Vikes open as 3 point favorites in Philly.

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Re: Vikes open as 3 point favorites in Philly.

Post by ChicagoViking » Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:36 pm

Cliff wrote:
dead_poet wrote:
Pondering Her Percy wrote: Also, QUIT RUNNING EVERY TIME ON FIRST DOWN SHURMUR!!. You've called some great games but we're doing way too many first down runs. Hit them with some play actions.
Agreed. It was a little frustrating to watch.

I also am questioning why we didn't utilize Jet more vs. their linebackers. I'm questioning Jet's usage in general down the stretch.
I just went through the game on NFL.com and went through the play by play looking at 1st downs. In the 1st half we passed 11 times and rushed 7 times on first down. In the 2nd half we passed 11 times and rushed 6 times on 1st down. That's a 22/13 pass/rush ratio on 1st down ... unless I've somehow looked at the play by play improperly.

His interception came on a pass on 1st down.
This is no time to let facts get in the way of gut feeling.
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Re: Vikes open as 3 point favorites in Philly.

Post by mansquatch » Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:07 am

I think a critical point for the Eagles will be to keep this game close and, if possible to maintain a small lead. They have to know that barring major turnover stupidity by the Vikings, they are going to need this game to be within one score so they can rely on their rushing attack for most of the game and not put too much onus on Foles. That was a key part of the game plan they executed against the Falcons.

If the Vikings are able to get ahead of them, especially by 2 scores (even 9 points would be fine.) Then the ability of the Eagles OL / RB to impact the game becomes more and more inhibited as the game goes on.

I know this point seems stupid and obvious in the sens that to some degree it is true of every game you play. However, against a team like PHI, who really lacks a strong QB and good WR, it takes on even more importance. The Eagles need the game to be close in order to leverage their strengths on defense (front 7) and offense (OL). If they are behind then they have to start throwing more to catch up which runs the risk of more 3 and outs and tiring out their defense.

To me this is probably the best way to break them. If we can be up by even 9 by mid-way through the 3rd quarter, then we should be able to just punish them with Murray and shorten the game.
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Re: Vikes open as 3 point favorites in Philly.

Post by Maelstrom88 » Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:19 pm

https://t.co/xvTxt7hj4c?amp=1

Hope Shurmur uses rub concepts a lot this game. You know the patriots will in the super bowl if they play the Eagles.
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Re: Vikes open as 3 point favorites in Philly.

Post by TeamChaplain » Thu Jan 18, 2018 2:45 pm

Maelstrom88 wrote:https://t.co/xvTxt7hj4c?amp=1

Hope Shurmur uses rub concepts a lot this game. You know the patriots will in the super bowl if they play the Eagles.
Hopefully he's reviewed these tapes and has come up with some answers, I am also nervous about how our Oline will match up against their front four and their blitz schemes.
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Re: Vikes open as 3 point favorites in Philly.

Post by jackal » Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:21 pm

I will be happy and celebrate after two more
wins this season. Anything else is nothing imo.
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Re: Vikes open as 3 point favorites in Philly.

Post by J. Kapp 11 » Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:33 pm

mansquatch wrote:I think a critical point for the Eagles will be to keep this game close and, if possible to maintain a small lead. They have to know that barring major turnover stupidity by the Vikings, they are going to need this game to be within one score so they can rely on their rushing attack for most of the game and not put too much onus on Foles. That was a key part of the game plan they executed against the Falcons.

If the Vikings are able to get ahead of them, especially by 2 scores (even 9 points would be fine.) Then the ability of the Eagles OL / RB to impact the game becomes more and more inhibited as the game goes on.

I know this point seems stupid and obvious in the sens that to some degree it is true of every game you play. However, against a team like PHI, who really lacks a strong QB and good WR, it takes on even more importance. The Eagles need the game to be close in order to leverage their strengths on defense (front 7) and offense (OL). If they are behind then they have to start throwing more to catch up which runs the risk of more 3 and outs and tiring out their defense.

To me this is probably the best way to break them. If we can be up by even 9 by mid-way through the 3rd quarter, then we should be able to just punish them with Murray and shorten the game.
Nice analysis. Agree completely.

I'd also be looking at tape of the Giants game. If that dumpster fire of a team can move the ball at will against Philly, then it'd be wise to see how they did it.
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Re: Vikes open as 3 point favorites in Philly.

Post by Pondering Her Percy » Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:09 pm

mansquatch wrote:I think a critical point for the Eagles will be to keep this game close and, if possible to maintain a small lead. They have to know that barring major turnover stupidity by the Vikings, they are going to need this game to be within one score so they can rely on their rushing attack for most of the game and not put too much onus on Foles. That was a key part of the game plan they executed against the Falcons.

If the Vikings are able to get ahead of them, especially by 2 scores (even 9 points would be fine.) Then the ability of the Eagles OL / RB to impact the game becomes more and more inhibited as the game goes on.

