Vikings have #14 pick

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Mothman
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Re: Vikings have #14 pick

Post by Mothman » Mon Jan 04, 2021 5:19 pm

J. Kapp 11 wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:12 pm
One thing we all need to remember is that the 2021 draft is going to be one of the most challenging in history.

There will be a decided lack of tape on college players. Many played only a handful of games. Others opted out altogether. Scouts couldn't travel to see players live. There's no guarantee there will even be a combine, even though that's become sort of a joke.

Trust me, this is not a built-in excuse for Rick Spielman and Mike Zimmer. I've stated on here more than once that I'm ready to move on from these guys. However, I think the reality is that it's not going to happen. The Wilfs value continuity above all else, even over winning, it seems. So for better or worse, we're stuck with these two.

I'm just suggesting we all go into this year's draft with open eyes and tempered enthusiasm. We absolutely struck gold with Justin Jefferson last year, and it would be easy for us to get spoiled. On the surface, it seems a team like Jacksonville, with two firsts, two seconds and a third, are sitting pretty. But I would suggest that draft busts are going to be a higher probability this year than almost any other year. Teams are going to have to be really creative and really thorough when it comes to due diligence on these guys.

Here's hoping the Vikings can hit on whomever they select.
Good post. I think these circumstances will make graduating seniors (or at least players with 2+ years of starting experience) much more appealing to NFL teams. Their pre-2020 body of work may be a little more valuable as an evaluation tool than in years past.
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Re: Vikings have #14 pick

Post by Angels Wings » Fri Jan 08, 2021 5:48 am

Trade the pick and two future firsts and two 2nds for DeShawn Watson :confused:
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Re: Vikings have #14 pick

Post by psjordan » Fri Jan 08, 2021 10:59 am

Angels Wings wrote:
Fri Jan 08, 2021 5:48 am
Trade the pick and two future firsts and two 2nds for DeShawn Watson :confused:
Forgetting contracts (which make the above virtually impossible) and just looking at performance, that's a LOT of capital to move up about 8 QBR points and gain 7 years in age. The rough equivalent performance-wise would be the Texans giving three #1's and two #2's to go get Ryan Tannehill. Maybe when O'Brien was there he'd go for it.

If we think we are stuck with Cousins short term, take a look at the dead cap hits for Watson. Yikes. He will stay a Texan short term no matter how unhappy he is.
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Re: Vikings have #14 pick

Post by cmoss84 » Fri Jan 08, 2021 11:24 am

psjordan wrote:
Fri Jan 08, 2021 10:59 am
Angels Wings wrote:
Fri Jan 08, 2021 5:48 am
Trade the pick and two future firsts and two 2nds for DeShawn Watson :confused:
Forgetting contracts (which make the above virtually impossible) and just looking at performance, that's a LOT of capital to move up about 8 QBR points and gain 7 years in age. The rough equivalent performance-wise would be the Texans giving three #1's and two #2's to go get Ryan Tannehill. Maybe when O'Brien was there he'd go for it.

If we think we are stuck with Cousins short term, take a look at the dead cap hits for Watson. Yikes. He will stay a Texan short term no matter how unhappy he is.
I posted this in another thread last night, but I proposed dealing Cousins and Reiff or Barr for Watson...
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Re: Vikings have #14 pick

Post by psjordan » Fri Jan 08, 2021 12:12 pm

2021 is a BIG year for Cousins and his potential future contracts, here or elsewhere. Wonder how upset he'd get if we draft a QB at #14? Or if at some point we move up to pick one? Not really our nature with Rick at the wheel, but would Cousins respond well or crumble with pressure in 2021?

If the Jets have ANY inkling that Darnold is not their guy, and they really like Wilson or Fields, they can't trade down below ATL at #4. And DET at #7 has to be considering a QB (not sure why several mocks have Fields falling to us or the Pats at #15).

What if the Jets take Wilson or Fields with the #2 (ATL takes the other at #4) and we trade the Jets the #14 and Harris for Darnold and S Ashtyn Davis? I suppose DET could always offer a better deal if they are sold on Darnold. I kinda like him but I know he has his detractors.

I assume it would take more than we care to offer to get to MIA's #3 in first round.

Anyways Rick not being able to move up to get JJ last year makes me think he's VERY conservative in giving up anything over "book value" to move up, so all the above is likely moot.
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Re: Vikings have #14 pick

Post by YikesVikes » Fri Jan 08, 2021 3:22 pm

The amazing stat that sums up this FOs ineptitude is the number of LSU and Alabama players we’ve drafted in the last 20 years. I think we are at 4 with 2 drafted in the top 3 rounds. The most dominate run in NCAA football and we have drafted a late round OL and a TE in about 17 years of drafts.
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Re: Vikings have #14 pick

Post by S197 » Fri Jan 08, 2021 3:56 pm

psjordan wrote:
Fri Jan 08, 2021 12:12 pm
2021 is a BIG year for Cousins and his potential future contracts, here or elsewhere. Wonder how upset he'd get if we draft a QB at #14? Or if at some point we move up to pick one? Not really our nature with Rick at the wheel, but would Cousins respond well or crumble with pressure in 2021?

