Biggest Need On The Team?

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Biggest Need On The Team?

Post by tzinc » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:24 am

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Re: Biggest Need On The Team?

Post by Mothman » Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:37 am

If we're talking about player personnel, it's quarterback, since Sloter is the only one they have signed.

The OL also needs more work and they need a DT.

Beyond player personnel, I think this postseason demonstrated the Vikings coaching still isn't at a Super Bowl level. Plus, they need an offensive coordinator. That's a huge need that will apparently be addressed this week.

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Re: Biggest Need On The Team?

Post by Raz » Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:52 am

The SB showed the vikes have some work to do. I think the vikes get beat 8 out of 10 times by either of them.

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Re: Biggest Need On The Team?

Post by Just Me » Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:58 am

Mothman wrote: Beyond player personnel, I think this postseason demonstrated the Vikings coaching still isn't at a Super Bowl level.
I think that is a fair assessment. My question is - Do you think they (the coaching staff) have a chance to attain that level of performance? This is not a "Fire Zimmer!" comment. Zimmer had a great year this year, and even in the games that we lost (sans the NFC Championship game, of course) I never got the feeling the Vikings were 'outclassed.' In the year previous to this one, there was so much adversity facing the team that I almost give Zimmer a 'pass' and this year was no "cakewalk," either. Zimmer will obviously be our coach next year, and I'm not unhappy with that. But...given how badly he was outcoached in the NFC Championship game, can he (will he?) ever get the Vikings to the Super Bowl?
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Re: Biggest Need On The Team?

Post by PurpleMustReign » Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:42 am

I wasn't impressed with Zimmer and his staff toward the end of the season. They got conservative and I think it hurt them.
I am wondering about the DL coach (Patterson, right?). With as much talent as we have on that DL, for them go have gone essentially silent for the last 6 or so games, including the playoffs, is inexcusable. I get Griffen was injured but Hunter was invisible, and really outside of Joseph, they all had a very sub-par season.

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Re: Biggest Need On The Team?

Post by Pondering Her Percy » Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:21 am

Well with how Philly approached us and New England, I would think that it would open Zims eyes a bit when it comes to taking some chances
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Re: Biggest Need On The Team?

Post by Mothman » Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:16 am

Just Me wrote:I think that is a fair assessment. My question is - Do you think they (the coaching staff) have a chance to attain that level of performance? This is not a "Fire Zimmer!" comment. Zimmer had a great year this year, and even in the games that we lost (sans the NFC Championship game, of course) I never got the feeling the Vikings were 'outclassed.' In the year previous to this one, there was so much adversity facing the team that I almost give Zimmer a 'pass' and this year was no "cakewalk," either. Zimmer will obviously be our coach next year, and I'm not unhappy with that. But...given how badly he was outcoached in the NFC Championship game, can he (will he?) ever get the Vikings to the Super Bowl?
I certainly have my doubts. He'll have to coach much better than he did this postseason.

I definitely think they have a chance to reach that level of performance but I also think the odds are against it. A lot will depend on Zimmer's ability to adapt and grow and obviously, there's a great deal riding on who they hire as OC and who ends up playing QB.

There's a trend I always have in the back of my mind when thinking about this subject. Years ago, I researched how long it usually takes an NFL head coach to win the Super Bowl and found if it's going to happen at all, more often than not it will happen in the first 4 seasons a head coach is with a team, sometimes faster. That has been the case for 21 of 32 Super Bowl-winning coaches (and Lombardi didn't have that chance since the Super Bowl didn't exist in his first 4 seasons with GB). Zimmer just passed that 4 season mark.

Since 1981, with the exception of Bill Cowher, 23 of the 24 head coaches who won the Super Bowl did so within 5 years of signing with a team. Cowher shows that patience can be rewarded since he won it in his 14th season with Pittsburgh, although he did get his team to a SB in his first 4 years. He just lost it.

If Zimmer's going to win it all with the Vikes, the trend says it will happen next season or likely not happen at all. Of course, it's just a trend and there's obviously no hard and fast rule about this so he could buck that trend and win the SB in year 6 or 7 with the Vikes, assuming he's the coach that long.