I know this point seems stupid and obvious in the sens that to some degree it is true of every game you play. However, against a team like PHI, who really lacks a strong QB and good WR, it takes on even more importance. The Eagles need the game to be close in order to leverage their strengths on defense (front 7) and offense (OL). If they are behind then they have to start throwing more to catch up which runs the risk of more 3 and outs and tiring out their defense.

To me this is probably the best way to break them. If we can be up by even 9 by mid-way through the 3rd quarter, then we should be able to just punish them with Murray and shorten the game.
Agreed. Great breakdown. They aren’t built to come back. Foles isn’t the type of QB to take over and come back from a 2 score deficit. If we can get up by 9+ points during this game, we’re in great shape. We need to draw blood early. If we do we can control the game from there

If we have a first have like we did vs the Saints, the Eagles are toast. They don’t have Brees, they don’t have the RBs and they don’t have the WRs.

3 more days boys!!! I like our chances!!
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Re: Vikes open as 3 point favorites in Philly.

Post by Raptorman » Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:41 pm

Pondering Her Percy wrote:
mansquatch wrote:I think a critical point for the Eagles will be to keep this game close and, if possible to maintain a small lead. They have to know that barring major turnover stupidity by the Vikings, they are going to need this game to be within one score so they can rely on their rushing attack for most of the game and not put too much onus on Foles. That was a key part of the game plan they executed against the Falcons.

If the Vikings are able to get ahead of them, especially by 2 scores (even 9 points would be fine.) Then the ability of the Eagles OL / RB to impact the game becomes more and more inhibited as the game goes on.

I know this point seems stupid and obvious in the sens that to some degree it is true of every game you play. However, against a team like PHI, who really lacks a strong QB and good WR, it takes on even more importance. The Eagles need the game to be close in order to leverage their strengths on defense (front 7) and offense (OL). If they are behind then they have to start throwing more to catch up which runs the risk of more 3 and outs and tiring out their defense.

To me this is probably the best way to break them. If we can be up by even 9 by mid-way through the 3rd quarter, then we should be able to just punish them with Murray and shorten the game.
Agreed. Great breakdown. They aren’t built to come back. Foles isn’t the type of QB to take over and come back from a 2 score deficit. If we can get up by 9+ points during this game, we’re in great shape. We need to draw blood early. If we do we can control the game from there

If we have a first have like we did vs the Saints, the Eagles are toast. They don’t have Brees, they don’t have the RBs and they don’t have the WRs.

3 more days boys!!! I like our chances!!
Philly has been behind at halftime 4 times this year. Dallas, Seattle, KC and Atlanta. They are 2-2 in those games. Here's one thing that I have yet to see addressed by the talking head.

Offensive scoring with Wentz 31 ppg
Offensive scoring with Foles 17 ppg

Now, I don't know about you, but that is a significant change in offensive output.
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Re: Vikes open as 3 point favorites in Philly.

Post by PacificNorseWest » Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:53 pm

It's a massive change, but Wentz was (and is in my opinion) the clear MVP...He creates on any offense. What the Eagles still have going for them is a great offensive line and a very good running game. It's like a downgrade from amazing down to great. They have a few options in the running game that would have been similar to what the Vikings would have right now if Cook were still healthy. Those options are scary cause in combination with that Oline, they can throw changeups all day and be effective. The gameplan has changed with Foles from Wentz and the Eagles have adapted well. They can be exploited and aren't nearly as dangerous as they were with Wentz, but they pose some potential problems for a Vikings defense that hasn't been putting much pressure on the QB lately. The fact that this game is in Philly and outdoors is only an added benefit for Philly as it can have an effect on speed, even if marginally, for a defense that thrives on team speed.
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Re: Vikes open as 3 point favorites in Philly.

Post by PurpleMustReign » Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:00 am

The Vikings struggled when Keenum came in at first too. They scored 7 points at home againse a very mediocre Lions defense. I think they scored 10 against Pittsburgh, although their defense is way better.
I don't trust Foles to struggle against the Vikings. Some very average QBs have looked very good against the Vikings this season and it has almost cost them games multiple times. Trubisky looked like the second coming of Christ a few times in Chicago, and while Cousins is a good QB, he has never wowed me like he has others. Philly has had about a month to get their #### straight, and that can be more than enough to get Foles in gear.
Philly scored 15 against ATL, but remember, we scored only 14 against them. I just don't understand the logic of the Eagles being a much worse team without Wentz, especially against the Vikings' history.
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Re: Vikes open as 3 point favorites in Philly.

Post by mansquatch » Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:00 am

They do have a solid running game and OL... however they do not have an Ezekiel Elliot type back. The skill position players the Eagles field on the perimeter are just not that scary. There is no alpha WR, no game miss match at TE. The Backs are good, but they are not elite. Most importantly, Foles is not an elite threat at QB. This means the Vikings do not need some exotic coverage scheme or 6 DBs to contain the passing game, so they'll be able to lean more heavily on the rushing attack.

