Enemy Fan Forums - Divisional Round vs. Saints

A forum for the hard core Minnesota Vikings fan. Discuss upcoming games, opponents, trades, draft or what ever is on the minds of Viking fans!

Moderator: Moderators

Post Reply
User avatar
Cliff
Site Admin
Posts: 8404
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2004 5:51 pm
Location: Kentucky

Enemy Fan Forums - Divisional Round vs. Saints

Post by Cliff » Wed Jan 10, 2018 8:59 am

Vikings haven't been in a close/tough game since Dec 10...
When the Panthers beat them. Since then they had a bunch of soft matchups with no real challenge or pressure on them.

I predict that like the Rams, they come in a little rusty.
I was actually going to make a thread about this. A friend of mine said the same thing. The more I think about it, the more I think the last month of football really works to the Saints' advantage. The Saints have been in playoff quality games for most of the games since the end of November. I don't know that I expect a Saints win. But it would not surprise me to see the Saints put the Vikings on their heals early with their level of game planning and intensity of play.
Them beating teams on their schedule doesn't hurt them. I'm sorry but that's silly and we would laugh if an analyst said that about our Saints. You can't penalize them for being a great team and feeding offf of lower teams.

There's things we can hopefully use to our advantage vs Minnesota. Them not having a "real challenge or pressure" since the Panthers game is not one of them.
Vikes are soft. "This week off has been wonders! We really needed the break! I feel so much better now with the week off!" blah blah blah. Hope you enjoyed your vacation. Saints got swag. They've been fighting, scratching and crawling. They can't wait to get to Minnesota and do it again.

It didn't surprise me the Saints lost to the Bucs. I think the team mentally was looking forward to the playoffs and it didn't matter to them who they would end up playing.

Vikings aren't ready. Book it. Brees wants that Two Dat bad. The rest of the team is just as hungry. Vacation is over for three hours on Sunday, Vikes. Then your long, familiar vacation can begin once again.
Casey Keenum isn't going to win the Super Bowl. No doubt anything can happen this week and he can beat us. I just don't see him beating 3 teams of this caliber in a row with all of the pressure. Not to mention he has to be feeeling pressure from the facts that Bradford and Bridgewater are getting healthy and he knows his play now goes a long way into determining his future/career. That's a ton of pressure.

I just hope his inexperience shows up now instead of later.
Rewatched week 1 game vs. Vikings
As agonizing as it was to watch this game the first time I managed to do it again. And after doing so, first of all it's obvious how much the defense misses Klein. That dude was all over the field making tackles and leading the whole unit. It was laughable to think De'vante Harris could cover Stefon Diggs, who killed the Saints with crossing routes early then used double moves later to burn us constantly. Hopefully this time things will be different. My guess is Crawley will draw the assignment on Diggs this time around and Lattimore will cover Thielen. If the front 4 can pressure Keenum it may lead to a key turnover.


On the other side, Snead was suspended for this game and since he hasn't produced much since returning I'm starting to wonder if TLL could play a bigger role in this game...he may not be elusive but he has some speed and maybe that could help dictate coverage since the Vikings may try to play more man to man. Either that or Snead HAS to be targeted more because I just don't see Zimmer allowing his defense to be beaten by Kamara in passing situations. The Saints proved they can move the ball against the Vikings but their failures in the red zone was their undoing. Some unconventional things may have to happen for the Saints to win this game. Brees may have to run for a first down or two. Ingram may wind up with more receptions than Kamara, etc. This time around it could be an even lower scoring game so the Saints will absolutely have to take advantage of any opportunities to score that they get. One thing for sure is this game will feature a battle of wits on the sidelines because and Offensive and Defensive Guru.
We will get our points. Pressure is key to this game. Cam Jordan can win this game and the Vikings know it. Someone else will need to help
We used a lot of good misdirection in that game. And it worked. Let’s hope it does again.
First off Saints had players on field shouldnt hve been. They was trying to find there identity and it caused them that game.

1. Devonte Harris was clearly not starter material
2. Lattimore first game getting his feet wet
3. Adrian Peterson debut back in Minny. Ingram and AK was a non factor because of that.
3. Started season without Armstead. Rookie Ram first game. Doing the Oline shuffle thing.
4. Defense and offense clearly isnt the same in week 1 against the Vikings.

For Vikings
1. Case wasnt the QB. Bradford was.
2. Cook was the feature running back and he gashed the Saints front. Hes out this game but you hve to contain McKinnon and Murray.
3. Vikings defense is the same.

