Cousins signs 2 year extension (Details)

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Re: Cousins signs 2 year extension (Details)

Post by StumpHunter » Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:34 pm

VikingsVictorious wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:24 am
psjordan wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:52 am
Someone (pro writer, not us schloobs) wrote an article back before Goff signed his extension, basically saying after looking over all the numbers, stats, wins and losses, that it was silly to sign these QB's to major $ extensions. Saying the Rams would be better off letting him walk and starting over, but always drafting a young "does he have it?" type QB to have in the fold. The article implied, but did not state outright, that the QB position should go the way of the RB position. Don't pay up, don't extend, just keep drafting players who can play on their rookie deal. If they turn into a 30 million dollar per year stud, let them walk.

I mentioned that article to several friends at the time, who all guffawed and said "that is absolute lunacy". I'm seriously starting to wonder.

Brady did the Patriots so many solids over the years that I swore he made a secret deal with Kraft to own some small percentage of the team when he retires. Other than Brady, just about every "top 10-15" QB has grabbed the money with gusto when the time came, and teams caved. I think including ours. I have done zero statistically-valid digging to see how that impacted playoff wins and losses.

Considering EVERYTHING, would we really be that worse off with say Hurts playing as a rookie, and one or two [fill in your favorite position of need] stud rookies at other critical, not-so-highly-paid positions? And being able to dole more reasonable dollars to vets who have proved themselves at non-glam positions?

I for one would be just fine with the team taking that gamble. It's how the Seahawks thrived during Russell's rookie deal.

It's a huge gamble of a strategy, but so is paying your veteran QB out of this world numbers. And I don't think the team is selling more Cousins jerseys after the extension.
Comparing QBs to RBs in this scenario is like comparing apples to oranges. Great QBs can remain great for 15 or more years. They are very hard to find. Only way this not paying the QBs the big bucks idea will work is if all the owners collude to not bid on the QBs that the other teams are letting go to go with a Jalen Hurts. Won't work. WRs are up to 20 million a year for the very best. Teams could just start saying they won't pay them and go with rookies. how about O Line. You could take this strategy with every position, but so far it's the RBs that tend to be the risky ones that teams should not invest big bucks in.
Well, let's look at how teams have fared after giving a QB a big contract following success with one on a rookie contract.
The last 4 big ones:
Rams - In the SB to not in the playoffs following the Goff extension
Eagles - Won the SB, to barely making the playoffs in a terrible division
Oakland - 13 win season to being a bottom dweller
Vikings - 13 win season and in the NFCC, to 7 wins

Wait, I must be missing someone because there must be a success story of paying a non-elite QB a large contract. Otherwise, why would teams keep doing it?
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Re: Cousins signs 2 year extension (Details)

Post by Pondering Her Percy » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:57 pm

StumpHunter wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:34 pm
VikingsVictorious wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:24 am

Comparing QBs to RBs in this scenario is like comparing apples to oranges. Great QBs can remain great for 15 or more years. They are very hard to find. Only way this not paying the QBs the big bucks idea will work is if all the owners collude to not bid on the QBs that the other teams are letting go to go with a Jalen Hurts. Won't work. WRs are up to 20 million a year for the very best. Teams could just start saying they won't pay them and go with rookies. how about O Line. You could take this strategy with every position, but so far it's the RBs that tend to be the risky ones that teams should not invest big bucks in.
Well, let's look at how teams have fared after giving a QB a big contract following success with one on a rookie contract.
The last 4 big ones:
Rams - In the SB to not in the playoffs following the Goff extension
Eagles - Won the SB, to barely making the playoffs in a terrible division
Oakland - 13 win season to being a bottom dweller
Vikings - 13 win season and in the NFCC, to 7 wins