All we can do is wait and see what happens.

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Re: Biggest Need On The Team?

Post by Pondering Her Percy » Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:44 am

Mothman wrote:
Just Me wrote:I think that is a fair assessment. My question is - Do you think they (the coaching staff) have a chance to attain that level of performance? This is not a "Fire Zimmer!" comment. Zimmer had a great year this year, and even in the games that we lost (sans the NFC Championship game, of course) I never got the feeling the Vikings were 'outclassed.' In the year previous to this one, there was so much adversity facing the team that I almost give Zimmer a 'pass' and this year was no "cakewalk," either. Zimmer will obviously be our coach next year, and I'm not unhappy with that. But...given how badly he was outcoached in the NFC Championship game, can he (will he?) ever get the Vikings to the Super Bowl?
I certainly have my doubts. He'll have to coach much better than he did this postseason.

I definitely think they have a chance to reach that level of performance but I also think the odds are against it. A lot will depend on Zimmer's ability to adapt and grow and obviously, there's a great deal riding on who they hire as OC and who ends up playing QB.

There's a trend I always have in the back of my mind when thinking about this subject. Years ago, I researched how long it usually takes an NFL head coach to win the Super Bowl and found if it's going to happen at all, more often than not it will happen in the first 4 seasons a head coach is with a team, sometimes faster. That has been the case for 21 of 32 Super Bowl-winning coaches (and Lombardi didn't have that chance since the Super Bowl didn't exist in his first 4 seasons with GB). Zimmer just passed that 4 season mark.

Since 1981, with the exception of Bill Cowher, 23 of the 24 head coaches who won the Super Bowl did so within 5 years of signing with a team. Cowher shows that patience can be rewarded since he won it in his 14th season with Pittsburgh, although he did get his team to a SB in his first 4 years. He just lost it.

If Zimmer's going to win it all with the Vikes, the trend says it will happen next season or likely not happen at all. Of course, it's just a trend and there's obviously no hard and fast rule about this so he could buck that trend and win the SB in year 6 or 7 with the Vikes, assuming he's the coach that long.

All we can do is wait and see what happens.
I'm definitely not buying into a trend to say odds are against him. He has a young team with a ton of potential. So many things play into factor when it comes to winning a SB. Injuries to us, injuries to other teams, how you draft, who you sign, who leaves, etc. No way I can buy into that trend when there are so many other factors that go into all this
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Re: Biggest Need On The Team?

Post by Mothman » Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:08 pm

Pondering Her Percy wrote:I'm definitely not buying into a trend to say odds are against him. He has a young team with a ton of potential. So many things play into factor when it comes to winning a SB. Injuries to us, injuries to other teams, how you draft, who you sign, who leaves, etc. No way I can buy into that trend when there are so many other factors that go into all this
The trend exists. It's not a matter of personal feelings or belief. The odds, if calculated, would be derived from the available data so they exist too (does anybody care to calculate them?). It's simply a fact that the majority of SB-winning HCs (and 24 of the last 25) won it all within their first 5 seasons, and more often than not, in 4 or less. In that sense the odds are already working against Zimmer but that doesn't mean he can't buck the trend and beat them. Heck, maybe he'll win the Super Bowl next year and fit right into the trend!

I'm not suggesting a trend defines who can or can't win the Super Bowl. It's simply something to think about it because clearly, it's indicative of something. 23 out of 24 isn't an accident.

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Re: Biggest Need On The Team?

Post by Pondering Her Percy » Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:16 pm

Mothman wrote:
Pondering Her Percy wrote:I'm definitely not buying into a trend to say odds are against him. He has a young team with a ton of potential. So many things play into factor when it comes to winning a SB. Injuries to us, injuries to other teams, how you draft, who you sign, who leaves, etc. No way I can buy into that trend when there are so many other factors that go into all this
The trend exists. It's not a matter of personal feelings or belief. The odds, if calculated, would be derived from the available data so they exist too (does anybody care to calculate them?). It's simply a fact that the majority of SB-winning HCs (and 24 of the last 25) won it all within their first 5 seasons, and more often than not, in 4 or less. In that sense the odds are already working against Zimmer but that doesn't mean he can't buck the trend and beat them. Heck, maybe he'll win the Super Bowl next year and fit right into the trend!

