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Playoff scenarios
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Author:  S197 [ Sun Dec 17, 2017 6:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Playoff scenarios

Can someone help lay this out? The Vikings have secured a home game in the wild card round at bare minimum. Win out, and they have the #2 seed.

What needs to happen for the #1 seed? Do we still have the tiebreaker on Philly?

So long as Saints/Falcons and Rams win their division, Vikings can lose one and retain #2 seed. The only one that appears to be able to spoil that is Carolina.

Is that right? Seems like we need to root for anyone against Philly (obviously) and the falcons. I don't know what beyond that.

Author:  DavidKarki [ Sun Dec 17, 2017 6:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Playoff scenarios

S197 wrote:
Can someone help lay this out? The Vikings have secured a home game in the wild card round at bare minimum. Win out, and they have the #2 seed.

What needs to happen for the #1 seed? Do we still have the tiebreaker on Philly?

So long as Saints/Falcons and Rams win their division, Vikings can lose one and retain #2 seed. The only one that appears to be able to spoil that is Carolina.

Is that right? Seems like we need to root for anyone against Philly (obviously) and the falcons. I don't know what beyond that.



The Saints win the NFC South if they win out. That would render the Carolina loss tiebreaker moot. Given the tiebreakers the Vikings have over the Saints and Rams, they aren't really a threat.

The Vikings need anybody to beat Philly and win out to be #1. If the Saints win out, they can go 1-1 and be #2 seed (as you indicated).

So the #2 seed is the most likely outcome at this point.

Author:  NCViking [ Sun Dec 17, 2017 6:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Playoff scenarios

Eagles have to lose their last two games and we have to win our last two games to get the #1 seed. They have the tiebreaker now. If we win out and they only lose one, we have the same record and the same in-conference record. However, they went undefeated in common games while we lost to the Panthers, so they would still have the #1 seed.

Author:  Vike Fan 4 Life [ Sun Dec 17, 2017 6:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Playoff scenarios

I thought strength of victory was the tie breaker.

Author:  akvikingsfan [ Sun Dec 17, 2017 6:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Playoff scenarios

The only way for the Vikings to get the #1 seed is for the Vikings to win both of their remaining games AND the Eagles to lose both of their remaining games. With that said, the Vikings will likely get the #2 seed, and my bet is the Eagles don't win their first playoff game which in effect would let the Vikings host the NFCC for the first time since 1998.

Author:  S197 [ Sun Dec 17, 2017 10:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Playoff scenarios

NCViking wrote:
Eagles have to lose their last two games and we have to win our last two games to get the #1 seed. They have the tiebreaker now. If we win out and they only lose one, we have the same record and the same in-conference record. However, they went undefeated in common games while we lost to the Panthers, so they would still have the #1 seed.


Thanks. #1 seed seems like an unlikely scenario, too bad they won today against the Giants. 1st round bye would still be big.

Author:  PurpleMustReign [ Sun Dec 17, 2017 10:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Playoff scenarios

I believe that if Atlanta wins tomorrow, Green Bay is officially eliminated.

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Author:  J. Kapp 11 [ Sun Dec 17, 2017 11:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Playoff scenarios

A first-round bye would be huge for us, given our injuries along the offensive line.

Philly does not want to play our team, I can guarantee you that. Even if they should somehow get to the NFC championship game, we've got to be the favorite now. Without Wentz, they're not the same team. He covered up a lot of sins along that banged-up offensive line with his uncanny ability to avoid the rush.

If our O-line is healthy, we've got as good a chance as anybody to make the Big Game.

Author:  Boon [ Mon Dec 18, 2017 12:44 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Playoff scenarios

Vike Fan 4 Life wrote:
I thought strength of victory was the tie breaker.


it is

Author:  S197 [ Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:03 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Playoff scenarios

PurpleMustReign wrote:
I believe that if Atlanta wins tomorrow, Green Bay is officially eliminated.

