Perplexing draft

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S197
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Re: Perplexing draft

Post by S197 » Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:25 pm

RandyMoss84 wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:36 am
halfgiz wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:19 am
I would have liked to seen us make a try for Madubuike, Josh Jones or a few others.
Rick sat there with 11 picks and didn’t even make a move.
13 picks for today is ridiculous. I for one will be glad when Rick is gone and we start trying to add 2nd and 3 round personnel instead of 7th round people.
I do not know why you are complaining about it? Do you rather be the Saints and have no picks at all today?
I’d take 4 or 5 guys I’m confident in that can make a difference to my team than 17 guys I can’t evaluate and will end up off the roster anyway.
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Re: Perplexing draft

Post by Texas Vike » Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:19 pm

84BreaksAnkles wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:33 pm
I would like to make an omission.

I believe I reacted too hastily towards the Cleveland and Dantzler picks. While I still hold the contention that I am not too thrilled that we didn't trade up one time in day two, I rescind most of my bashing of our 2nd & 3rd round picks.

Also, seeing how day three is going so far, I am quite pleased. I really do think we missed a chance to add another dynamic potential difference maker on day 2, but thus far I can't complain too much about our picks.

My criticisms of Cleveland and my reservations on him remain to be seen, but to be honest he does a lot of things well, I am just worried that vs. the Chris Jones' of the world and the SF front 7's of the world he will be more of a liability than an asset. Hopefully I stand corrected.

Cameron Dantzler also seems to be a potentially solid player. I never saw that he posted ~4.4 at his pro day, and after digging into some more film, I feel a little more optimistic about him. I still think he has to fill out that frame a little more, get up to ~195-200lbs. But he made some good plays.
Props on this post and admitting your mistaken takes.

Regarding the combine punch: I watched the videos in your signature line in reverse order (Cleveland and then Wills). It seemed to me that maybe Wills went after Cleveland and gave that Texans coach all he could handle after he yelled that smart as$ line about hitting the bag, which it looked like he said to the players standing in line. Cleveland was obviously focused on his footwork there, which was the point of the exercise. Taking these videos out of context is problematic for numerous reasons.
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Re: Perplexing draft

Post by StumpHunter » Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:10 pm

Texas Vike wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:19 pm
84BreaksAnkles wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:33 pm
I would like to make an omission.

I believe I reacted too hastily towards the Cleveland and Dantzler picks. While I still hold the contention that I am not too thrilled that we didn't trade up one time in day two, I rescind most of my bashing of our 2nd & 3rd round picks.

Also, seeing how day three is going so far, I am quite pleased. I really do think we missed a chance to add another dynamic potential difference maker on day 2, but thus far I can't complain too much about our picks.

My criticisms of Cleveland and my reservations on him remain to be seen, but to be honest he does a lot of things well, I am just worried that vs. the Chris Jones' of the world and the SF front 7's of the world he will be more of a liability than an asset. Hopefully I stand corrected.

Cameron Dantzler also seems to be a potentially solid player. I never saw that he posted ~4.4 at his pro day, and after digging into some more film, I feel a little more optimistic about him. I still think he has to fill out that frame a little more, get up to ~195-200lbs. But he made some good plays.
Props on this post and admitting your mistaken takes.
It takes a big man to come out and say he was wrong, especially after some of the less than civil responses he got.
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Re: Perplexing draft

Post by Texas Vike » Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:13 pm

StumpHunter wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:10 pm
Texas Vike wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:19 pm


Props on this post and admitting your mistaken takes.
It takes a big man to come out and say he was wrong, especially after some of the less than civil responses he got.
I agree. It's nice to see.
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Re: Perplexing draft

Post by fiestavike » Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:20 pm

S197 wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:25 pm
RandyMoss84 wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:36 am


I do not know why you are complaining about it? Do you rather be the Saints and have no picks at all today?
I’d take 4 or 5 guys I’m confident in that can make a difference to my team than 17 guys I can’t evaluate and will end up off the roster anyway.
Certainly, if that were the way it actually worked, everyone would agree. The truth is, after the coin toss that is the first round, and the roll of the dice that is the 2nd and 3rd round, the 4th-7th are mostly a dart board. Like I said, 105 has a minimally higher chance of success that 130, while 130, 169, 199, 225 (whatever it was) has an exponentially higher chance of success than 105.
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Re: Perplexing draft

