Let's play "Manage the Cap — 2021"

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Re: Let's play "Manage the Cap — 2021"

Post by VikingLord » Sun Dec 27, 2020 10:03 pm

psjordan wrote:
Sun Dec 27, 2020 2:27 pm

But literally almost everyone is tired of 8-8 meaningless seasons, and almost everyone recognizes that a few 2-14 seasons may do this franchise a world of good. I am certainly in favor of it.
Actually, I think everyone other than our division rivals is tired of it.

I just hope the Wilfs don't make things worse or just different. If they make a move and end up hiring the next Brad Childress, that would not be an improvement.
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Re: Let's play "Manage the Cap — 2021"

Post by psjordan » Mon Dec 28, 2020 8:27 am

VikingLord wrote:
Sun Dec 27, 2020 10:03 pm
I just hope the Wilfs don't make things worse or just different. If they make a move and end up hiring the next Brad Childress, that would not be an improvement.
Well yes, that's what we all hope for. I think one, two or three blasé seasons and the prospect of change gets drowned out by the "it could be worse" sentiment.

After what, umpteen years of mostly blasé seasons (exceptions duly noted), with the most recent 7-8 being about as mediocre/soul-crushing as a hopeful team can get, well, the "it could be worse" sentiment is no more than a whisper in the desert at this point.

Like I've said in other threads, I'm even OK with a whiff or two at coaching staff or GM.

Just get me the heck off this half-speed merry-go-round, I'm constantly nauseous.
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Re: Let's play "Manage the Cap — 2021"

Post by StumpHunter » Mon Dec 28, 2020 12:40 pm

psjordan wrote:
Mon Dec 28, 2020 8:27 am
VikingLord wrote:
Sun Dec 27, 2020 10:03 pm
I just hope the Wilfs don't make things worse or just different. If they make a move and end up hiring the next Brad Childress, that would not be an improvement.
Well yes, that's what we all hope for. I think one, two or three blasé seasons and the prospect of change gets drowned out by the "it could be worse" sentiment.

After what, umpteen years of mostly blasé seasons (exceptions duly noted), with the most recent 7-8 being about as mediocre/soul-crushing as a hopeful team can get, well, the "it could be worse" sentiment is no more than a whisper in the desert at this point.

Like I've said in other threads, I'm even OK with a whiff or two at coaching staff or GM.

Just get me the heck off this half-speed merry-go-round, I'm constantly nauseous.
This. It could be worse, but it could also be a lot better. Give me the chance at better with risk of worse every time. How much more fun was the 2006 season than this one? We stunk, but there was hope that a new HC and new quasi GM could make the team better. The same with 2014.

A new GM and new HC might be worse than the current ones or they might be just as good. OR they might just better and be the combination we need to get us a SB ring. How are there still fans that don't want a shot at that?
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Re: Let's play "Manage the Cap — 2021"

Post by VikingLord » Mon Dec 28, 2020 1:41 pm

psjordan wrote:
Mon Dec 28, 2020 8:27 am
Just get me the heck off this half-speed merry-go-round, I'm constantly nauseous.
The only way off is to stop following the team, because any change that is made is likely to result in the same outcome as what we're seeing right now.

That isn't saying it is sure to produce that outcome - just that the odds favor it, with some smaller chance that it will get worse than it has been and an equally smaller chance it will get better.

But, as Jim Carrey's character in Dumb and Dumber famously said - "So you're telling me there's a chance...", yes, chucking Spielman and Zimmer does mean you get someone different, and sometimes someone different is cause for optimism.

I just don't think it is going to happen. I think the Wilfs will stay the course, at least for one more season.
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Re: Let's play "Manage the Cap — 2021"

Post by Mothman » Mon Dec 28, 2020 1:48 pm

VikingLord wrote:
Sun Dec 27, 2020 9:59 pm
As always Jim, you make excellent points.
Thank you, I appreciate that.
I totally understand where you are coming from, and I agree the argument for a change is justified at this point.

My hope is that if the Wilfs make that change they make it better and not just different or worse. In some ways this all circles back to them and their decisions which led to the current GM and head coach and the situation the team finds itself in as a result. What confidence do you have in them to make better choices if they do decide to move on from Spielman and Childress this offseason?