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https://gfycat.com/DamagedJointFruitfly

Author:  PurpleKoolaid [ Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:14 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Playoff scenarios

I am a bit confused how we can secure a bye. IF we win both games is it guaranteed? Or 1 game?

Author:  808vikingsfan [ Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Playoff scenarios

Quote:
The Vikings (11-3) will get the NFC’s No. 1 seed if…

They win their remaining two games (at Green Bay, vs. Chicago) and the Eagles (12-2) lose their final two games (vs. Oakland, vs. Dallas). Philadelphia clinches the NFC’s No. 1 seed with a win against the Raiders next week.



The No. 2 seed if…

They beat the Packers and Bears, securing a first-round bye. If the Vikings go 1-1 in the final two games to finish 12-4, they need to avoid a tie with a potential NFC South-champion Panthers (10-4) team, which owns the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Vikings will win head-to-head ties over the Saints (10-4) and Rams (10-4).



The No. 3 seed if...

They go 1-1 and lose the first-round bye to the Panthers, who need to win out (vs. Tampa, at Atlanta) and have the Saints lose once for Carolina to win its division. Then the 12-win Panthers would leap the Vikings for the NFC’s No. 2 seed. If the Vikings go 0-2 in the final two games, they could be leapt by either the Rams or Saints, who both need to win out for a shot at a first-round bye.



The No. 4 seed if...

They go 0-2 and get leapt in the standings by the Rams and either the Saints or Panthers.




Vikings playoff scenarios: How the Vikings could win the No. 1 seed -- or lose the No. 2 seed

Author:  PurpleMustReign [ Mon Dec 18, 2017 6:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Playoff scenarios

Can the still get a bye if they lose the last two?

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Author:  Just Me [ Mon Dec 18, 2017 7:34 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Playoff scenarios

PurpleMustReign wrote:
Can the still get a bye if they lose the last two?

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Yes, but we would no longer be "in control." We would need other teams to lose in order to maintain the #2 seed.

Author:  Raptorman [ Mon Dec 18, 2017 8:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Playoff scenarios

Vike Fan 4 Life wrote:
I thought strength of victory was the tie breaker.

Two Clubs
Head-to-head, if applicable.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss.


Had the Rams beat the Eagles the Vikings would own the tiebreaker.

Author:  jackal [ Mon Dec 18, 2017 10:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Playoff scenarios

Dam I wish we would have beat the panthers

Home field is pretty much lost now at some
Point. Maybe the Eagles glass slipper will fall
off and we will get our games at home. The giants
almost beat them and I think they might lose
in the playoffs.

Author:  cstelter [ Mon Dec 18, 2017 10:54 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Playoff scenarios

Raptorman wrote:
Vike Fan 4 Life wrote:
I thought strength of victory was the tie breaker.

Two Clubs
Head-to-head, if applicable.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss.


Had the Rams beat the Eagles the Vikings would own the tiebreaker.


I think the problem is now NFC record and then common opponents. PHI is currently 10-1 and we are 8-2 against NFC. We need to win 2 games and PHI has to lose to DAL on the last game *just* to get past the third tie breaker. Then it goes to common games-- LAR, WAS, CAR, CHI are four common opponents. If we win out we are 4-1 against those while they are already 5-0 against them. So we need them to *also* lose to OAK.

Author:  cstelter [ Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:19 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Playoff scenarios

I think the Vikings are the only team left in the running for HFA and the only scenario for PHI to lose it it is the 2 PHI losses + 2 MIN victories scenario.

Win 2 and we have the 1st round bye and a 25% chance of HFA if you count Eagles have a 50-50 chance of beating each OAK and DAL.

As long as we win at least 1 game, we're safe from NO, and LAR coming up to beat us out for a first round bye, but if CAR can win their division, that's the one scenario where 1 win will not be enough to insure a bye.