If the Jets have ANY inkling that Darnold is not their guy, and they really like Wilson or Fields, they can't trade down below ATL at #4. And DET at #7 has to be considering a QB (not sure why several mocks have Fields falling to us or the Pats at #15).

What if the Jets take Wilson or Fields with the #2 (ATL takes the other at #4) and we trade the Jets the #14 and Harris for Darnold and S Ashtyn Davis? I suppose DET could always offer a better deal if they are sold on Darnold. I kinda like him but I know he has his detractors.

I assume it would take more than we care to offer to get to MIA's #3 in first round.

Anyways Rick not being able to move up to get JJ last year makes me think he's VERY conservative in giving up anything over "book value" to move up, so all the above is likely moot.
Rick is tied to Cousins' success. Even if we ignore the fact that Rick simply doesn't draft QB's when he has a starter, it doesn't make sense even if the extremely improbable event happens like a Fields at #14. He's not keeping his job if he drafts a 1st round QB and pays Cousins $45M to be a backup. That is an admission of colossal failure. And he backed himself into such a tight corner, there's no way out of it. Keep in mind that even though that $45M is due in 2022, it becomes fully guaranteed BEFORE next season. Cousins could potentially never take another snap in the NFL and cost this team $75M. They are all-in on him.
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Re: Vikings have #14 pick

Post by Angels Wings » Fri Jan 08, 2021 5:43 pm

psjordan wrote:
Fri Jan 08, 2021 10:59 am
Angels Wings wrote:
Fri Jan 08, 2021 5:48 am
Trade the pick and two future firsts and two 2nds for DeShawn Watson :confused:
Forgetting contracts (which make the above virtually impossible) and just looking at performance, that's a LOT of capital to move up about 8 QBR points and gain 7 years in age. The rough equivalent performance-wise would be the Texans giving three #1's and two #2's to go get Ryan Tannehill. Maybe when O'Brien was there he'd go for it.

If we think we are stuck with Cousins short term, take a look at the dead cap hits for Watson. Yikes. He will stay a Texan short term no matter how unhappy he is.
Hey, a guy can dream, can he? I know that it's a lot to give up but Watson with what the Vikings have on offense would be killer.

In any case, I would think that the Vikings go defense(corner) or O-Line at 14. We need help at both.
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Re: Vikings have #14 pick

Post by StumpHunter » Fri Jan 08, 2021 7:54 pm

psjordan wrote:
Fri Jan 08, 2021 10:59 am
Angels Wings wrote:
Fri Jan 08, 2021 5:48 am
Trade the pick and two future firsts and two 2nds for DeShawn Watson :confused:
Forgetting contracts (which make the above virtually impossible) and just looking at performance, that's a LOT of capital to move up about 8 QBR points and gain 7 years in age. The rough equivalent performance-wise would be the Texans giving three #1's and two #2's to go get Ryan Tannehill. Maybe when O'Brien was there he'd go for it.

If we think we are stuck with Cousins short term, take a look at the dead cap hits for Watson. Yikes. He will stay a Texan short term no matter how unhappy he is.
The dead cap hit is only bad for Watson if he is cut, if he is traded it is similar to if we traded Cousins.

If a team traded for him they would be getting a top 3 QB for roughly 26 million per year over 5 years. A steal.

The vikings would need to give up 3 first to get him, worth it for a long term answer at QB on a reasonable contract. Would you give up Waynes, Treadwell, Hughes and Bradbury for Watson? I know I would, and those are 4 of the last 6 Spielman 1st rounders picks. Heck, as much as I like JJ I would consder giving up all 6 of Rick's most recent 1st rounders for Watson.
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Re: Vikings have #14 pick

Post by RandyMoss84 » Fri Jan 08, 2021 8:57 pm

StumpHunter wrote:
Fri Jan 08, 2021 7:54 pm
psjordan wrote:
Fri Jan 08, 2021 10:59 am

Forgetting contracts (which make the above virtually impossible) and just looking at performance, that's a LOT of capital to move up about 8 QBR points and gain 7 years in age. The rough equivalent performance-wise would be the Texans giving three #1's and two #2's to go get Ryan Tannehill. Maybe when O'Brien was there he'd go for it.

If we think we are stuck with Cousins short term, take a look at the dead cap hits for Watson. Yikes. He will stay a Texan short term no matter how unhappy he is.
The dead cap hit is only bad for Watson if he is cut, if he is traded it is similar to if we traded Cousins.

If a team traded for him they would be getting a top 3 QB for roughly 26 million per year over 5 years. A steal.