Saints win with film study and mismatches. AD will hve to come up with an impressive defensive gameplan to stop Case and SP will have to spread Vikings defense out. You cant run sideline to sideline on Vikings defense. There to fast. You hve to spread them out make them cover every inch of grass.
Vikings -3.5
That's the opening line I'm seeing...

Hopefully the Vikings players think this game is in the bag and all they have to do is show up.
They have a great front seven. There’s a lot of speed and strength there. I don’t think they’ll feel the need to stack the box. We should be able to move the ball on the ground a little better this game. They have an elite safety and corner. The other safety and corner are just okay. I trust Lattimore to shadow Diggs. He’s their best receiver, it’s just that Thielen is the favorite target. He’s going to get his on Crawley, but we have to keep them out of the end zone. Make their QB beat us.
These are two different teams from week one, Minn has the pressures of a QB without playoff experience, a chance to run the table at home all the way through the superbowl, and two weeks to think about it.
I just hope the Saints aren't spent from this stressful win over the Kittens.
If the Saints play the kind of balanced football they are capable of, I think they have a great chance to win.
if i recall we had hell on getting to brafford that first game he was dumping it out quick we had no chance of disruption and when we did get that lick on him he was out the rest of season, i still believe it was saints defense that killed his season, now we have a little roach thats hard to attack because he abandons the pocket and throws well on the run, cam has to stay home and keep him inside that pocket.
Crawley didn't play well yesterday against what amounts to a #4 receiver (Clay). Still shaking my head why we had Bush on Olsen so much.

Just like Carolina, we are going to have trouble running the ball, especially down another lineman

Looks like this one will be Brees' to win, again
Vikes #1 defense in a division with the high flying Bears offense, a Rodgers-less Packers, and a Lions offense whose leading rusher had just over 500 yards this season.

They also had the Browns, Bucs, & Bengals. That's 9 games against below-average offenses. Steelers, Redskins, and Panties put up 26, 30, & 31 on these guys.

Vikes D is very good, but you can see the flaw in that #1 ranking. Not the 85 Bears here.
I think the Saints will go there and pull away big to.

I been wrong and may be wrong this time. But theirs alot about the #1 and #2 seeds in the NFC this year that scares me none when you start to really look at the resumes and situations.
They also played a wussy schedule.

AFC North (3-1), Lost to Steelers
NFC South (3-1), Lost to Panthers
NFC North (5-1), Lost to Lions
NFC others (2-0), Rams and Redskins

They are 3-2 versus playoff teams, all 3 wins at home.
We are 5-4 versus playoff teams

Color me unimpressed. Good team, but not great.
What makes me most unimpressed about the Vikings is they played a Rams team I thought was no good, (sure they beat us but only posted 26 pts against backup secondary), The first meeting with us they only won by 10 pts and we were bad, we wasnt very good and looked worse than last years teams. Had to look back to see who they beat, they beat a Falcons team that struggles on offense but by 5 pts. if the Saints are not their own worst enemy next Sunday, Saints win.
If the Saints can get Case into 2nd, 3rd and long ... advantage Who Dat. With pressure (see Cam Jordan), he'll be forced into bad throws against a good secondary. The bigger issue could be not allowing Diggs, Rudolph & Thielenrunning high school wide open without a defender in sight.

I can't wait for this one.
You could be right. But I seem to remember that Payton tried very hard to FORCE Kamara's involvement in that game. Minnesota was not fooled and Payton and Brees kept telegraphing the game plan.

The first time the Saints started to look good was the last game before I started boycotting, week 3 against the Panthers. AP was still here, then. So I'm not so sure how much the team has changed offensively, so much as the matchups just weren't good for the Saints the first couple of weeks. Afterall, it isn't as if the team didn't have other clunkers this season.

I'll certainly give you that having Lattimore over Harris is a distinct improvement from the first game. But my curiosity is more toward whether or not the Saints can move the ball effectively enough. If the offense keeps that defense on the field as much as they did the first time, we all know the Vikings will run the ball all over those tired defenders.

I'm not favoring any team, per se, but I do think the Vikings defense is better than people are giving them credit for, and will be a challenge.
Brees won't have time to go deep, so Vikes should stack the box & prolly go single high safety. Rhodes 1-on-1 vs MThomas w/safety cheating wherever Ginn is. We should get the ball quick on perimeter with MI/AK/TGJ. I think MT+Brees wins vs Rhodes & Kamara/Ingram on a LB'er in coverage is just sick. If we set-up the run with the pass instead of vice versa, your gonna see a gassed Vikes DLine in 4th Qtr IF we don't turn it over & get enough 1st downs through the air to own the clock.