This is the problem with one dimensional offenses. Unless they can just completely blow people up at what they are good at, a defense can take away and/or mitigate their strength. They need balance to be effective. I'm not convinced this Philly team will be able to achieve that kind of balance against our Defense.

Look at hte game plan they employed vs. the Falcons: Straight Ahead rushes and quick, short passing. They took the game out of their QBs hands. The question to ask is this: If that won't work against MN what do they do?

I think Zimmer is going to scheme in a way to make them have to throw downfield. If the Vikings can draw blood early, then the Eagles won't have a choice in that matter. That is why I think this game could be a blow out. If we go up by 9 points, the Eagles will have to start throwing which they are not good at. That will lead to three and outs which lead to an exhausted defense and the game will snowball out of control.

I'm not saying that will happen, but it isn't out of the question. It all comes down to how stingy their defense can be. I suspect they might be vulnerable to our short quick passing game given our WR ability to generate YAC.
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Re: Vikes open as 3 point favorites in Philly.

Post by Raptorman » Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:14 am

Not sure what the reason for the drop off in offensive production was in Philly but 14 points a game is huge. When Rodgers went down the Packers dropped 10 points per game. Only difference is that they didn't have a defense that could step up and help. The Eagles do. Because after Wentz went down the defense went from 19.2 points per game to 13.2 points per game. So Philly's defense picked it up a bit to help win. The only teams with winning records the Eagle have held to under 20 points are the Falcons in the playoffs and the Cowboys 2 games, one of which the Eagles lost. Now, is this something that will continue this weekend? We shall see.
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Re: Vikes open as 3 point favorites in Philly.

Post by mansquatch » Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:14 pm

They didn't start Foles vs. Dallas. That is why they scored 0.

That being said, I'm going to just come out and say that the Eagles Defensive Ranking is overrated. They gave up 25 Passing TDs this season and 3,883 yards to QBs. Opposing QBs averaged 242 yards which might seem low, but consider that they are helped by 9 games against Mediocre to flat out Bad QBs. Look at this list:

Cam Newton: 239YD 1 TD
N. Beathard (SF): 167YD 1TD
Osweiller: 208YD 1TD
D. Prescott: 145YD 0TD (No Ezekiel Elliot in this game)
Trubisky: 147YD 0 TD
R. Wilson: 227YD 3TD (They lost this game because they couldn't score, remember this for later)
Goff: 199YD 2TD
Carr: 140YD 1TD
Prescott: 179YD 1TD (Elliot played in this game)

That is 9 games out of 16 against mundane starters. You might argue that Goff, Carr, and Wilson are more average, but neither were great this season due to woes on offense or in the case of Goff, growing pains. But what about the other 7?

Counsins x 2 543Yd 5TD
Eli Manning x 2 800YD 6TD (!!!)
Alex Smith 251YD 1 TD
Phillip Rivers 347YD 3TD
C. Palmer 291YD 1 TD

The only semi-elite guy on this list is Eli Manning, who had a bad year with his main targets all injured. Everyone else is either average or a shadow of himself. Imagine the Vikings stats against this schedule?

The game against Atlanta had a wind component to it, which hurt the passing game. Ryan still was able to put up 233 yards, but couldn't find anybody in the red zone. Again, good Def or bad QB? Probably a mix of both, but he had his shots, he just didn't convert them.

Conclusion: Keenum should have opportunities against this defense.

Switch to offense: PHI had a strong rushing attack, producing over 2100 yards. However... they only score 9 combined TD with their RB rushing. Carson Wentz accountned for 33 TD passing. Foles has 5 TD in 3 games as a starter, including zero vs. ATL.

Remember that SEA game? They couldn't get it done in the redzone. To me it is highly questionable that this PHI offense will be able to generate much of anything against our defense. They struggled with Wentz to put up points against Seattle. Why would one think that with Foles the outcome would be different vs. a Vikings unit that is even better?

The Vikings could break my heart, but not only do I think they should be favored, I think there is reasonable potential for them to run away with this one.
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Re: Vikes open as 3 point favorites in Philly.

Post by Grashopa » Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:23 pm

not sure where to put this...

Just got done watching this weeks episode of 96 Questions. At the end Robison said "see you next week".... that pretty much confirms a vikings victory! SKOL!
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Re: Vikes open as 3 point favorites in Philly.

Post by ChicagoViking » Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:49 pm

mansquatch wrote:we should be able to just punish them with Murray
Really? Murray? You mean Murray and his 2.6 ypc last week or 3.9 ypc on the season? I wish we could "punish them with Murray," but I don't see it happening. We'll need to get a lot more creative than that.
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