Ruh-Roh, Cook Plans to Hold Out?

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Re: Ruh-Roh, Cook Plans to Hold Out?

Post by StumpHunter » Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:09 am

VikingLord wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:43 pm
S197 wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:01 pm
I guess what I’m saying is we are in a catch-22 situation because we have a QB that needs a strong cast around him to be successful. But his contract makes keeping a strong cast near impossible.
You seem awfully dismissive of Cousins' performance despite the fact that his stats put him solidly in the top 10 at his position last year. In fact, his overall stats in some categories would put him among the top 5 and, at least to me, aren't much less compelling than those put forward to claim Cook is a top 5 RB.

For the record, I don't think *anyone* deserves to make $30 million a year playing football, but that is the market rate for QBs. If Spielman and Zimmer don't think Cousins is worth that, they wouldn't have signed him to the deal.
Cousins was 16th in yards, 10th in TDs.

Cook was 10th in yards, 4th in TDs in rushing alone.

Based on raw production, Cook was better compared to his peers.

Of course using just yards and TDs to measure how well a QB played during the year is dumb. Winston was #1 in yards and #2 in TDs, and is a backup this season making 1 million. The impact Winston had on his offense was that of a one of the worst starting QBs in the NFL, despite his production being so high. In context, his numbers came in a lot of garbage time throwing to elite WRs that any QB could have had success throwing too. We understand that for QBs, but for RBs some people seem to think all 1k yard seasons are the same. They aren't. Some 1k yard rushing RBs have a larger impact on their team's success than others. They have more meaning to the team, just like 3600 yards and 26 TDs had more meaning than Winston's 5k yards and 33 TDs.
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Re: Ruh-Roh, Cook Plans to Hold Out?

Post by VikingsVictorious » Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:41 am

VikingLord wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:31 pm
VikingsVictorious wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:15 pm
My expectation is that if the Vikings have enough common sense to offer $10 million and Cook has the common sense to accept good things will come.
Unfortunately, we know only that the Vikings made an extension offer and Cook turned it down. We don't know what they offered, nor do we know what Cook wants, so it's hard to say.

What we do know is that no other team paying a RB top-5 money made the Superbowl in recent memory. It wouldn't be a move based on modeling what has worked for other competitive teams.
What other teams do is IMO irrelevant to what we should do. Just because other teams that didn't do that made super bowls it doesn't mean we can't in any way shape or form. I don't believe in modeling.
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Re: Ruh-Roh, Cook Plans to Hold Out?

Post by J. Kapp 11 » Thu Jul 02, 2020 11:09 am

VikingsVictorious wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:41 am
VikingLord wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:31 pm


Unfortunately, we know only that the Vikings made an extension offer and Cook turned it down. We don't know what they offered, nor do we know what Cook wants, so it's hard to say.

What we do know is that no other team paying a RB top-5 money made the Superbowl in recent memory. It wouldn't be a move based on modeling what has worked for other competitive teams.
What other teams do is IMO irrelevant to what we should do. Just because other teams that didn't do that made super bowls it doesn't mean we can't in any way shape or form. I don't believe in modeling.
Wow.

I respect your POV, but you and I would be totally incompatible as business partners. I believe that in any endeavor in life, be it football, business, or raising your kids, you're always better off starting with a benchmark of proven success. For example, if I'm going to be a sound engineer and want to own a record label, I start by learning from those who know what they're doing and have proven success. Then, when I actually know something, I branch off and try new ideas. If I try new ideas before I know what I'm doing, I'll spend a lot of money on fancy toys and fail huge.

As much as I hate 'em, I have to look at the Patriots as an organization worth emulating, at least from a business and roster-building standpoint. That team contends every year, yet you never see them with cap issues. That's because Belichick knows the true value of players, and he's not afraid to cut popular players just before they begin to decline. He's also a good enough coach to get the most out of young guys on rookie deals, and he supports those young players by sprinkling in higher-priced veterans in just the right places. If you believe that's a bad thing to emulate, then we're just going to disagree until the end of time.
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Re: Ruh-Roh, Cook Plans to Hold Out?

Post by Cliff » Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:16 pm

J. Kapp 11 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:40 am
He left two games early. Seattle and the Chargers. And in Week 13, Mattison had more yards from scrimmage. I know it sounds like nit-picking, but if you're going to make the argument that he was still the most effective player on the team, I'm gonna push back on the details.

