happen to EVERY QB. Every. One.

I can't believe I need to say this, but if a QB is successful at the end of games, the team is more likely to win. Russel Wilson doesn't win in those spots more because he is lucky, that is absurd. Just like Sam Darnold isn't losing in those spots because he is unlucky. One wins because he is an elite QB who is one of the best in the history of the game at bringing his team back, the other loses because he throws more picks when down a score than any QB in football.

However, I will humor the premise that Cousins is just unlucky and provide the evidence that statement is 100% false.

I have already provided the stats for Cousins in losses where the team had been up at least one 1 point, he was 3-6, and threw 27 yards in those 4 games. Completely ineffective.

In losses where the team was down a score or less, in the 4th:
18th in passer rating at 73.7
25th in YPA at 5.9
3rd highest turnover percentage per play of any QB.

He isn't unlucky, he just struggles to move the ball downfield and turns the ball over too much in that spot.

Deshaun Watson on the other hand? He is incredibly "unlucky".
Watson:
1st in passer rating at 126.3
1st in YPA at 10.5
7 tds, 1 int on 91 attempts in that spot.

The biggest reason Cousins struggles to win games when down in the 4th is because he isn't very good in that spot. Not the defense that gave up 2 TDs total in 3 seasons in that spot, 8th fewest in the NFL.
I think Watson lead his team to a 4-12 record. Call it whatever you want. He let Cousins beat him in his own back yard. That was the battle of the losers. He put up 7 points against the Bears. Little too much D. Packers shut him out the 1st half. He scored some mop up 4th quarter TDs. Bottom line comparing players that play different schedules has many holes. I don't think our D gave up to many TDs in the finale 5 seconds of a game. Means nothing. Bottom line our D was a train wreck. I don't see how that helps a team or QB win.
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Re: The Zimmer Principle

Post by VikingLord » Mon Apr 05, 2021 2:59 pm

StumpHunter wrote:
Sun Apr 04, 2021 9:10 am
I can't believe I need to say this, but if a QB is successful at the end of games, the team is more likely to win.
"More likely" does not equal "will".
StumpHunter wrote:
Sun Apr 04, 2021 9:10 am
Russel Wilson doesn't win in those spots more because he is lucky, that is absurd.
So in the game where the Seahawks beat the Vikings on that last desperation drive, Russell Wilson wasn't more fortunate than Kirk Cousins? He didn't need the Seahawk defense to turn the ball over on downs on that 4th down play, or conversely need the Vikings to screw up picking up less than a yard to seal the game?
StumpHunter wrote:
Sun Apr 04, 2021 9:10 am
I have already provided the stats for Cousins in losses where the team had been up at least one 1 point, he was 3-6, and threw 27 yards in those 4 games. Completely ineffective.
"He" lost those games though? Or the team he was on lost them?

Maybe he only threw for 27 yards in those games because just like in the game against Seattle his team didn't need him to throw to win. The stats alone don't show the context. They are one view of a more complex picture but you claim they are the picture.

I just don't buy it.
StumpHunter wrote:
Sun Apr 04, 2021 9:10 am
The biggest reason Cousins struggles to win games when down in the 4th is because he isn't very good in that spot. Not the defense that gave up 2 TDs total in 3 seasons in that spot, 8th fewest in the NFL.
Most QBs struggle to win games when down in the 4th. There are few QBs who make a habit out of putting themselves and their teams behind heading into the 4th quarter and then routinely wake up at that point and bring them back. Generally speaking, if a particular player on a team, QB or otherwise, is consistently on the losing side late in a game, they're probably not playing all that great to begin with. If heroics are routinely required late in games, that team probably isn't all that good to begin with.

Cousins isn't the best QB in the NFL. I doubt you'll find anyone who will argue otherwise.

But he's good enough for the Vikings to win. What he needs, and what they need, and what we fans all want, is for the Vikings as a team to be good enough where no single player needs to be the hero all season for them to win enough games to not only make the playoffs, but make a deep run in the playoffs. Trust me on this - if the team around Cousins is good enough, they'll win. You might claim they'll win in spite of Cousins, which is fine if that is how you want to see it, but they'll win all the same.
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Re: The Zimmer Principle

Post by chicagopurple » Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:38 pm

which means we need an entire new OL....no one on that squad will ever contribute to a super bowl
which means we need a far better defense across the board....
which means we need a coaching staff that is not lost in the past, rigid and unable to make adjustments on the fly, and able to control the locker room.....
so, yeah, QB is not our only issue.....but he is an economic dead-weight preventing some of the above needs and our GM has a track record for a decade of being blind and unable to address the OL in ANY way.....so, expect another year of mediocrity....yawn..... :confused:
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Re: The Zimmer Principle

Post by StumpHunter » Mon Apr 05, 2021 4:11 pm

VikingLord wrote:
Mon Apr 05, 2021 2:59 pm

Most QBs struggle to win games when down in the 4th. There are few QBs who make a habit out of putting themselves and their teams behind heading into the 4th quarter and then routinely wake up at that point and bring them back. Generally speaking, if a particular player on a team, QB or otherwise, is consistently on the losing side late in a game, they're probably not playing all that great to begin with. If heroics are routinely required late in games, that team probably isn't all that good to begin with.
I have posted the percentage of games Cousins wins when down a score or less in the 4th and how it compares to other QBs. I have posted the numbers that lead to him being one of the worst QBs in that spot in the NFL. He is a bad QB compared to the rest of the NFL in the 4th when down a score. It isn't debatable and it is a big reason he is a .500 QB. Posting cherry picked games instead of looking at the entirety of his career as a Viking doesn't change that.

VikingLord wrote:
Mon Apr 05, 2021 2:59 pm
Cousins isn't the best QB in the NFL. I doubt you'll find anyone who will argue otherwise.

