Next years QB

[Cliff]

I think they'll try to keep Case and Teddy and tell them they'll fight it out in camp. Case will look for (and find) a more secure place to start and Teddy will go into the season as #1. They'll bring in someone like Ryan Fitzpatrick to back him up. We'll keep Sloter as the "project" guy. We've only got 5 picks this year so they won't draft a QB. I'm sure they'll bring in some undrafted guys that will get cut (or surprise and beat out Sloter).

[fiestavike]

I'm not sure why it's unreasonable to say Keenum may have hit his ceiling. He hit statistical highs on his 3rd team and his 5th year in the league. He also was not as effective at the end of the year and the playoffs as he was in the beginning of the year. That leads me to believe that he probably peaked early in the year. Keenum's value coming into 2017 was a one year 2 million dollar deal as a back up to Sam Bradford. The league didn't seem to value him very highly for a reason. He played well for the Vikings in 2017 and helped them get to the NFC championship game, which no one can take from him. Only time will tell where his career will be 5 years from now. My guess, based on the entirety of his career and historical data for previous QBs who were one year wonders, is that he won't have another year like he did this year. Though I accept the fact that I could be wrong.

This is basically correct. I like Case and he did a great job coming in and starting, but in the playoffs and for about the last month of the season he was less than impressive. He's a very good backup or a bridge starter. He also seems like a great guy and a fantastic teammate. It would be the kind of overreaction that gets a GM canned to commit resources to him as a longterm starter.

[ChicagoViking]

I think they'll try to keep Case and Teddy and tell them they'll fight it out in camp.

That's what I hope they do. Like many others, it was my impression that Keenum's play tailed off toward the end of the season, but I really think it was just the playoffs against elite defenses. While I understand that successful playoff QBs need to step up to perform against elite defenses (see, for example, what that Foles kid did against the Vikes), it turns out there was not an obvious overall downturn trend in performance for Keenum as the season wore on. Here are his QB ratings for the season, in chronological order:

PIT 65.9
TAM 142.1
DET 76.9
CHI 110.3
GNB 78.7
BAL 67.7
CLE 88.1
WAS 117.0
LAR 100.8
DET 121.8
ATL 120.4
CAR 75.9
CIN 138.4
GNB 85.3
CHI 101.1
NOR 85.2
PHI 63.8

While the GB game performance was not stellar, the conditions were gawdawful. I was at that game, and it was the coldest game at Lambeau in four years. He also had three of his four best games of the season in the four games prior to the GB game. Either way, his numbers are all over the board with very little consistency.

For comparison, I wanted to see how another vaunted Vikings QB fared over the course of a similar season:

CLE 95.3
DET 115.3
SFO 78.3
GNB 135.3
STL 101.4
BAL 136.9
PIT 76.6
GNB 128.6
DET 120.5
SEA 141.7
CHI 112.5
ARI 79.4
CIN 73.2
CAR 73.7
CHI 106.4
NYG 148.7
DAL 134.4
NOR 70.0

As you can guess based on the last two games, these are Favre's QB ratings for the 2009 season. Overall better numbers, but like Keenum, six games under 80, including four of the last seven games. Would I rather have 2009 Favre at the helm than 2017 Keenum? Of course. Not really close. But the gap isn't as wide as one might guess, and you see a fair amount of inconsistency even from a Pro Bowl veteran like Favre.

And here are Peyton Manning's QB ratings for his Pro Bowl season in 2014:

IND 111.9
KAN 143.9
SEA 85.7
ARI 110.2
NYJ 117.9
SFO 157.2
SDG 124.2
NWE 80.9
OAK 111.9
STL 75.3
MIA 135.4
KAN 85.3
BUF 56.9
SDG 125.6
CIN 61.8
OAK 80.1
IND 75.5

Four of his last 8 games under 80 including a playoff loss to Indy. My point? Even great QBs can perform somewhat inconsistently over the course of the season.

[fiestavike]

I think they'll try to keep Case and Teddy and tell them they'll fight it out in camp.

