Mass mania QB bubble.

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mike2mike
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Mass mania QB bubble.

Post by mike2mike » Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:27 am

There are a ton of new starting QBs this year vs last year st this time.
Pat Mahoney, Andrew Luck, Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Tannehill, Case Keenum, Teddy Bridgewater.... probably Nick Foles via trade.... 'Nathan Peterman means Tyrod Taylor available, one of Paxton Lynch,Brock osweiller,Trevor Siemien....
The possibility of a recent draft pick, UDFAs or a vet emerging this year.... several past low end starters that will be available for cheap...
And a boatload of draft picks that vastly will outnumber the number of retirees.

The supply is there and going to increase and for some reason the Redskins lost their mind and want to give Alex Smith $120M over 6 years. Tom Brady money. That likely means Cousins will end up getting more.

Pro style QBs aren't just for the pros anymore. High schools have been running them for years and years and colleges and these players that breathe football in a pro style offense now are hitting the NFL.

Who cares about QB? It was one thing when Tavarius Jackson and Christian Ponder were all that was available..... but now there are 45QBs deep that can be serviceable starters.

Keenum beat Brees. Bortles beat Big Ben, Foles beat Matt Ryan. Rookies have won Super Bowls.QB is the most over rated position in football and to get one you have to pay like 5 really good players in the Adam Thielen, Linvall Joseph, Latavius Murray and Remmers price range.
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720pete
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Re: Mass mania QB bubble.

Post by 720pete » Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:46 pm

Lets look at the SB Starting QBs over the last decade.

2009 - Ben Roethlisberger (80.1) vs. Kurt Warner (96.9)
2010 - Drew Brees (109.6) vs. Peyton Manning (99.9)
2011 - Aaron Rodgers (101.2) vs. Ben Roethlisberger (97.0)
2012 - Eli Manning (92.9) vs. Tom Brady (105.6)
2013 - Joe Flacco (87.7) vs. Colin Kapernick (98.3)
2014 - Russell Wilson (101.2) vs. Peyton Manning (115.1)
2015 - Tom Brady (97.4) vs. Russell Wilson (95.0)
2016 - Peyton Manning (67.9) vs. Cam Newton (99.4)
2017 - Matt Ryan (117.1) vs. Tom Brady (112.2)
2018 - Nick Foles (79.5) vs. Tom Brady (102.8.)

Setting Foles and the injured Peyton Manning seasons aside you get an average SB QB season passer rating of 100.5.

Now here are the Vikings QBs:
2008 - Gus Frerotte (73.7)
2009 - Brett Favre (107.2)
2010 - Brett Favre (69.9)
2011 - Christian Ponder (70.1)
2012 - Christian Ponder (80.2)
2013 - Christian Ponder (77.9)
2014 - Teddy Bridgewater (85.2)
2015 - Teddy Bridgewater (88.7)
2016 - Sam Bradford (99.33)
2017 - Case Keenum (98.3)

Based on those stats, and the QB ratings of SB QBs, how many season would you say we have had super bowl caliber QB play in the past decade?
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Dames
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Re: Mass mania QB bubble.

Post by Dames » Wed Jan 31, 2018 1:31 pm

720pete wrote:Lets look at the SB Starting QBs over the last decade.

2009 - Ben Roethlisberger (80.1) vs. Kurt Warner (96.9)
2010 - Drew Brees (109.6) vs. Peyton Manning (99.9)
2011 - Aaron Rodgers (101.2) vs. Ben Roethlisberger (97.0)
2012 - Eli Manning (92.9) vs. Tom Brady (105.6)
2013 - Joe Flacco (87.7) vs. Colin Kapernick (98.3)
2014 - Russell Wilson (101.2) vs. Peyton Manning (115.1)
2015 - Tom Brady (97.4) vs. Russell Wilson (95.0)
2016 - Peyton Manning (67.9) vs. Cam Newton (99.4)
2017 - Matt Ryan (117.1) vs. Tom Brady (112.2)
2018 - Nick Foles (79.5) vs. Tom Brady (102.8.)

