PHP's Early Mock Offseason

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StumpHunter
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Re: PHP's Early Mock Offseason

Post by StumpHunter » Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:13 pm

Pondering Her Percy wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 3:13 pm
VikingLord wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:41 pm


A very expensive gamble for a team that has some dire needs along the OL and DL and could use some depth in the secondary and at WR too.

I am not a big fan of going all in for a savior. The time the Vikings have tried it it hasn't worked out well, and it seems to work out relatively rarely for most teams. You're gambling on something that can't be known, no matter how sure it might look.
Agreed. This is why I ultimately decided to extend Cousins in this mock because we need a lot more than just depth in the secondary, our OL is still a mess and our DL could very well be in a mess if Griffen and Joseph are gone. There is a very good chance we are extremely weak at one of those positions next year if we not only take a QB in the first round but trade away a bunch to do it.
You cannot pass on a great QB prospect for the chance to draft an Olineman or CB. Next season we would have a ton of cap after jettisoning Cousin's cap hit and could fill some holes in FAs. That would more than makeup for losing next year's first.
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Re: PHP's Early Mock Offseason

Post by VikingLord » Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:44 pm

StumpHunter wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 4:49 pm
VikingLord wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:41 pm


A very expensive gamble for a team that has some dire needs along the OL and DL and could use some depth in the secondary and at WR too.

I am not a big fan of going all in for a savior. The time the Vikings have tried it it hasn't worked out well, and it seems to work out relatively rarely for most teams. You're gambling on something that can't be known, no matter how sure it might look.
I don't think the Vikings have ever gone all in on a QB. Not like KC did.

If you look back at the teams that have traded up with significant picks to get their guy, it has actually gone pretty well recently:

Philly - won the SB 2 seasons later
LA - went to the SB 3 seasons later
KC - won the SB 3 seasons later
OK, but Philly didn't win the SB with the guy they went all-in on. They won with the equivalent of a Case Keenum who just got exceptionally hot at the right time.
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Re: PHP's Early Mock Offseason

Post by StumpHunter » Tue Feb 04, 2020 8:28 pm

VikingLord wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:44 pm
StumpHunter wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 4:49 pm


I don't think the Vikings have ever gone all in on a QB. Not like KC did.

If you look back at the teams that have traded up with significant picks to get their guy, it has actually gone pretty well recently:

Philly - won the SB 2 seasons later
LA - went to the SB 3 seasons later
KC - won the SB 3 seasons later
OK, but Philly didn't win the SB with the guy they went all-in on. They won with the equivalent of a Case Keenum who just got exceptionally hot at the right time.
True, but he did play well enough in the regular season to help his get team a first round bye and home field throughout.

Regardless, the trade they made didn't set them back.
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Re: PHP's Early Mock Offseason

Post by S197 » Tue Feb 04, 2020 8:43 pm

Tua is only an option if he falls due to injury concerns. You never know, we've seen many years guys are in the green room much longer than expected. I'd be okay trading up to around 20 but if he goes earlier I'm alright with letting him go.
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Re: PHP's Early Mock Offseason

Post by Pondering Her Percy » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:11 am

StumpHunter wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:13 pm
Pondering Her Percy wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 3:13 pm


Agreed. This is why I ultimately decided to extend Cousins in this mock because we need a lot more than just depth in the secondary, our OL is still a mess and our DL could very well be in a mess if Griffen and Joseph are gone. There is a very good chance we are extremely weak at one of those positions next year if we not only take a QB in the first round but trade away a bunch to do it.
You cannot pass on a great QB prospect for the chance to draft an Olineman or CB. Next season we would have a ton of cap after jettisoning Cousin's cap hit and could fill some holes in FAs. That would more than makeup for losing next year's first.
I get what you're saying but there is a very high chance that Burrow, Tua and Herbert all go inside the top 10. Look at the teams picking inside the top 10 that need a QB. Cincy is taking Burrow #1. That leaves 2 top QBs with 9 picks to go. Those picks include teams like Miami, LA Chargers, Carolina (possibility Newton is gone) and Jacksonville. Then you have to consider teams just outside the top 10 like Indy and Tampa Bay that are also in need. Many mocks have Tua and Herbert going 5th and 6th to the Dolphins and Chargers.