We ain't getting chunk plays this game. "Slow is smooth, smooth is fast" should be the mantra. Coleman/Snead/Hill needs to step up big in this one if Coleman would quit holding the ball like a loaf of bread.

Or I could be 105% wrong. Us weathermen like to hedge our bets...
"Everyone has a plan 'til they get punched in the mouth." - Mike Tyson

User avatar
Cliff
Site Admin
Posts: 8404
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2004 5:51 pm
Location: Kentucky

Re: Enemy Fan Forums - Divisional Round vs. Saints

Post by Cliff » Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:10 am

Have the Vikings played THAT many good opponents?
I know they beat the Rams pretty bad down the stretch, but who else have they played? I know that they good beat by a large amount of the good teams they played and their division was super weak, as they played the Packers w/o Rodgers both times. They also lost to the Panthers, whom we've beat twice. I just think that they've taken advantage of a fairly weak schedule.
They beat us.
Their defensive stats are elevated because they've played the BENGALS, the BROWNS, the RAVENS, the A-Rod-less Packers and the Chicago Bears this season, methinks it's a phantom reputation their defense possesses which elevates my confidence in the Saints as they proceed to face them IN A DOME. Get ready for some offensive fireworks ERRYBODY
I've been banging my head trying to find chinks in the Viking defense's armor the last two nights.

One thing I found was, when you extrapolate the Vikings games from their opponents offensive stats, their rushing and passing numbers are somewhat mediocre.

The 1st number is the team's NFL Rushing ranking when we eliminate the Vikings game.

The 2nd number is the NFL Passing rank with the Vikings game eliminated.

(I took out the Vikings games so the "Yea, but their numbers would be better if they didn't play the Vikings" argument couldn't be used).

Saints: 3, 6
Steelers: 20, 2
Bucs: 27, 5
Lions: 32, 4
Bears: 12, 31
Packers: 17, 21
Ravens: 9, 29
Browns: 18, 23
Redskins: 28, 13
Rams: 5, 10
Lions: 32, 4
Falcons: 13, 8
Panthers: 7, 27
Bengals: 29, 24
Packers: 17, 21
Bears: 12, 31

Rushing AVG: 17.56
Passing AVG: 16.19

That's fine. But when we use this same component on the Saints' opponents, the numbers are almost similar: 16.38 (Rush), 15.56 (Pass).

I'm almost out of ideas. I've ran numbers on them when it comes to how well they stop the screen game and its not ideal. I think I'm going to give up on this venture and just trust in Payton and the boys to come up with a solid game plan to attack their weaknesses that I'm not paid enough to see
"Everyone has a plan 'til they get punched in the mouth." - Mike Tyson

mansquatch
Hall of Fame Candidate
Posts: 3463
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2005 2:44 pm
Location: Coon Rapids, MN

Re: Enemy Fan Forums - Divisional Round vs. Saints

Post by mansquatch » Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:11 am

The comment on strength of schedule is wrong, they are ignoring the Atlanta game which was a win on the road. They probably want to forget that we held them to zero touchdowns and just 9 points in their own house. The idea that Michael Thomas is going to do what Julio Jones couldn't against Rhodes is silly.

They are very arrogant about their offense. Almost reminds me of a certain fan base to our east...
Winning is not a sometime thing it is an all of the time thing - Vince Lombardi

User avatar
Cliff
Site Admin
Posts: 8404
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2004 5:51 pm
Location: Kentucky

Re: Enemy Fan Forums - Divisional Round vs. Saints

Post by Cliff » Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:18 am

https://www.reddit.com/r/Saints/comment ... s_vikings/
This is it. Reddit fanbases aside this is going to be great football. Vikings are the best team in the NFC imo. Our offense is going to need to overcome Peat's injury and tire their D with Ingramara (#1 rush D vs best RB duo). Our D is going to have to step up especially our LBs and keep them under 20 points (Decent offense vs decent D). I'm still not sold on Keenum though. Can't wait.
Damn it sucks that peat went down, to me he was our best o line man this season. If we win this game the NFC championship game down here with Atlanta will be crazy, the rivalry will be at its peak like the stone cold vs the rock. Atlanta should take care of business against philly, they have no business losing that game after the way they handled the rams. To me the Vikings are our toughest opponent left in the playoffs, if we win this game there’s no doubt in my mind that we will go on to win the super bowl. So let’s get this win
After seeing posts from either team's fanbases, I think I may have to avoid Reddit entirely this week. I just want a good, cleanly officiated, injury-free game. I don't need to get riled up over ####, I have a life outside of football fandom.