Setting Foles and the injured Peyton Manning seasons aside you get an average SB QB season passer rating of 100.5.
Yep, I was just going to say how important QB is to the success of teams. Great defenses are awesome, but you really need great QB play to consistently be in the hunt at the end of the year. Yes, sometimes things fall into place for "serviceable" QBs, but more often than not, great QBs make the difference. This is why you at least talk to Brees. I agree, that chances are very slim.

My personal wish list in order:
1. Brees - We get at least 2 years of being one of the NFC favorites I think. Not likely to happen, but worth checking into.
2. Cousins - He's been a very solid player for multiple years - Huge price tag it would seem, but should be very good for several more years. Not elite, but near the top of the next tier I think.
3. Bradford - Love his arm. Scary injury history. Price may be right at this point though. If he's healthy, we are in great shape.... if.
4. Keenum - I'm scared of regression, and I'm not impressed with his arm strength. I'm also afraid his price will be too high of a gamble. But, I won't be mad if they choose him. Love his intangibles.
5. Teddy - I think they should try to keep him regardless of who starts, but it's hard to say what kind of action he'll get in FA. I would like him to compete next year, but that's a hard sell if you pay high for a different QB. I'm just not excited to go into next year with him as the starter. Would be a great story though.
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Re: Mass mania QB bubble.

Post by mansquatch » Wed Jan 31, 2018 1:53 pm

The SB QB stat is old news. It gets put up all the time in the off season. The basic rebuttal is that none of those guys are available so, really, who cares?

Now you could say the in this year Drew Brees is available. That is true. If they can get him, hey go for it. That choice is obvious. Even if Bree asked for a one year deal for $35MM it would probably be worth it. So let's just agree that is Brees is on the table he is the best choice in the short term. But... it seems highly unlikely that the Saints will let him leave town. So that leaves the rest of the field.

So do you take Cousins? Do you chance the injury situation with Bradford? Do you hope that Teddy can be durable AND make a big third year leap in production? Do you go back to the well with Keenum and hope he continues an upward trajectory? Do you draft somebody?

IMO, Cousins is the best choice. He is at the prime age for a QB to be good to great (turns 30 in August), lacks the injury issues of SB or TB, and has performed at a good to great level in recent seasons. With a relatively young OL, young WR, and very young RB there is a strong chance that if Cousins can continue to perform at a similarly high level, then the offense should be in very good shape for the next 4-6 seasons. Combine that with 2-4 more seasons of the defense playing in it's physical prime and you have the recipe for a decent superbowl window.

Any QB with a track record of performance is going to be obscenely over paid. If you do not think that will happen or think it shouldn't happen then you haven't been paying attention to the NFL. Whoever they get in FA is going to get paid and paid A LOT.
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mike2mike
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Re: Mass mania QB bubble.

Post by mike2mike » Wed Jan 31, 2018 5:20 pm

720pete wrote:Lets look at the SB Starting QBs over the last decade.

2009 - Ben Roethlisberger (80.1) vs. Kurt Warner (96.9)
2010 - Drew Brees (109.6) vs. Peyton Manning (99.9)
2011 - Aaron Rodgers (101.2) vs. Ben Roethlisberger (97.0)
2012 - Eli Manning (92.9) vs. Tom Brady (105.6)
2013 - Joe Flacco (87.7) vs. Colin Kapernick (98.3)
2014 - Russell Wilson (101.2) vs. Peyton Manning (115.1)
2015 - Tom Brady (97.4) vs. Russell Wilson (95.0)
2016 - Peyton Manning (67.9) vs. Cam Newton (99.4)
2017 - Matt Ryan (117.1) vs. Tom Brady (112.2)
2018 - Nick Foles (79.5) vs. Tom Brady (102.8.)