Wait, I must be missing someone because there must be a success story of paying a non-elite QB a large contract. Otherwise, why would teams keep doing it?
It was 8 wins not 7 but either way, QBs are going to continue to get paid and the contracts are going to continue to get bigger and bigger. Cousins is going to continue to go down the list when it comes to the size of his contract. This is just the way the market works and will continue to work. Having a $2 million backup QB that somehow gets you to an NFCC game is a one in a million thing. It just doesnt happen. And even if it did, you're paying him a pretty penny the following offseason. Hence Ryan Tannehill, Case Keenum. You have to pay your damn QB at some point, period. Never is it going to be where the size of the contract is based on the talent of the player when it comes to QBs. There are always guys either being overpaid or underpaid. At all positions, not just QB. If you expect any different, I dont know what to tell you. Guys say Cousins is paid like an elite QB. Well not really because being paid like an elite QB would be a deal that Mahomes is about to rake in. The world is about to see how an elite QB really gets paid. It will make Cousins contract look like vet minimum. Sure, initially it seemed that way when Cousins first got the contract from the Vikings but the market quickly resets and does nothing but rise from there. I remember in 2011 I believe, Flacco got a contract making him the highest paid QB and within like a 2-3 year span he was down to like 8th or lower. The market is about leverage and it is why you continue to see these contracts rapidly rise and they will continue to do so. In a 5 years, $84 million guaranteed is going to look like $100 bucks
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Re: Cousins signs 2 year extension (Details)

Post by StumpHunter » Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:41 pm

Pondering Her Percy wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:57 pm
StumpHunter wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:34 pm

Well, let's look at how teams have fared after giving a QB a big contract following success with one on a rookie contract.
The last 4 big ones:
Rams - In the SB to not in the playoffs following the Goff extension
Eagles - Won the SB, to barely making the playoffs in a terrible division
Oakland - 13 win season to being a bottom dweller
Vikings - 13 win season and in the NFCC, to 7 wins

Wait, I must be missing someone because there must be a success story of paying a non-elite QB a large contract. Otherwise, why would teams keep doing it?
It was 8 wins not 7 but either way, QBs are going to continue to get paid and the contracts are going to continue to get bigger and bigger. Cousins is going to continue to go down the list when it comes to the size of his contract. This is just the way the market works and will continue to work. Having a $2 million backup QB that somehow gets you to an NFCC game is a one in a million thing. It just doesnt happen. And even if it did, you're paying him a pretty penny the following offseason. Hence Ryan Tannehill, Case Keenum. You have to pay your damn QB at some point, period. Never is it going to be where the size of the contract is based on the talent of the player when it comes to QBs. There are always guys either being overpaid or underpaid. At all positions, not just QB. If you expect any different, I dont know what to tell you. Guys say Cousins is paid like an elite QB. Well not really because being paid like an elite QB would be a deal that Mahomes is about to rake in. The world is about to see how an elite QB really gets paid. It will make Cousins contract look like vet minimum. Sure, initially it seemed that way when Cousins first got the contract from the Vikings but the market quickly resets and does nothing but rise from there. I remember in 2011 I believe, Flacco got a contract making him the highest paid QB and within like a 2-3 year span he was down to like 8th or lower. The market is about leverage and it is why you continue to see these contracts rapidly rise and they will continue to do so. In a 5 years, $84 million guaranteed is going to look like $100 bucks
John Elway made 4.5 million in 1994. A bargain now, right?

I don't really get this argument. Right now he has the best contract in the history of the NFL with what is essentially a 5 years, 150 million dollars guaranteed contract. That is better than Wilson and Rodgers who just got extensions last year, which is absurd
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Re: Cousins signs 2 year extension (Details)

Post by psjordan » Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:12 pm

Pondering Her Percy wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:57 pm
You have to pay your damn QB at some point, period. The market is about leverage and it is why you continue to see these contracts rapidly rise and they will continue to do so. In a 5 years, $84 million guaranteed is going to look like $100 bucks
Yup, that is status quo. The point of the article was that it shouldn't be. That the Rams should have traded Goff before extending him. That teams may well be better off trading that stud and working with the resulting players and $.

I realize that goes against both convention and "common NFL wisdom", but the point of the article was that history says it works out less times than it doesn't. And that teams need to consider a new approach. Obviously the Rams didn't read the article.
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Re: Cousins signs 2 year extension (Details)

Post by StumpHunter » Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:07 pm

psjordan wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:12 pm
Pondering Her Percy wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:57 pm
You have to pay your damn QB at some point, period. The market is about leverage and it is why you continue to see these contracts rapidly rise and they will continue to do so. In a 5 years, $84 million guaranteed is going to look like $100 bucks
Yup, that is status quo. The point of the article was that it shouldn't be. That the Rams should have traded Goff before extending him. That teams may well be better off trading that stud and working with the resulting players and $.