Also, when do you expect they will announce those moves if they do decide to make a change?
My confidence in them making a better choice isn't high but I think they have a reasonable shot at choosing an upgrade. I'd be surprised if they made a really poor choice.

If they make a move, I think it will happen fast, with Zimmer being fired within 24 hours of the final game. I doubt that's going to happen after this season but who knows? The 2020 defense is allowing points and yardage on a pace pretty close to the 2013 defense and that was the end of Leslie Frazier in MN. However, I think Frazier was already on the bubble when that season began and the Wilfs have shown FAR more patience with Zimmer than with previous coaches.
I would hope it happens soon after the last game if it happens. They need to get that GM in place and he will have his work cut out for him to both find a head coach as well as start preparing for the draft and what hopefully will be a normal offseason.
If they decide to replace Spielman, it's essential that they move fast.
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Re: Let's play "Manage the Cap — 2021"

Post by VikingLord » Mon Dec 28, 2020 1:51 pm

StumpHunter wrote:
Mon Dec 28, 2020 12:40 pm
A new GM and new HC might be worse than the current ones or they might be just as good. OR they might just better and be the combination we need to get us a SB ring. How are there still fans that don't want a shot at that?
The strongest argument should be made around results. When a GM or head coach receives a contract, there should be expectations built into what the owners want to see happening when those contracts are up for extension. It is similar to drafting a player. A 1st round pick gets a 4 year contract, for example. Well, what does the team need to see from that player heading into that 4th year for them to want to extend him? If he's a running back, I'm sure they want to see him leading the team in rushing and maybe competing for the league lead in rushing. If he's a WR, he should be putting up big numbers by that point in his career. Same goes for other players at other positions. If the expected production isn't there to match the team's initial evaluation when the player was signed or extended, it is time to move on and look for someone else.

Same principle should apply for GMs and head coaches. The team should be enjoying some objective success. Ideally, competing for Superbowls, but if not, at least competing for Division championships and overall being competitive. To the extent that is or isn't happening, the ownership should act accordingly.

The Wilfs aren't going to move on from Spielman and Zimmer this offseason. At least, I don't think so. They extended both last year and both have enough things to point to as reasons to stay the course heading into next year that I think the Wilfs will not make a move to change things up at that level.

Now if we're having this conversation at this point next year, both Spielman and Zimmer will be gone. Of that, I have no doubt.
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Re: Let's play "Manage the Cap — 2021"

Post by Mothman » Mon Dec 28, 2020 1:52 pm

VikingLord wrote:
Mon Dec 28, 2020 1:41 pm
The only way off is to stop following the team, because any change that is made is likely to result in the same outcome as what we're seeing right now.

That isn't saying it is sure to produce that outcome - just that the odds favor it, with some smaller chance that it will get worse than it has been and an equally smaller chance it will get better.

But, as Jim Carrey's character in Dumb and Dumber famously said - "So you're telling me there's a chance...", yes, chucking Spielman and Zimmer does mean you get someone different, and sometimes someone different is cause for optimism.

I just don't think it is going to happen. I think the Wilfs will stay the course, at least for one more season.
It seems likely. Sigh.

If they do and the pattern holds, the Vikes will probably make the playoffs as a wild card in 2021 and make a quick exit, which will earn Zimmer and Spielman yet another year...
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Re: Let's play "Manage the Cap — 2021"

Post by VikingLord » Mon Dec 28, 2020 2:01 pm

Mothman wrote:
Mon Dec 28, 2020 1:52 pm
If they do and the pattern holds, the Vikes will probably make the playoffs as a wild card in 2021 and make a quick exit, which will earn Zimmer and Spielman yet another year...
Odds are that would be true even if they make a change.

I know there is a lot of negativity on the board right now and people are (justifiably) down on the team's prospects heading into next season.

All I'm going to point out is the team was playing pretty well before the defense was decimated by injuries. These last two losses have been ugly on the defensive side of the ball, but it's not like that is the Vikings defense we will see when next season begins. It really can't be that bad and likely will be much better assuming the team gets in a full offseason.

