Sam-Teddy-Case thread

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halfgiz
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Re: Sam-Teddy-Case thread

Post by halfgiz » Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:42 pm

Raptorman wrote: Don't think so. I don't see any team offering him starter money and a starting slot. If you do, I would like to know who you think would sign him to start?
There are a lot of QB poor teams in the NFL. If anything next year being a QB class, Keenum could get hired to groom a QB. If the Vikings would have put Keenum up for trade before the trade deadline how many teams do you think would have jumped on trying to make a deal?
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Re: Sam-Teddy-Case thread

Post by DK Sweets » Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:58 pm

halfgiz wrote:There are a lot of QB poor teams in the NFL. If anything next year being a QB class, Keenum could get hired to groom a QB. If the Vikings would have put Keenum up for trade before the trade deadline how many teams do you think would have jumped on trying to make a deal?
Zero, honestly. Which teams do you think would have?
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Re: Sam-Teddy-Case thread

Post by halfgiz » Tue Nov 07, 2017 10:24 pm

DK Sweets wrote:Zero, honestly. Which teams do you think would have?

Next year Keenum will be a free agent. And this is a year for him to showcase his talents. And to be honest he has done pretty well showing what he has to offer. He has proven he is a leader,winner and he can extend plays.
He currently has the # 5 QB rating in the NFL, he's the 4th accurate passer under pressure in the NFL.
I would say with a good agent he won't have problems landing a job.
Jets, Browns, Colts maybe, Jags, Cards?Broncos, Bills.
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Re: Sam-Teddy-Case thread

Post by 720pete » Tue Nov 07, 2017 11:15 pm

There are at least a handful of teams who will pay Keenum more than backup level money next season. He won't be getting a starting qb contract or anything, but you can expect him to go somewhere where he could compete to be a week 1 starter.
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Re: Sam-Teddy-Case thread

Post by halfgiz » Tue Nov 07, 2017 11:36 pm

Chris Mortensen
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Vikings QB Sam Bradford did have his left knee scoped Tuesday by Dr. James Andrews, who "cleaned up" the knee in hopes of easing pain and discomfort, sources said. Team decision still pending on IR. Update coming on ESPN.com
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Re: Sam-Teddy-Case thread

Post by dead_poet » Fri Nov 10, 2017 5:55 pm

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Kase or Bridgewater and when?

Post by mike2mike » Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:59 am

With 7 wins and 7 games left I believe we make the playoffs either decision... and even if that I sort in question it is still pretty good odds that isn't going to change too much regardless of QB decision. That leaves this a decision to prepare for the playofffs.
Do we know for certain what Teddy post injury brings to the table?
How many games does Teddy need in order to get on the same page with his WRs and get used to the team around him in the Shurmer offensive system?
How much rest do you want to give Kase before the playoffs if you want him for the playoffs or at least want the option?
If we lose to the Rams do we still want the same QB facing them in the playoffs if it is Kase? What about if it I sort Teddy? Do we prefer clarity or keeping our options open?
Do we want to rest the presumed playoff QB week 17 of the NFL season?

Other questions?
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Re: Kase or Bridgewater and when?

Post by 720pete » Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:57 am

It's actually Case, not Kase.

Anyway, from a long-term perspective, the Vikings are being victims of their own success. If Case Keenum starts through the end of the year into the playoffs, and Teddy doesn't play this season, what do you do with Teddy when he becomes a free agent? You haven't seen him play a game in 2 years, do you give him big money or let him walk?

Secondly, Case Keenum is only signed for one year. Case will also be a FA, and if he keeps his decent play up, he will most certainly attract interest from other teams looking for a starting QB.

What do you do, sign Case or Teddy?
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Re: Kase or Bridgewater and when?

Post by Raptorman » Tue Nov 14, 2017 1:21 pm

720pete wrote:It's actually Case, not Kase.

Anyway, from a long-term perspective, the Vikings are being victims of their own success. If Case Keenum starts through the end of the year into the playoffs, and Teddy doesn't play this season, what do you do with Teddy when he becomes a free agent? You haven't seen him play a game in 2 years, do you give him big money or let him walk?

Secondly, Case Keenum is only signed for one year. Case will also be a FA, and if he keeps his decent play up, he will most certainly attract interest from other teams looking for a starting QB.

