Vikings Draft Picks

A forum for the hard core Minnesota Vikings fan. Discuss upcoming games, opponents, trades, draft or what ever is on the minds of Viking fans!

Moderator: Moderators

mansquatch
Hall of Fame Candidate
Posts: 3456
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2005 2:44 pm
Location: Coon Rapids, MN

Re: Vikings Draft Picks

Post by mansquatch » Tue May 15, 2018 2:27 pm

I doubt his job is tagged to Cousins. That line of thinking has been used with Ponder, with Teddy, etc. Last year there was talk of it being tagged to the OL.

IMO, I do not think any of us really know what his job is tagged to. I say that because none of us have come up with a clear model to compare him vs. other GMs. The only clear approach I've ever heard is "He hasn't won a SB." That is clear, but it is absurd, since by that approach 31 GMs would get canned every season.

When the GM conversation comes up I always say "As compared to what?" How does Rick compare to other GMs? What is his hit/miss rate like after 3 years vs. others. How well has he done at team building vs. others? (How do you compare him to others?)

As an aside, you could look at the teams that are routinely in the post season, but if you do that you'll quickly notice that the repeat performers are the guys with HOF QBs. (There is that QB thing again, must be a big deal to get better there...) Those teams miss in the draft also, they just do not look as bad because they have that HOF guy at QB covering up mistakes. Look no further than the hated Packers. It has taken 8 seasons for Thompson to be exposed as a fraud. No Rogers and it probably would have taken only three or four.

One interesting thing I think about: Is it possible to have excellence at the GM and HC position and not win a championship? I think it is. The simple fact is what we saw last year prior to the Minneapolis Miracle. Drew Brees up and decides he isn't going to lose and goes bonkers. We've seen Rogers do it over and over again over the years as well. You get up against a team like that with a playmaker at QB and you better start making it happen when you have the ball or you are going to lose. Did you lose because of coaching or bad roster decisions? Or did you lose because the other guy was great that day?

Hockey is similar. If a Goalie up and decides to go nuts and starts making absurd saves the rest of it won't matter.
Winning is not a sometime thing it is an all of the time thing - Vince Lombardi

User avatar
S197
Fenrir
Posts: 11229
Joined: Fri Dec 22, 2006 1:28 pm
Location: Hawaii

Re: Vikings Draft Picks

Post by S197 » Tue May 15, 2018 4:10 pm

mansquatch wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 2:27 pm
I doubt his job is tagged to Cousins. That line of thinking has been used with Ponder, with Teddy, etc. Last year there was talk of it being tagged to the OL.
Those are not remotely similar. We gave Cousins $84M. Guaranteed. All of it.

If he flops, its going to be hard to justify keeping a GM who made that massive of a mistake. I don't think you get a mulligan if you miss on an "all in" move like this.

User avatar
Cliff
Site Admin
Posts: 8310
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2004 5:51 pm
Location: Kentucky

Re: Vikings Draft Picks

Post by Cliff » Tue May 15, 2018 4:35 pm

S197 wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 4:10 pm
Those are not remotely similar. We gave Cousins $84M. Guaranteed. All of it.

If he flops, its going to be hard to justify keeping a GM who made that massive of a mistake. I don't think you get a mulligan if you miss on an "all in" move like this.
Maybe.

If Cousins flops then good luck finding the GM that wouldn't have made that move if they were in Spielman's place.

Seemed like almost a league wide consensus good move.

I literally googled "Vikings cousins bad move" and the first thing that comes up talks about how perfect the match is.
"Everyone has a plan 'til they get punched in the mouth." - Mike Tyson

User avatar
Pondering Her Percy
Hall of Famer
Posts: 5282
Joined: Thu Dec 13, 2012 3:38 am
Location: Watertown, NY

Re: Vikings Draft Picks

Post by Pondering Her Percy » Tue May 15, 2018 4:46 pm

S197 wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 1:50 pm
At the end of the day, Spielman's job is tied to Cousins. If Cousins flops, Spielman will be gone. Doesn't matter if that's fair, how he built the roster, etc., that's what will happen. So if Spielman misjudged the strength of the OL and Cousins doesn't have any protection, he's basically sealed his own fate. Conversely, if Cousins performs as he should, no one will care about Hernandez/Daniels in a couple months.

