My Plan to Fix the Vikings

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StumpHunter
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Re: My Plan to Fix the Vikings

Post by StumpHunter » Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:36 am

Mothman wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:22 am
StumpHunter wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:41 am
I understand your frustration with people bringing up time to throw, it proves the QB was the problem, more than it was the Oline. We had one of the best WR tandems in football, I don’t think them getting open was the problem.
Sometimes it was...

One of the issues I'm seeing with arguments about this subject here on the board is that there was no singular problem so there is no singular answer.

The Vikings o-line did not have a good season. They are not a good line. They are A problem but not the only problem.

Cousins sometimes holds onto the ball too long. That is also a problem. Vikings receivers don't always get open so sometimes that's a problem too and it means Cousins has to either hold onto the ball until a receiver comes open, the protection breaks down or he can throw it away.

Sometimes routes develop slowly and the protection is insufficient. All of the above were factors so there's no singular issue to be resolved.

Another issue in these arguments is that averages are just averages. An average time to throw or an average ypc on the ground can look fine for a game or a season but the devil, as they say, is in the details. For example, if a QB drops back 12 times and has an average of 2.5 seconds to throw on 10 of those dropbacks but manages to go 5 seconds before getting rid of the ball on the other 2 plays, his average time to throw on those 12 plays would be 2.91 seconds but his actual time to throw on the majority of those plays was quite a bit less. I know all of you understand this but sometimes it's helpful to just look at a concrete reminder and remember that stats can be deceptive. We can draw conclusions from them but only so much.
Fix the system, fix the QB, and magically the line won’t seem so bad anymore.
Build a better line and the QB and running game will suddenly look a lot better. :)

We're not looking at a singular problem. It's a combination of factors. The Vikes need better OL play, better QB play, better playcalling, etc.
I appreciate the explanation of averages, and how with a smaller sample size you can really skew averages with large outliers.

Cousins did not throw 12 times versus the Bears however, he threw 33 times (to say nothing of his average on the year), making it much more difficult to skew towards a larger number. Especially considering he is not a scrambling QB. He is not running around for 6 seconds on any given play, buying time like Russel Wilson. He sits back in the pocket for as long as his offensive line gives him. We also have an easy comparison in Foles, who is a similarly challenged QB, playing behind a similar line, against the same opponent. A guy who got rid of the ball nearly a second faster than Cousins, while nearly doubling how far each completion traveled in the air. Did he not have any outliers Sunday?

I know Cousins wasn't the whole issue with the team. I know the guards weren't good. I know the running game could have been better. But what I hear on the radio and what I read too much of on here is this: "Cousins put up great stats, so he wasn't the problem. It was all on the Oline." That is a load of garbage. A bottom 9 offense means the QB did not have a good year. It means those "great stats" did not have a positive impact on the team, and a positive impact should be all that matters. The Oline contributed to that no doubt, but not as much as some would like you to believe.
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Re: My Plan to Fix the Vikings

Post by Mothman » Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:12 am

StumpHunter wrote:
Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:36 am
I appreciate the explanation of averages, and how with a smaller sample size you can really skew averages with large outliers.

Cousins did not throw 12 times versus the Bears however, he threw 33 times (to say nothing of his average on the year), making it much more difficult to skew towards a larger number.
I realize that but skewing toward a larger number was just meant as an example. My point was just that an average doesn't reflect nuances, it's just a hard number. It can simultaneously be true that a QB had sufficient protection on many plays in a game but that the OL's performance was also problematic because they allowed pressure too quickly too often, or in key situations.
I know Cousins wasn't the whole issue with the team. I know the guards weren't good. I know the running game could have been better. But what I hear on the radio and what I read too much of on here is this: "Cousins put up great stats, so he wasn't the problem. It was all on the Oline." That is a load of garbage.
It IS a load of garbage. I think anybody trying to pin the majority of the Vikings offensive issues on one player, unit or the coordinator might be missing the bigger picture.
A bottom 9 offense means the QB did not have a good year. It means those "great stats" did not have a positive impact on the team, and a positive impact should be all that matters. The Oline contributed to that no doubt, but not as much as some would like you to believe.
... and probably more than others would like to believe. I'm not trying to be snarky, I just don't think we need to parse blame too precisely when there's clearly plenty of it to go around. The Vikings offense needs to improve across the board.
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Re: My Plan to Fix the Vikings

Post by Pondering Her Percy » Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:50 am

808vikingsfan wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 4:59 pm
Pondering Her Percy wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 3:53 pm
AND what happened to this offense because of that MASSIVE problem in Flip......