That's what I hope they do. Like many others, it was my impression that Keenum's play tailed off toward the end of the season, but I really think it was just the playoffs against elite defenses. While I understand that successful playoff QBs need to step up to perform against elite defenses (see, for example, what that Foles kid did against the Vikes), it turns out there was not an obvious overall downturn trend in performance for Keenum as the season wore on. Here are his QB ratings for the season, in chronological order:

PIT 65.9
TAM 142.1
DET 76.9
CHI 110.3
GNB 78.7
BAL 67.7
CLE 88.1
WAS 117.0
LAR 100.8
DET 121.8
ATL 120.4
CAR 75.9
CIN 138.4
GNB 85.3
CHI 101.1
NOR 85.2
PHI 63.8

While the GB game performance was not stellar, the conditions were gawdawful. I was at that game, and it was the coldest game at Lambeau in four years. He also had three of his four best games of the season in the four games prior to the GB game. Either way, his numbers are all over the board with very little consistency.

For comparison, I wanted to see how another vaunted Vikings QB fared over the course of a similar season:

CLE 95.3
DET 115.3
SFO 78.3
GNB 135.3
STL 101.4
BAL 136.9
PIT 76.6
GNB 128.6
DET 120.5
SEA 141.7
CHI 112.5
ARI 79.4
CIN 73.2
CAR 73.7
CHI 106.4
NYG 148.7
DAL 134.4
NOR 70.0

As you can guess based on the last two games, these are Favre's QB ratings for the 2009 season. Overall better numbers, but like Keenum, six games under 80, including four of the last seven games. Would I rather have 2009 Favre at the helm than 2017 Keenum? Of course. Not really close. But the gap isn't as wide as one might guess, and you see a fair amount of inconsistency even from a Pro Bowl veteran like Favre.

And here are Peyton Manning's QB ratings for his Pro Bowl season in 2014:

IND 111.9
KAN 143.9
SEA 85.7
ARI 110.2
NYJ 117.9
SFO 157.2
SDG 124.2
NWE 80.9
OAK 111.9
STL 75.3
MIA 135.4
KAN 85.3
BUF 56.9
SDG 125.6
CIN 61.8
OAK 80.1
IND 75.5

Four of his last 8 games under 80 including a playoff loss to Indy. My point? Even great QBs can perform somewhat inconsistently over the course of the season.

I don't put great stock into ratings such as this. I like Keenum, and I like his overall game, but he doesn't have a stong arm and is not an accurate passer. He also makes some very bad, risky, aggressive decisions a few times each game. All of those flaws came out very overtly in the last quarter of the season and in the playoffs.

[mansquatch]

The point he is making is that even the greats can struggle, which is true.

I think there are few key items to consider that do not always show up in stats:

1.) Does the guy just completely fall apart against a tough defense or can he grit out some plays to give you a chance to win in the 4Q?

2.) Can the guy rise to the occasion in the post season?

3.) Does the guy consistently make stupid mistakes that offset his otherwise greatness? Is this manageable?

4.) Intangibles?

5.) Is he mobile/elusive, ie can he offset OL deficiencies?

6.) Is his arm and accuracy special?

IMO, the issue with Keenum is #3 and #6 with a little #2 thrown in. It is worth noting that over the course of the 2017 campaign he was able to control #3 for the most part. Would we like to see less of it, sure, but I am not sold on it being a total deal breaker. People will point to the pick 6 in Philly, I will remind them that we lost that game because the defense gave up 31 points and not on short fields.

For #6, he isn't GREAT in this department, but he isn't horribly debilitating (see Christian Ponder) either. Bradford is obviously the king of #6, he has special talent in this area.

For #1, we never saw him play a truly elite defense. However, we did see him make plays when the Vikings needed him to, most notably the MPLS Miracle, but also his performance on the road in both CHI and CAR were notable.

For #2, Again, I do not feel like Keenum rising to the occasion in terms of playmaking was a problem. See #3 for the problem.

#4 and #5 are obvious Keenum hallmarks

I think Keenum is completely viable as our starter next year, but the Vikings need to ensure that the OC is a good fit. I would argue that he is a safer choice than TB. Healthy SB is IMO, the best of the three.