And on offense there is more cause for optimism than pessimism. The Vikings are loaded at the skill positions. Cousins isn't perfect, but he's capable of winning if he's put into a good situation, which he hasn't been many times this year. The OL is and will be the primary question mark heading into next season, but even there I'm optimistic.

Then there is special teams. Changes will be made there, and that can't really be worse than it was this year.

For me, when I look at this team I see a solid core and lots of reason to be optimistic they will emerge as strong contenders next season. Changing Spielman and Zimmer probably won't materially alter that, and it might be the spark that lights a fire and gets even more out of that core. I just don't think the Wilfs are going to do that. I think they will let it play out, and I think there is a chance the Vikings are competing for much more than just a quick playoff exit with nothing more than another solid draft and full offseason.
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Re: Let's play "Manage the Cap — 2021"

Post by Mothman » Mon Dec 28, 2020 2:35 pm

VikingLord wrote:
Mon Dec 28, 2020 2:01 pm
Odds are that would be true even if they make a change.
Yes, but there might at least be a reason to believe that was a stepping stone to better results rather than part of a repeating pattern in which the Vikes make the playoffs every other year and show little to encourage fans they're ever going to go further.
And on offense there is more cause for optimism than pessimism. The Vikings are loaded at the skill positions. Cousins isn't perfect, but he's capable of winning if he's put into a good situation, which he hasn't been many times this year. The OL is and will be the primary question mark heading into next season, but even there I'm optimistic.
Why? It's been one of the biggest question marks on the team for a decade and it's still a question mark going into next season? What could possibly give anybody confidence they're going to finally solve that problem?
For me, when I look at this team I see a solid core and lots of reason to be optimistic they will emerge as strong contenders next season. Changing Spielman and Zimmer probably won't materially alter that, and it might be the spark that lights a fire and gets even more out of that core. I just don't think the Wilfs are going to do that. I think they will let it play out, and I think there is a chance the Vikings are competing for much more than just a quick playoff exit with nothing more than another solid draft and full offseason.
I think that's where we part ways on Zimmer and Spielman. Under this management, I believe we've seen the best we can hope to see. Zimmer's teams, at their best, have a ceiling and I'm betting we saw the best team we're going to see from Zimmer in 2017.
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Re: Let's play "Manage the Cap — 2021"

Post by psjordan » Mon Dec 28, 2020 4:54 pm

VikingLord wrote:
Mon Dec 28, 2020 1:41 pm
The only way off is to stop following the team, because any change that is made is likely to result in the same outcome as what we're seeing right now.
I see several distinct and realistic possibilities other than "stop following the team" or "get used to mediocre".

I realize you are taking an optimistic view of the roster we have, and honestly if you told me the coaching staff has been replaced by a seemingly competent alternative, I might agree with you.

If Zimmer and staff stay however, our roster - even with all the "yeah but" players back in the fold - will continue to be Zimmed. And by that I mean absolute best best case make the NFCC and, as Emmitt would say, then "get blowed out".

My confidence in this coaching staff is entirely gone. I cannot think of one time in Zim's tenure except for the 5-6 days leading up to the PHI NFCC game where I thought, for even a fleeting instant, this coaching staff could get us to the SB.
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Re: Let's play "Manage the Cap — 2021"

Post by VikingLord » Mon Dec 28, 2020 5:06 pm

Mothman wrote:
Mon Dec 28, 2020 2:35 pm
Why? It's been one of the biggest question marks on the team for a decade and it's still a question mark going into next season? What could possibly give anybody confidence they're going to finally solve that problem?
Would you settle for optimism they are going to finally solve it?

:D
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Re: Let's play "Manage the Cap — 2021"

Post by VikingLord » Mon Dec 28, 2020 5:14 pm

psjordan wrote:
Mon Dec 28, 2020 4:54 pm
My confidence in this coaching staff is entirely gone. I cannot think of one time in Zim's tenure except for the 5-6 days leading up to the PHI NFCC game where I thought, for even a fleeting instant, this coaching staff could get us to the SB.
What about last year when they beat the Saints in the playoffs?