Setting Foles and the injured Peyton Manning seasons aside you get an average SB QB season passer rating of 100.5.)
Yes! Exactly! How many QBs can repeat that kind of performance? Was Kaepernick and Flacco simply only "good" one year despite working hard every year? Then randomly for no reason were they not good? What about Eli's multiple appearances? Or does their success have to do with something else?
Don't get me wrong. QB is still very important and there are a few QBs worth paying a massive price...
But this shows exactly why it is a bubble! Great job!
Matt Stafford, highest paid... not in there...
Derek Carr next highest paid... not on there...
Andrew Luck... not there...
Drew Brees only there once despite being a future hall of famer without having an absurd contract for his skill level.
Kirk Cousins... not on there...
Joe Flacco... he made a Super Bowl on the backs of efficient conservative play that relied on running game and defense and occasionally got downfield shots while the defense was sleeping. After they won the Super Bowl and paid him... he hasn't been back...
Aarron Rodgers has been talked about as the greatest QB in the game who followed a franchise that only had to invest in Favre and Rodgers at the QB position... and have received draft picks in return for trading backups... yet he's been to only one Super Bowl? That can't be right can it?
Russel Wilson got there twice... THEN started getting paid and the Seahawks have been in decline ever since.
Ben Roethlosberger is a really good QB but is he better the. Brees, Rogers, Wilson, Newton, Rovers? Arguably not. But he does have Antonio Brown.
Eli Manning has multiple super bowl rings... is he even remotely as good as Brady? Or even Andrew Luck who hasn't been there? I'd say no.
Carson Palmer is next on the list of richest contracts.... nothing to show for it.
Phil Rivers... a team had a choice between Brees and Rivers... they chose Rivers who has been pretty great as a QB... but no super bowl.
Cam Newton great QB... one Super Bowl and got whooped.
Matt Ryan mediocre compared to the elite QBs and overpaid but they have Julio Jones and a defense and it was enough to go to the Super Bowl and Brady beat Brady and they went deep in playoffs multiple times.
Tom Brady... how is Tom Brady the 15th richest contract and 16th pending Alex Smith's new deal? Tom Brady is the ONLY QB worth paying at the expense of your OL, WR, Defense,etc and yet he isn't being paid much. Also, the Patriots didn't spend a 1st rounder on him, in fact they gained more than a first and 3rd rounder since they traded Bledsoe and other QBs since then.
Ryan Tannehill being paid a lot despite not doing anything yet.
Bradford can play fantastic when healthy but look at the cost... we basically have the Eagles enough salary cap room and draft picks while depriving ourselves that cap room and salary cap so that they could win home field advantage and beat us. Another QB in this massive list that is being paid more than they're worth.
Alex Smith great game manager plus but despite being on a great defense the team couldn't afford to get him the weapons or upgrade their team enough to get over the edge. Paying him $25M a year is probably a mistake.
Andy Dalton is not a good QB but isn't terrible either... he can function at a high level if he has great protection and a defense... but clearly can't win the big one unless he was on the kind of team that Joe Flacco was on when he won the Super Bowl.
I could continue...

Now look at the playoff teams this year
Jags - Blake Bortles very cheap. $5M /yr
Titans - Marcus Mariota $6M /yr
Bills -Tyrod Taylor $15M a year and going to be traded probably.
Chiefs-Alex Smith got past the higher paid QBs in Phil Rivers and David Carr and formerly high paid Brock Osweiller to win their division. Early exit to a Lower paid QB.
Ben- paid
Brady- Best ever and Only QB that absolutely without doubt justified the price.
yet paid 15th overall on QBs. In the Super Bowl.