What do you do, sign Case or Teddy?
Actually, I think you can sign them both. From what he has been saying Case likes it in MN. And I don't know if anyone will really offer a guaranteed spot on a team as a starter for him. If you can think of a team that will let us know.
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Re: Sam-Teddy-Case thread

Post by dead_poet » Tue Nov 14, 2017 1:32 pm

Merged related topics
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Re: Sam-Teddy-Case thread

Post by dead_poet » Tue Nov 14, 2017 1:33 pm

Interesting perspective: using economics to decide.

https://purpleptsd.com/how-game-theory- ... b-dilemma/
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Re: Sam-Teddy-Case thread

Post by mike2mike » Tue Nov 14, 2017 2:24 pm

dead_poet wrote:Interesting perspective: using economics to decide.

https://purpleptsd.com/how-game-theory- ... b-dilemma/
Really interesting but I think that only answers that starting Teddy at some point this year is good...
The next equation is WHEN to start Teddy....and how important we rate this year vs future contract decisions...
The thing it doesn't emphasize enough is the value in the element of surprise and uncertainty and the priority that should be applied to playoff games as well as must win to secure the playoffs or secure the first round bye type games...
Let's assume playoff implications are not going to change too much given either starting Keenum or Bridgewater.. we still have high probability of the same finish... this may or may not be true but it simplifies the problem and weights the decision as a decision with the intent of maximizing playoff odds which is so much greater in importance anyways that the assumption has to give us a close to "optimal" decision.

It is probable that if this team goes onto win the Super Bowl that we will face the Rams yet again...
If we look at all failures as equal and failure to make the Super Bowl as a failure then we should make the decision that optimizes success into the playoffs and Super Bowl....
That is a different problem because starting Teddy only in the playoffs has maximum uncertainty for the defense we face but minimum chemistry and experience and comfort with what game plan to call with Teddy (and Teddy comfort in Shurmer offense and with the 2017 Vikings offense.
Starting him week 11 maximizes play calling and comfort with players and experience but minimizes surprise element.
It is very possible that the Teddy we play week 11 is a different Teddy than we play vs the Rams if we face them in the playoffs but how does that compare to playing Keenum week 11 and Teddy in week 12 and from then on in?

If we win week 11 with impressive QB play (whether it is Keenum or Teddy) sticking with that QB probably is a good idea if/when we face them in the playoffs. If we lose with Keenum there is a disadvantage in playing Keenum in the playoffs especially va the Rams in the confidence as well as teams having a better blueprint on how a playoff caliber team can beat the Vikings... however if we lose with a Keenum and THEN start Teddy at some point later on there is an intangible benefit to having a different QB in a renewed confidence and positive expectation among Vikings and the Rams will have an uncertainty as well.
If we play and lose with Teddy we maintain the option to go back to Keenum but sticking with Teddy is not quite as disadvantageous as playing and sticking with Keenum in that he and the offensive coordinator and the players are still on the same page and it will potentially be a much different game plan moving forward. We also gain the advantage of seeing Teddy vs a playoff caliber opponent which is pretty valuable for evaluation. However, that really isn't a consideration since we can play him before the Lions and Panthers and possibly Falcons and still evaluate him vs playoff caliber opponents. But it's also fair to suggest that if we postpone the decision to start Teddy we still may have to play him vs a playoff opponent, although it still may be better to do so as Teddy'a FIRST start or 2nd start before the Coordinator and him and the players are running at maximum efficiency and chemistry....

We have seen Keenum vs two borderline playoff opponents.... the Redskins (Win)and Lions (Loss by no real fault of Keenum'S). I don't remember if Keenum played a full starting game vs the Steelers or not.
Vikings have the Lions and Falcons (borderline playoff) and the Panthers (likely playoff opponent) left on their schedule in addition to the Rams so starting Teddy sometime after this week would still allow us a fair evaluation of how he stacks up vs playoff caliber opponents

Given the importance of the playoffs and the element of surprise I kind of lean towards Keenum getting the start in week 11 and Teddy coming in for some future game and I would like Teddy to play vs the Panthers. I think game theory would probably back up that decision when balancing uncertainty, element of surprise, information and the "intangibles" that you can only try to estimate and handicap their importance.
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Re: Sam-Teddy-Case thread

Post by mike2mike » Tue Nov 14, 2017 2:45 pm

I think Start Keenum vs Rams and Lions and give us some more data on how he does vs likely playoff teams while giving us maximum amount of options vs the playoffs but also bringing Teddy into play Falcons and Panthers and possibly the remainder of the schedule...
The idea is by playing Keenum you don't reveal too much behind your likely playoff QB in Teddy to two likely playoff teams (Lions may still not make it but they still have a pretty good shot and an easy schedule outside of playing us) and potential playoff opponents... you may reveal a little bit to two potential playoff opponents by starting Teddy vs Panthers and Falcons... however, it will be early enough in the process that Teddy and Shurmer and the players may not have totally determined the best game plan and gotten on the same page so it will still be like them facing a new opponent because we will have new layers of the offense and new wrinkles...