Post by S197 » Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:55 pm

fiestavike wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:20 pm
S197 wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:25 pm


I’d take 4 or 5 guys I’m confident in that can make a difference to my team than 17 guys I can’t evaluate and will end up off the roster anyway.
Certainly, if that were the way it actually worked, everyone would agree. The truth is, after the coin toss that is the first round, and the roll of the dice that is the 2nd and 3rd round, the 4th-7th are mostly a dart board. Like I said, 105 has a minimally higher chance of success that 130, while 130, 169, 199, 225 (whatever it was) has an exponentially higher chance of success than 105.
If that’s true then why doesn’t every team compile 10 picks a year? Also what’s the point of a GM? Anyone on this board can make picks in round 1 and 2.
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Re: Perplexing draft

Post by Frozen Rope » Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:45 pm

S197 wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:25 pm
RandyMoss84 wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:36 am


I do not know why you are complaining about it? Do you rather be the Saints and have no picks at all today?
I’d take 4 or 5 guys I’m confident in that can make a difference to my team than 17 guys I can’t evaluate and will end up off the roster anyway.
If I’m to make a case for trading up and getting fewer but better picks, it would be this. With 17 picks, there are no OTA’s, and very possibly a shortened training camp. With so little time, how do you fairly evaluate talent under such tight time restrictions. The coaching staff knew this going in. So why didn’t we trade up for quality picks and increase the odds of better players making the squad?
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Re: Perplexing draft

Post by Texas Vike » Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:31 pm

Frozen Rope wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:45 pm
S197 wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:25 pm


I’d take 4 or 5 guys I’m confident in that can make a difference to my team than 17 guys I can’t evaluate and will end up off the roster anyway.
If I’m to make a case for trading up and getting fewer but better picks, it would be this. With 17 picks, there are no OTA’s, and very possibly a shortened training camp. With so little time, how do you fairly evaluate talent under such tight time restrictions. The coaching staff knew this going in. So why didn’t we trade up for quality picks and increase the odds of better players making the squad?
For the final 53? I agree. But something I heard from Spielman in an interview this morning was that the Vikings pre-draft have 60 players and need to get to 90. I think he views the draft as his main opportunity to gain at least half of that 30. UDFA being the other half.
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Re: Perplexing draft

Post by fiestavike » Sun Apr 26, 2020 1:33 am

S197 wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:55 pm
fiestavike wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:20 pm


Certainly, if that were the way it actually worked, everyone would agree. The truth is, after the coin toss that is the first round, and the roll of the dice that is the 2nd and 3rd round, the 4th-7th are mostly a dart board. Like I said, 105 has a minimally higher chance of success that 130, while 130, 169, 199, 225 (whatever it was) has an exponentially higher chance of success than 105.
If that’s true then why doesn’t every team compile 10 picks a year? Also what’s the point of a GM? Anyone on this board can make picks in round 1 and 2.
I'm not sure I follow. The difference between a good gm and a poor gm in terms of making draft picks is like the difference between batting 300 and the mendoza line. There are a lot of variables. Maybe most GMs don't focus on acquiring extra picks because they lack the humility to recognize the picks they're confident about are still going to be approximately a coin toss, a dice roll, or a dart throw, so to speak. Their confidence maybe makes their first round pick a 60 percent shot. It does not make it a 100 percent shot. Maybe the answer to your question is simply 'hubris'.
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Re: Perplexing draft

Post by S197 » Sun Apr 26, 2020 3:10 am

fiestavike wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 1:33 am
S197 wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:55 pm