I'm not suggesting a trend defines who can or can't win the Super Bowl. It's simply something to think about it because clearly, it's indicative of something. 23 out of 24 isn't an accident.
But like I said, anything could happen. What if Kirk Cousins is our QB next year and we make the SB and he blows out his knee on the first drive and we lose? Like there are so many factors that play into everything. A trend is the last thing I'm worried about
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Re: Biggest Need On The Team?

Post by Mothman » Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:21 pm

Pondering Her Percy wrote:
Mothman wrote:
Pondering Her Percy wrote:I'm definitely not buying into a trend to say odds are against him. He has a young team with a ton of potential. So many things play into factor when it comes to winning a SB. Injuries to us, injuries to other teams, how you draft, who you sign, who leaves, etc. No way I can buy into that trend when there are so many other factors that go into all this
The trend exists. It's not a matter of personal feelings or belief. The odds, if calculated, would be derived from the available data so they exist too (does anybody care to calculate them?). It's simply a fact that the majority of SB-winning HCs (and 24 of the last 25) won it all within their first 5 seasons, and more often than not, in 4 or less. In that sense the odds are already working against Zimmer but that doesn't mean he can't buck the trend and beat them. Heck, maybe he'll win the Super Bowl next year and fit right into the trend!

I'm not suggesting a trend defines who can or can't win the Super Bowl. It's simply something to think about it because clearly, it's indicative of something. 23 out of 24 isn't an accident.
But like I said, anything could happen. What if Kirk Cousins is our QB next year and we make the SB and he blows out his knee on the first drive and we lose? Like there are so many factors that play into everything. A trend is the last thing I'm worried about
I think you're missing the point.

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Re: Biggest Need On The Team?

Post by mansquatch » Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:28 pm

For players: More OL Depth, specifically RT and RG.

3 Technique DT

QB

I think QB will get resolved the first day of FA, in that I do not think they can announce anything before then. It is the biggest need, but I think it is not as interesting or mysterious as it was 2 months ago. I really think Cousins is coming here. If not him, they'll have one of the three that finished the year on the roster.

IMO, 3 Technique DT is the biggest need right now. OL will probably not be addressed early unless there is some gem available in FA.

For coaching: I think Zimmer still hasn't overcome his issue of laying an egg. It has gotten better. This past year I felt like they had two flat performances on defense, the game vs. WSH and a few bad plays that cost them vs. CAR. The offense was bad against PIT and DET in weeks 2 and 4 respectively. I give them a pass on the PIT game as Keenum didn't have a full week of prep. The DET game was hard also in that Cook went down. Against CAR the offense made some mistakes that cost them the game, but they also made plays that almost won the game late.

In the playoffs it was a different story and this is where Zimmer needs to step it up. They fell apart on defense vs. NO in the second half. The Offense and ST made some dumb plays in the second half also that put them in a position to need the play by Diggs. Against Philly they were totally flat. I didn't even feel like I was watching the same team.

New OC is a big deal, they need to get that right. Zimmer needs to evaluate how he did things in the post season and figure out how to be better. This is motivational/morale stuff, so there is not easy solution. What I really do not get is the seeming disconnect between how resilient and tough the Vikings were during the season only to completely lose it in the last six quarters of the playoffs. What is that? How do they fix that? I have no idea, but that is Zimmer's challenge to overcome. There is no way they are going to fire him, so that is what it is. Can he fix it?
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Re: Biggest Need On The Team?

Post by Pondering Her Percy » Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:13 pm

Mothman wrote: I think you're missing the point.
I get it, there's a trend. But there are so many other things that come into play that have a lot more meaning than a trend does. The trend means nothing to me. Thats my point.
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Re: Biggest Need On The Team?

