Cousins at his best under pressure

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Re: Cousins at his best under pressure

Post by Cliff » Fri Oct 19, 2018 1:19 pm

StumpHunter wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 7:54 am
I guess I am in the minority who thinks Cousins contract cannot be justified by QB passing stats alone, and that a QB should be judged on how they impact the offenses ability to score, since scoring is all that matters. But since so many equate QB "success" with stats, let's look at how Cousins is doing compared to Keenum last year:

7.4 YPA, 4.6% TD percentage, 98.3 passer rating, 74.3 QBR, 4.4 sack %, 1.5% INT percentage and 3 game winning drives.

7.4 YPA, 4.6% TD percentage, 102.7 passer rating, 69.2 QBR, 6.5 sack %, 1.2% INT percentage and 0 game winning drives.

Now, Cousins is actually throwing a lot more than Case did, and IS being asked to do more, but Case was a backup and from a per pass standpoint, was nearly identical to Cousins. In an offense that scored more points.

Worth the 28 million guaranteed to put up similar per pass production as a backup?

Worth the 28 million to have a worse offense?

I guess I don't see it.

It could very well get to the point where he earns that contract, but he isn't there yet.
I think Cousins is earning his salary - other teams in the league were willing to pay more and he does have the stats to back it up. I agree that stats aren't everything but QBs in the league are a premium. There are a handful of teams that would gladly pay more for him right now.

I also think Cousins is the better overall QB but I will say one thing that Keenum had that helped him thrive in this offense - he was really good at moving around and extending plays. Super important behind the Vikings horrible offensive line. Being able to give the likes of Diggs and Thielen an extra second here and there helped make up for his other blatant deficiencies as a passer.

On the other hand Cousins is the opposite I think. He's got all of the throwing ability that Keenum was missing but isn't very good when he has to scramble. That's not to say he's bad under pressure (throwing the ball from in the pocket with a defender in his face), but he's not very good on the move, I don't think.
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Re: Cousins at his best under pressure

Post by J. Kapp 11 » Fri Oct 19, 2018 5:32 pm

StumpHunter wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 7:54 am
I guess I am in the minority who thinks Cousins contract cannot be justified by QB passing stats alone, and that a QB should be judged on how they impact the offenses ability to score, since scoring is all that matters. But since so many equate QB "success" with stats, let's look at how Cousins is doing compared to Keenum last year:

7.4 YPA, 4.6% TD percentage, 98.3 passer rating, 74.3 QBR, 4.4 sack %, 1.5% INT percentage and 3 game winning drives.

7.4 YPA, 4.6% TD percentage, 102.7 passer rating, 69.2 QBR, 6.5 sack %, 1.2% INT percentage and 0 game winning drives.

Now, Cousins is actually throwing a lot more than Case did, and IS being asked to do more, but Case was a backup and from a per pass standpoint, was nearly identical to Cousins. In an offense that scored more points.

Worth the 28 million guaranteed to put up similar per pass production as a backup?

Worth the 28 million to have a worse offense?

I guess I don't see it.

It could very well get to the point where he earns that contract, but he isn't there yet.
Who's basing it on stats alone?

Those who disagree with you are doing so mostly based on the eye test ... any objective evaluator will tell you that Kirk Cousins is by far a better quarterback than Case Keenum. And I was one of Keenum's biggest supporters last year. But even I could see that what he was doing wasn't sustainable. He was going to cost $20 million a year. Again, Cousins at $28 million is a better value than Case Keenum at $20 million, hands down.

Also, put last year's rushing attack and offensive line in front of Kirk Cousins and see what you get. He's playing behind 5 turnstiles. OK, maybe not Elflein, but certainly 4 turnstiles. And he's still producing.