Also the games you cite as Cook being the most effective ... you call 18 carries for 62 yards with a long of 9 effective? Kirk Cousins was the player of that game, going 24-of-30 for 242, along with the defense, which shut down hapless David Blough.

From week 9 to the end of the season, Cook never once averaged more than 3.7 YPA on the ground in any game, including the playoff game against New Orleans. That is not effective. And if he was the most effective player on the team, then that's sort of like being the world's tallest midget (or whatever the PC term is).

If Dalvin Cook had continued his first-half success to any degree, I would have a hard time arguing he can't be replaced. But come on. Cook was not the same player in the second half, and there's no argument that can be made that he was. Neither the numbers nor the eye test back that up.

I know fantasy doesn't mean squat, but even fantasy experts don't recommend drafting Dalvin Cook in the first round. The reason is that you simply don't know what you're going to get with him. I personally think he's the most talented back in football. But he's not the best back in football. That title goes to Christian McCaffrey, largely because McCaffrey is almost always available and effective. With Cook, all we ever get are glimpses of what he can do. Your mileage may vary, but to me, glimpses are not worth $10 million a year.
You're correct, Mattison did have more in week 13 and I overlooked that. I was kind of rushing putting the stats together.

When I wrote he was "the most effective player on the team" that doesn't necessarily mean he was super impressive but it was still better than any other non-QB offensive player did. That has value in my opinion.

I don't think he's the best back in football either due to the injury concerns. Still, the Vikings have built their offense around having an RB with the skills Cook possesses at RB. Cook wasn't the same player because he was injured, that's correct. Even so, a hobbled Dalvin Cook during that stretch was still often the most productive player on offense.

They've still got plenty of time to change strategies (maybe even an entire season) if things don't work out with Cook. They will definitely need to shift strategies though.
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Re: Ruh-Roh, Cook Plans to Hold Out?

Post by VikingLord » Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:44 pm

StumpHunter wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:09 am
VikingLord wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:43 pm


You seem awfully dismissive of Cousins' performance despite the fact that his stats put him solidly in the top 10 at his position last year. In fact, his overall stats in some categories would put him among the top 5 and, at least to me, aren't much less compelling than those put forward to claim Cook is a top 5 RB.

For the record, I don't think *anyone* deserves to make $30 million a year playing football, but that is the market rate for QBs. If Spielman and Zimmer don't think Cousins is worth that, they wouldn't have signed him to the deal.
Cousins was 16th in yards, 10th in TDs.

Cook was 10th in yards, 4th in TDs in rushing alone.

Based on raw production, Cook was better compared to his peers.
And yet, Cousins got the big dollar extension and Cook hasn't, at least not yet. Why do you think that is?

I'm curious what people on this board feel Spielman could get in trade for Cook. Look around the league as it stands right now. Who is in need of a Dalvin Cook and what do people think they'd be willing to offer to get him?
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Re: Ruh-Roh, Cook Plans to Hold Out?

Post by RandyMoss84 » Thu Jul 02, 2020 3:06 pm

VikingLord wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:44 pm
StumpHunter wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:09 am


Cousins was 16th in yards, 10th in TDs.

Cook was 10th in yards, 4th in TDs in rushing alone.

Based on raw production, Cook was better compared to his peers.
And yet, Cousins got the big dollar extension and Cook hasn't, at least not yet. Why do you think that is?

I'm curious what people on this board feel Spielman could get in trade for Cook. Look around the league as it stands right now. Who is in need of a Dalvin Cook and what do people think they'd be willing to offer to get him?
A 2nd rounder and a 4th rounder since he can not stay healthy, if he is healthy, a 1st rounder and a 3rd rounder
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Re: Ruh-Roh, Cook Plans to Hold Out?

Post by VikingLord » Thu Jul 02, 2020 3:20 pm

Cliff wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:16 pm
Still, the Vikings have built their offense around having an RB with the skills Cook possesses at RB.
I question whether that is true.