If that’s true then why doesn’t every team compile 10 picks a year? Also what’s the point of a GM? Anyone on this board can make picks in round 1 and 2.
I'm not sure I follow. The difference between a good gm and a poor gm in terms of making draft picks is like the difference between batting 300 and the mendoza line. There are a lot of variables. Maybe most GMs don't focus on acquiring extra picks because they lack the humility to recognize the picks they're confident about are still going to be approximately a coin toss, a dice roll, or a dart throw, so to speak. Their confidence maybe makes their first round pick a 60 percent shot. It does not make it a 100 percent shot. Maybe the answer to your question is simply 'hubris'.
Or it doesn’t work. The last team to draft this many picks (one less) was the Dolphins in the late 90s. This is a copycat league, when things work other teams adopt it. Zimmer’s Double A gap look as an example. There’s no hubris there, teams see it working and they implement. I don’t know why this would be any different.

Not to mention we don’t even need to rely on anecdotal evidence because Rick does this a lot. 2014 was 10 picks, and he hit on 3. Two of which were in round 1. In 2017 he hit on 2 maybe 3 out of 11. And again, 1 was a 2nd rounder. If he was cleaning up with this strategy that’s one thing but he’s at a 20-30% hit rate. Some years (2015) are better but there’s not a lot of evidence it’s a great strategy.
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Re: Perplexing draft

Post by fiestavike » Sun Apr 26, 2020 4:23 am

S197 wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 3:10 am
fiestavike wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 1:33 am


I'm not sure I follow. The difference between a good gm and a poor gm in terms of making draft picks is like the difference between batting 300 and the mendoza line. There are a lot of variables. Maybe most GMs don't focus on acquiring extra picks because they lack the humility to recognize the picks they're confident about are still going to be approximately a coin toss, a dice roll, or a dart throw, so to speak. Their confidence maybe makes their first round pick a 60 percent shot. It does not make it a 100 percent shot. Maybe the answer to your question is simply 'hubris'.
Or it doesn’t work. The last team to draft this many picks (one less) was the Dolphins in the late 90s. This is a copycat league, when things work other teams adopt it. Zimmer’s Double A gap look as an example. There’s no hubris there, teams see it working and they implement. I don’t know why this would be any different.

Not to mention we don’t even need to rely on anecdotal evidence because Rick does this a lot. 2014 was 10 picks, and he hit on 3. Two of which were in round 1. In 2017 he hit on 2 maybe 3 out of 11. And again, 1 was a 2nd rounder. If he was cleaning up with this strategy that’s one thing but he’s at a 20-30% hit rate. Some years (2015) are better but there’s not a lot of evidence it’s a great strategy.
I'm not sure why you'd expect the hit rate to be higher than it is. Most picks are going to be misses. That's the point I am making.

Still, I think I counted 40 players on the Vikings roster last year that were 4th round or later. Decent roster composition requires finding short term contributors in late rounds and rookie FA. NFL network kept flashing evidence that the approach has some merit, in that the 2019 vikings led the NFL in percentage of the roster being homegrown players. That seems relevant. I think we're just operating on a different standard or expectation.

Obviously, a 1st round pick is way more valuable than a 7th. That's just not relevant to anything the Vikings have actually done in trading back with Spielman. Its not as though they could trade 4 7ths for a 1st. If they could, they certainly should. The reality is 25 vs 31 (plus 2 picks), 105 vs 130 (plus 3 picks) etc. I don't think there tends to be a stark difference in success between those picks historically or statistically. Frankly, I'm not sure why people are freaking out about it. It seems very obviously to be the correct move. :confused:

It might have been nice to trade up in a couple spots. It might have been great to add another 3rd rounder, where the success rate is going to be higher. Maybe they could have, or maybe they couldn't find trade partners. We'll never know for sure.
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Re: Perplexing draft

Post by Pep2Moss » Tue Apr 28, 2020 12:52 pm

I thought we had a pretty great top 4 rounds, I'll defer to Patterson on Woonum....but not in love from then on. These guys remember are going to take spots from maybe other later draft picks, so it's really just a bottom of the roster turnover with no real upside, at first blush of course.

Barring injury the Vikings top 4 in WR seems locked down. They seem to really like Hollins. Keep Osborn as the 6th wr?