Finally, how is our offense worse? We're averaging a half-point less per game, and that's with a 6-point stinker thrown in. We're 9th in the NFL in total yards, and we'll finish the week 8th ... we were 11th last year. We're 6th in passing, 11th last year. And that's with an offensive line that is FAR worse than last year's and no running game until last week against a terrible rush defense.
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Re: Cousins at his best under pressure

Post by S197 » Fri Oct 19, 2018 6:56 pm

StumpHunter wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 7:54 am
I guess I am in the minority who thinks Cousins contract cannot be justified by QB passing stats alone, and that a QB should be judged on how they impact the offenses ability to score, since scoring is all that matters. But since so many equate QB "success" with stats, let's look at how Cousins is doing compared to Keenum last year:

7.4 YPA, 4.6% TD percentage, 98.3 passer rating, 74.3 QBR, 4.4 sack %, 1.5% INT percentage and 3 game winning drives.

7.4 YPA, 4.6% TD percentage, 102.7 passer rating, 69.2 QBR, 6.5 sack %, 1.2% INT percentage and 0 game winning drives.

Now, Cousins is actually throwing a lot more than Case did, and IS being asked to do more, but Case was a backup and from a per pass standpoint, was nearly identical to Cousins. In an offense that scored more points.

Worth the 28 million guaranteed to put up similar per pass production as a backup?

Worth the 28 million to have a worse offense?

I guess I don't see it.

It could very well get to the point where he earns that contract, but he isn't there yet.
You also need to factor in the schedule. The Vikings have played @GB, @LA, and @Philly, which is a lot tougher start than last year. Plus Keenum didn't play against the Saints last year.
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Re: Cousins at his best under pressure

Post by StumpHunter » Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:19 pm

The offense is scoring almost 3.5 pts less per game in a year where rule changes have nearly every other team scoring at a ridiculous pace.

Per drive, they are 23rd in the NFL in scoring at 1.76 PPD after being 8th in 2017 at 2.11. 20th in yards per drive after being 8th last year, although the difference is less than a yard per drive.

Most of the struggles on offense aren't on Cousins, and while I don't think the line is that much worse at pass blocking this year than last, he does not have the run support Keenum had.

I just would hope a guy making top 5 money at the position would be able to have an above average offense without a ton of run support. Maybe that is asking too much?
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Re: Cousins at his best under pressure

Post by StumpHunter » Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:22 pm

Cliff wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 1:19 pm
I think Cousins is earning his salary - other teams in the league were willing to pay more and he does have the stats to back it up. I agree that stats aren't everything but QBs in the league are a premium. There are a handful of teams that would gladly pay more for him right now.
Good QBs making a lot of money keep GMs employed longer than taking chances on guys in the draft would. Good QBs making a lot of money do not however, win Super Bowls.

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2018/02/nfl-qu ... ree-agency

You have a better chance of winning a Super Bowl with a Nick Foles, Brad Johnson or a Trent Dilfer than you do with a QB making as much of the salary cap as Cousins.
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Re: Cousins at his best under pressure

Post by J. Kapp 11 » Sun Oct 21, 2018 8:15 pm

StumpHunter wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:19 pm
The offense is scoring almost 3.5 pts less per game in a year where rule changes have nearly every other team scoring at a ridiculous pace.
Check your math. You're way off. Going into the Jets game, the difference was about a half point per game. With 37 on the board today, we're now averaging nearly 2 ppg MORE than last year.
StumpHunter wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:19 pm
I just would hope a guy making top 5 money at the position would be able to have an above average offense without a ton of run support. Maybe that is asking too much?
Yes. It is.
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Re: Cousins at his best under pressure

Post by StumpHunter » Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:48 pm

J. Kapp 11 wrote:
Sun Oct 21, 2018 8:15 pm
Check your math. You're way off. Going into the Jets game, the difference was about a half point per game. With 37 on the board today, we're now averaging nearly 2 ppg MORE than last year.
You forget the defense has scored 14 pts this season. Still behind last year in offensive scoring.
J. Kapp 11 wrote:
Sun Oct 21, 2018 8:15 pm
Yes. It is.
Then we overpaid.
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Re: Cousins at his best under pressure

Post by J. Kapp 11 » Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:53 pm

StumpHunter wrote:
Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:48 pm
You forget the defense has scored 14 pts this season. Still behind last year in offensive scoring
Guess not after hanging 37 yesterday.
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Re: Cousins at his best under pressure

Post by Cliff » Mon Oct 22, 2018 1:41 pm

StumpHunter wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:22 pm
You have a better chance of winning a Super Bowl with a Nick Foles, Brad Johnson or a Trent Dilfer than you do with a QB making as much of the salary cap as Cousins.
The last 15 or so super bowls is a who's who of super highly paid QBs ... Sans Foles, of course and even then, the team that won the super bowl actually had just used a 1st round pick on a QB with the expectation of eventually (hopefully) paying him a ton of money.