I do enjoy reading in depth stuff on X's and O's though so let's kick things off on a good note:

I was surprised at the outcome week 1 this year. Since a lot of things have happened since then, what are the biggest factors as to why/how the Saints can win?
I don't think the major factors will surprise you, to be honest. Offense is going to come down to our offensive line. If our offensive line wins the battle against your defensive line you'll either have to commit more to the run (like Carolina did) which will make it easier for Brees, or Ingram and Kamara will go wild. If we don't win the battle in the trenches we are going to have a loooong day on offense.

Defense: Lattimore is going to be huge. If Lattimore can shut down either Diggs or Thielen we'll be able to give safety help to Crawley which should put a dent in your passing game.

Furthermore, as you probably saw on Sunday, we still have some issues with covering TE. Now, I don't know how high you guys are on your TE corps but if there is one game where you want to force your TEs the ball it's going to be this week. We need to improve on TE coverage if we want to have any chance this week.

Then you have the pass rush. Our defensive has been decimated by injuries the last few weeks so it's going to come down to Cam Jordan. Jordan needs to have a monster game and eat double teams so that the other guys have a fighting chance, at least.
1) Mike Thomas. Brees needs someone to throw to and MT is our best. I don't think y'all will fall for "I'm just Ginn, don't bother covering me"

2) Trenchwarfare. Saints need to get the run game going and Saints need to pressure Case. Cam actually had a decent game in Wk 1 but guess who else did? Everson Griffen. Our only solace is it was against Rookie Ram playing Left. It will be Hopefull Healthy Armstead this game. Got to slow him down.

3) Adam Theilen - Who the #### covers him? Do you give him to Latti? Is Crawley fast enough? Is ANYONE in Black and Gold fast enough? Stephon Diggs is a classical WR but Adam makes grown men look silly, we can't look silly.

4) Contain Case - Dude is sneaky fast (i.e. white) Mobile QBs worry me especially with the state of our LB corp and all the speed in the wide outs.

5) NUTZ OUT!!! Yall still rocking Kobra Kai as Kicker? Welp, his Jedi Padwan is here. With luck, this becomes a kickers contest and our Lutz is bigger than yours.
Lattimore is faster than Thielen. That's who. Diggs will be pressed by Crawley with safety help.
Last time in the NFCCG, I felt that was really the Super Bowl as both teams seemed to be better than the Colts. This time in the Divisional Round, it feels like the NFCCG.

I'm much less confident in this game than I was that one, specifically due to being thin on D and O-line. Frustrating that these two teams pick the same years to be good it would seem as I'd love to see the Vikings go all the way at some point. But the games is games, go Saints!
"Everyone has a plan 'til they get punched in the mouth." - Mike Tyson

User avatar
Pondering Her Percy
Hall of Famer
Posts: 5318
Joined: Thu Dec 13, 2012 3:38 am
Location: Watertown, NY

Re: Enemy Fan Forums - Divisional Round vs. Saints

Post by Pondering Her Percy » Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:42 am

mansquatch wrote: They are very arrogant about their offense. Almost reminds me of a certain fan base to our east...
Ugh you're telling me! They are so confident in this offense yet they couldnt beat the leagues worst defense in Tampa Bay. Riddle me that.
Image

User avatar
S197
Fenrir
Posts: 11288
Joined: Fri Dec 22, 2006 1:28 pm
Location: Hawaii

Re: Enemy Fan Forums - Divisional Round vs. Saints

Post by S197 » Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:42 pm

It's funny how they unintentionally put themselves down. "Who have they beat, the Rams?" Uh yeah, and... the SAINTS.

"Color me unimpressed, look at their schedule, 3-1 against the NFC south pfft." Um that's your division dumbass.

"Saints have been playing playoff quality teams in December." Like.. the Bucs? Who we also beat?

Not to mention the fact that we beat the Falcons, on the road, a team playing in the other Divisional. But okay we just played crappy teams all year... like the Saints.