The 2017 draft class, at the time, wasnt considered nearly as strong as this coming years draft IMO. I mean Trubisky going 2nd overall should say enough. Given the need for a QB in the top 10 and even just outside of it, I dont see these QBs falling. And the next question is, does anyone look at guys like Tua and Herbert as highly as you'd look at Watson or Mahomes? Granted I think Mahomes and Watson were somewhat "overlooked" in 2017. Watson was a little more well known because of the stage he played on but everyone had their questions including myself. I think he's a good NFL QB but I think he's also a little overrated. As for Mahomes, he didnt have near the crowd backing him. He was kind of that wildcard type QB like a Drew Lock. Most thought he had a shot to go in the first round, had all the tools but it all depended on if someone was going to take the chance on him that early. And on top of it, you had serious questions if he would be a legitimate NFL starter or not. I kind of look at Herbert the same way this year. Has all the tools, he could fall a bit, etc. But again, does he have the tools to be a legit NFL starter?

In the end, they are two drastically different draft classes. Sorry I kind of went off the rails there a bit but just laying out everything that came to mind in this instance. I dont think we should pass IF the price is right on one of those 3 (or 2 given Burrow will be gone). Trading up anywhere from pick 10-20 is one thing. Trading up from 25 to get inside the top 10, that's a whole different ball game when it comes to how much we will have to give up.
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Re: PHP's Early Mock Offseason

Post by StumpHunter » Wed Feb 05, 2020 12:10 pm

Pondering Her Percy wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:11 am
StumpHunter wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:13 pm


You cannot pass on a great QB prospect for the chance to draft an Olineman or CB. Next season we would have a ton of cap after jettisoning Cousin's cap hit and could fill some holes in FAs. That would more than makeup for losing next year's first.
I get what you're saying but there is a very high chance that Burrow, Tua and Herbert all go inside the top 10. Look at the teams picking inside the top 10 that need a QB. Cincy is taking Burrow #1. That leaves 2 top QBs with 9 picks to go. Those picks include teams like Miami, LA Chargers, Carolina (possibility Newton is gone) and Jacksonville. Then you have to consider teams just outside the top 10 like Indy and Tampa Bay that are also in need. Many mocks have Tua and Herbert going 5th and 6th to the Dolphins and Chargers.

The 2017 draft class, at the time, wasnt considered nearly as strong as this coming years draft IMO. I mean Trubisky going 2nd overall should say enough. Given the need for a QB in the top 10 and even just outside of it, I dont see these QBs falling. And the next question is, does anyone look at guys like Tua and Herbert as highly as you'd look at Watson or Mahomes? Granted I think Mahomes and Watson were somewhat "overlooked" in 2017. Watson was a little more well known because of the stage he played on but everyone had their questions including myself. I think he's a good NFL QB but I think he's also a little overrated. As for Mahomes, he didnt have near the crowd backing him. He was kind of that wildcard type QB like a Drew Lock. Most thought he had a shot to go in the first round, had all the tools but it all depended on if someone was going to take the chance on him that early. And on top of it, you had serious questions if he would be a legitimate NFL starter or not. I kind of look at Herbert the same way this year. Has all the tools, he could fall a bit, etc. But again, does he have the tools to be a legit NFL starter?

In the end, they are two drastically different draft classes. Sorry I kind of went off the rails there a bit but just laying out everything that came to mind in this instance. I dont think we should pass IF the price is right on one of those 3 (or 2 given Burrow will be gone). Trading up anywhere from pick 10-20 is one thing. Trading up from 25 to get inside the top 10, that's a whole different ball game when it comes to how much we will have to give up.
I agree that not everyone was on board the Mahomes train. Andy Reid was though, liked what he saw, and did whatever it took, within reason, to get him.

