QB development/support system by the NFL team is a huge factor. I don't care who you draft, where you draft them. If you don't have a great QB coach and QB room they aren't going to develop as expected. That's almost always a common thread with great QBs. They, the QB coach, the OC/HC (whoever calls plays) all function as one unit and think the same. It's as much mental as physical at the position. IMHO.
Who ran the QBs in 2017, the Keenum year? Stefanski and Shurmur.
As much as people want to say KC lucked into Mahomes. They also moved up to get him, so they identified something they wanted and went and got him. Don't rewrite history. This is something we almost never do as an organization. We move down.
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/new ... dzwew6ol9e
The Chiefs weren't the most obvious candidate to select a quarterback in 2017. They'd just gone 12-4 in 2016 with former No. 1 overall pick Alex Smith at quarterback. Andy Reid could count on a veteran, accurate QB like Smith to execute whatever fun or different offensive schemes he wanted to cook up.
Kansas City had identified Mahomes as the quarterback prospect it wanted to build around, though. That's what Clark Hunt told ESPN in 2019. Originally slated to pick 27th, Kansas City didn't feel that Mahomes would make it to that pick.
"We knew that we were interested in Patrick, and if the opportunity came along for us to trade up and get him, it was something that we wanted to do," Hunt told ESPN. "I would say that in a lot of ways, it made it more of a nervous first hour just watching the players come off the board."
The Chiefs had already been working to line up trades to move up before the draft began, and one of those deals set in place was with Buffalo, according to ESPN. When nine picks had gone by and Mahomes was still available, Kansas City made the move.
An example of they "just got lucky" is more comparable to Rick drafting AD. That was just dumb luck AD was still on the board, and yes Rick at least pulled the trigger. The Vikings made no effort to move up to grab the guy. They just get credit for being lucky and then drafting him when he fell, imho.
Ultimately there is no perfect formula for finding a franchise QB, as we can all point to numerous examples in the NFL. My BIGGEST complaint (which I've ranted about this year on these boards, heh) about this front office is their inability to identify who they are, what they need, and what to target. QB position screams to me as one of the biggest examples. You want a game manager or a gun slinger? Do you want someone dependent on Play Action schemes? Are you going to pay top dollar to a QB that can win a game on their arm alone? Or do you need to build up other parts of your offense for your QB to consistently play to their potential? They don't know, or have failed to execute their vision, imho.