But he's good enough for the Vikings to win. What he needs, and what they need, and what we fans all want, is for the Vikings as a team to be good enough where no single player needs to be the hero all season for them to win enough games to not only make the playoffs, but make a deep run in the playoffs. Trust me on this - if the team around Cousins is good enough, they'll win. You might claim they'll win in spite of Cousins, which is fine if that is how you want to see it, but they'll win all the same.
I am tired of going around and around on this. You are content with a QB everything needs to be perfect for for us to win, I am not. I don't see a path to the SB with that type of QB play and the limited roster his salary gives us, you do.
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Re: The Zimmer Principle

Post by VikingLord » Tue Apr 06, 2021 4:39 pm

StumpHunter wrote:
Mon Apr 05, 2021 4:11 pm
I have posted the percentage of games Cousins wins when down a score or less in the 4th and how it compares to other QBs. I have posted the numbers that lead to him being one of the worst QBs in that spot in the NFL. He is a bad QB compared to the rest of the NFL in the 4th when down a score. It isn't debatable and it is a big reason he is a .500 QB. Posting cherry picked games instead of looking at the entirety of his career as a Viking doesn't change that.
Those stats alone don't tell the whole story. My "cherry-picked" game demonstrates that.

You extend a general result to a specific player and use that as a basis to make a specific claim about that player. I don't think you can do that without more specifics about that player's actual contribution to the result.
StumpHunter wrote:
Mon Apr 05, 2021 4:11 pm
I am tired of going around and around on this. You are content with a QB everything needs to be perfect for for us to win, I am not. I don't see a path to the SB with that type of QB play and the limited roster his salary gives us, you do.
The strange part of this discussion for me is you seem to think I'm somehow defending Cousins or claiming the Vikings shouldn't try to improve the QB position when I'm not doing that. Cousins has his issues and the team should always try to put the best players on the field at every position every season. If the right QB is available in this upcoming draft when #14 rolls around, I wouldn't say Spielman should pass on him because the Vikings have Cousins already.

My point in this thread is simple fairness to individual players. In a team sport, some individual players are going to be more associated with certain outcomes (winning or losing) when they weren't primary factors in the results (witness just about every receiver who has ever played with Tom Brady, for example). That happens all the time with free agents too and one of the reasons signing free agents is so risky. Some of them look better than they really are based on the success of their prior teams and not because they individually made the difference. This factor is one of the things that makes a QB like Mac Jones more risky in this upcoming draft too. Is Jones really that good, or was he just the QB of a stacked team?

Cousins might not be all that great late in close games, but to prove that to me I'd need to see specifics about what he did to lose those close games.
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Re: The Zimmer Principle

Post by Pondering Her Percy » Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:04 pm

VikingLord wrote:
Tue Apr 06, 2021 4:39 pm
StumpHunter wrote:
Mon Apr 05, 2021 4:11 pm
I have posted the percentage of games Cousins wins when down a score or less in the 4th and how it compares to other QBs. I have posted the numbers that lead to him being one of the worst QBs in that spot in the NFL. He is a bad QB compared to the rest of the NFL in the 4th when down a score. It isn't debatable and it is a big reason he is a .500 QB. Posting cherry picked games instead of looking at the entirety of his career as a Viking doesn't change that.
Those stats alone don't tell the whole story. My "cherry-picked" game demonstrates that.

You extend a general result to a specific player and use that as a basis to make a specific claim about that player. I don't think you can do that without more specifics about that player's actual contribution to the result.
StumpHunter wrote:
Mon Apr 05, 2021 4:11 pm
I am tired of going around and around on this. You are content with a QB everything needs to be perfect for for us to win, I am not. I don't see a path to the SB with that type of QB play and the limited roster his salary gives us, you do.
The strange part of this discussion for me is you seem to think I'm somehow defending Cousins or claiming the Vikings shouldn't try to improve the QB position when I'm not doing that. Cousins has his issues and the team should always try to put the best players on the field at every position every season. If the right QB is available in this upcoming draft when #14 rolls around, I wouldn't say Spielman should pass on him because the Vikings have Cousins already.

My point in this thread is simple fairness to individual players. In a team sport, some individual players are going to be more associated with certain outcomes (winning or losing) when they weren't primary factors in the results (witness just about every receiver who has ever played with Tom Brady, for example). That happens all the time with free agents too and one of the reasons signing free agents is so risky. Some of them look better than they really are based on the success of their prior teams and not because they individually made the difference. This factor is one of the things that makes a QB like Mac Jones more risky in this upcoming draft too. Is Jones really that good, or was he just the QB of a stacked team?

Cousins might not be all that great late in close games, but to prove that to me I'd need to see specifics about what he did to lose those close games.
Exactly. I've provided reasons why others failed Cousins in specific games. Mattison vs. Seattle, Bradbury vs. Tennessee, Bailey vs. Tampa, etc.

How did COUSINS himself lose us those games?

-Cousins didnt have to throw vs. Seattle in the end of that game. Mattison needed to run for 1 single yard and couldnt.

-Bradbury's snap on the final drive vs. Tennessee put us at a 3rd and 26. It was a SIXTEEN yard loss. So what...we're saying Cousins cant get it done late in the game because he couldnt convert a 3rd and 26 when the defense is sitting in prevent? No less he nearly converted the hail mary on 4th down.

-Cousins didnt have his best game vs. Tampa but again, Bailey left 9 points off the board. A good portion of this game the score was 23-14. That's a tie game if we have a kicker that could convert. Even if he missed one it's still a 3 point game against the SB champs

Not saying things have to go perfect for him to win but hell, those are GAME BREAKING mistakes by guys not named Kirk Cousins.
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