Post by Mothman » Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:37 pm

Pondering Her Percy wrote:
Mothman wrote: I think you're missing the point.
I get it, there's a trend. But there are so many other things that come into play that have a lot more meaning than a trend does. The trend means nothing to me. Thats my point.
I'm not surprised.

I think it's too strong to write off as insignificant. It covers most of Super Bowl history and literally all of the variables you mentioned above (injuries, drafting, free agency, etc.) are automatically factored into it and yet we still have these particular results. I suspect it's because, among other things, the results speak to how well coaches and teams deal with all those variables. It likely speaks to vision, preparation, adaptability, etc.

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Re: Biggest Need On The Team?

Post by Pondering Her Percy » Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:51 pm

Mothman wrote:
Pondering Her Percy wrote:
Mothman wrote: I think you're missing the point.
I get it, there's a trend. But there are so many other things that come into play that have a lot more meaning than a trend does. The trend means nothing to me. Thats my point.
I'm not surprised.
Not sure what that's suppose to mean but I'll leave it at agree to disagree
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Re: Biggest Need On The Team?

Post by mansquatch » Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:59 pm

I think a fair question to ask is this:

Look at the contribution that Doug Pedersen made to the PHI victory in the SB. Absolutely gutsy play calls, risk taking, etc. He rallied that team when it was on the bring after losing it's franchise QB late in the season. He got his team to turn it on when it mattered most. They game planned their opponents very well. Etc. Etc.


I'm not saying Pedersen is the be all end all, just pointing out how much of their win, their season was a result of his contribution to the team.

So take that as back drop and then let's ask some questions, sequentially, about Zimmer:

Does Zimmer offer a net positive or net negative contribution to the team's overall success? I think the answer here is a positive.

Does he offer the same or greater contribution in the post season? Here I think Zimmer is closer to neutral. Not sure why?

I would add, that I think if you broke done what Zimmer does well and what he doesn't we'd probably find that he makes better contributions in some areas and worse in others than Pedersen. To me, the bigger question is overall team morale. This is hte biggest difference. Philly not only rolled with the punches, they got better. MN, who in some ways faced the same adversity, just earlier in the season, was able to rally, but they were not able to up the ante in the post season the way the Eagles were. Why is that?

That last question to me is the one Zimmer needs to deal with.

Another issue to consider: We saw throughout the playoffs that strong defensive teams can get tired against elite QB play. Brady waited out JAX and then beat them in the 4Q when they were not able to muster the same ferocity they had in the 1st half. As a defensive team, we should expect to face the same and thus need offensive efficacy overcome it. I think we had that some extent this past season with Shurmer and Keenum. Will we have it again in 2018?
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Re: Biggest Need On The Team?

Post by ChicagoViking » Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:00 pm

Mothman wrote:Beyond player personnel, I think this postseason demonstrated the Vikings coaching still isn't at a Super Bowl level.
That was what scared me the most about the Philly Fiasco. Vikings coaching staff seemed completely out of their league. Let's hope they're smart enough to figure out where they fell short and fix things.

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Re: Biggest Need On The Team?

Post by mansquatch » Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:58 pm

ChicagoViking wrote:
Mothman wrote:Beyond player personnel, I think this postseason demonstrated the Vikings coaching still isn't at a Super Bowl level.
That was what scared me the most about the Philly Fiasco. Vikings coaching staff seemed completely out of their league. Let's hope they're smart enough to figure out where they fell short and fix things.
I didn't read it that way. The team was emotionally not ready to play that game. The coaches failed twice: The fact they showed up emotionally unprepared and then again when they were not able to get out of the tank at half time.

They didn't get out schemed or out adjusted, they just got punched in the face and failed to rally back from it.

The question is what can Zimmer and co do differently so that such a thing doesn't happen again?
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Re: Biggest Need On The Team?