I realize that goes against both convention and "common NFL wisdom", but the point of the article was that history says it works out less times than it doesn't. And that teams need to consider a new approach. Obviously the Rams didn't read the article.
I think GM's know this but are fearful of bottoming out if they draft the next Winston or Marriota. They have to know it, since paying a QB of Goff's caliber that much money never works out.

The irony is that if they would just stop paying every QB who doesn't suck like they are Russel Wilson, eventually a long term quality QB would become a better option than starting over with a rookie once again.
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Re: Cousins signs 2 year extension (Details)

Post by YikesVikes » Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:06 pm

StumpHunter wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:07 pm
psjordan wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:12 pm


Yup, that is status quo. The point of the article was that it shouldn't be. That the Rams should have traded Goff before extending him. That teams may well be better off trading that stud and working with the resulting players and $.

I realize that goes against both convention and "common NFL wisdom", but the point of the article was that history says it works out less times than it doesn't. And that teams need to consider a new approach. Obviously the Rams didn't read the article.
I think GM's know this but are fearful of bottoming out if they draft the next Winston or Marriota. They have to know it, since paying a QB of Goff's caliber that much money never works out.

The irony is that if they would just stop paying every QB who doesn't suck like they are Russel Wilson, eventually a long term quality QB would become a better option than starting over with a rookie once again.
You guys should also remember that Goffs was son a year before the contract. He was a near MVP player. After he signed he instantly looked awful but based on his play, the co tract was a bargain.
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Re: Cousins signs 2 year extension (Details)

Post by VikingsVictorious » Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:09 pm

YikesVikes wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:06 pm
StumpHunter wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:07 pm


I think GM's know this but are fearful of bottoming out if they draft the next Winston or Marriota. They have to know it, since paying a QB of Goff's caliber that much money never works out.

The irony is that if they would just stop paying every QB who doesn't suck like they are Russel Wilson, eventually a long term quality QB would become a better option than starting over with a rookie once again.
You guys should also remember that Goffs was son a year before the contract. He was a near MVP player. After he signed he instantly looked awful but based on his play, the co tract was a bargain.
Goff started off his career poorly. Then came out of nowhere to put up a monster season. Kind of like Case Keenum. Then faded back into obscurity.
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Re: Cousins signs 2 year extension (Details)

Post by StumpHunter » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:30 am

Upon further review...

The extension is not what any of us think it is. It is still a bad contract if he plays for us in 2021, but him playing for us beyond 2020 is no guarantee.

Utilizing my vast knowledge of NFL contracts, most of which comes from perusing sports message boards, I believe the Vikings setup Cousin's extension so that they could get something in return for him in a trade if 2020 doesn't work out.

Here is a realistic scenario that makes this work:

Let's say the team is worse after losing 4 starters that were a large part of their success last year, 7 starters overall. They win 5-8 games, and Cousins has a similar year to 2018, a lot of meaningless passing yards and TDs, very little to show for in the W column. It isn't all his fault, he has a very young WR corp outside of Theilen, and the defense is worse, but it is clear he is not providing the value his contract requires.

The Vikings can then turn around and find a team desperate for a QB, and low and behold, the 9ers are looking to move on from Jimmy G. and the Jets have just had another disappointing year with Sam Darnold. Looks like we have two teams who really like Cousins and who struggle to make good QB decisions. The perfect combination for offloading our QB and getting something good in return.

The Numbers:
The Vikings essentially gave Cousins a fully guaranteed 5 year extension...unless they trade him following this season.

In 2021, if Cousins is traded prior to the 3rd day of the league year, we owe him 20 million in dead cap and are free and clear from his contract after that. That seems like a big number, but remember, 10 million of that is part of his contract from this year. So essentially it is only a 10 million cap hit.

The team that trades for him then gets him for 21 million fully guaranteed, which isn't a horrible number for a starting QB these days (unfortunately), and 35 million in 2022 with 0 guarantees. That is a fantastic contract to try Cousins out for a year and then have leverage to force him into a reasonable extension (something we have never had).

What we could get:

Probably just a 2nd, but a 2nd that is likely in the top of the round.

What does this mean:
The Vikings can still draft a QB this year. The odds aren't great it will happen, but if somehow Tua falls or the Vikings like Love or some other borderline late first round guy, they could take him, have him sit for a year and trade Cousins in 2021. They would then have a ton of cap to work with in 2021 and 2022, an extra 2nd rounder in 2021, and a QB with actual potential for greatness.