Eagles- High proved QB traded for 1st and 3rd allowed them to scoop up a lot of players.
Wentz got them there on cheap rookie deal. Foles $5M/yr, most paid up front. in the Super Bowl after winning 2.
Vikings-. $2M to Case Keenum. Rookie deal to Teddy. Haven't paid a QB anything financially since 2009-2010 until trading for pre-ready Bradford. Bradford didn't help them get there which cost them the Super Bowl. No one wanted Keenum... Vikings get him for $2M and he still produces close to Super Bowl caliber numbers clearly with talent around him and coaching (or lack thereof before coming to play for us) having a lot to do with the sudden increase in production. The trade for Bradford cost us and now because of it people are saying we have a "win now" that can only be done with a QB... or perhaps all of a sudden giving up too much in money and draft picks for a QB put us here and that's the problem, not the solution. (Drew Brees is the exception perhaps)
Rams-The Rams have accumulated several picks for several years passing on RG3 and other trade downs to build around a QB not on their roster. Then they drafted Goff. Their past trade passing on QB afforded them Goff in terms of draft picks and the financial cost at QB hasn't been there for them since Bradford as well.
Falcons - Matt Ryan got beat by a superior QB getting paid substantially more money. Oh wait, no he didn't. The defensive stop won the game? Matt Ryan is a very average QB with Julio Jones and a defense and almost won the Super Bowl last year
Panthers -Cam is a great QB playing in a division with the Saints and Falcons. Oops early exit to the Saints with Cameron Jordan ending it.
Saints- Drew Brees is unbelievable. Perhaps better then Brady in terms of accuracy. His defense is finally good enough to end the game vs the Panthers with a sack to win... But he lost to Case Keenum through no fault of his own despite being the far better QB that day.

Ben and Brady are the only QBs in the AFC crapshow that can get there in spite of the massive cost to the salary cap and in spite of teams paying big money to quality QBs like Alex Smith, Phil Rivers, Andrew Luck, Andy Dalton,
...The Exact sort of price that prevents you from getting a supporting case strong enough. Joe Flacco was a fine QB that was good enough to be a contender that could even get you to the Super Bowl when you have a great defense... but then the moment they paid him big, what happened? They no longer could afford to keep a defense. AJ Green is every bit as good as Julio Jones and he has been around longer...but the Falcons got their with an average QB in Matt Ryan because they
1)Look at the NFC. Drew Brees and Aarron Rodgers got to the Super Bowl ONE TIME! Only Russel Wilson, a 3rd round pick got there twice, and he is a much better QB now then he was his first two years when he got paid nothing.. Considering how much of a long shot it is to hit on the QB in the draft, how long it takes, and and the number of teams that have manufactured quality seasons from their QB
2)The AFC is a crapshow outside of Patriots and Steelers. And only Brady the 5th rounder is a future hall of famer. Ben is in the discussion.both Ben and Brady got to the Super Bowl multiple times under their cheap rookie contracts before they were considered future hall of gamers and Brady in the conversation for greatest of all time.
3)How prohibitive is having a QB's salary AND having used up 1st rounders that otherwise could have helped

The success of the QB depends on the OL, and the WRs as well as the opponents they face. QBs unavailable may be able to succeed in spite of their situation... but McNabb didn't win and Brees won once... so really Peyton Manning and Brady we remember and Dan Marino and Rogers,Brees and McMabb we forget.

A QB is super important, but clearly not enough on their own and clearly don't win simply because you pay them or Stafford would win every year and Brady would be average pending a contract extension. It seems the opposite is true.the more you pay the QB, the less you have elsewhere.

How much could you receive if you traded away a great QB in terms of draft pick PLUS contract?
No one is smart enough to do it except the Patriots who traded Bledsoe to finance their dynasty and never overpaid players and traded away backups and never spent draft picks at QB and instead gained draft picks trading Jacoby Bridgett and Jimmy Garoppolo this year alone.

Brady and Roethlisberger weren't what they are today their first few years and yet they won super bowls then so did Russel Wilson.
Brad Johnson and Rich Gannon? Trent Dilfer? Kurt Warner? Eli Manning? Joe Flacco? Tom Brady?
Outside of Eli Manning These were not QBs that teams invested massive draft choices and huge salary cap and outside of Brady these QBs couldn't do it without a lot of help.

And yet 25/32 teams think the secret to winning a Super Bowl is to put all their free agent money and/or draft picks into moving on one guy and paying Alex Smith a 3rd rounder plus $120M

Hahahahahahahahahaha, idiots.

"That's just the price you have to pay because everyone else does things that way"

Mass delusion bubble.
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