Post by Ohjay » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:45 pm

Mothman wrote:
Just Me wrote:I think that is a fair assessment. My question is - Do you think they (the coaching staff) have a chance to attain that level of performance? This is not a "Fire Zimmer!" comment. Zimmer had a great year this year, and even in the games that we lost (sans the NFC Championship game, of course) I never got the feeling the Vikings were 'outclassed.' In the year previous to this one, there was so much adversity facing the team that I almost give Zimmer a 'pass' and this year was no "cakewalk," either. Zimmer will obviously be our coach next year, and I'm not unhappy with that. But...given how badly he was outcoached in the NFC Championship game, can he (will he?) ever get the Vikings to the Super Bowl?
I certainly have my doubts. He'll have to coach much better than he did this postseason.

I definitely think they have a chance to reach that level of performance but I also think the odds are against it. A lot will depend on Zimmer's ability to adapt and grow and obviously, there's a great deal riding on who they hire as OC and who ends up playing QB.

There's a trend I always have in the back of my mind when thinking about this subject. Years ago, I researched how long it usually takes an NFL head coach to win the Super Bowl and found if it's going to happen at all, more often than not it will happen in the first 4 seasons a head coach is with a team, sometimes faster. That has been the case for 21 of 32 Super Bowl-winning coaches (and Lombardi didn't have that chance since the Super Bowl didn't exist in his first 4 seasons with GB). Zimmer just passed that 4 season mark.

Since 1981, with the exception of Bill Cowher, 24 of the 25 head coaches who won the Super Bowl did so within 5 years of signing with a team. Cowher shows that patience can be rewarded since he won it in his 14th season with Pittsburgh, although he did get his team to a SB in his first 4 years. He just lost it.

If Zimmer's going to win it all with the Vikes, the trend says it will happen next season or likely not happen at all. Of course, it's just a trend and there's obviously no hard and fast rule about this so he could buck that trend and win the SB in year 6 or 7 with the Vikes, assuming he's the coach that long.

All we can do is wait and see what happens.
This is really interesting. But I feel like you're missing a vital piece in this analysis... years as a HC.
Of those 21 Super Bowl coaches who won within the first 4 seasons with a new team were actually new head coaches?
Even though Zimmer has been coaching longer than I've been alive he hasn't been a head coach and it is a different beast compared to position coaching or being a coordinator, and that must have an impact on your chances.

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Re: Biggest Need On The Team?

Post by Mothman » Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:38 pm

Ohjay wrote:This is really interesting. But I feel like you're missing a vital piece in this analysis... years as a HC.
Of those 21 Super Bowl coaches who won within the first 4 seasons with a new team were actually new head coaches?
That's a good question. 14 of the 21 coaches were first time NFL head coaches. Some of them had college head coaching experience so if you're including that, the number would definitely be lower.
Even though Zimmer has been coaching longer than I've been alive he hasn't been a head coach and it is a different beast compared to position coaching or being a coordinator, and that must have an impact on your chances.
I think it probably does. Good post!

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Re: Biggest Need On The Team?

Post by akvikingsfan » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:52 pm

Mothman wrote:
Ohjay wrote:This is really interesting. But I feel like you're missing a vital piece in this analysis... years as a HC.
Of those 21 Super Bowl coaches who won within the first 4 seasons with a new team were actually new head coaches?
That's a good question. 14 of the 21 coaches were first time NFL head coaches. Some of them had college head coaching experience so if you're including that, the number would definitely be lower.
Even though Zimmer has been coaching longer than I've been alive he hasn't been a head coach and it is a different beast compared to position coaching or being a coordinator, and that must have an impact on your chances.
I think it probably does. Good post!
The other question I have is with regards to these coaches, how many of them came from a defensive background vs an offensive background? Is there any difference in the numbers, or is it pretty evenly split?

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Re: Biggest Need On The Team?

Post by Dmizzle0 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:19 pm

Our biggest need is a shaman to lift the injury hex off our team :(

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Re: Biggest Need On The Team?

Post by ocampo82 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:48 pm

mansquatch wrote:For players: More OL Depth, specifically RT and RG.

3 Technique DT

QB

I think QB will get resolved the first day of FA, in that I do not think they can announce anything before then. It is the biggest need, but I think it is not as interesting or mysterious as it was 2 months ago. I really think Cousins is coming here. If not him, they'll have one of the three that finished the year on the roster.