[Vikes Guy]

The Vikings lost to a very good Philly team and every playoff game is tough. Case deserves a shot through training camp. He's that guy that plays with a chip on his shoulder and never gets much respect but I wouldn't give up on him. I think you need a few more solid weapons around him. I know the Vikes signed a local Minnesota receiver who played Great for the Edmonton Eskimos last year. Hate seeing him leave the CFL but hope he makes the Vikings. He grew up a passionate Viking fan as well. Brandon Zylstra is his name and he's a 6'3" 225 pound WR. The guy works hard on every single play and has great hands. Seems like with a healthy Cook back and a few more guys who can actually contribute at WR I think Case would be just fine.
Everyone goes on and on about Favre but look at how many stupid picks he tossed in his career. I'd just like to see them build on this team rather then start to panic and rebuild. No reason they can't win their division again and hopefully they finally get some good luck in the injury department.

[halfgiz]

I'm not sure why it's unreasonable to say Keenum may have hit his ceiling. He hit statistical highs on his 3rd team and his 5th year in the league. He also was not as effective at the end of the year and the playoffs as he was in the beginning of the year. That leads me to believe that he probably peaked early in the year. Keenum's value coming into 2017 was a one year 2 million dollar deal as a back up to Sam Bradford. The league didn't seem to value him very highly for a reason. He played well for the Vikings in 2017 and helped them get to the NFC championship game, which no one can take from him. Only time will tell where his career will be 5 years from now. My guess, based on the entirety of his career and historical data for previous QBs who were one year wonders, is that he won't have another year like he did this year. Though I accept the fact that I could be wrong.

This is basically correct. I like Case and he did a great job coming in and starting, but in the playoffs and for about the last month of the season he was less than impressive. He's a very good backup or a bridge starter. He also seems like a great guy and a fantastic teammate. It would be the kind of overreaction that gets a GM canned to commit resources to him as a longterm starter.

You think that some of that could have had something to do with all the injuries with the OL?

Keenum 2017 season #5 best in team history. Bradford 2016 was #4 best. Teddy's best year? # 22nd best.

[halfgiz]

I think they'll try to keep Case and Teddy and tell them they'll fight it out in camp. Case will look for (and find) a more secure place to start and Teddy will go into the season as #1. They'll bring in someone like Ryan Fitzpatrick to back him up. We'll keep Sloter as the "project" guy. We've only got 5 picks this year so they won't draft a QB. I'm sure they'll bring in some undrafted guys that will get cut (or surprise and beat out Sloter).

Cliff we are projected to get 2 compensatory picks.

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2018/1/28 ... raft-picks

[fiestavike]

Keenum 2017 season #5 best in team history. Bradford 2016 was #4 best. Teddy's best year? # 22nd best.

all I can do is laugh out loud that this sort of thing passes for analysis in this day and age, but this is our day and age.

[J. Kapp 11]

Keenum 2017 season #5 best in team history. Bradford 2016 was #4 best. Teddy's best year? # 22nd best.

all I can do is laugh out loud that this sort of thing passes for analysis in this day and age, but this is our day and age.

So offer some sort of analysis besides "laugh out loud." How is that analysis?

[raddmann]

For me it's Keenum. I've never been much of a Bridgewater guy since the first time I saw him throw. I do think he is a legit NFL starter but in the lower third. I do not believe a qb can be considered a franchise qb unless he can throw deep and he has shown me nothing in that area. Bradford is too risky and I would be very surprised if he accepted a backup contract. I think he would retire before he'd do that.

Keenums play did drop off toward the end of the season after Eaten went down. The dropoff in talent between the starter and backups is vast. The playcalling in these games was also very conservative which isn't something he has any control over. I also think Shumer is a bit overrated. In 2016 when he had Bradford do 3 step dropbacks and dink and dunk...well that is not exactly genious level stuff and designing rollouts for a mobile guy like Case isn't exactly genious level stuff either. Where I thought he excelled was his playcalling (at least in the first half of the season). I was delighted by how many times I was fooled by his calls.

I have no reason to think Keenum will drop off the charts if he stays healthy and they can improve the OL and Cook returns healthy and the D stays strong. It should not be difficult for the new OC to watch film and see what worked for Keenum and use it. I just hope they don't bring another system guy like Turner. Guys like that are always way ovverated in my book. One thing I think they must adress is wide receiver depth. Treadwell looks like a total bust and Floyd did nothing. Wright at least made a few plays but Diggs has been an injury machine except for this season and they have nobody that can come close to replacing Theilen if he were to down.