I also don't see a "we suck" attitude, if anything there's criticism but it seems fair with supporting arguments. I've been a relative big fan of Spielman, the post-draft thoughts from prior years are out there for anyone who wants to look them up. And 2016 is shaping up to be a poor draft so he it isn't like he's been stellar year in and year out. Overall I think he's done a good job, a very good job in fact, but I think there's still areas that need to be worked on. One of my biggest gripes about Spielman is he never drafts a backup QB. The last one was John David Booty eons ago. And he followed that MO again this year. It's nice we have Siemian, he's a serviceable backup, but he's also only here for a year and this was by most accounts a very deep QB draft class.

You can probably add placing a low priority on interior lineman to being a similar MO to QB. In essence the two positions have been treated very much the same. When there's an absolute need, we'll draft a guy or splash in free agency, but it's rarely forward looking to me. We should be looking beyond just starters because that's where on occasion you find guys like Kirk Cousins.
Well one thing I will say is that our line isn’t anywhere near what Washington’s was last year. Cousins was sacked 41 times and still put up a solid season with a bottom 5 running game and no receiving core. Just to put that in perspective, Bradford was sacked 37 times behind the worst line we as Vikings fans have ever seen. And Kirk cousins is much more mobile than Bradford. THATS how bad that OL was in Washington last year. Ours is nowhere near that bad and we have a stud RB and stud WRs. Along with a defense that is loaded. This is a big reason I’m not worried about the OL. Yeah it can always get better but I’m still not worried
Image

User avatar
Pondering Her Percy
Hall of Famer
Posts: 5282
Joined: Thu Dec 13, 2012 3:38 am
Location: Watertown, NY

Re: Vikings Draft Picks

Post by Pondering Her Percy » Tue May 15, 2018 4:48 pm

mansquatch wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 2:27 pm
I doubt his job is tagged to Cousins. That line of thinking has been used with Ponder, with Teddy, etc. Last year there was talk of it being tagged to the OL.

IMO, I do not think any of us really know what his job is tagged to. I say that because none of us have come up with a clear model to compare him vs. other GMs. The only clear approach I've ever heard is "He hasn't won a SB." That is clear, but it is absurd, since by that approach 31 GMs would get canned every season.

When the GM conversation comes up I always say "As compared to what?" How does Rick compare to other GMs? What is his hit/miss rate like after 3 years vs. others. How well has he done at team building vs. others? (How do you compare him to others?)

As an aside, you could look at the teams that are routinely in the post season, but if you do that you'll quickly notice that the repeat performers are the guys with HOF QBs. (There is that QB thing again, must be a big deal to get better there...) Those teams miss in the draft also, they just do not look as bad because they have that HOF guy at QB covering up mistakes. Look no further than the hated Packers. It has taken 8 seasons for Thompson to be exposed as a fraud. No Rogers and it probably would have taken only three or four.

One interesting thing I think about: Is it possible to have excellence at the GM and HC position and not win a championship? I think it is. The simple fact is what we saw last year prior to the Minneapolis Miracle. Drew Brees up and decides he isn't going to lose and goes bonkers. We've seen Rogers do it over and over again over the years as well. You get up against a team like that with a playmaker at QB and you better start making it happen when you have the ball or you are going to lose. Did you lose because of coaching or bad roster decisions? Or did you lose because the other guy was great that day?