User avatar
soflavike
Hall of Famer
Posts: 9526
Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2006 3:38 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

Re: Enemy Fan Forums - Divisional Round vs. Saints

Post by soflavike » Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:42 pm

We can lose this game. I'll give them that... but I don't think we're going to. This team has the winning edge, and we're at home. I like our chances. A lot. :govikes:

And I hate the Saints and their dirty coach. For the record.
*********
A die-hard Vikings fan in South Florida

User avatar
VikingLord
Hall of Famer
Posts: 5723
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 3:12 pm
Location: The Great White North

Re: Enemy Fan Forums - Divisional Round vs. Saints

Post by VikingLord » Wed Jan 10, 2018 6:10 pm

soflavike wrote:We can lose this game. I'll give them that... but I don't think we're going to. This team has the winning edge, and we're at home. I like our chances. A lot. :govikes:

And I hate the Saints and their dirty coach. For the record.
The Vikings could lose any game. All it takes is some bad luck, untimely bad penalties, a few missed catches or botched tackles, etc. I mean, look at the Falcons in last year's Superbowl - up by an insane amount late and they gave it all back and more.

But while the Vikes could lose due to any, or all, of those, I think it's far more likely the pressure will affect New Orleans this time around for the simple fact that this game is a road game for them and, sans Brees, they actually have more key rookies involved at key positions than the Vikings. Lattimore has played well all year, but he's still a rookie. Ditto for Kamara. The unsung key players for the Vikings may not have playoff experience, but they're not rookies either. Keenum has been in the league for a while now as has Thielen, Diggs, etc. There are no rookies on the Vikings defense who are key players for them, and the one rookie they have, Gedeon, isn't a key player the Saints will be able to easily target due to the overall strength of the rest of the defense as well as the loud noise that should make it hard for Brees to try to change plays to target him.

The Vikes will shut down the Saint offense by playing strong fundamentally - stay home and trust your teammates to do their jobs, tackle well, and avoid penalties. If they can do that, they can make the Saints offense look average or worse. I'm confident of it. As for the Vikings offense, the Saints are going to likely try to put a ton of pressure on Keenum and take chances in the secondary trying to create splash plays. I think as the game wears on, and especially if the Vikings can jump out to a sizeable early lead, they'll get even more desperate. So Keenum has to stay cool, avoid succumbing to that pressure, and find the mismatches and make the Saints pay for them. The Vikings also have to run it effectively. The Saints are not strong up the middle against either the run or pass. They have struggled against good TEs and short to medium range passes over the middle, and have struggled to consistently stop runs between the tackles. Keenum will be aware of this and should be able to exploit it, especially at home because he shouldn't have to deal with crowd noise and can alter plays to take advantage of what he sees pre-snap. He just has to remember that Sean Peyton is a tricky sucker and avoid being baited into mistakes. The Saint offense lives and dies off misdirection, and I expect the Saints defense will end up using similar tactics in an attempt to survive this Sunday.

cstelter
Pro Bowl Elite Player
Posts: 803
Joined: Thu May 15, 2003 9:08 pm
Location: Training Camp Central

Re: Enemy Fan Forums - Divisional Round vs. Saints

Post by cstelter » Wed Jan 10, 2018 8:24 pm

S197 wrote:It's funny how they unintentionally put themselves down. "Who have they beat, the Rams?" Uh yeah, and... the SAINTS.

"Color me unimpressed, look at their schedule, 3-1 against the NFC south pfft." Um that's your division dumbass.

"Saints have been playing playoff quality teams in December." Like.. the Bucs? Who we also beat?

Not to mention the fact that we beat the Falcons, on the road, a team playing in the other Divisional. But okay we just played crappy teams all year... like the Saints.
Saints "Playoff Quality" December games: CAR 11-5(W), ATL 10-6(L/W), NYJ 5-11 (W), TB 5-11 (L)
Vikings inferior quality games: ATL 10-6(W), CAR 11-5(L), CIN 7-9(W) GB 7-9 (W) CHI 5-11 (W)

First two games were same teams, we both split. Next we played 7-9 team and they played 5-11. Then we played GB 7-9 and they played ATL again (10-6), and we both finished against a 5-11 team.

The *only* substantial difference is that they beat ATL at home and we shut out GB on the road and that we beat our 5-11 team while they lost. Hardly grounds for thinking that makes their team more well prepared.

On This part:
They also played a wussy schedule.