I think they should offer Case a 3 year deal around 40 to 45 million. They also could use the transition tag on him and match the best offer though if another team were to offer him a long term deal that could be problematic. I would be even willing to use the franchise tag and if he flops we are only on the hook for only one season. I do prefer the 3 year deal I mentioned because if offers the team more flexibility.

As far as signing Cousins of Brees - that's fantasyland stuff to me. If they could get Smith at 15 million it might be the best option for going outside the organization I wish I could state what they should do with Teddy but I need to see him play first. I finally got around to watch Sloter play on youtube and can see why many are intriqued by him. It should be remembered that he only played against 3rd string guys - most who are no longer in the league. He only had only one year in college too. Methinks that when he plays against first string defenses in games that actually count that he will struggle mightily. Hopefully I'm wrong.

Here is what I think will happen.I think they'll give Keenum an insulting lowball offer and he'll be gone. Same for Sam. Zimmer did not say one nice thing about Case all season and this is the same guy who defended Blair Walsh last season. He loves Teddy. In some ways I can see why but in other ways I think he's falling into a trap I see happen frequently where they get too close to a player a lose their objectiveness. Even Bud Grant did this by keeping guys like Eller, Marshall and Tinglehoff around far too long. He did not believe size was important and technique was all that counted. The last superbowl against Oakland proved how wrong he was.

From what I can tell is that Vikings fans prefer Keenum by a pretty wide margin over Teddy. Case certainly has his detractors and I fail to understand why there are so many folks who want to see him fail. In my mind he saved our season and possibly even Speiman/Zimmer jobs. If they had gone a different direction and gotten crapola play at QB an 8-8 or 7-9 season would have been a real possibility.

Here is one thing I do know. If they fail to sign Keenum and he does well with another team and Teddy trips over a blade of grass and reinjures the knee heads will roll.

So I'm all in for Case for next year. Beyond that I can't comment. A big reason he was successful was because he had very few negative yardage plays. Turning an 8 yard sack into a 3 or 4 yard game is what keeps drives alive. I just don't think Teddy or Sam have that ability unless we get some All Pro caliber guys on the OL and that is pretty unlikely.

Skol

[halfgiz]

For me it's Keenum. I've never been much of a Bridgewater guy since the first time I saw him throw. I do think he is a legit NFL starter but in the lower third. I do not believe a qb can be considered a franchise qb unless he can throw deep and he has shown me nothing in that area. Bradford is too risky and I would be very surprised if he accepted a backup contract. I think he would retire before he'd do that.

Keenums play did drop off toward the end of the season after Eaten went down. The dropoff in talent between the starter and backups is vast. The playcalling in these games was also very conservative which isn't something he has any control over. I also think Shumer is a bit overrated. In 2016 when he had Bradford do 3 step dropbacks and dink and dunk...well that is not exactly genious level stuff and designing rollouts for a mobile guy like Case isn't exactly genious level stuff either. Where I thought he excelled was his playcalling (at least in the first half of the season). I was delighted by how many times I was fooled by his calls.

I have no reason to think Keenum will drop off the charts if he stays healthy and they can improve the OL and Cook returns healthy and the D stays strong. It should not be difficult for the new OC to watch film and see what worked for Keenum and use it. I just hope they don't bring another system guy like Turner. Guys like that are always way ovverated in my book. One thing I think they must adress is wide receiver depth. Treadwell looks like a total bust and Floyd did nothing. Wright at least made a few plays but Diggs has been an injury machine except for this season and they have nobody that can come close to replacing Theilen if he were to down.

I think they should offer Case a 3 year deal around 40 to 45 million. They also could use the transition tag on him and match the best offer though if another team were to offer him a long term deal that could be problematic. I would be even willing to use the franchise tag and if he flops we are only on the hook for only one season. I do prefer the 3 year deal I mentioned because if offers the team more flexibility.

As far as signing Cousins of Brees - that's fantasyland stuff to me. If they could get Smith at 15 million it might be the best option for going outside the organization I wish I could state what they should do with Teddy but I need to see him play first. I finally got around to watch Sloter play on youtube and can see why many are intriqued by him. It should be remembered that he only played against 3rd string guys - most who are no longer in the league. He only had only one year in college too. Methinks that when he plays against first string defenses in games that actually count that he will struggle mightily. Hopefully I'm wrong.