The vikings would need to give up 3 first to get him, worth it for a long term answer at QB on a reasonable contract. Would you give up Waynes, Treadwell, Hughes and Bradbury for Watson? I know I would, and those are 4 of the last 6 Spielman 1st rounders picks. Heck, as much as I like JJ I would consder giving up all 6 of Rick's most recent 1st rounders for Watson.
Only player I would do that is for Mahomes
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Re: Vikings have #14 pick

Post by Mr.MinnesotaViking » Sat Jan 09, 2021 1:46 pm

That ruffing the passer call on Detroit screwed the Vikings out four spots!
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Re: Vikings have #14 pick

Post by CharVike » Sat Jan 09, 2021 3:50 pm

psjordan wrote:
Fri Jan 08, 2021 12:12 pm
2021 is a BIG year for Cousins and his potential future contracts, here or elsewhere. Wonder how upset he'd get if we draft a QB at #14? Or if at some point we move up to pick one? Not really our nature with Rick at the wheel, but would Cousins respond well or crumble with pressure in 2021?

If the Jets have ANY inkling that Darnold is not their guy, and they really like Wilson or Fields, they can't trade down below ATL at #4. And DET at #7 has to be considering a QB (not sure why several mocks have Fields falling to us or the Pats at #15).

What if the Jets take Wilson or Fields with the #2 (ATL takes the other at #4) and we trade the Jets the #14 and Harris for Darnold and S Ashtyn Davis? I suppose DET could always offer a better deal if they are sold on Darnold. I kinda like him but I know he has his detractors.

I assume it would take more than we care to offer to get to MIA's #3 in first round.

Anyways Rick not being able to move up to get JJ last year makes me think he's VERY conservative in giving up anything over "book value" to move up, so all the above is likely moot.
Cousin's is a professional QB. He has faced competition every step of the way. He had to compete against a high 1st round pick in Washington. I'm sure he can deal with it.He's handles it so far. Fields is a guy I wouldn't touch. He was beat out in college and instead of competing and winning the job he bailed out or transferred is a nicer term. He doesn't handle pressure very well at all. Becomes a turnover guy when the heat is turned up. That's why he's all over the mock drafts. The only QB I would take at 14 is Lawrence. He won't slide that far especially with the rest of this unimpressive class.
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Re: Vikings have #14 pick

Post by psjordan » Sun Jan 10, 2021 9:00 am

StumpHunter wrote:
Fri Jan 08, 2021 7:54 pm
psjordan wrote:
Fri Jan 08, 2021 10:59 am

Forgetting contracts (which make the above virtually impossible) and just looking at performance, that's a LOT of capital to move up about 8 QBR points and gain 7 years in age. The rough equivalent performance-wise would be the Texans giving three #1's and two #2's to go get Ryan Tannehill. Maybe when O'Brien was there he'd go for it.

If we think we are stuck with Cousins short term, take a look at the dead cap hits for Watson. Yikes. He will stay a Texan short term no matter how unhappy he is.
The dead cap hit is only bad for Watson if he is cut, if he is traded it is similar to if we traded Cousins.

If a team traded for him they would be getting a top 3 QB for roughly 26 million per year over 5 years. A steal.

The vikings would need to give up 3 first to get him, worth it for a long term answer at QB on a reasonable contract. Would you give up Waynes, Treadwell, Hughes and Bradbury for Watson? I know I would, and those are 4 of the last 6 Spielman 1st rounders picks. Heck, as much as I like JJ I would consder giving up all 6 of Rick's most recent 1st rounders for Watson.
Dead cap is dead cap, the only way to minimize it is to use the June 1 date and amortize it over two years. AND you can only use the June 1 designation on two players. Watson's dead cap is $67M next year, the Texans will not be eating that off their cap, even if it's amortized over two years. Same reason Kirk is just about un-tradeable.

Watson's contract was for four years, last two optional. Everyone assumes he will be renegotiated in 2025 no matter what team he is on.

"If a team traded for him they would be getting a top 3 QB for roughly 26 million per year over 5 years." Will simply never, ever happen. And the "top 3" designation is easily debatable.

Here's where an agent thinks Watson's contract will go. If you don't want to read the Mahomes contract comparison, skip down to the last line:
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agen ... -megadeal/
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Re: Vikings have #14 pick

Post by Foreman44 » Sun Jan 10, 2021 4:40 pm

Not a trash fan here. Rather have Mac Jones, not sure either one in top 15,

My guess is a couple will drop low. Like Bridgewater late, Last year Georgias QB dropped to the 4th. Personally I am for finding a young qb...

One who can sit behind cousins. Learn. Not a 7th rounder or or an undrafted free agent. They need to go QB every year til they find there man and after, the cost if starting QBs... I am waiting to see how long Mahiome’s contract kills K.C.
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Re: Vikings have #14 pick

Post by Husker Vike » Sun Jan 10, 2021 8:14 pm

If Zimmer has his way, if Patrick Surtain ll is there at #14 he will be the pick.
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