The more I look back on the 2019 season, the more convinced I am that what the Vikings got out of their running game, especially in the earlier part of the season, was as big a surprise to them as anyone. I say that based on two things:

- While Spielman and Zimmer had invested in the offensive line prior to the 2019 season, they were starting a rookie center, a 2nd year RT, and were placing a big bet on Elflein being able to play guard. In short, their starting OL was not one that suggested confidence in establishing the run.
- A lot of the success on the ground in the earlier part of the year was on the back of explosive runs. Most of those came from superlative efforts by Cook, but Mattison and others played a role as well. The run game wasn't really a "churn" style where the regular, needed yardage came consistently. It was more "Wow! How did Cook do that!?!?"

I'd also argue that based on that early, explosive success generated mostly by Cook, the Vikings didn't really need to rely on Cousins and the passing game as much and so they didn't. They rode Cook's Superman imitation running as long as they could, and those who observe (rightfully) that Cousins and the passing game's relative performance went down when Cook wasn't on the field was probably largely a result of that.

I think that led to two consequences for this year, both of which are coming out in this thread. First and foremost, the obvious conclusion is that Cook is "necessary" to make the Vikings offense go. After all, there is plenty of evidence that is true. But I'd argue that Cook masked not Cousins' deficiencies per se, but more the deficiencies of the offensive line. When Cook wasn't imitating Superman and the burden fell on Cousins and the passing game more, the offensive line was roughly still as effective, and as a result Cousins, who doesn't imitate Superman that often, couldn't overcome those deficiencies nearly as often, and in many cases not at all. Second, and less obvious, is the perception mentioned by Cliff that the Vikings have built their offense around a 1970's era strategy of run-first. I think recent offensive signings and the lack of investment in the type of offensive linemen necessary to implement that strategy belies this. As has been pointed out numerous times, a run-first team that looks to its QB to execute only screen passes and hand off the football doesn't need to compensate him like a top QB. A run-first team doesn't invest sizeable cap in a pass-first vet TE either, nor does it use a high draft pick on a rookie TE who is known primarily for his route running and receiving skills.

There are probably valid counterpoints to these, but I'd say the evidence doesn't support the claim that the Vikings *intended" to be a running team last year. I'd go further to say they do not intend to be one in 2020, either, and their offseason moves in terms of players and extensions support that contention. They want to be able to run, but I don't think they value the explosive element to the run game as much as we fans might think, and they are likely more than content to head into 2020 without Cook if he forces that outcome. I'd say the Vikings want to be an effective and explosive team passing the ball, supplementing that with efficient, well-timed running.

Whether that is wise is left as an exercise for the reader.
Last edited by VikingLord on Thu Jul 02, 2020 3:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Ruh-Roh, Cook Plans to Hold Out?

Post by VikingLord » Thu Jul 02, 2020 3:23 pm

RandyMoss84 wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 3:06 pm
VikingLord wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:44 pm


And yet, Cousins got the big dollar extension and Cook hasn't, at least not yet. Why do you think that is?

I'm curious what people on this board feel Spielman could get in trade for Cook. Look around the league as it stands right now. Who is in need of a Dalvin Cook and what do people think they'd be willing to offer to get him?
A 2nd rounder and a 4th rounder since he can not stay healthy, if he is healthy, a 1st rounder and a 3rd rounder
What team(s) would be willing to offer that? What teams need a runner like Cook?

Let's assume this trade must take place before the season starts and Cook ends up penalized under the CBA. I'd assume neither the Vikings nor he would want Cook to suffer those penalties if it can be avoided, so in terms of Cook's health going into a trade, you only have his last 3 seasons to go off.
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Re: Ruh-Roh, Cook Plans to Hold Out?

Post by StumpHunter » Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:16 pm

VikingLord wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:44 pm
StumpHunter wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:09 am


Cousins was 16th in yards, 10th in TDs.

Cook was 10th in yards, 4th in TDs in rushing alone.

Based on raw production, Cook was better compared to his peers.
And yet, Cousins got the big dollar extension and Cook hasn't, at least not yet. Why do you think that is?

I'm curious what people on this board feel Spielman could get in trade for Cook. Look around the league as it stands right now. Who is in need of a Dalvin Cook and what do people think they'd be willing to offer to get him?
The extension of Cousins did make very little sense, but that is besides the point.

At this point Cook isn't worth a lot but that could change. The right injuries to the right team and a market could open up for him.
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Re: Ruh-Roh, Cook Plans to Hold Out?