Additionally, if Keenum wins one of the next 2 or More he's shown that he offers us a pretty close to 50% chance of winning (or more) vs playoff teams between his earlier games facing the Lions at home (L) Redskins away (W) and Lions away and Rams at home so regardless of whatever adjustments made he still gives us a chance at winning in the playoffs if we HAVE to go back to him and both the Falcons and Panthers won't have the chance for any psychological advantage of beating us with Keenum at QB so it keeps our options open.
Even if we stick with Teddy after say losing to both Panthers and Falcons and he goes onto win a few games and get us into the playoffs he will probably be a different QB and there will still be enough element of surprise and unpredictability...

I think if we start Teddy week 11 teams will have tape on him and by the time we get to play the Falcons and Panthers we will be pretty much showing our hand and especially by the time playoffs come around and worse, we will have also partially showed our hand to the Rams and Lions as well either of which we may face in the playoffs....
Go with Keenum next 2 weeks then give Teddy the reigns unless Keenum wins both of the next two then maybe you give Keenum at least the Falcon game with the idea that he may be a really good bet as a playoff QB and if you're winning you don't mind showing your hand as much. Teddy still can get some games after that (week 13-16? week 14,15,16? Week 15&16?) as Keenum rests and then maybe you let Keenum have the start week 17 so he doesn't go into the playoffs rusty. If Teddy blows it out of the water then maybe you still have the option but then the opponent doesn't know who to gameplan for and there are minimal information given away with teddy only playing a few games which is an advantage and Keenum having no recent history of being shut down which is an advantage as well)
If the Vikes are pretty confident they will be .500 vs playoff teams or maybe slightly better with Keenum as QB there may be an advantage at playing Teddy early but it comes at a cost of revealing a little more if Teddy continues to start....

So as much as Teddy may be a boost to the fans and such I think waiting another week or two before Teddy plays is the right decision.
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Re: Sam-Teddy-Case thread

Post by tmscr » Tue Nov 14, 2017 8:04 pm

I get a kick out of anyone who says the team can win/cannot win with either one of these guys.

Teddy has 28 games started in 2 seasons and hasn’t played in almost 2 calendar years
Case has 31 games started over 5 seasons and has never started more than 9 games in one season

So essentially neither guy has played the equivalent of TWO full seasons in their careers. Teddy has missed over a year and case has never had long term, consistent starting time. Arguably, teddy has had more playing talent surrounding him than case has had. Also, teddy has had one coach, case has played for wade Phillips, Bill O’Brien and Jeff fisher. Their numbers are fairly similar overall with a slight edge to teddy.

Again, I know small sample sizes are the norm in a sport that plays the fewest games per year of all the major sports. This easily lends itself to over and under exaggerations of a given player’s skill ceiling. I get it. BUT, I just can’t see an overwhelming argument that TB should start this season for any reason besides injury to Keenum. Case will never be a HOF Qb, but there’s no reason he can’t help us win and carry us into January.

What really impressed me about last Sunday’s game was, after back to back INTs, when the Vikings had zero momentum, he was able to lead a drive down field for a colossal FG to put the team up two scores. He had two third down completions and should have had a third if thielen was able to make a catch on an admittedly tough throw. All while making some pressure filled, big throws. We’re going to need the hot and sharp hand over these next 4 tough games. We don’t need a guy who hasn’t seen a pass rush since January 2016.
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Re: Sam-Teddy-Case thread

Post by PurpleKoolaid » Tue Nov 14, 2017 8:45 pm

tmscr wrote:I get a kick out of anyone who says the team can win/cannot win with either one of these guys.

Teddy has 28 games started in 2 seasons and hasn’t played in almost 2 calendar years
Case has 31 games started over 5 seasons and has never started more than 9 games in one season

So essentially neither guy has played the equivalent of TWO full seasons in their careers. Teddy has missed over a year and case has never had long term, consistent starting time. Arguably, teddy has had more playing talent surrounding him than case has had. Also, teddy has had one coach, case has played for wade Phillips, Bill O’Brien and Jeff fisher. Their numbers are fairly similar overall with a slight edge to teddy.

Again, I know small sample sizes are the norm in a sport that plays the fewest games per year of all the major sports. This easily lends itself to over and under exaggerations of a given player’s skill ceiling. I get it. BUT, I just can’t see an overwhelming argument that TB should start this season for any reason besides injury to Keenum. Case will never be a HOF Qb, but there’s no reason he can’t help us win and carry us into January.

What really impressed me about last Sunday’s game was, after back to back INTs, when the Vikings had zero momentum, he was able to lead a drive down field for a colossal FG to put the team up two scores. He had two third down completions and should have had a third if thielen was able to make a catch on an admittedly tough throw. All while making some pressure filled, big throws. We’re going to need the hot and sharp hand over these next 4 tough games. We don’t need a guy who hasn’t seen a pass rush since January 2016.
But we do need a guy who threw back to back INT's, one of which was a pick 6? Keep in mind Teddy has NEVER seen an Oline like this, nor played with WR's playing like they are now. I think Teddy can shake the rust off soon, I am guessing Zimmer thinks the same thing.
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