IMO, 3 Technique DT is the biggest need right now. OL will probably not be addressed early unless there is some gem available in FA.

For coaching: I think Zimmer still hasn't overcome his issue of laying an egg. It has gotten better. This past year I felt like they had two flat performances on defense, the game vs. WSH and a few bad plays that cost them vs. CAR. The offense was bad against PIT and DET in weeks 2 and 4 respectively. I give them a pass on the PIT game as Keenum didn't have a full week of prep. The DET game was hard also in that Cook went down. Against CAR the offense made some mistakes that cost them the game, but they also made plays that almost won the game late.

In the playoffs it was a different story and this is where Zimmer needs to step it up. They fell apart on defense vs. NO in the second half. The Offense and ST made some dumb plays in the second half also that put them in a position to need the play by Diggs. Against Philly they were totally flat. I didn't even feel like I was watching the same team.

New OC is a big deal, they need to get that right. Zimmer needs to evaluate how he did things in the post season and figure out how to be better. This is motivational/morale stuff, so there is not easy solution. What I really do not get is the seeming disconnect between how resilient and tough the Vikings were during the season only to completely lose it in the last six quarters of the playoffs. What is that? How do they fix that? I have no idea, but that is Zimmer's challenge to overcome. There is no way they are going to fire him, so that is what it is. Can he fix it?

Agreed.

A solid 3 tech will open things up for Griffen, and hopefully Hunter...Hunter was not very good this season. It has been mentioned there are a few good ones coming out in this draft--I am hoping they pick Maurice Hurst or Taven Bryan both seem like playmakers.

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Re: Biggest Need On The Team?

Post by germannorseman » Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:10 pm

Well aside from the obvious I would still say OL and DL. You watch the great play during the playoff run if all teams and you see how a good OL can handle a good DL. It makes all the difference in the world.

DL has to have pass rushing capability on the inside to allow the ends to do their thing. The lack of pass rush killed us in both games. DL depth is really key here because they get worn out without it.

OC is HUGE. Just watch these teams in the playoffs this year and you see innovative coaching. You get the standard stuff, but you see some really good innovative thinking and non-conservative play. These offenses continually put pressure on the defense. We don't need old been there done that for a hundred years OC.

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Re: Biggest Need On The Team?

Post by Mothman » Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:25 pm

akvikingsfan wrote:The other question I have is with regards to these coaches, how many of them came from a defensive background vs an offensive background? Is there any difference in the numbers, or is it pretty evenly split?
I'd have to do some more research since I'm not sure about the background of some of the earlier SB-winning coaches. If you want to check it out yourself, here's the list of coaches:

Vince Lombardi
Weeb Ewbank
Hank Stram
Don McCafferty
Tom Landry
Don Shula
Chuck Noll
John Madden
Tom Flores
Bill Walsh
Joe Gibbs
Mike Ditka
Bill Parcells
George Siefert
Jimmy Johnson
Barry Switzer
Mike Holmgren
Mike Shanahan
Dick Vermeil
Brian Billick
Bill Belichick
Jon Gruden
Bill Cowher
Tony Dungy
Tom Coughlin
Mike Tomlin
Sean Payton
Mike McCarthy
John Harbaugh
Pete Carroll
Gary Kubiak
Doug Pederson

There are 5 Mikes so that bodes well for Zimmer. ;)

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Re: Biggest Need On The Team?

Post by VikingLord » Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:36 am

I say give Zimmer and his staff another year. Get a legit starting QB. Hope he, and other key players, stay healthy. The team next year will be tested in fire all season with their tough schedule and many very tough road games. If they emerge from that and make the playoffs, and given what Zimmer learned this postseason, let's see what happens then. If they blow it again, I'd be much more inclined at that point to consider a coaching change.

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Just Me
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Re: Biggest Need On The Team?

Post by Just Me » Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:21 am

VikingLord wrote:I say give Zimmer and his staff another year.
Hmmmm.... I wonder if winning a Super Bowl for a coach in the first 4-5 years on a team has more to do with the possibility that a coach is fired in that time (just me speculating on a cause) frame if he doesn't attain a Super Bowl appearance within those time constraints. Too lazy to look it up, but throwing that out as another possibility for the trend.
I've told people a million times not to exaggerate!