GB is a big game for a first round bye, not strictly must win, but if we lose, we will no longer control our own destiny toward a 1st round bye.

I think we can clinch the 1st round bye next week with a win over GB and CAR losing to TB.

If CAR keeps winning and we drop one of the next 2, then we really need CAR to lose the division to NO, so I'll also be rooting for NO over Atlanta.

Lose the final two, we still get to host a wildcard game. I suppose if NO loses one, LAR loses one and CAR loses 2 we could still get a 2nd round bye. NO or ATL wins the south in that scenario, so we have tie breaker over them and would have it over LAR.

We still control our own destiny-- take care of business and nothing else matters-- we will get a first round by and at least a couple shots at hosting the NFCC.
--
Craig

Author:  PurpleMustReign [ Mon Dec 18, 2017 12:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Playoff scenarios

I think we xcan lose next week and as long as CAR loses we are ok. We have tie breakers over everyone else.

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Author:  w_huisman [ Mon Dec 18, 2017 1:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Playoff scenarios

I think the most likely way this plays out is that we end up the 2 seed, but play every playoff game at home because the Eagles lose in the first round.

Author:  cstelter [ Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Playoff scenarios

w_huisman wrote:
I think the most likely way this plays out is that we end up the 2 seed, but play every playoff game at home because the Eagles lose in the first round.


That will most likely require one of the south teams going into PHI and winning, no? In that scenario we could well play 2 more home games against NFC South teams to get to the big game. Unless LAR drops one of the last two and falls behind a south team for the #4 seed. Then it's up to them to go into PHI. I like LAR's chances of beating PHI at PHI better than NO/ATL/CAR, but we'll cross that bridge if it comes to be.

Author:  TSonn [ Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Playoff scenarios

jackal wrote:
Dam I wish we would have beat the panthers

Home field is pretty much lost now at some
Point. Maybe the Eagles glass slipper will fall
off and we will get our games at home. The giants
almost beat them and I think they might lose
in the playoffs.


I think getting home field throughout the playoffs as the #2 seed is the most likely scenario since the Eagles don't play many tough teams week 16/17 but will most likely play ATL, NO, or CAR in the divisional round.

Author:  PurpleMustReign [ Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Playoff scenarios

I think people are really underestimating Philly. They are a good team. They had a bad game against Eli Manning. That doesn't mean they are a bad team.

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Author:  TSonn [ Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Playoff scenarios

PurpleMustReign wrote:
I think people are really underestimating Philly. They are a good team. They had a bad game against Eli Manning. That doesn't mean they are a bad team.

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I think CAR and ATL win in PHI.
I think PHI would win against NO or LA or anyone else who makes the playoffs from the NFC.

Author:  Rieux [ Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Playoff scenarios

The sort of complicated/interesting possibility here is if the Vikings go 1-1 in their remaining games, giving the Rams, Saints, and Panthers a shot at winning out and tying them. Amusingly (well, *I* think it's amusing), in any 3- or 4-way tie among those teams, the Vikings win. The only tie in which the Vikings would lose out on tiebreakers is a specifically 2-way tie with Carolina. As a result, as long as Minnesota can win one out of two from Green Bay and Chicago, they'll have the #2 seed unless Carolina wins out and both New Orleans and L.A. lose at least one game.

Looking at those teams' remaining schedules, it appears to me that both the Saints (home to Atlanta, at Tampa Bay) and Rams (at Tennessee, home to San Francisco) should probably be favored to win out. The Panthers have an easy Week 16 game at home vs. Tampa Bay (which is not good for the Vikings' chances of clinching the bye next week), but their Week 17 tilt at Atlanta looks tougher than any game that the Vikings, Rams, or Saints have remaining on their respective schedules.

Author:  mansquatch [ Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Playoff scenarios

NFC S all beat on each other the next two weeks. No clear dominant team there IMO.