Last years average time of possession: 3rd in the NFL at 32:07 AND 501 total rushing attempts on the year (when we only had Dalvin Cook for 3.5 games)

This years average time of possession: 25th in the NFL at 29:10 AND 357 total rushing attempts on the year (when we had Dalvin Cook for 11 games)

^^ Anyone else see a MASSIVE problem there? The lack of balance, the lack of killing clock, the pressure it puts on Cousins, the pressure it puts on our defense, etc?

After going over these numbers, we are lucky we were 8-7-1. Look at the offenses that are bottom of the league in time of possession each year.

This year the teams below us (from 26th down): Denver, KC (because they score so fast), Giants, Cleveland, Miami, Cincy, Arizona. And 2017's teams from 25th down: Oakland, SF, GB, Chicago, NYG, Buffalo, Cleveland, Cincy. Point being, the teams at the bottom are usually the teams that are towards the bottom of the NFL as a whole or offensively. KC was the only team below us this year with a better record.

Blame Kirk Cousins, blame Mike Zimmer, blame Rick Spielman, etc but the main problem this year was right what I posted above. Clearly there were other factors but time of possession and running the football is key with a successful offense. Pat Shurmur showed that. No matter who you have out there.

Given Cousins' accuracy (2nd best in the NFL this year behind only Brees), if anything Kirk Cousins inflated the time of possession this year. Definitely did not hurt it and it was still only 25th. THAT is how bad our OC effected this offense and our identity.

How does a better pure QB and a better combo of RBs finish 25th in the NFL in time of possession but a worse QB and worse combo of RBs finish 3rd in 2017?? Two main reasons....Pat Shurmur compared to John DeFillippo and a worse offensive line.
Cousins was not accurate, esp when it counted IMO. He threw a lot of short passes which inflates his completion numbers. I'm guessing the Vikings TOP was bad this year because of how bad Kirk and the offense was on 3rd down. Vikings were at the top in 3rd down conversions last year. Yes we have OL issues that need to be fixed. I'm one that thinks even with a decent OL, Cousins will still be the same, bad where it matters most (3rd down and redzone). I've seen too many times where even when he had time, Cousins still made bad decisions. Put all the OL comparisons aside, I want a QB that can throw that 4th down pass, around a defender like how Foles did. That was such an underrated throw. With how much pressure Foles was under (playoff implications), I can't see Cousins doing that. I've been waiting since the bye week for him to show something. I'm still waiting.
I disagree to an extent. GB x 2, Phi, LA, DET x 2, NO he was very accurate. Those were all "big games" in their own way. Saying he threw "a lot" of short passes? I dont fully buy into it. His 20+ yard completions were middle of the pack. His 40+ yard completions were middle of the pack. His YPA was in the bottom half of the league but so were guys like Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, Trubisky, Newton, Foles and Stafford. Do they throw "a lot" of short passes too? Must be. I mean he definitely threw his fair share of check downs for sure. But again, what is that caused by? Do you really think he's missing wide open guys that often? Does he not have the time? Are plays taking too long to develop? There are plenty of reasons that could be behind that. We arent back there making the throws so we cant see anything for the most part.

And a side note, Case Keenum was well below Kirk Cousins in almost every statistical category this year. Guys thought Cousins threw check downs? Keenum was averaging 6.6 YPA this year. Cousins was 7.1. Teddy in 2014 and then 2015? 7.2 and 7.2. Their completion percentages? Nowhere near Cousins. 62% for Case, Teddy was 64% and 65%. Cousins was 70%. But guys are here saying Cousins "isnt accurate" or "throws a lot of short passes"? :confused: Not saying you're saying this but just in general, there are the numbers
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Re: My Plan to Fix the Vikings

Post by StumpHunter » Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:22 pm

Pondering Her Percy wrote:
Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:50 am


Guys thought Cousins threw check downs? Keenum was averaging 6.6 YPA this year. Cousins was 7.1. Teddy in 2014 and then 2015? 7.2 and 7.2. Their completion percentages? Nowhere near Cousins. 62% for Case, Teddy was 64% and 65%. Cousins was 70%. But guys are here saying Cousins "isnt accurate" or "throws a lot of short passes"? :confused: Not saying you're saying this but just in general, there are the numbers
I don't think you understand YPA based on this comment.