Hockey is similar. If a Goalie up and decides to go nuts and starts making absurd saves the rest of it won't matter.
Well said. If he was going to get canned, it would’ve happened with ponder. It didn’t. And he’s built an awesome roster.
Image

User avatar
Pondering Her Percy
Hall of Famer
Posts: 5282
Joined: Thu Dec 13, 2012 3:38 am
Location: Watertown, NY

Re: Vikings Draft Picks

Post by Pondering Her Percy » Tue May 15, 2018 4:49 pm

S197 wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 4:10 pm
Those are not remotely similar. We gave Cousins $84M. Guaranteed. All of it.

If he flops, its going to be hard to justify keeping a GM who made that massive of a mistake. I don't think you get a mulligan if you miss on an "all in" move like this.
Classify “flops”? I mean the guy is good. No doubt about it. He has a loaded team around him. Is flops not win a SB? Because if it is I don’t agree.
Image

User avatar
Pondering Her Percy
Hall of Famer
Posts: 5282
Joined: Thu Dec 13, 2012 3:38 am
Location: Watertown, NY

Re: Vikings Draft Picks

Post by Pondering Her Percy » Tue May 15, 2018 4:52 pm

Cliff wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 4:35 pm
Maybe.

If Cousins flops then good luck finding the GM that wouldn't have made that move if they were in Spielman's place.

Seemed like almost a league wide consensus good move.

I literally googled "Vikings cousins bad move" and the first thing that comes up talks about how perfect the match is.
Agreed. Anyone would’ve pulled that trigger. Just like I would’ve pulled the trigger for Bradford. He was the best QB available and we had a strong team. It was worth the shot IMO. Cousins being available was also our best shot. Any GM pulls that trigger IMO. I always said too, give me a better option than Spielman right now? I can’t name one. And he’s doing the right things for the most part with this roster. You can’t ask for much more out of a GM than what he’s done lately
Image

User avatar
S197
Fenrir
Posts: 11229
Joined: Fri Dec 22, 2006 1:28 pm
Location: Hawaii

Re: Vikings Draft Picks

Post by S197 » Tue May 15, 2018 6:24 pm

Cliff wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 4:35 pm
Maybe.

If Cousins flops then good luck finding the GM that wouldn't have made that move if they were in Spielman's place.

Seemed like almost a league wide consensus good move.

I literally googled "Vikings cousins bad move" and the first thing that comes up talks about how perfect the match is.
When we were in the Cousins sweepstakes there were a number of articles pointing out the predicament Spielman was in. Not only did we set the precedent for QB pricing moving forward, we also dropped the guy that got us to the NFCC, a former #1 picked loved by our head coach, and a guy we traded two picks for, including a 1st.

Right now things may look perfect because everything is unknown. On paper, Cousins looks like a good pick. But what if Cousins flops? And since that's ambiguous, what if the Vikings don't make it to the playoffs next year? Worse, what if Keenum has another year like last or Teddy plays up to his potential and one of those teams make the playoffs?

A tough decision had to be made and Spielman made one. Hopefully the right one. But if he's wrong, especially if one of these other guys succeed, it will be a major blunder. One I don't see him coming back from. I'm not saying what's going to happen is fair, I'm just saying it's going to happen.
If the Minnesota Vikings win the Super Bowl, credit Zygi Wilf for signing Kirk Cousins. If they don’t, blame Rick Spielman.
Signing Cousins for $84 million is a big gamble. He’s a fine quarterback, but he’s not a great quarterback. His signing could affect the team’s ability to retain core defensive players as well as wide receiver Stefon Diggs, players eligible to become unrestricted free agents after next season.

If the Cousins move doesn’t work out, Spielman, the Vikings’ general manager, can be blamed for not dissuading Wilf from mortgaging a payroll that could have serious ramifications.
https://www.twincities.com/2018/03/17/c ... k-cousins/
Spielman must now hope signing Cousins won’t lead to the Vikings suffering the same fate as Captain Ahab for both the short and long term. Minnesota might be unable to re-sign standout players in the future because Cousins is consuming so much cap space. That makes the margin of error even smaller in upcoming Vikings drafts.