The two guards are practice squad players for now. Stanley will not contribute for years if at all. Hand if he stays at corner is a redshirt this year for sure, unless they throw him into the safety mix. Cole and Metellus should be special teamers this season and subs at safety and Willekes will break into the DE rotation sooner than later IMO.

All in all I really liked it overall, but honestly didn't like passing on Tyler Johnson and or Piroche who I think will be good players and guys we could have used, but I get the Osborn ST/PR/Leader fascination from the brass.
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Re: Perplexing draft

Post by VikingsVictorious » Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:02 pm

S197 wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 3:10 am
fiestavike wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 1:33 am


I'm not sure I follow. The difference between a good gm and a poor gm in terms of making draft picks is like the difference between batting 300 and the mendoza line. There are a lot of variables. Maybe most GMs don't focus on acquiring extra picks because they lack the humility to recognize the picks they're confident about are still going to be approximately a coin toss, a dice roll, or a dart throw, so to speak. Their confidence maybe makes their first round pick a 60 percent shot. It does not make it a 100 percent shot. Maybe the answer to your question is simply 'hubris'.
Or it doesn’t work. The last team to draft this many picks (one less) was the Dolphins in the late 90s. This is a copycat league, when things work other teams adopt it. Zimmer’s Double A gap look as an example. There’s no hubris there, teams see it working and they implement. I don’t know why this would be any different.

Not to mention we don’t even need to rely on anecdotal evidence because Rick does this a lot. 2014 was 10 picks, and he hit on 3. Two of which were in round 1. In 2017 he hit on 2 maybe 3 out of 11. And again, 1 was a 2nd rounder. If he was cleaning up with this strategy that’s one thing but he’s at a 20-30% hit rate. Some years (2015) are better but there’s not a lot of evidence it’s a great strategy.
What is your definition of hit?
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Re: Perplexing draft

Post by VikingsVictorious » Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:08 pm

Pep2Moss wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 12:52 pm
I thought we had a pretty great top 4 rounds, I'll defer to Patterson on Woonum....but not in love from then on. These guys remember are going to take spots from maybe other later draft picks, so it's really just a bottom of the roster turnover with no real upside, at first blush of course.

Barring injury the Vikings top 4 in WR seems locked down. They seem to really like Hollins. Keep Osborn as the 6th wr?

The two guards are practice squad players for now. Stanley will not contribute for years if at all. Hand if he stays at corner is a redshirt this year for sure, unless they throw him into the safety mix. Cole and Metellus should be special teamers this season and subs at safety and Willekes will break into the DE rotation sooner than later IMO.

All in all I really liked it overall, but honestly didn't like passing on Tyler Johnson and or Piroche who I think will be good players and guys we could have used, but I get the Osborn ST/PR/Leader fascination from the brass.
Really like Hollins????????
I really hope not. Otherwise solid post. As for Osborn when a team drafts a specialist even in the 7th round I'm expecting that player to stick. I see Osborn as a PR/ST specialist and he should be regarded as the last WR on the team how ever many we keep. I would prefer keeping 5 rather than 6.
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Re: Perplexing draft

Post by S197 » Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:47 pm

VikingsVictorious wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:02 pm
S197 wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 3:10 am


Or it doesn’t work. The last team to draft this many picks (one less) was the Dolphins in the late 90s. This is a copycat league, when things work other teams adopt it. Zimmer’s Double A gap look as an example. There’s no hubris there, teams see it working and they implement. I don’t know why this would be any different.

Not to mention we don’t even need to rely on anecdotal evidence because Rick does this a lot. 2014 was 10 picks, and he hit on 3. Two of which were in round 1. In 2017 he hit on 2 maybe 3 out of 11. And again, 1 was a 2nd rounder. If he was cleaning up with this strategy that’s one thing but he’s at a 20-30% hit rate. Some years (2015) are better but there’s not a lot of evidence it’s a great strategy.
What is your definition of hit?
Someone who makes a meaningful contribution to the team. In 2017 that's Cook and Gedeon. I added an extra spot for Ifeadi in the event he pans out or if Elflein miraculously turns things around.
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