If this is indeed why the contract was structured this way, and I can't think of any other reason it would be, I, and some others, have been giving way too much crap to Rick for this extension. It also makes me believe we are a lot closer to a full rebuild, since this extension kind of fits that mold now.
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Re: Cousins signs 2 year extension (Details)

Post by Mothman » Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:51 am

StumpHunter wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:30 am
Upon further review...

The extension is not what any of us think it is. It is still a bad contract if he plays for us in 2021, but him playing for us beyond 2020 is no guarantee.

Utilizing my vast knowledge of NFL contracts, most of which comes from perusing sports message boards, I believe the Vikings setup Cousin's extension so that they could get something in return for him in a trade if 2020 doesn't work out.

Here is a realistic scenario that makes this work:

Let's say the team is worse after losing 4 starters that were a large part of their success last year, 7 starters overall. They win 5-8 games, and Cousins has a similar year to 2018, a lot of meaningless passing yards and TDs, very little to show for in the W column. It isn't all his fault, he has a very young WR corp outside of Theilen, and the defense is worse, but it is clear he is not providing the value his contract requires.

The Vikings can then turn around and find a team desperate for a QB, and low and behold, the 9ers are looking to move on from Jimmy G. and the Jets have just had another disappointing year with Sam Darnold. Looks like we have two teams who really like Cousins and who struggle to make good QB decisions. The perfect combination for offloading our QB and getting something good in return.

The Numbers:
The Vikings essentially gave Cousins a fully guaranteed 5 year extension...unless they trade him following this season.

In 2021, if Cousins is traded prior to the 3rd day of the league year, we owe him 20 million in dead cap and are free and clear from his contract after that. That seems like a big number, but remember, 10 million of that is part of his contract from this year. So essentially it is only a 10 million cap hit.

The team that trades for him then gets him for 21 million fully guaranteed, which isn't a horrible number for a starting QB these days (unfortunately), and 35 million in 2022 with 0 guarantees. That is a fantastic contract to try Cousins out for a year and then have leverage to force him into a reasonable extension (something we have never had).


I think I'm missing something. Would the leverage lie in the lack of guaranteed money for 2022?

What we could get:

Probably just a 2nd, but a 2nd that is likely in the top of the round.
What does this mean:
The Vikings can still draft a QB this year. The odds aren't great it will happen, but if somehow Tua falls or the Vikings like Love or some other borderline late first round guy, they could take him, have him sit for a year and trade Cousins in 2021. They would then have a ton of cap to work with in 2021 and 2022, an extra 2nd rounder in 2021, and a QB with actual potential for greatness.

If this is indeed why the contract was structured this way, and I can't think of any other reason it would be, I, and some others, have been giving way too much crap to Rick for this extension. It also makes me believe we are a lot closer to a full rebuild, since this extension kind of fits that mold now.
Interesting post. There's definitely food for thought in there. It's hard for me to imagine a team giving the Vikings a second round pick for Cousins and that substantial contract in 2021 if the Vikings were to have the kind of 2020 season you described above. Then again, teams desperate for a QB can make surprising decisions.

I find it very hard to imagine Rick Spielman drafting a QB in the first three rounds of the upcoming draft but maybe that's his plan.

Unless circumstances change, it's hard for me to imagine Cousins receiving $35M in salary in 2022 so he likely has a 2 year deal that would be renegotiated again after 2021 (either by the Vikes or a trade partner that takes on the contract).
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Re: Cousins signs 2 year extension (Details)

Post by StumpHunter » Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:42 am

Mothman wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:51 am
StumpHunter wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:30 am
Upon further review...

The extension is not what any of us think it is. It is still a bad contract if he plays for us in 2021, but him playing for us beyond 2020 is no guarantee.

Utilizing my vast knowledge of NFL contracts, most of which comes from perusing sports message boards, I believe the Vikings setup Cousin's extension so that they could get something in return for him in a trade if 2020 doesn't work out.

Here is a realistic scenario that makes this work:

Let's say the team is worse after losing 4 starters that were a large part of their success last year, 7 starters overall. They win 5-8 games, and Cousins has a similar year to 2018, a lot of meaningless passing yards and TDs, very little to show for in the W column. It isn't all his fault, he has a very young WR corp outside of Theilen, and the defense is worse, but it is clear he is not providing the value his contract requires.