Post by S197 » Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:48 pm

VikingLord wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:43 pm
S197 wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:01 pm
I guess what I’m saying is we are in a catch-22 situation because we have a QB that needs a strong cast around him to be successful. But his contract makes keeping a strong cast near impossible.
You seem awfully dismissive of Cousins' performance despite the fact that his stats put him solidly in the top 10 at his position last year. In fact, his overall stats in some categories would put him among the top 5 and, at least to me, aren't much less compelling than those put forward to claim Cook is a top 5 RB.

For the record, I don't think *anyone* deserves to make $30 million a year playing football, but that is the market rate for QBs. If Spielman and Zimmer don't think Cousins is worth that, they wouldn't have signed him to the deal.
Stump already touched on some of the fallacies in those numbers. Also as previously mentioned, our pass offense was in the bottom half of the league.

I realize the Cousins debate is very polarizing and not everyone is going to agree. So it may sound dismissive to you and that's ok. It's just my contention that Cousins is a rather average QB in aggregate. He has above average skills, his arm and leadership qualities. Below average, his immobility and over conservativeness. Etc.

What's interesting about the two players is their best and worst traits are the same. To me, Cousins best trait is his durability. Something we haven't had in a QB in ages. Cook of course is the antithesis. Cook's best trait is his ability to elevate and pretty much carry an offense at times (the Dallas game as an example). Cousins is more of a player that does well when those around him play well. In my opinion of course.

And that could be part of the debate. Pay for risk and explosiveness. Or pay for consistency but a lower ceiling.
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Re: Ruh-Roh, Cook Plans to Hold Out?

Post by RandyMoss84 » Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:39 pm

S197 wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:48 pm
VikingLord wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:43 pm


You seem awfully dismissive of Cousins' performance despite the fact that his stats put him solidly in the top 10 at his position last year. In fact, his overall stats in some categories would put him among the top 5 and, at least to me, aren't much less compelling than those put forward to claim Cook is a top 5 RB.

For the record, I don't think *anyone* deserves to make $30 million a year playing football, but that is the market rate for QBs. If Spielman and Zimmer don't think Cousins is worth that, they wouldn't have signed him to the deal.
Stump already touched on some of the fallacies in those numbers. Also as previously mentioned, our pass offense was in the bottom half of the league.

I realize the Cousins debate is very polarizing and not everyone is going to agree. So it may sound dismissive to you and that's ok. It's just my contention that Cousins is a rather average QB in aggregate. He has above average skills, his arm and leadership qualities. Below average, his immobility and over conservativeness. Etc.

What's interesting about the two players is their best and worst traits are the same. To me, Cousins best trait is his durability. Something we haven't had in a QB in ages. Cook of course is the antithesis. Cook's best trait is his ability to elevate and pretty much carry an offense at times (the Dallas game as an example). Cousins is more of a player that does well when those around him play well. In my opinion of course.

And that could be part of the debate. Pay for risk and explosiveness. Or pay for consistency but a lower ceiling.
Cousins is not even close to being average, so far, Cousins has 7,901 yards, 56 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions, if you want to see an average player, go watch Ryan Tannehill
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Re: Ruh-Roh, Cook Plans to Hold Out?

Post by VikingsVictorious » Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:38 pm

J. Kapp 11 wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 11:09 am
VikingsVictorious wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:41 am

What other teams do is IMO irrelevant to what we should do. Just because other teams that didn't do that made super bowls it doesn't mean we can't in any way shape or form. I don't believe in modeling.
Wow.

I respect your POV, but you and I would be totally incompatible as business partners. I believe that in any endeavor in life, be it football, business, or raising your kids, you're always better off starting with a benchmark of proven success. For example, if I'm going to be a sound engineer and want to own a record label, I start by learning from those who know what they're doing and have proven success. Then, when I actually know something, I branch off and try new ideas. If I try new ideas before I know what I'm doing, I'll spend a lot of money on fancy toys and fail huge.