AFC North (3-1), Lost to Steelers
NFC South (3-1), Lost to Panthers
NFC North (5-1), Lost to Lions
NFC others (2-0), Rams and Redskins
Let's try that side by side:


Vikings
AFC North (3-1), Lost to Steelers (#2 seed AFC)
Saints
AFC East (3-1), Lost to Patriots (#1 seed AFC)

Vikings
NFC South (3-1), Lost to Panthers
Saints
NFC South (4-2), lost to Atlanta and TB

Vikings
NFC North (5-1), Lost to Lions
Saints
NFC North (3-1), Lost to Vikings

Vikings
NFC others (2-0), Rams and Redskins
Saints
NFC others (1-1), Rams and Redskins


Side by side, it is pretty even looking at it this way, but tilts to the Vikings just a bit.

So rather than pointing at a *schedule* and declaring it wussy (we didn't make up our schedule), let's have a look at *common* opponents.

Any time we win and they lose to the same team, it an advantage Vikings. Vice-versa, advantage saints.

Since the playoff game will be home for us, any time we win at home while they lose (home or away) extra half advantage us. Any time they win on the road while we lose (home or away), extra half advantage for them.
  • We both played in the same week 1 game, so I'd call that a common game. Advantage Vikings + 1/2 advantage Vikings
  • Vikings lost on the road by 7 to CAR, NO beat CAR on the road -- Advantage Saints +1/2 advantage Saints
  • Vikings beat Atlanta on the road by 6, NO lost to ATL on the road by 3 -- Advantage Viking
  • Vikings lost by 7 at home to DET, NO beat DET big at home. -- Advantage Saints
  • NO lost to TB by 7 on the road, MN beat TB by 17 at home -- Advantage Vikings +1/2 advantage Vikings
  • We beat LAR by 17 at home, They lost to LAR by 6 on the road. Advantage Vikings +1/2 advantage Vikings
  • WAS-- Vikings 38-30 on the road, New Orleans 34-31 at home -- wash
I get 5.5 to 2.5 advantages.


I would observe that they beat *3* playoff teams (CAR (H/A), ATL(H), & BUF(A)) and lost to 4 (ATL(A), NE(H), LAR(A), and oh, yeah MIN(A)). Meanwhile we also beat 3 playoff teams (*THEM*(H), LAR(H), ATL(A)) and lost just two (PIT(A), CAR(A)).
They are 3-2 versus playoff teams, all 3 wins at home.
We are 5-4 versus playoff teams

Color me unimpressed. Good team, but not great.
Both of his stats had errors making it look better for the Saints and worse for the Vikings.

What do *I* see when I compare our records against playoff teams?
  1. We won *all* our home games against playoff teams, but also one against Atlanta on the road. (Remember, winning at home is to our advantage here)
  2. They were only 4-4 vs playoff teams (their non-playoff opponents were TB, TB, DET, CHI, GB, MIA, NYJ, and WAS, that only leaves 8 for playoff teams-- I don't think I overlooked any)
  3. 3-2 is a better percentage against playoff teams than 4-4-- we can each only play the teams on our schedule
  4. We beat NO at home the first time, the division game is at our home. That seems to be in our favor.
  5. We beat the LAR at home, the next week they lost to the LAR on the road. Against the same team, we seem to be better at home than they are on the road. Oh, yeah, did I mention this upcoming game is at home for us???
  6. We are 2-2 against playoff teams at home and 1-2 against playoff teams on the road. Good thing this game is at home.
  7. We beat ATL on the road, the next week they lost to ATL on the road. Hmm...
Craig S
Image

John_Viveiros
Career Elite Player
Posts: 2449
Joined: Sun Sep 28, 2003 8:55 pm
Location: Olympia, Washington

Re: Enemy Fan Forums - Divisional Round vs. Saints

Post by John_Viveiros » Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:57 am