So be it. And give Spielman credit for this:

He’s willing to go down with the franchise’s trademark dragon boat for the chance to reel in a Lombardi Trophy
https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl-free-agenc ... 05698.html

And probably the most telling of all:
“It's important for myself and (general manager) Rick [Spielman] and the organization that we pick the right guy that is going to help us continue to move forward. If we don't do that, then I'll probably get fired,” Zimmer said Thursday morning at the NFL scouting combine."
This was an all in move by the Vikings. And I'm totally fine with it. But you can't go all in without taking a big risk and big risks have big consequences. Whether deserving or not, if this goes south someone needs to be the scapegoat and it's going to be Rick. Maybe Zimmer.

PurpleKoolaid
Hall of Famer
Posts: 8359
Joined: Mon Oct 24, 2011 9:52 pm

Re: Vikings Draft Picks

Post by PurpleKoolaid » Tue May 15, 2018 6:57 pm

S197 wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 4:10 pm
Those are not remotely similar. We gave Cousins $84M. Guaranteed. All of it.

If he flops, its going to be hard to justify keeping a GM who made that massive of a mistake. I don't think you get a mulligan if you miss on an "all in" move like this.
Need a 'like' button for this post :)

User avatar
Pondering Her Percy
Hall of Famer
Posts: 5282
Joined: Thu Dec 13, 2012 3:38 am
Location: Watertown, NY

Re: Vikings Draft Picks

Post by Pondering Her Percy » Wed May 16, 2018 8:30 am

S197 wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 6:24 pm
When we were in the Cousins sweepstakes there were a number of articles pointing out the predicament Spielman was in. Not only did we set the precedent for QB pricing moving forward, we also dropped the guy that got us to the NFCC, a former #1 picked loved by our head coach, and a guy we traded two picks for, including a 1st.

Right now things may look perfect because everything is unknown. On paper, Cousins looks like a good pick. But what if Cousins flops? And since that's ambiguous, what if the Vikings don't make it to the playoffs next year? Worse, what if Keenum has another year like last or Teddy plays up to his potential and one of those teams make the playoffs?

A tough decision had to be made and Spielman made one. Hopefully the right one. But if he's wrong, especially if one of these other guys succeed, it will be a major blunder. One I don't see him coming back from. I'm not saying what's going to happen is fair, I'm just saying it's going to happen.





https://www.twincities.com/2018/03/17/c ... k-cousins/



https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl-free-agenc ... 05698.html

And probably the most telling of all:



This was an all in move by the Vikings. And I'm totally fine with it. But you can't go all in without taking a big risk and big risks have big consequences. Whether deserving or not, if this goes south someone needs to be the scapegoat and it's going to be Rick. Maybe Zimmer.
You make some good points for sure and I see where you're coming from. I guess my take is that it also is dependent on the offseasons Spielman has the next few years. If we are making the playoffs and this is still a solid roster (which it should be) but Cousins doesnt bring us a SB, or even maybe an NFCCG appearance, I still dont see Spielman being fired. I mean lets be honest here, something would have to drastically happen to this team for us to just not make the playoffs with the team we have. Like in 2016 where our entire OL was hurt, or if Cousins went down, or if our D was crushed by injuries. If this team stays fairly healthy, they are a shoe in playoff team IMO. I know anything can happen and we have a tough schedule but still. Cousins isnt a middle of the road QB. He had a very bad team on the fringe of the playoffs two years and made the playoffs the other year. This defense is top 3, the WRs are loaded. RB is a stud, etc. A team that loaded and that stays healthy doesnt just miss the playoffs. Or I should say, it would be extremely rare for that to happen. Not saying it "cant" happen but its unlikely.
Image

User avatar
Cliff
Site Admin
Posts: 8310
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2004 5:51 pm
Location: Kentucky

Re: Vikings Draft Picks

Post by Cliff » Wed May 16, 2018 8:58 am

S197 wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 6:24 pm
When we were in the Cousins sweepstakes there were a number of articles pointing out the predicament Spielman was in. Not only did we set the precedent for QB pricing moving forward, we also dropped the guy that got us to the NFCC, a former #1 picked loved by our head coach, and a guy we traded two picks for, including a 1st.