Nick foles
Tom Brady
Peyton Manning
Tom Brady
Russel Wilson
Joe Flacco
Eli Manning
Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees
Ben Roethlisberger
Eli Manning
Peyton Manning
Ben Roethlisberger
Tom Brady
Tom Brady

If a team is able to manage their salary better around a highly paid QB then that's great ... but realistically very good and highly paid QBs are at the front of super bowl winning teams.
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Re: Cousins at his best under pressure

Post by mansquatch » Mon Oct 22, 2018 2:16 pm

Cliff's post really should be the end of the expense topic IMO. The USA today article is just silly. They basically are saying that since Philly won it last year the ever year of history prior is trash. You must traverse a literal sea of great QBs to get from Foles to Dilfer and Johnson. The only stop is Wilson. Apparently USA Today can't afford even a bargain statistician...

Also consider the years that a non-traditional elite passer won, look at those specific teams:

Both years the Giants won they got hot at the end of the season and were buoyed by a strong defense. Eli also played well above his "mean" in those seasons. Eli, this year not withstanding is overall a good to great QB. He is just streaky.
Flacco isn't a bad QB by any stretch, I'd rate him in a similar class as Cousins. The year he won, he was supported by a still strong Ravens Defense.
Wilson's win, arguably the most similar to Foles on this list, was anchored by probably the best defensive unit of the past decade. (One might argue that Peyton Manning's last win was similar.)
Foles was supported by a good Defense, but more supported by a team that got hot at the end of the year, galvanized by the Wentz injury.
Aaron Roger's is definitely an Elite passer, but his SB win was a prime example of getting hot at the right time. They were the 6th seed that year. (Just for fun, since he has emerged as an elite passer they haven't gotten to the big game again. HAHA!)
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Re: Cousins at his best under pressure

Post by StumpHunter » Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:01 pm

mansquatch wrote:
Mon Oct 22, 2018 2:16 pm
Cliff's post really should be the end of the expense topic IMO. The USA today article is just silly. They basically are saying that since Philly won it last year the ever year of history prior is trash. You must traverse a literal sea of great QBs to get from Foles to Dilfer and Johnson. The only stop is Wilson. Apparently USA Today can't afford even a bargain statistician...

Also consider the years that a non-traditional elite passer won, look at those specific teams:

Both years the Giants won they got hot at the end of the season and were buoyed by a strong defense. Eli also played well above his "mean" in those seasons. Eli, this year not withstanding is overall a good to great QB. He is just streaky.
Flacco isn't a bad QB by any stretch, I'd rate him in a similar class as Cousins. The year he won, he was supported by a still strong Ravens Defense.
Wilson's win, arguably the most similar to Foles on this list, was anchored by probably the best defensive unit of the past decade. (One might argue that Peyton Manning's last win was similar.)
Foles was supported by a good Defense, but more supported by a team that got hot at the end of the year, galvanized by the Wentz injury.
Aaron Roger's is definitely an Elite passer, but his SB win was a prime example of getting hot at the right time. They were the 6th seed that year. (Just for fun, since he has emerged as an elite passer they haven't gotten to the big game again. HAHA!)
No, the USA today article is saying that despite really good QBs making the most money, only 4 have ever won the SB making more than 10% of the cap, and only one, Steve Young, making as much or more than Cousins is making of the cap(this year, next year it is even higher).