The Vikings can then turn around and find a team desperate for a QB, and low and behold, the 9ers are looking to move on from Jimmy G. and the Jets have just had another disappointing year with Sam Darnold. Looks like we have two teams who really like Cousins and who struggle to make good QB decisions. The perfect combination for offloading our QB and getting something good in return.

The Numbers:
The Vikings essentially gave Cousins a fully guaranteed 5 year extension...unless they trade him following this season.

In 2021, if Cousins is traded prior to the 3rd day of the league year, we owe him 20 million in dead cap and are free and clear from his contract after that. That seems like a big number, but remember, 10 million of that is part of his contract from this year. So essentially it is only a 10 million cap hit.

The team that trades for him then gets him for 21 million fully guaranteed, which isn't a horrible number for a starting QB these days (unfortunately), and 35 million in 2022 with 0 guarantees. That is a fantastic contract to try Cousins out for a year and then have leverage to force him into a reasonable extension (something we have never had).


I think I'm missing something. Would the leverage lie in the lack of guaranteed money for 2022?

What we could get:

Probably just a 2nd, but a 2nd that is likely in the top of the round.
What does this mean:
The Vikings can still draft a QB this year. The odds aren't great it will happen, but if somehow Tua falls or the Vikings like Love or some other borderline late first round guy, they could take him, have him sit for a year and trade Cousins in 2021. They would then have a ton of cap to work with in 2021 and 2022, an extra 2nd rounder in 2021, and a QB with actual potential for greatness.

If this is indeed why the contract was structured this way, and I can't think of any other reason it would be, I, and some others, have been giving way too much crap to Rick for this extension. It also makes me believe we are a lot closer to a full rebuild, since this extension kind of fits that mold now.
Interesting post. There's definitely food for thought in there. It's hard for me to imagine a team giving the Vikings a second round pick for Cousins and that substantial contract in 2021 if the Vikings were to have the kind of 2020 season you described above. Then again, teams desperate for a QB can make surprising decisions.

I find it very hard to imagine Rick Spielman drafting a QB in the first three rounds of the upcoming draft but maybe that's his plan.

Unless circumstances change, it's hard for me to imagine Cousins receiving $35M in salary in 2022 so he likely has a 2 year deal that would be renegotiated again after 2021 (either by the Vikes or a trade partner that takes on the contract).
If the Vikings traded him in after the 2020 season and before the 3rd day of the league year his Contract would be this for his new team:
21 million fully guaranteed in 2021.
35 million with 0 guarantees in 2022.

So the team that traded for him would get him for 21 million in 2021, which is less than 10% of the salary cap in 2021. They would then have the option to cut him 2022 and save themselves 35 million in cap, pay him 35 million in 2022, or renegotiate a contract with the added leverage of him having 0 guarantees in 2022.

I think a desperate team who makes poor QB decisions would give up a second for that. We gave up a first for Bradford who was on a similar 2 year deal (albeit his second year of that contract was lower) and Cousins is a far better QB than Bradford.
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Re: Cousins signs 2 year extension (Details)

Post by VikingsVictorious » Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:32 pm

Here's a post I saw on Talk Vikes.

Tom Sykes
2020 NFL free agency's best contracts: Cousins extension smart
By Gregg Rosenthal
Around The NFL Editor

Kirk Cousins, quarterback, Minnesota Vikings: It was only a few years ago that folks were chortling over the Vikings' decision to pay Cousins $30 million per year. By the time he gets to the end of the extension he agreed to as this year's free agency period kicked off, the Vikings could be seen as forward-thinking. I like the new two-year, $66 million deal, which is set to go through the 2022 season, for a few reasons. It opens up $10 million in cap space while only adding one additional guaranteed year for Cousins. (The Vikings could get out of the contract after the 2021 season if they wanted.) It also prevents a scenario like the Redskins once faced with Cousins, who was constantly asked about his future with Washington over three consecutive contract years from 2015 to '17, thanks to that team's repeated use of the franchise tag. Minnesota decisively believes that Cousins is a franchise quarterback, so it's better for the Vikings to make a move now rather than wind up paying much more later, like the Cowboys will with Dak Prescott, who had to be tagged this year after reaching the end of his rookie deal without an extension. By the time Cousins reaches the end of this deal, it won't be a surprise if he's outside the top 10 in quarterback salaries.