It can be an indicator of a QB throwing a lot of checkdowns, but what you wrote above actually indicates Cousins threw a lot more checkdowns than Teddy and probably Keenum as well, since he had fewer attempts for 0 yards (fewer incompletions), but still managed the 24th lowest YPA in the NFL.
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Re: My Plan to Fix the Vikings

Post by Pondering Her Percy » Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:48 pm

StumpHunter wrote:
Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:22 pm
Pondering Her Percy wrote:
Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:50 am


Guys thought Cousins threw check downs? Keenum was averaging 6.6 YPA this year. Cousins was 7.1. Teddy in 2014 and then 2015? 7.2 and 7.2. Their completion percentages? Nowhere near Cousins. 62% for Case, Teddy was 64% and 65%. Cousins was 70%. But guys are here saying Cousins "isnt accurate" or "throws a lot of short passes"? :confused: Not saying you're saying this but just in general, there are the numbers
I don't think you understand YPA based on this comment.

It can be an indicator of a QB throwing a lot of checkdowns, but what you wrote above actually indicates Cousins threw a lot more checkdowns than Teddy and probably Keenum as well, since he had fewer attempts for 0 yards (fewer incompletions), but still managed the 24th lowest YPA in the NFL.
I do understand it and that's not necessarily the case. Like I said, Cousins threw his fair share of check downs. And I'm looking more into it, our yards per completion percentage was low this year which does indicate that to an extent. But in 2015, Teddy's was dead last in the NFL. However, this is why I dont buy the "Cousins throws a lot of check downs" argument. In Washington, Cousins yards per completion was 17th, 5th and 14th in the 3 years he was starting there. He's never really been a "check down type" QB. However, this year it was 29th. I'm looking more at the 3 years in Washington sample size to the 1 year here. Was it the OC, was it the pressures this OL gave up (258 on the year)? Sorry but Cousins doesnt just turn into a check down Charlie in the middle of his career.

Also a side note FWIW, I saw today that out of the 258 pressures our OL gave up, Kirk Cousins caused 6.6% of those himself. That is only 17 of those 258 pressures for those that say Cousins holds the ball too long. I think the cause of those pressures is much more on the OL than it is Cousins himself.
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Re: My Plan to Fix the Vikings

Post by VikingLord » Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:54 pm

Pondering Her Percy wrote:
Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:50 am
And a side note, Case Keenum was well below Kirk Cousins in almost every statistical category this year. Guys thought Cousins threw check downs? Keenum was averaging 6.6 YPA this year. Cousins was 7.1. Teddy in 2014 and then 2015? 7.2 and 7.2. Their completion percentages? Nowhere near Cousins. 62% for Case, Teddy was 64% and 65%. Cousins was 70%. But guys are here saying Cousins "isnt accurate" or "throws a lot of short passes"? :confused: Not saying you're saying this but just in general, there are the numbers
A couple of observations on this:

- I think Cousins didn't take as many chances as Keenum, at least. Not sure how that affects averages, but Keenum's might be pulled down a bit if his WRs lost more of those than they won, even if they won relatively more than any other WR tandem.
- Cousins yardage totals inflated as games wore on and the Vikings needed those comebacks. He got a lot of his yardage in "garbage time" when the defense softened up a bit to prevent bigger plays.
- Cousins might not check down more than the average NFL QB, but he seems pretty risk averse overall. A risk averse QB is going to make safer throws. In some ways, completion percentage is an indicator of this trait in a QB.

For the record, I think the Vikings can win with Cousins. In no way do I think he is the fatal flaw in the offense. But he's going to need a much better and more consistent offensive line in front of him and a better running game.
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Re: My Plan to Fix the Vikings

Post by Mothman » Thu Jan 10, 2019 1:42 pm

Pondering Her Percy wrote:
Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:48 pm
Also a side note FWIW, I saw today that out of the 258 pressures our OL gave up, Kirk Cousins caused 6.6% of those himself. That is only 17 of those 258 pressures for those that say Cousins holds the ball too long. I think the cause of those pressures is much more on the OL than it is Cousins himself.
Is that a PFF stat?
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Re: My Plan to Fix the Vikings