cstelter wrote:What do *I* see when I compare our records against playoff teams?
  1. We won *all* our home games against playoff teams, but also one against Atlanta on the road. (Remember, winning at home is to our advantage here)
  2. They were only 4-4 vs playoff teams (their non-playoff opponents were TB, TB, DET, CHI, GB, MIA, NYJ, and WAS, that only leaves 8 for playoff teams-- I don't think I overlooked any)
  3. 3-2 is a better percentage against playoff teams than 4-4-- we can each only play the teams on our schedule
  4. We beat NO at home the first time, the division game is at our home. That seems to be in our favor.
  5. We beat the LAR at home, the next week they lost to the LAR on the road. Against the same team, we seem to be better at home than they are on the road. Oh, yeah, did I mention this upcoming game is at home for us???
  6. We are 2-2 against playoff teams at home and 1-2 against playoff teams on the road. Good thing this game is at home.
  7. We beat ATL on the road, the next week they lost to ATL on the road. Hmm...
Also, the Saints fans are taking advantage of a single play in the whole season: The Bengals beating the Ravens on the miracle 4th and 12 play. If that play goes the other way, or any other tiebreaker puts the Ravens at 10-6 or 9-7 over the Bills at 9-7, the records become 4-2 for the Vikings, and 3-4 for the Saints. And that would be a clear win for the Vikings.

I see a ton of people picking the Saints. It shows the incredible biases that pundits have. The recency bias - all they can remember is the Panthers game score: They don't remember that the Panthers moved the ball up and down the field on the Saints D, they don't remember that the game was won because of a missed FG that came off a drop in the end zone, and they don't remember that the Saints lost to the really poor Bucs only 7 days before (I guess they fixed EVERYTHING in the intervening week). And the offensive bias - offense is "exciting", so it is more memorable than watching team after team struggle to sustain drives against the Vikings.

Frankly, it's the best thing CBS can do for us, to have all of their experts pick the Saints to win. The biggest issue for me would be complacency, and I think we'll see laser focus with the lack of respect for the team with the best record in the league and arguably one of the best defenses this decade. It reminds me a lot of how the Cowboys were going to come up and upset us in the Dome in 2009.

As we've all said before, the Vikings can lose this game if some weird breaks happen. But this is a pretty predictable win to me - our strengths match up with their weaknesses, and they can't say the same (our OL can be iffy, especially if an injury flares up, but they don't have a DL like the Rams, for example). We should be able to run and throw. They shouldn't be able to do either particularly well, and shouldn't get the benefit of all the missed tackles other teams are prone to. It was my dream matchup of any of the possibilities (other than having the Eagles come play in Minnesota).

cstelter
Pro Bowl Elite Player
Posts: 803
Joined: Thu May 15, 2003 9:08 pm
Location: Training Camp Central

Re: Enemy Fan Forums - Divisional Round vs. Saints

Post by cstelter » Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:08 am

John_Viveiros wrote: I see a ton of people picking the Saints. It shows the incredible biases that pundits have. The recency bias - all they can remember is the Panthers game score: They don't remember that the Panthers moved the ball up and down the field on the Saints D, they don't remember that the game was won because of a missed FG that came off a drop in the end zone, and they don't remember that the Saints lost to the really poor Bucs only 7 days before (I guess they fixed EVERYTHING in the intervening week). And the offensive bias - offense is "exciting", so it is more memorable than watching team after team struggle to sustain drives against the Vikings.

Frankly, it's the best thing CBS can do for us, to have all of their experts pick the Saints to win. The biggest issue for me would be complacency, and I think we'll see laser focus with the lack of respect for the team with the best record in the league and arguably one of the best defenses this decade. It reminds me a lot of how the Cowboys were going to come up and upset us in the Dome in 2009.
The media seems to put a ton of value on the quality of the quarterback. Ability to win a big game, generate offense, etc. This guy based the entire playoffs off of this. He got 3/4 wildcard rounds wrong, every matchup in the division round wrong, in the end it was Brady vs. Brees in the superbowl.

Another pick segment I saw they broke down each team by pass offense, pass defense, rush offense, rush defense, and finally coaching. Lets say you rank each as stellar, good, middle, bad, horrible. Now let's say one team has a passing offense that is middle and a pass defense that is horrible. On the other side, the pass offense is bad, but the pass defense is stellar. The first team wins the passing offence check and the 2nd one wins the pass defense check (equal weight). You're telling me a bad passing offense against a horrible pass defense is a wash with an average passing offense against a stellar defense? The same thing happens when we *only* look at the quality of the quarterback without tempering it by the defense he is facing.

I have to admit I get uneasy when I think about how we tied up the CAR game, only for our defense to give up a TD and our offense go 4-out to end the game. That is one scenario where the "better quarterback" comes into play in my mind. But much else is different this game-- we're not on our 3rd road game in a row. They're not coming home off a two game road trip and a tough a divisional road loss. Rather they just lost on the road, had a tough home win and are now going on the road again. We're on a 3 game winning streak (2/3 home games) with a bye. Of course that doesn't always work in your favor, but it's a better place to be than on your 3rd road game against a 3rd playoff contender as we were in the CAR loss.