Here is what I think will happen.I think they'll give Keenum an insulting lowball offer and he'll be gone. Same for Sam. Zimmer did not say one nice thing about Case all season and this is the same guy who defended Blair Walsh last season. He loves Teddy. In some ways I can see why but in other ways I think he's falling into a trap I see happen frequently where they get too close to a player a lose their objectiveness. Even Bud Grant did this by keeping guys like Eller, Marshall and Tinglehoff around far too long. He did not believe size was important and technique was all that counted. The last superbowl against Oakland proved how wrong he was.

From what I can tell is that Vikings fans prefer Keenum by a pretty wide margin over Teddy. Case certainly has his detractors and I fail to understand why there are so many folks who want to see him fail. In my mind he saved our season and possibly even Speiman/Zimmer jobs. If they had gone a different direction and gotten crapola play at QB an 8-8 or 7-9 season would have been a real possibility.

Here is one thing I do know. If they fail to sign Keenum and he does well with another team and Teddy trips over a blade of grass and reinjures the knee heads will roll.

So I'm all in for Case for next year. Beyond that I can't comment. A big reason he was successful was because he had very few negative yardage plays. Turning an 8 yard sack into a 3 or 4 yard game is what keeps drives alive. I just don't think Teddy or Sam have that ability unless we get some All Pro caliber guys on the OL and that is pretty unlikely.

Skol

Good post!

[J. Kapp 11]

As far as signing Cousins of Brees - that's fantasyland stuff to me.

I get why Brees is fantasyland ... he's not leaving New Orleans. But I'm curious why you say Cousins is.

What team that actually needs a quarterback is a more attractive situation than Minnesota? And look at the guy's record. More than 4,000 yards every year he's been a starter. Over 67% completion rate. A 97.5 QBR. No. 1 in the NFL in deep ball completion rate. Lots of mobility. Better than anything we have now.

The question, I think, is money. I have my doubts as to whether Vikings would pony up the cash it's going to take to sign him. Is that why you think Cousins is off the table?

By the way, Sporting News ranks Minnesota as the second most-likely landing spot for Cousins, behind Cleveland. If I were Cousins, I know where I'd want to go.

If they could get Smith at 15 million it might be the best option for going outside the organization

I will never understand the infatuation with Alex Smith. First of all, he's technically still under contract, and while KC would only be out $3.6 million in dead money if they were to cut him, the Chiefs aren't going to just let him walk without getting something in return. Smith also has a pretty disappointing playoff record at 2-5 and only a 61% completion rate. Plus, he's 34 in May. Wouldn't be my choice.

[raddmann]

Kaap. I've read many of your posts here and am usually in full agreement with your accessments. The reason I think Cousins is fantasyland is because of his price. I often read that it will require 30 to 35 million to get him and if that's true there won't be much leftover to sign some of those young defensive guys like Hunter and I don't think Zim will be agreeable to that. I have to confess that I have not seen Cousins play much. One game he was very bad and then got about 200 yards during garbage time in the 4th quarter so his game stats looked better than they really were. The other time I saw him he was fantastic. For some reason I have very little memory of how he played against us this year. Beer probably had something to do with this.

I agree that his stats are great but I've seen guys like Rivers, Stafford and even Cutler put up big stats too and how many times have they choked in the later stages of an important game. If somehow they could sign him in 23 to 25 million range then I'd be much more interested in him so it's all about his price for me. I definately agree that he is easily the top FA qb out there.

I'm not really infatuated with Smith and would prefer we get a younger guy but if he could be had for 12 to 15 million I see him as a better value. There are a few other guys too like Fitzpatrick but again I've just not seen them play enough to make a proper evaluation.

Cheers

[Norv Zimmer]

Lamar Jackson, dude is a baller. Extremely mobile. Get a OC thats good with QB's and throw him to the wolves

I second this. Jackson is the best QB prospect in college imo. He has a crazy good arm. His legs are something of beauty.

If he is there when the Vikings pick I want him. Give him the reigns and win the super bowl.