Spielman has a plan to avoid repeating 2016

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Mothman
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Spielman has a plan to avoid repeating 2016

Post by Mothman » Fri Feb 24, 2017 8:59 am

The Vikings GM says "I hate failure with a passion".

http://www.startribune.com/vikings-rick ... 414675223/
Since the tumultuous 2016 season ended, the front office and coaching staff have spent the past seven weeks taking a long look at their roster, comparing their players to the ones who are expected to be available starting March 9 in free agency and in April’s NFL draft.

Coach Mike Zimmer has spent more time in offensive meetings, hoping to help coordinator Pat Shurmur resuscitate a lifeless offense.

Spielman himself has been introspective, conducting a study looking into the correlation between when an offensive lineman is drafted and how successful they were at the NFL level. That is noteworthy because in the past 10 drafts the Vikings have selected only two linemen before the fourth round.

Unsurprisingly, Spielman concluded that a “much lower percentage” of the linemen picked after the first three rounds became quality blockers.
Maybe that study should have been conducted a little sooner.
The scouting staff just stacked their draft board, pending any final tweaks after getting last looks at prospects at the combine and pro days. Spielman seemed most excited about the running back class, which is noteworthy because the Vikings have a decision to make on a certain $18 million man.

Spielman acknowledged that Adrian Peterson has a “significant” salary on the books for 2017, one that the Vikings aren’t expected to pay in full. He said he has yet to discuss that unrealistic contract with Peterson or his agent. That likely will happen next week in Indianapolis at the combine.

Free agency starts right after the scouting combine. That quick turnaround means the Vikings also will be busy in Indianapolis discussing new deals with the agents for their pending free agents, including Munnerlyn, left tackle Matt Kalil and wideout Cordarrelle Patterson.
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Re: Spielman has a plan to avoid repeating 2016

Post by Mothman » Fri Feb 24, 2017 9:15 am

http://www.twincities.com/2017/02/23/qa ... a-passion/
On the offensive line struggles:

“When you end up playing with the amount of offensive linemen we had to play — which is probably, besides the quarterback, one of the most difficult areas to fill — there’s a positive and negative. A lot of backups … you’re not going to have $10 million backups in this league. Your backups are going to be economically feasible so you can fit them in the (salary) cap. A lot of times backups are able to get you through three, four or five games without getting exposed, but if you have to play them for 14-16 games exposure, they may not be able to match up every week. I know we can’t have $10 million back-ups at every position up front on the offensive line.”
What a lame answer... of course you can't have $10 million backups at every position on the offensive line. That's why, in the era of the rookie salary cap, you have to wisely and sufficiently invest in quality young offensive linemen and build a good depth chart that way. Let's not pretend solid offensive lineman all cost $10 million a year either. Joe Berger's not great but he's been a quality backup for years and he's started the last two seasons for a combined total of less than $3.5 million.

It sounds to me like the Vikes will try to bring Kalil back, as many here have speculated:
Assessing left tackle Matt Kalil, who is due to become an unrestricted free agent:

“He was having, before he got injured, the best offseason and probably the best training camp before his hip started bothering him. We were very excited about the direction that Matt was going, and unfortunately, when he did hurt his hip it did affect his play when he tried to play through it. So I think Matt, there’s no question about the ability part being there, it’s just can he become more consistent. The biggest thing with Matt is getting him to play at a consistent level week in and week out. We felt at the time he was on the path to do that. We have a plan in place on everything, but I also know I have a pretty good history of trying to keep our own guys as well.”
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Re: Spielman has a plan to avoid repeating 2016

Post by halfgiz » Fri Feb 24, 2017 10:52 am

Unsurprisingly, Spielman concluded that a “much lower percentage” of the linemen picked after the first three rounds became quality blockers.
it's took him how many seasons to figure that out ? :whistle:

Myself I would be surprised if we signed any big names. Even Kalil is a lower tier 2 tackle in my opinion.
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Re: Spielman has a plan to avoid repeating 2016

Post by Thaumaturgist » Fri Feb 24, 2017 1:12 pm

halfgiz wrote: it's took him how many seasons to figure that out ?
I know right... I don't know why he needed a study to figure that out. Only makes sense.
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Re: Spielman has a plan to avoid repeating 2016

Post by mansquatch » Fri Feb 24, 2017 2:34 pm

You guys are reading what you want to read.