If Zimmer or Rick love Tua, or Herbert, or Love, or Eason, they should do the same. It does not matter what fans or draft experts think about a QB, all that matters is what the coach and GM feel about them. Rick and Zim could hate all the QBs in this draft, but at least take a look and kick the tires to make sure you are not passing over that next Mahomes.

If they extend Cousins for what he realistically will want, that won't happen this year, next year, and probably not until 2023 at the earliest.
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Re: PHP's Early Mock Offseason

Post by CharVike » Sat Feb 08, 2020 11:53 am

StumpHunter wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 12:10 pm
Pondering Her Percy wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:11 am


I get what you're saying but there is a very high chance that Burrow, Tua and Herbert all go inside the top 10. Look at the teams picking inside the top 10 that need a QB. Cincy is taking Burrow #1. That leaves 2 top QBs with 9 picks to go. Those picks include teams like Miami, LA Chargers, Carolina (possibility Newton is gone) and Jacksonville. Then you have to consider teams just outside the top 10 like Indy and Tampa Bay that are also in need. Many mocks have Tua and Herbert going 5th and 6th to the Dolphins and Chargers.

The 2017 draft class, at the time, wasnt considered nearly as strong as this coming years draft IMO. I mean Trubisky going 2nd overall should say enough. Given the need for a QB in the top 10 and even just outside of it, I dont see these QBs falling. And the next question is, does anyone look at guys like Tua and Herbert as highly as you'd look at Watson or Mahomes? Granted I think Mahomes and Watson were somewhat "overlooked" in 2017. Watson was a little more well known because of the stage he played on but everyone had their questions including myself. I think he's a good NFL QB but I think he's also a little overrated. As for Mahomes, he didnt have near the crowd backing him. He was kind of that wildcard type QB like a Drew Lock. Most thought he had a shot to go in the first round, had all the tools but it all depended on if someone was going to take the chance on him that early. And on top of it, you had serious questions if he would be a legitimate NFL starter or not. I kind of look at Herbert the same way this year. Has all the tools, he could fall a bit, etc. But again, does he have the tools to be a legit NFL starter?

In the end, they are two drastically different draft classes. Sorry I kind of went off the rails there a bit but just laying out everything that came to mind in this instance. I dont think we should pass IF the price is right on one of those 3 (or 2 given Burrow will be gone). Trading up anywhere from pick 10-20 is one thing. Trading up from 25 to get inside the top 10, that's a whole different ball game when it comes to how much we will have to give up.
I agree that not everyone was on board the Mahomes train. Andy Reid was though, liked what he saw, and did whatever it took, within reason, to get him.

If Zimmer or Rick love Tua, or Herbert, or Love, or Eason, they should do the same. It does not matter what fans or draft experts think about a QB, all that matters is what the coach and GM feel about them. Rick and Zim could hate all the QBs in this draft, but at least take a look and kick the tires to make sure you are not passing over that next Mahomes.

If they extend Cousins for what he realistically will want, that won't happen this year, next year, and probably not until 2023 at the earliest.
We will need to extend Cousins. We have nothing in the hole and a top guy won't drop to us. That's the story right now. But Speilman needs to keep his eyes open.
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Re: PHP's Early Mock Offseason

Post by StumpHunter » Sat Feb 08, 2020 5:58 pm

CharVike wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 11:53 am
StumpHunter wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 12:10 pm

I agree that not everyone was on board the Mahomes train. Andy Reid was though, liked what he saw, and did whatever it took, within reason, to get him.

If Zimmer or Rick love Tua, or Herbert, or Love, or Eason, they should do the same. It does not matter what fans or draft experts think about a QB, all that matters is what the coach and GM feel about them. Rick and Zim could hate all the QBs in this draft, but at least take a look and kick the tires to make sure you are not passing over that next Mahomes.