I have high hope that our Vikings will take this one, but I'm still in a place where I expect nothing. I'm not expecting a win, I'm not expecting a loss. But I am absolutely looking forward to the game to see how it all shakes out.

With all this chatter about how these are 2 completely different teams than week 1, I think a vikings victory 29-19 would be a pretty poetic final score. But I'd take a 2-0 victory or a 38-37-- anything with a W for the Vikings really.
Craig S
Image

User avatar
808vikingsfan
Hall of Fame Candidate
Posts: 3360
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2014 5:45 pm
Location: Hawaii

Re: Enemy Fan Forums - Divisional Round vs. Saints

Post by 808vikingsfan » Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:41 pm

Looking at the Saints first game (Vikings) and last game (Panthers). What's different? For both games: they couldn't run. They had to rely on Brees. The opposition moved at will. If you read the link I posted in the game discussion thread, you'll see that the Saints D has been giving up a ton of points recently, and their running game has been declining since week 13. I believe this team is starting to hit a wall.
Joined: Aug 2006
Deleted: Sept 12 2014
Reborn: Sept 17 2014

cstelter
Pro Bowl Elite Player
Posts: 803
Joined: Thu May 15, 2003 9:08 pm
Location: Training Camp Central

Re: Enemy Fan Forums - Divisional Round vs. Saints

Post by cstelter » Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:40 pm

I heard a comment from one of the talking heads about "try to establish some false tendencies" in the final weeks of the season. Is this something teams do? If so, possibly both the Vikings and the Saint's seemingly off final games were simply an effort to not show what we've *really* been setting up for the game. In fact even to catch them in entirely the wrong defense based on a look?

I wonder how much to read into the last few weeks once teams have clinched a spot in the playoffs.

Is this "false tendencies" idea a thing?
Craig S
Image

mansquatch
Hall of Fame Candidate
Posts: 3463
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2005 2:44 pm
Location: Coon Rapids, MN

Re: Enemy Fan Forums - Divisional Round vs. Saints

Post by mansquatch » Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:06 pm

Match-up wise our D vs. their O favors our D. Their entire perimeter and deep passing game is easily trumped by the quality of our secondary. Our DL matches up quite favorably to their OL, especially given recent injuries. Our LB are game proven to be upto the task of making tackles on RBs, both the steam roller types and the slippery fast guys. Additionally, our Defense while not quite in '85 Bears territory has extremely high quality stats across the board.

Their offense while successful put up 28 points a game. That is a great performance, but to put it into perspective, last year the Falcons put up 33.75 points per game. So while 28 might have been good enough for #2 this year, it was a far cry from a record setting performance.

Let's look at the Saints Defense:

In 8 games they held opponents to under 20 points. The Quarterbacks in those games:
Cam Newton (2)
Matt Ryan (2)
Brett Hundley
Mitchel Trubisky
N. Peterman (plays for the Bills)
Jay Cutler (week 4 on a terrible Dolphins team)
Ryan Fitzpatrick

Everyone on that list is a backup, rookie, or notoriously bad passer. The one exception is Ryan, however that is a divisional game and those always tend to be a harder since the teams know each other better.

When playing against offense in the top 50% of the league (which includes the Vikings) the Saints D gives up a whopping 28.2 points a game. That includes the two games against Matt Ryan where he scored 20 and 13 points respectively, so the performance is actually a bit worse.

IMO, the Saints this year are the same team they'be been the past few years. A great offense, that has to score many points in order to overcome their terrible defense. Thus the potency of their offense is inflated since they must score a lot, even against bad teams to win. They have likely benefits this year by having 8 games against backup/rookie/bottom dwelling QBs.

Against Teams in the top half of Defense, their average PPG drops to 23.4. This is bouyed by two games against the Panthers (Who are over valued with a rank of #7 in D) but gave up 31 and 34 points vs. the Saints respectively. If you take away the Panthers the average against top defenses is 19.8 points per game.

In summary:

Saints D vs. top 50% Offense: 28 PPG
Saints O vs. top 50% Defense: 19.8 PPG

I'm not sure the Vikings deserve a 10 point spread, but I think you have to like our chances in this game. I think the media pundits are vastly over-rating the Saints D and might be undervaluing our Defense a bit.
Winning is not a sometime thing it is an all of the time thing - Vince Lombardi

Post Reply