The fact that there is no significant difference in how much you spend on your QB versus how much you win, should be very eye opening for most GMs. That means rookies and journeymen QBs are winning as much as their highly paid counterparts and are actually winning more SB's than the most highly paid QBs.
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Re: Cousins at his best under pressure

Post by Cliff » Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:09 pm

StumpHunter wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:01 pm
That means rookies and journeymen QBs are winning as much as their highly paid counterparts and are actually winning more SB's than the most highly paid QBs.
But you can look at the list of the last 15 super bowl winning QBs and see that clearly isn't true. I think Ben was the only one to win as a rookie and none of them are journeymen outside of Foles.
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Re: Cousins at his best under pressure

Post by S197 » Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:19 pm

Cliff wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:09 pm
But you can look at the list of the last 15 super bowl winning QBs and see that clearly isn't true. I think Ben was the only one to win as a rookie and none of them are journeymen outside of Foles.
I might go so far as excluding, or at least highly discounting, history beyond 10 years ago. The NFL we have today is vastly different than the one 10 years ago and certainly different than a Steve Young era. The number of points teams are putting up this year makes the QB position so much more important than an era where you could actually hit WR's and touch QB's.
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Re: Cousins at his best under pressure

Post by StumpHunter » Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:13 pm

Cliff wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:09 pm
But you can look at the list of the last 15 super bowl winning QBs and see that clearly isn't true. I think Ben was the only one to win as a rookie and none of them are journeymen outside of Foles.
Dilfer, Johnson and Foles won one making a fraction of what their high paid counterparts made.

Then there are 5 QBs who have won it on their rookie contracts since Brady did it his first year starting.

There have been 4 total QBs win it making 10% of the salary cap or more. 3 are considered top 10 of all time, the 4th is Eli.

Rogers and Brees won one before they got paid their big contracts. Brady took a significant pay cut to win his last one.

If it truly is a quarterback league, and if the best QBs are making the most money, shouldn't the list of SB winning QBs be filled with a bunch of QBs making the most money? Instead, the highest paid QB has never won the SB.

A QB can't do it on their own, but they are getting paid so much they need too.
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Re: Cousins at his best under pressure

Post by Cliff » Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:59 am

StumpHunter wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:13 pm
Dilfer, Johnson and Foles won one making a fraction of what their high paid counterparts made.
Yeah but you're going back pretty far to get those. I would argue Foles is the only one relevant to the current league rules but even if you disagree that's 3 such QBs in 18 years or 16% (Dilfer in 2000). The only other QB since 2000 to win a super bowl that wasn't "top tier" is Eli Manning. So that's 4 superbowls in the last 18 years won but "non top tier" QBs.
Then there are 5 QBs who have won it on their rookie contracts since Brady did it his first year starting. There have been 4 total QBs win it making 10% of the salary cap or more. 3 are considered top 10 of all time, the 4th is Eli.

Rogers and Brees won one before they got paid their big contracts. Brady took a significant pay cut to win his last one.
Right, what you're talking about basically amounts to luck though. You've got a very, very small window to have one of those kinds of QBs at that price and, by the way, you have to actually *draft* a top tier QB. Not to mention, all of those QBs would all go on to be highly paid QBs. Those teams were lucky enough to have them when they were cheap. For 1-2 years they have a chance to take advantage of that. You can't build a team based on the hope that you'll get that option or that your QB will give the team a "team friendly" deal (like Brady).

What you *can* do is go out and get (what you think is at least) a top tier QB and at least up your odds in that respect.
If it truly is a quarterback league, and if the best QBs are making the most money, shouldn't the list of SB winning QBs be filled with a bunch of QBs making the most money?
It is filled with a bunch of QBs making the most money. If they aren't now, they were at one point but the cap keeps going up and new contracts are always bigger. Russel Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, and Eli Manning are all in the middle of the pack salary wise now but they all signed contracts in 2015. At the time they were all the highest paid players in the league.
Instead, the highest paid QB has never won the SB.
The highest paid QB is Rodgers who makes 5 million more per year than Cousins (who is 3rd also behind Matt Ryan).
A QB can't do it on their own, but they are getting paid so much they need too.
No, but star players in this league cost a lot of money. QBs are generally agreed to be the most important position on the field under the current rules and so they're the most expensive.
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