If they extend Cousins for what he realistically will want, that won't happen this year, next year, and probably not until 2023 at the earliest.
We will need to extend Cousins. We have nothing in the hole and a top guy won't drop to us. That's the story right now. But Speilman needs to keep his eyes open.
Being desperate for a QB in the draft is a bad spot to be in. A worse spot is being locked into a QB who doesn't help you win a SB and passing over greatness because your guy is good enough to keep the GM and HC employed a few more years.

I am all for extending Cousins for what he is worth. I just know that isn't realistic.
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Re: PHP's Early Mock Offseason

Post by CharVike » Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:55 pm

StumpHunter wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 5:58 pm
CharVike wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 11:53 am

We will need to extend Cousins. We have nothing in the hole and a top guy won't drop to us. That's the story right now. But Speilman needs to keep his eyes open.
Being desperate for a QB in the draft is a bad spot to be in. A worse spot is being locked into a QB who doesn't help you win a SB and passing over greatness because your guy is good enough to keep the GM and HC employed a few more years.

I am all for extending Cousins for what he is worth. I just know that isn't realistic.
What a QB is worth is hard to judge. If they want a competitive team they will need to sign him. If our team crashes in 2020 then he will be gone and we will be in rebuild. I want a SB also. I've been watching / following since 1970. Grap lead his team to a SB and I think Cousins is better than him. If a QB is there and Speilman likes him that needs to be the pick.
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Re: PHP's Early Mock Offseason

Post by VikingLord » Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:43 pm

CharVike wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:55 pm

What a QB is worth is hard to judge. If they want a competitive team they will need to sign him. If our team crashes in 2020 then he will be gone and we will be in rebuild. I want a SB also. I've been watching / following since 1970. Grap lead his team to a SB and I think Cousins is better than him. If a QB is there and Speilman likes him that needs to be the pick.
You think San Fran made the Super Bowl because of Jimmy G?

I respectfully disagree.

I think San Fran made the Super Bowl in spite of Jimmy G.

Further, I think they lost the Super Bowl they made because, much like Cousins, Jimmy G's inability to rise to the challenge when San Fran went down late ultimately proved their undoing. With a limited QB it is difficult to come back.

Actually, I should give Cousins more credit than that because he has shown the ability to mount a comeback from a large deficit. With Cousins, so much of it seems to be his mental approach and attitude. He tends to play conservatively for large stretches of games, but in many games where the Vikings got down by a large margin in the first half or first three quarters, Cousins suddenly lets it go and when he does that the offense can score points quickly. I just wish he'd play entire games like that.

With Jimmy G, I don't think I've seen him do that, or, if he has done it, it's not very often. Some of that is attributable to how San Fran never got that far behind in most games due to their effective running game and outstanding defense, but Jimmy G seems pretty limited in terms of what he can do and his ability to make decisions under pressure.
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Re: PHP's Early Mock Offseason

Post by CharVike » Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:49 am

VikingLord wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:43 pm
CharVike wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:55 pm

What a QB is worth is hard to judge. If they want a competitive team they will need to sign him. If our team crashes in 2020 then he will be gone and we will be in rebuild. I want a SB also. I've been watching / following since 1970. Grap lead his team to a SB and I think Cousins is better than him. If a QB is there and Speilman likes him that needs to be the pick.
You think San Fran made the Super Bowl because of Jimmy G?

I respectfully disagree.

I think San Fran made the Super Bowl in spite of Jimmy G.

Further, I think they lost the Super Bowl they made because, much like Cousins, Jimmy G's inability to rise to the challenge when San Fran went down late ultimately proved their undoing. With a limited QB it is difficult to come back.

Actually, I should give Cousins more credit than that because he has shown the ability to mount a comeback from a large deficit. With Cousins, so much of it seems to be his mental approach and attitude. He tends to play conservatively for large stretches of games, but in many games where the Vikings got down by a large margin in the first half or first three quarters, Cousins suddenly lets it go and when he does that the offense can score points quickly. I just wish he'd play entire games like that.