Right now things may look perfect because everything is unknown. On paper, Cousins looks like a good pick. But what if Cousins flops? And since that's ambiguous, what if the Vikings don't make it to the playoffs next year? Worse, what if Keenum has another year like last or Teddy plays up to his potential and one of those teams make the playoffs?

A tough decision had to be made and Spielman made one. Hopefully the right one. But if he's wrong, especially if one of these other guys succeed, it will be a major blunder. One I don't see him coming back from. I'm not saying what's going to happen is fair, I'm just saying it's going to happen.
I think Spielman is more tied to Zimmer than anyone as far as keeping his job goes. Zimmer was the first time Spielman was actually able to choose the head coach, I believe. If they decide it's time for Zimmer to go Rick will be with him.

If Cousins flops that may very well happen. I think it matters just how they don't make the playoffs. Are they 9-7 or 3-13? As it stands right now Zimmer has the 3rd best win percentage in Vikings history (he's .001% behind Denny Green). He's already won as many games as Brad Childress despite having one less season.

The Vikings don't have a great track record of picking head coaches (in recent history especially), is my point. I think Zimmer would have to lay a pretty nasty egg for him to get booted after the 2018 season. (See the Childress meltdown of 2010)
"Everyone has a plan 'til they get punched in the mouth." - Mike Tyson

mansquatch
Hall of Fame Candidate
Posts: 3456
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2005 2:44 pm
Location: Coon Rapids, MN

Re: Vikings Draft Picks

Post by mansquatch » Wed May 16, 2018 12:19 pm

To add on to the "what if he flops" discussion:

If he flops because he blows an ACL or they team gets hit with the injury bug, then I think they all survive. If he comes out and just sucks then it would be a different story. But I really can't see why that would happen? There is plenty of film on Cousins. They know who is and what he can do. I guess it is possible that they get stubborn (a la childress) on offense and try to force Cousins into a scheme he doesn't fit, but there is literally ZERO reason to think that would happen. The new OC might be a bit of wildcard on this front, but we saw what he did in Philly where he catered his approach to what Foles was good at. To a point, they won the SB. So I find it hard to point to any sort of strong reason that would make me thing Cousins would lay an egg unless it is injury related.

The biggest hurdle this season is the schedule. It is nasty. IMO the divisional games will be really important. If they can win 11 games and take a home playoff game, that should be considered a success. I think they can potentially do better, but given their road schedule it is going to take some luck. Don't get me wrong, I think we are an elite NFC roster, easily in the top 3m but the issue is we are playing probably the hardest schedule in the NFC. There is a good chance that some NFC team will turn it on playing a much softer schedule and it will be tough to stay ahead of them playing teams like NE on the road.
Winning is not a sometime thing it is an all of the time thing - Vince Lombardi

User avatar
S197
Fenrir
Posts: 11229
Joined: Fri Dec 22, 2006 1:28 pm
Location: Hawaii

Re: Vikings Draft Picks

Post by S197 » Wed May 16, 2018 2:28 pm

I think if they make the playoffs no one is getting fired, I don't see this as a SB or bust type situation although they are definitely in win now mode (as are the other major contenders like the Rams). But an 8-8 season? I don't know, we might see some heads roll.

I agree we shouldn't have an 8-8 season, this isn't a .500 team but the NFL and its owners are fickle and have a short memory. Like one of the articles I linked said, Cousins' big contract makes the margin for error very slim. It's key we have solid drafts.