Post by PurpleKoolaid » Thu Jan 10, 2019 1:50 pm

VikingLord wrote:
Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:54 pm
Pondering Her Percy wrote:
Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:50 am
And a side note, Case Keenum was well below Kirk Cousins in almost every statistical category this year. Guys thought Cousins threw check downs? Keenum was averaging 6.6 YPA this year. Cousins was 7.1. Teddy in 2014 and then 2015? 7.2 and 7.2. Their completion percentages? Nowhere near Cousins. 62% for Case, Teddy was 64% and 65%. Cousins was 70%. But guys are here saying Cousins "isnt accurate" or "throws a lot of short passes"? :confused: Not saying you're saying this but just in general, there are the numbers
A couple of observations on this:

- I think Cousins didn't take as many chances as Keenum, at least. Not sure how that affects averages, but Keenum's might be pulled down a bit if his WRs lost more of those than they won, even if they won relatively more than any other WR tandem.
- Cousins yardage totals inflated as games wore on and the Vikings needed those comebacks. He got a lot of his yardage in "garbage time" when the defense softened up a bit to prevent bigger plays.
- Cousins might not check down more than the average NFL QB, but he seems pretty risk averse overall. A risk averse QB is going to make safer throws. In some ways, completion percentage is an indicator of this trait in a QB.

For the record, I think the Vikings can win with Cousins. In no way do I think he is the fatal flaw in the offense. But he's going to need a much better and more consistent offensive line in front of him and a better running game.
Any NFL QB will do better with a better Oline play and a better running game. When you pay for a guy like Cousins, you expect more out of him. You certainly dont expect to see what I saw in Cousins at the end of this season.
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Re: My Plan to Fix the Vikings

Post by StumpHunter » Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:10 pm

Pondering Her Percy wrote:
Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:48 pm
StumpHunter wrote:
Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:22 pm


I don't think you understand YPA based on this comment.

It can be an indicator of a QB throwing a lot of checkdowns, but what you wrote above actually indicates Cousins threw a lot more checkdowns than Teddy and probably Keenum as well, since he had fewer attempts for 0 yards (fewer incompletions), but still managed the 24th lowest YPA in the NFL.
I do understand it and that's not necessarily the case. Like I said, Cousins threw his fair share of check downs. And I'm looking more into it, our yards per completion percentage was low this year which does indicate that to an extent. But in 2015, Teddy's was dead last in the NFL. However, this is why I dont buy the "Cousins throws a lot of check downs" argument. In Washington, Cousins yards per completion was 17th, 5th and 14th in the 3 years he was starting there. He's never really been a "check down type" QB. However, this year it was 29th. I'm looking more at the 3 years in Washington sample size to the 1 year here. Was it the OC, was it the pressures this OL gave up (258 on the year)? Sorry but Cousins doesnt just turn into a check down Charlie in the middle of his career.

Also a side note FWIW, I saw today that out of the 258 pressures our OL gave up, Kirk Cousins caused 6.6% of those himself. That is only 17 of those 258 pressures for those that say Cousins holds the ball too long. I think the cause of those pressures is much more on the OL than it is Cousins himself.
I like that you used rankings to hide the fact that Teddy had a higher yards per completion.
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Re: My Plan to Fix the Vikings

Post by YikesVikes » Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:27 pm

StumpHunter wrote:
Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:19 am
YikesVikes wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:29 pm
Also, teams started dropping 8 guy in coverage against us, notably Seattle.
Nah, they started to only drop 4 guys into coverage.

See, I can make stuff up too.
https://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/n ... 39765.html
Any more ownage? It was 7 not 8 but my guy.
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Re: My Plan to Fix the Vikings

Post by YikesVikes » Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:35 pm

The reason we didn't run the ball more was a combination of factors. The leading one was that we were not good at doing so early in games. This would then force us to pass the ball more. 2nd and long often resulted in a pass instead of another throw. Our first OC then abandoned the run all together as it prevented us from staying ahead of the sticks. Lastly, with Cooks injury and the WRs' success, we became pass happy. However, it all stemmed from an inability to run the ball consistently.
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Re: My Plan to Fix the Vikings

Post by YikesVikes » Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:46 pm

Not sure why we as a group choose to forget our RBs having 13 carried for 17 yards in a game. Why pretend like 10 more carries would have gotten us where we needed.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol
Football Outsiders have us at 23rd and I think that is based mostly on attempts per sack ratio. When you look at our rushing stats, we're pathetic. Power, we were 4th worse. Stuffs? horrible. These are telltale signs of a poor line. But you guys clamoring for better QB play. I would say it is easy to say that Kirk was a top 15 QB this season. Him jumping up to a top 10 QB wouldn't fix these issue.
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Re: My Plan to Fix the Vikings