Look, I understand the negativity and dour outlook and the desire to blame Zimmer, but I just have to point out that the Vikings went into this offseason needing a full set of OTAs and training camp more than just about any other team in the NFL due to the wholesale changes that were made at CB in the secondary. Those young guys needed that time badly to have any chance of hitting the ground running and while you can blame Zimmer and Spielman for allowing the defensive secondary to be in that situation in the first place, you can't blame them for assuming they'd get that necessary time in the offseason. Along those lines, you can't blame Zimmer for losing his best defensive end and a core FA acquisition who was supposed to shore up the middle of the defensive line. You can't blame Zimmer for losing a key player on defense in Barr and then arguably his best defensive player in Kendricks later in the season just as the team was rounding the corner into contention. I also can't blame Zimmer for the weaknesses in the interior OL play save maybe he should have ditched Samia sooner. Likewise, it's hard to blame Zimmer for Dan Bailey's sudden severe case of the yips or the utter failure of the special teams, the bad calls that went against the Vikings in some key games, etc.

Yeah, the team took some steps backwards over these last two games with a decimated defense and some really questionable reffing didn't help, but generally I saw a team that continued to fight hard and improve despite having every excuse not to. Generally, when players don't quit on a coach, that says a lot about the coach.

My most basic point here is, be careful what you wish for. If Zimmer isn't the issue and he is replaced, while his replacement could make things better, the wrong guy could make things worse, too. Same goes for Spielman.
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Re: Let's play "Manage the Cap — 2021"

Post by StumpHunter » Mon Dec 28, 2020 5:22 pm

psjordan wrote:
Mon Dec 28, 2020 4:54 pm
VikingLord wrote:
Mon Dec 28, 2020 1:41 pm
The only way off is to stop following the team, because any change that is made is likely to result in the same outcome as what we're seeing right now.
I see several distinct and realistic possibilities other than "stop following the team" or "get used to mediocre".

I realize you are taking an optimistic view of the roster we have, and honestly if you told me the coaching staff has been replaced by a seemingly competent alternative, I might agree with you.

If Zimmer and staff stay however, our roster - even with all the "yeah but" players back in the fold - will continue to be Zimmed. And by that I mean absolute best best case make the NFCC and, as Emmitt would say, then "get blowed out".

My confidence in this coaching staff is entirely gone. I cannot think of one time in Zim's tenure except for the 5-6 days leading up to the PHI NFCC game where I thought, for even a fleeting instant, this coaching staff could get us to the SB.
What coach could have won it all with the rosters provided Zimmer?

It takes great teams to win it all, not really good, great. 2017 was close to being great, but the Philly team they faced in the playoffs was much, much better overall. Not just because of coaching either.

Zimmer's time here has run its course, but I don't see a bunch of great rosters wasted by poor coaching since he joined the team. For the most part, the rosters provided Zimmer perform as good as you would expect them too imo. Not better outside of maybe 2015 and 2017, and not worse. Not good enough coaching, but not the only reason we haven't won it all. The rest of that reason falls on the talent put on the field not being good enough.
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Re: Let's play "Manage the Cap — 2021"

Post by Mothman » Mon Dec 28, 2020 5:39 pm

VikingLord wrote:
Mon Dec 28, 2020 5:06 pm
Mothman wrote:
Mon Dec 28, 2020 2:35 pm
Why? It's been one of the biggest question marks on the team for a decade and it's still a question mark going into next season? What could possibly give anybody confidence they're going to finally solve that problem?
Would you settle for optimism they are going to finally solve it?

:D
LOL! Sure, I'll take that. It's honest. :)
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Re: Let's play "Manage the Cap — 2021"

Post by Mothman » Mon Dec 28, 2020 5:46 pm

StumpHunter wrote:
Mon Dec 28, 2020 5:22 pm
What coach could have won it all with the rosters provided Zimmer?

It takes great teams to win it all, not really good, great. 2017 was close to being great, but the Philly team they faced in the playoffs was much, much better overall. Not just because of coaching either.

Zimmer's time here has run its course, but I don't see a bunch of great rosters wasted by poor coaching since he joined the team. For the most part, the rosters provided Zimmer perform as good as you would expect them too imo. Not better outside of maybe 2015 and 2017, and not worse. Not good enough coaching, but not the only reason we haven't won it all. The rest of that reason falls on the talent put on the field not being good enough.
Zimmer has something to do with that too. He's not simply provided rosters. He has significant input into those rosters.
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