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Re: Biggest Need On The Team?

Post by Mothman » Tue Feb 06, 2018 7:49 am

Just Me wrote:
VikingLord wrote:I say give Zimmer and his staff another year.
Hmmmm.... I wonder if winning a Super Bowl for a coach in the first 4-5 years on a team has more to do with the possibility that a coach is fired in that time (just me speculating on a cause) frame if he doesn't attain a Super Bowl appearance within those time constraints. Too lazy to look it up, but throwing that out as another possibility for the trend.

That's occurred to me too and it may be a factor in why there aren't more exceptions.

I realized this morning that I miscounted the number of SB-winning coaches since '81 (despite doing so twice—grrr). The correct number since '81 is that 23 of 24 coaches have won the Super Bowl in 5 years or less, not 24 of 25. Here's how it breaks down:

1st season: 3 (Siefert, Gruden, Kubiak)
2nd season: 7 (Flores, Gibbs, Switzer, Billick, Belichick, Tomlin, Pederson)
3rd season: 3 (Walsh, Shanahan, Vermeil)
4th season: 6 (Ditka, Parcells, Johnson, Coughlin, Payton, Carroll)
5th season: 4 (Holmgren, Dungy, McCarthy, Harbaugh)

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Re: Biggest Need On The Team?

Post by fiestavike » Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:38 am

Mothman wrote:
Pondering Her Percy wrote:I'm definitely not buying into a trend to say odds are against him. He has a young team with a ton of potential. So many things play into factor when it comes to winning a SB. Injuries to us, injuries to other teams, how you draft, who you sign, who leaves, etc. No way I can buy into that trend when there are so many other factors that go into all this
The trend exists. It's not a matter of personal feelings or belief. The odds, if calculated, would be derived from the available data so they exist too (does anybody care to calculate them?). It's simply a fact that the majority of SB-winning HCs (and 24 of the last 25) won it all within their first 5 seasons, and more often than not, in 4 or less. In that sense the odds are already working against Zimmer but that doesn't mean he can't buck the trend and beat them. Heck, maybe he'll win the Super Bowl next year and fit right into the trend!

I'm not suggesting a trend defines who can or can't win the Super Bowl. It's simply something to think about it because clearly, it's indicative of something. 23 out of 24 isn't an accident.
Isn't this obviously going to be extremely skewed by the fact that coaches who don't win a championship within 5 years often don't get to continue coaching as a NFL head coach? I'm not sure this trend is very insightful. It seems more like an obvious pattern which indicates, more than anything, that NFL teams are impatient and prone to following suit (hiring a coach who has won a SB) rather than thinking outside the box.

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Re: Biggest Need On The Team?

Post by fiestavike » Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:40 am

Mothman wrote:
Just Me wrote:
VikingLord wrote:I say give Zimmer and his staff another year.
Hmmmm.... I wonder if winning a Super Bowl for a coach in the first 4-5 years on a team has more to do with the possibility that a coach is fired in that time (just me speculating on a cause) frame if he doesn't attain a Super Bowl appearance within those time constraints. Too lazy to look it up, but throwing that out as another possibility for the trend.

That's occurred to me too and it may be a factor in why there aren't more exceptions.

I realized this morning that I miscounted the number of SB-winning coaches since '81 (despite doing so twice—grrr). The correct number since '81 is that 23 of 24 coaches have won the Super Bowl in 5 years or less, not 24 of 25. Here's how it breaks down:

1st season: 3 (Siefert, Gruden, Kubiak)
2nd season: 7 (Flores, Gibbs, Switzer, Billick, Belichick, Tomlin, Pederson)
3rd season: 3 (Walsh, Shanahan, Vermeil)
4th season: 6 (Ditka, Parcells, Johnson, Coughlin, Payton, Carroll)
5th season: 4 (Holmgren, Dungy, McCarthy, Harbaugh)
Hadn't made it to the bottom of the thread before I posted.

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