Post by 808vikingsfan » Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:14 am

Pondering Her Percy wrote:
Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:50 am
808vikingsfan wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 4:59 pm


Cousins was not accurate, esp when it counted IMO. He threw a lot of short passes which inflates his completion numbers. I'm guessing the Vikings TOP was bad this year because of how bad Kirk and the offense was on 3rd down. Vikings were at the top in 3rd down conversions last year. Yes we have OL issues that need to be fixed. I'm one that thinks even with a decent OL, Cousins will still be the same, bad where it matters most (3rd down and redzone). I've seen too many times where even when he had time, Cousins still made bad decisions. Put all the OL comparisons aside, I want a QB that can throw that 4th down pass, around a defender like how Foles did. That was such an underrated throw. With how much pressure Foles was under (playoff implications), I can't see Cousins doing that. I've been waiting since the bye week for him to show something. I'm still waiting.
I disagree to an extent. GB x 2, Phi, LA, DET x 2, NO he was very accurate. Those were all "big games" in their own way. Saying he threw "a lot" of short passes? I dont fully buy into it. His 20+ yard completions were middle of the pack. His 40+ yard completions were middle of the pack. His YPA was in the bottom half of the league but so were guys like Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, Trubisky, Newton, Foles and Stafford. Do they throw "a lot" of short passes too? Must be. I mean he definitely threw his fair share of check downs for sure. But again, what is that caused by? Do you really think he's missing wide open guys that often? Does he not have the time? Are plays taking too long to develop? There are plenty of reasons that could be behind that. We arent back there making the throws so we cant see anything for the most part.

And a side note, Case Keenum was well below Kirk Cousins in almost every statistical category this year. Guys thought Cousins threw check downs? Keenum was averaging 6.6 YPA this year. Cousins was 7.1. Teddy in 2014 and then 2015? 7.2 and 7.2. Their completion percentages? Nowhere near Cousins. 62% for Case, Teddy was 64% and 65%. Cousins was 70%. But guys are here saying Cousins "isnt accurate" or "throws a lot of short passes"? :confused: Not saying you're saying this but just in general, there are the numbers
I'd really like to see Cousins stats on 3rd down and redzone. And to be fair to Keenum and Bridgewater, Cousins was throwing to Diggs and Thielen who are ranked pretty high in contested catches.

Not sure if YPA is an accurate stat for checkdowns unless they are not counting YAC.
As far as Cousins inflating his completion numbers, I'm not going to look at every game. Here's the last four: (pro football reference)
vs SEA 19 of his 20 completions were "complete short to __"
vs MIA, 12 of his 14 completions were "complete short to ____"
vs DET 16 of his 21 completions were "complete short to ____"
vs CHI, 20 of his 20 completions were "complete short to ___"

I think his completion percentage is inflated.
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Re: My Plan to Fix the Vikings

Post by StumpHunter » Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:25 am

YikesVikes wrote:
Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:27 pm
StumpHunter wrote:
Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:19 am


Nah, they started to only drop 4 guys into coverage.

See, I can make stuff up too.
https://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/n ... 39765.html
Any more ownage? It was 7 not 8 but my guy.
They dropped 7 3 times in that game, 6 12 times in some new fangled "dime" defense?, and spent the majority of the game in nickle.

You got me alright. With what, I am not sure, but I have never felt so owned by someone who was wrong in all my life.
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Re: My Plan to Fix the Vikings

Post by StumpHunter » Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:48 am

So putting aside the QB who is here for at least two more seasons, I think we can all agree that we need two new guards, a replacement for Barr or Richardson, and a 3rd WR who doesn't suck.

A younger, cheaper TE would be good, and we will need a #2 RB (resigning Murray at his age would be a mistake, imo).

They need to figure out what to do at the second safety spot. Sendejo should not be back. He was solid in coverage, but you can't count on him after the injury, and I think he can be upgraded.

Options to address above:

Cut Griffen to re-sign Barr and Richardson. I think they can make it work salary-wise with his 14 million to go along with Sendejo, Remmers and a Rudolph restructure. This does make our pass rush considerably worse. Even at 75% last season, Griffen is a better pass rusher than Weatherly.

We need to hit on at least 4, probably 5 draft picks to get close to being as good as we were in 2017.

That is all I got.
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