As much as I hate 'em, I have to look at the Patriots as an organization worth emulating, at least from a business and roster-building standpoint. That team contends every year, yet you never see them with cap issues. That's because Belichick knows the true value of players, and he's not afraid to cut popular players just before they begin to decline. He's also a good enough coach to get the most out of young guys on rookie deals, and he supports those young players by sprinkling in higher-priced veterans in just the right places. If you believe that's a bad thing to emulate, then we're just going to disagree until the end of time.
I'm going to do what I believe is most successful. Sometimes that will be similar to what somebody else did and other times it won't.
If I were running the Vikings I would do what is best for the Vikings NOT what is best for the Patriots.
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Re: Ruh-Roh, Cook Plans to Hold Out?

Post by VikingsVictorious » Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:41 pm

VikingLord wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:44 pm
StumpHunter wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:09 am


Cousins was 16th in yards, 10th in TDs.

Cook was 10th in yards, 4th in TDs in rushing alone.

Based on raw production, Cook was better compared to his peers.
And yet, Cousins got the big dollar extension and Cook hasn't, at least not yet. Why do you think that is?

I'm curious what people on this board feel Spielman could get in trade for Cook. Look around the league as it stands right now. Who is in need of a Dalvin Cook and what do people think they'd be willing to offer to get him?
Miami is the obvious trade partner. They have a 2 headed crappy RB in Brieda and Howard. Cook IIRC is from Miami or that vicinity.
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Re: Ruh-Roh, Cook Plans to Hold Out?

Post by J. Kapp 11 » Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:10 am

VikingsVictorious wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:38 pm
J. Kapp 11 wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 11:09 am

Wow.

I respect your POV, but you and I would be totally incompatible as business partners. I believe that in any endeavor in life, be it football, business, or raising your kids, you're always better off starting with a benchmark of proven success. For example, if I'm going to be a sound engineer and want to own a record label, I start by learning from those who know what they're doing and have proven success. Then, when I actually know something, I branch off and try new ideas. If I try new ideas before I know what I'm doing, I'll spend a lot of money on fancy toys and fail huge.

As much as I hate 'em, I have to look at the Patriots as an organization worth emulating, at least from a business and roster-building standpoint. That team contends every year, yet you never see them with cap issues. That's because Belichick knows the true value of players, and he's not afraid to cut popular players just before they begin to decline. He's also a good enough coach to get the most out of young guys on rookie deals, and he supports those young players by sprinkling in higher-priced veterans in just the right places. If you believe that's a bad thing to emulate, then we're just going to disagree until the end of time.
I'm going to do what I believe is most successful. Sometimes that will be similar to what somebody else did and other times it won't.
If I were running the Vikings I would do what is best for the Vikings NOT what is best for the Patriots.
You mean to tell me that you reject good ideas simply because somebody else came up with them? You can’t find anything the Patriots do that would be universally applicable? How about the way they set up contracts so they can move on from players before they decline? Sure, not every player is going to decline at the same point, but you can’t see where such a concept would apply to the Vikings or any other team?

Even Steve Jobs, as much a genius as he was, had to be fired because he refused to learn smart business practices that others were trying to show him. He had a million ideas but couldn’t run a company — a skill he needed to learn from others.

If a person can’t learn from the successes and failures of others, then I want no part of working with that person.
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Re: Ruh-Roh, Cook Plans to Hold Out?

Post by J. Kapp 11 » Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:19 am

VikingLord wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:44 pm
StumpHunter wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:09 am


Cousins was 16th in yards, 10th in TDs.

Cook was 10th in yards, 4th in TDs in rushing alone.

Based on raw production, Cook was better compared to his peers.
And yet, Cousins got the big dollar extension and Cook hasn't, at least not yet. Why do you think that is?

I'm curious what people on this board feel Spielman could get in trade for Cook. Look around the league as it stands right now. Who is in need of a Dalvin Cook and what do people think they'd be willing to offer to get him?
Given the state of the NFL and the running back position, the uncertainty of future cap and CBA concerns, Cook’s demands to be overpaid, and his inability to stay on the field, I’m not sure ANYONE would trade ANYTHING for him. If they did, it would be a lowball offer.

I know what some of you are going to say — that I don’t think much of Dalvin Cook. That’s not it at all. It’s more like you need a heavy-duty truck and somebody tries to sell you a Ferrari. You may like the Ferrari. You may think it’s the coolest car on the planet. But you don’t need it, and you don’t want to pay for it.

Cook is a Ferrari. Fast, sleek, high performer — but costs a fortune and is in the shop a lot.
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