Nice to hear a non-"way overpaid Cousins contract' quote.
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Re: Cousins signs 2 year extension (Details)

Post by VikingsVictorious » Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:38 pm

StumpHunter wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:30 am
Upon further review...

The extension is not what any of us think it is. It is still a bad contract if he plays for us in 2021, but him playing for us beyond 2020 is no guarantee.

Utilizing my vast knowledge of NFL contracts, most of which comes from perusing sports message boards, I believe the Vikings setup Cousin's extension so that they could get something in return for him in a trade if 2020 doesn't work out.

Here is a realistic scenario that makes this work:

Let's say the team is worse after losing 4 starters that were a large part of their success last year, 7 starters overall. They win 5-8 games, and Cousins has a similar year to 2018, a lot of meaningless passing yards and TDs, very little to show for in the W column. It isn't all his fault, he has a very young WR corp outside of Theilen, and the defense is worse, but it is clear he is not providing the value his contract requires.

The Vikings can then turn around and find a team desperate for a QB, and low and behold, the 9ers are looking to move on from Jimmy G. and the Jets have just had another disappointing year with Sam Darnold. Looks like we have two teams who really like Cousins and who struggle to make good QB decisions. The perfect combination for offloading our QB and getting something good in return.

The Numbers:
The Vikings essentially gave Cousins a fully guaranteed 5 year extension...unless they trade him following this season.

In 2021, if Cousins is traded prior to the 3rd day of the league year, we owe him 20 million in dead cap and are free and clear from his contract after that. That seems like a big number, but remember, 10 million of that is part of his contract from this year. So essentially it is only a 10 million cap hit.

The team that trades for him then gets him for 21 million fully guaranteed, which isn't a horrible number for a starting QB these days (unfortunately), and 35 million in 2022 with 0 guarantees. That is a fantastic contract to try Cousins out for a year and then have leverage to force him into a reasonable extension (something we have never had).

What we could get:

Probably just a 2nd, but a 2nd that is likely in the top of the round.

What does this mean:
The Vikings can still draft a QB this year. The odds aren't great it will happen, but if somehow Tua falls or the Vikings like Love or some other borderline late first round guy, they could take him, have him sit for a year and trade Cousins in 2021. They would then have a ton of cap to work with in 2021 and 2022, an extra 2nd rounder in 2021, and a QB with actual potential for greatness.



If this is indeed why the contract was structured this way, and I can't think of any other reason it would be, I, and some others, have been giving way too much crap to Rick for this extension. It also makes me believe we are a lot closer to a full rebuild, since this extension kind of fits that mold now.
Cousins is fully worthy of the contract if he plays it out with us, but it is designed very well for us if we choose to move on. I reposted something similar from Gregg Rosenthal just before reading this.
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Re: Cousins signs 2 year extension (Details)

Post by fiestavike » Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:47 pm

StumpHunter wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:30 am
Upon further review...

The extension is not what any of us think it is. It is still a bad contract if he plays for us in 2021, but him playing for us beyond 2020 is no guarantee.

Utilizing my vast knowledge of NFL contracts, most of which comes from perusing sports message boards, I believe the Vikings setup Cousin's extension so that they could get something in return for him in a trade if 2020 doesn't work out.

Here is a realistic scenario that makes this work:

Let's say the team is worse after losing 4 starters that were a large part of their success last year, 7 starters overall. They win 5-8 games, and Cousins has a similar year to 2018, a lot of meaningless passing yards and TDs, very little to show for in the W column. It isn't all his fault, he has a very young WR corp outside of Theilen, and the defense is worse, but it is clear he is not providing the value his contract requires.

The Vikings can then turn around and find a team desperate for a QB, and low and behold, the 9ers are looking to move on from Jimmy G. and the Jets have just had another disappointing year with Sam Darnold. Looks like we have two teams who really like Cousins and who struggle to make good QB decisions. The perfect combination for offloading our QB and getting something good in return.

The Numbers:
The Vikings essentially gave Cousins a fully guaranteed 5 year extension...unless they trade him following this season.

In 2021, if Cousins is traded prior to the 3rd day of the league year, we owe him 20 million in dead cap and are free and clear from his contract after that. That seems like a big number, but remember, 10 million of that is part of his contract from this year. So essentially it is only a 10 million cap hit.