With Jimmy G, I don't think I've seen him do that, or, if he has done it, it's not very often. Some of that is attributable to how San Fran never got that far behind in most games due to their effective running game and outstanding defense, but Jimmy G seems pretty limited in terms of what he can do and his ability to make decisions under pressure.
The 49ers made the SB because that D played lights out in the playoffs. If our D played like that we would have been in. I posted it before but I think Cousins is better than Grap.
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Re: PHP's Early Mock Offseason

Post by StumpHunter » Mon Feb 10, 2020 7:46 am

VikingLord wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:43 pm
CharVike wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:55 pm

What a QB is worth is hard to judge. If they want a competitive team they will need to sign him. If our team crashes in 2020 then he will be gone and we will be in rebuild. I want a SB also. I've been watching / following since 1970. Grap lead his team to a SB and I think Cousins is better than him. If a QB is there and Speilman likes him that needs to be the pick.
You think San Fran made the Super Bowl because of Jimmy G?

I respectfully disagree.

I think San Fran made the Super Bowl in spite of Jimmy G.

Further, I think they lost the Super Bowl they made because, much like Cousins, Jimmy G's inability to rise to the challenge when San Fran went down late ultimately proved their undoing. With a limited QB it is difficult to come back.

Actually, I should give Cousins more credit than that because he has shown the ability to mount a comeback from a large deficit. With Cousins, so much of it seems to be his mental approach and attitude. He tends to play conservatively for large stretches of games, but in many games where the Vikings got down by a large margin in the first half or first three quarters, Cousins suddenly lets it go and when he does that the offense can score points quickly. I just wish he'd play entire games like that.

With Jimmy G, I don't think I've seen him do that, or, if he has done it, it's not very often. Some of that is attributable to how San Fran never got that far behind in most games due to their effective running game and outstanding defense, but Jimmy G seems pretty limited in terms of what he can do and his ability to make decisions under pressure.
I wouldn't tout Cousins' ability to mount a comeback as one of his strengths. Since becoming a Viking, he has the fewest 4th quarter comebacks and game winning drives of any full time starting QB in the NFL. Jimmy G. has 4 each in 7 fewer starts. For pretty much all of the past two seasons, if the Vikings are down in the 4th, the Vikings are losing the football game.
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Re: PHP's Early Mock Offseason

Post by VikingLord » Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:25 am

StumpHunter wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 7:46 am
I wouldn't tout Cousins' ability to mount a comeback as one of his strengths. Since becoming a Viking, he has the fewest 4th quarter comebacks and game winning drives of any full time starting QB in the NFL. Jimmy G. has 4 each in 7 fewer starts. For pretty much all of the past two seasons, if the Vikings are down in the 4th, the Vikings are losing the football game.
I was referring more to the way he plays when down big late rather than the result he gets. If he played the same way throughout the game, my bet is the Vikings aren't as far behind or even ahead at that point.

Cousins seems to be able to throw it around and down the field pretty well when he's not overly cautious or over-thinking things.
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Re: PHP's Early Mock Offseason

Post by halfgiz » Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:36 am

What good QB is going to drop to the 25th pick in the draft?
We need to go for DL/OL.
We do need to try and pick up a better backup QB this season.

I also question rather we can afford Cousins with out breaking the bank. Last I heard is agent was looking at 35 mil a season. Kind of crazy money for a run first team.
Guess we will find out if Cousins is after money or wants to stick with the Vikings.
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Re: PHP's Early Mock Offseason

Post by StumpHunter » Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:53 am

halfgiz wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:36 am
What good QB is going to drop to the 25th pick in the draft?
We need to go for DL/OL.
We do need to try and pick up a better backup QB this season.

I also question rather we can afford Cousins with out breaking the bank. Last I heard is agent was looking at 35 mil a season. Kind of crazy money for a run first team.
Guess we will find out if Cousins is after money or wants to stick with the Vikings.
That isn't really fair to Cousins. Pretty much all QBs, from Rodgers to Wilson, milk every penny they can get from their team. Brady is the exception and in a very different spot than Cousins. I won't blame him for trying to break the bank once again and I am thinking he pushes for a 3 year, fully guaranteed 105 million contract.
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