Philly barely squeezed by a pathetic Giants club this week. They are not dominant. Same thing with their win over LAR. Goff put up 35 points on them. (He only scored 7 on us.)

Philly Defense hasn't proved itself against good QB, the best QBs it's faced are Eli Manning and Russel Wilson. Wilson ate them. Manning lit them up yesterday.

In the playoffs one of 5 QBs will likely be going up there to face them: If could be Goff, Ryan, Brees, Newton, or Wilson. Of those 5, their defense has only shut down Newton, the worst passer of the bunch. Wilson put up big numbers on their defense as did Goff. Ryan and Brees, whom they have not faced, are the best passers in the bunch. So it is likely that defense will face the best QB it has seen all year in the divisional round of the playoffs.

There is no guarantee that as the top seed the NFCCG will be played in Philadelphia. It is entirely possible that one of those NFC S teams come out of there with a victory. Especially without Wentz playing.

Not to be arrogant, but the Vikings are best team in the NFC right now. The media just doesn't want to admit it. The only proven dominant defense in the NFC is the Vikings. (SEA has too many people on IR.) The NFC S will likely send 3 teams to the playoffs and we've already beaten 2 of them. We crushed the Rams as well. Only team we haven't played is Philly. If we play CAR again, it is likely they we play them at home.

Consider that it is entirely possible that on Wildcard weekend of the 4 teams playing we'll have beaten 3 of them.

Author:  S197 [ Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Playoff scenarios

If the Vikings and Philly win, and Panthers lose, the game against the Bears is meaningless. Even though it would suck to lose the #1 seed, it might be nice to be able to rest starters and give Teddy a game to knock off the rust.

Honestly, if the Vikings lose the next two, they don't deserve the #2 seed.

Author:  J. Kapp 11 [ Mon Dec 18, 2017 5:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Playoff scenarios

mansquatch wrote:
Not to be arrogant, but the Vikings are best team in the NFC right now. The media just doesn't want to admit it.

Dude, I was listening to Colin Cowherd's show today. (Why? I have no idea. It was sports radio, I guess, and I'm a sucker for controversial radioheads.)

He was opining that the Patriots likely will win the AFC because they're the Patriots and Belichick always finds a way, even when they're flawed.

Then he started talking about the NFC contenders, and why he thinks each of them would fall short against the Patriots. He talked about the Eagles, and that he can't trust Nick Foles. He talked about the Rams being "the most talented roster in the NFL" but too young. He talked about the Panthers and how inconsistent Cam Newton is. He talked about the Saints being very young on defense. He even talked about the stupid Falcons.

He never, ever mentioned the Minnesota Vikings. Not once. I mean, if you're going to run down each contender, why would you ignore the No. 2 seed? Especially the No. 2 seed that would be playing the Super Bowl AT HOME should they make it!

This is almost comical. Every major news outlet is completely overlooking this team. In some ways, it's good. Zimmer will use that as motivation. But as a fan, it sucks to sit there and watch show after show offer nothing about the Vikings.

Author:  Crax [ Mon Dec 18, 2017 6:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Playoff scenarios

J. Kapp 11 wrote:
This is almost comical. Every major news outlet is completely overlooking this team. In some ways, it's good. Zimmer will use that as motivation. But as a fan, it sucks to sit there and watch show after show offer nothing about the Vikings.

I live in Utah which means I almost never hear anything on sports radio locally about the Vikings, but the espn affiliate here plays Golic and Wingo(Formerly Mike and Mike show) in the mornings. They spent a fair amount of time talking about the Vikings and Bridgewater and some about possibilities of playing in their home stadium on the show today.

Hour 4: Ryan Clark: 12/18/17 on this link http://www.espn.com/espnradio/play?id=21804399

Author:  dead_poet [ Mon Dec 18, 2017 6:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Playoff scenarios

Tossing this nugget here: Packers re-signed QB Joe Callahan. Might be a sign that if Atlanta wins they shut Rodgers down.

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