Did Flip call the plays in Philly? I think it may have been Pederson.

User avatar
Mothman
Defensive Tackle
Posts: 37379
Joined: Wed Mar 26, 2003 11:48 am
Location: Chicago, IL

Re: Vikings Draft Picks

Post by Mothman » Wed May 16, 2018 4:12 pm

fiestavike wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 8:24 am
Thats probably true, although it sounds like they were hyped over Ragnow, and I would bet if Quenton Nelson were somehow available at 30, he would have taken him. Its probably not quite so concrete as to make it a rule, but I have no doubt you are correct in terms of Spielman generally believing its a position to be addressed later in the draft.

I don't have time to do it, but I would be very curious to know two things about starters along the interior OL in the NFL. The less interesting question is,

'how many of them were day 1 selections? When did they tend to be drafted? How does that compare to other positions?'

More interestingly: 'how many of them are playing while on their first contract? how does their average age compare to the average starting age at other positions?

I'm playing around with the opinion that its a position which benefits from old man strength more than sudden explosive strength, and that it relies a great deal on consistency and technical proficiency. While you will have your elite young guards, generally speaking I could believe that OL play might peak at a later age than most positions because of both these factors. I could believe that a Joe Berger would have been liable to give the Vikings better (or comparable) production on a 'win now' basis than most of the Guards drafted in the first or second round this year. Just to take a random example, Vlad Ducasse was pretty rough when he was on the Vikings, but at 30 he's still in the league, and he's still starting. That tells you something. Take it for what its worth, but PFF has him ranked as the 24th best G in a league which has 64 starting Guards. Tom Compton could possibly be in that mold. He's 29, and has had several years of experience to hone his physical and technical game. In all likelihood he is not going to be the next Joe Berger for the Vikings, but it is possible that given the chance he would perform better than most of the players selected in the last 2 or 3 drafts, even those who are without doubt more talented.
I think experience counts at every position but I think you have a point about "old man strength" too. As big as many young football players are when they enter the league, they're still young and bodies tend to fill out (in both positive and negative ways) with age. I imagine those changes, along with the benefits of NFL strength training programs and the aforementioned experience make most guards better 4+ years into their pro careers, assuming they get that far.

User avatar
Mothman
Defensive Tackle
Posts: 37379
Joined: Wed Mar 26, 2003 11:48 am
Location: Chicago, IL

Re: Vikings Draft Picks

Post by Mothman » Wed May 16, 2018 4:36 pm

S197 wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 1:50 pm
At the end of the day, Spielman's job is tied to Cousins. If Cousins flops, Spielman will be gone.


Didn't people say that about Spielman, Zimmer and Bridgewater too? Rick's got more lives than a cat. :) He spent 3 first round draft picks on QBs in 7 years, none of them are still with the team and he's lived to tell the tale!

Actually, that probably means you're right. If signing Cousins doesn't pay off, it's hard to imagine Slick Rick surviving as GM.
I also don't see a "we suck" attitude, if anything there's criticism but it seems fair with supporting arguments. I've been a relative big fan of Spielman, the post-draft thoughts from prior years are out there for anyone who wants to look them up. And 2016 is shaping up to be a poor draft so he it isn't like he's been stellar year in and year out. Overall I think he's done a good job, a very good job in fact, but I think there's still areas that need to be worked on. One of my biggest gripes about Spielman is he never drafts a backup QB. The last one was John David Booty eons ago. And he followed that MO again this year. It's nice we have Siemian, he's a serviceable backup, but he's also only here for a year and this was by most accounts a very deep QB draft class.
I obviously have the same gripe.
You can probably add placing a low priority on interior lineman to being a similar MO to QB. In essence the two positions have been treated very much the same. When there's an absolute need, we'll draft a guy or splash in free agency, but it's rarely forward looking to me. We should be looking beyond just starters because that's where on occasion you find guys like Kirk Cousins.
Exactly.

Post Reply