The team that trades for him then gets him for 21 million fully guaranteed, which isn't a horrible number for a starting QB these days (unfortunately), and 35 million in 2022 with 0 guarantees. That is a fantastic contract to try Cousins out for a year and then have leverage to force him into a reasonable extension (something we have never had).

What we could get:

Probably just a 2nd, but a 2nd that is likely in the top of the round.

What does this mean:
The Vikings can still draft a QB this year. The odds aren't great it will happen, but if somehow Tua falls or the Vikings like Love or some other borderline late first round guy, they could take him, have him sit for a year and trade Cousins in 2021. They would then have a ton of cap to work with in 2021 and 2022, an extra 2nd rounder in 2021, and a QB with actual potential for greatness.



If this is indeed why the contract was structured this way, and I can't think of any other reason it would be, I, and some others, have been giving way too much crap to Rick for this extension. It also makes me believe we are a lot closer to a full rebuild, since this extension kind of fits that mold now.
Very, Very interesting. It makes a lot of questionable decisions perhaps come into focus.

Let's assume that the Vikings don't believe Kirk Cousins is a premier QB. They want to prepare a contingency plan, and they don't want to bottom out this year by starting Shawn Mannion (or fill in the blank). What would you want to do in that case? Draft a franchise QB. You trade Diggs for draft capital. You franchise and dangle Anthony Harris (not a move the Vikings have typically made). If they got the 2nd rounder the were seeking, they might be getting close to enough capital to move up into the top 5 without having to surrender any of next years picks.

Going along with that, you likely recognize that the window for your veteran heavy team is going to be closed by the time the rookie QB you draft is ready to start. That means stockpiling picks and cutting players who will be on the decline by that point is a logical move.

Where it has appeared that we were making contradictory moves by both committing to a QB in a win now move, and at the same time that we are gutting the veteran presence on the team, it may be that the commitment to said QB is more of a feint. Its also an insurance plan in case rookie QB who gets drafted simply doesn't work out, leaving you with two more years to figure out what to do at the QB position.

If all goes well, anything they get for Kirk becomes the cherry on top, as simply shedding his contract would have real value to the team going forward at that point.
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Mothman
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Re: Cousins signs 2 year extension (Details)

Post by Mothman » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:32 pm

StumpHunter wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:42 am
If the Vikings traded him in after the 2020 season and before the 3rd day of the league year his Contract would be this for his new team:
21 million fully guaranteed in 2021.
35 million with 0 guarantees in 2022.

So the team that traded for him would get him for 21 million in 2021, which is less than 10% of the salary cap in 2021. They would then have the option to cut him 2022 and save themselves 35 million in cap, pay him 35 million in 2022, or renegotiate a contract with the added leverage of him having 0 guarantees in 2022.

I think a desperate team who makes poor QB decisions would give up a second for that. We gave up a first for Bradford who was on a similar 2 year deal (albeit his second year of that contract was lower) and Cousins is a far better QB than Bradford.
Thanks for clarifying what you meant. I appreciate it.
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Pondering Her Percy
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Re: Cousins signs 2 year extension (Details)

Post by Pondering Her Percy » Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:20 pm

This is exactly why I’ve been saying cousins contract isn’t nearly as bad as everyone made it out to be. If anyone, including myself thought that he would be raking in $31million in 2021 and $45 million in 2022, we’d be crazy. Those just aren’t realistic numbers for a QB outside of guys like Mahomes. I mean we’ve been paying him close to $30 million a year on his last deal. $45 million is absurd. The main reason for the extension was to drastically lower this years cap hit to get us somewhat out of a hole. I believe I explained that in my mock offseason when I knew there were guys that wanted nothing to do with an extension.

Bottom line was, we were on the hook this coming year with his previous contract no matter what. The only ways of getting out of that $30+ million cap hit was to either have him take a pay cut or extend him. He wasn’t going to take a pay cut. So the only option was to extend him so we could change the cap hit this year. In my mock I had the extension saving us $7 million. Instead it saved us $10. The extension was a must unless we wanted to soak $31 million which would’ve lost us out on keeping Harris. I feel like guys thought I wanted to extend cousins because I think he’s some great QB. That was never the case, extending him was just the logical move
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