He never said he didn't believe or didn't expect the conclusion one way or the other, he said they did a study and it showed that those drafted late didn't pan out as frequently as the others. The author even added the word "Unsurprisingly" to the sentence. Unsurprisingly, this would imply that the result was not unexpected.

Late draft picks, unsurprisingly, frequently do not pan out at ALL positions. (see what I did there?) Does anyone seriously think that Spielman doesn't already know this as an NFL GM with a tenure of over 10 years? If that was the case, then why didn't he trade away even more top picks over the years so he had a plethora of late round picks to find all these starters he supposedly believes are there? Why did he trade 4 picks to draft CP84 in the 1st round?

The fair criticism is that they only drafted two OL in the first 2 rounds over the 10 year period. Even that criticism is not bulletproof, though. They did manage to field the 32nd ranked defense in the league in 2013. There is a reasonable argument that since 2012 they might have had bigger fish to fry?
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Re: Spielman has a plan to avoid repeating 2016

Post by Mothman » Fri Feb 24, 2017 3:47 pm

mansquatch wrote:You guys are reading what you want to read.

He never said he didn't believe or didn't expect the conclusion one way or the other, he said they did a study and it showed that those drafted late didn't pan out as frequently as the others. The author even added the word "Unsurprisingly" to the sentence. Unsurprisingly, this would imply that the result was not unexpected.

Late draft picks, unsurprisingly, frequently do not pan out at ALL positions. (see what I did there?) Does anyone seriously think that Spielman doesn't already know this as an NFL GM with a tenure of over 10 years? If that was the case, then why didn't he trade away even more top picks over the years so he had a plethora of late round picks to find all these starters he supposedly believes are there? Why did he trade 4 picks to draft CP84 in the 1st round?

The fair criticism is that they only drafted two OL in the first 2 rounds over the 10 year period. Even that criticism is not bulletproof, though. They did manage to field the 32nd ranked defense in the league in 2013. There is a reasonable argument that since 2012 they might have had bigger fish to fry?
I don't believe there actually is a particularly reasonable argument that they've had bigger fish to fry. First, I think the various responses above are just a sarcastic reaction to the article and a manifestation of our frustration with Spielman's strategy along the OL. It's been obvious for years it wasn't working.

Regarding the "fish': the defensive ranking in 2013 involved a roster Spielman had an intimate hand in building so to me, it makes a poor mitigating factor in his defense, especially since the offense has been in the bottom six for the past 3 years, clearly in need of plenty of attention. The passing game was ranked 31st in 2012, a year before the particular defensive ranking you mentioned and it was back to #31 again in 2015. In fact, the passing game has been in the league's bottom 5 in four of the last six years and the Vikings have been among the top 10 teams in sacks allowed in 5 of the last 6 years (and among the top 5 more than once in that stretch). All of that cries out for better OL play, among other things. The need for the Vikings to improve up front has been readily apparent since Childress' final season and only more apparent in recent years (including 2013).
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Re: Spielman has a plan to avoid repeating 2016

Post by VikingPaul73 » Fri Feb 24, 2017 6:24 pm

It seems contradictory to me that, on one hand, he acknowledges that OL is the hardest position to fill next to QB, but on the other hand, he barely ever drafts one in rounds 1-3 (twice in a decade) and needed to conduct a study to determine that wasn't conducive to finding quality OL

Edit: on second thought, maybe it makes sense. It was the second hardest position for RICK to fill because he was hamstrung by always drafting in rounds 4-7 before he had access to this earth shattering study.
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Re: Spielman has a plan to avoid repeating 2016

Post by Mothman » Fri Feb 24, 2017 6:32 pm

VikingPaul73 wrote:It seems contradictory to me that, on one hand, he acknowledges that OL is the hardest position to fill next to QB, but on the other hand, he barely ever drafts one in rounds 1-3 (twice in a decade) and needed to conduct a study to determine that wasn't conducive to finding quality OL

Edit: on second thought, maybe it makes sense. It was the second hardest position for RICK to fill because he was hamstrung by always drafting in rounds 4-7 before he had access to this earth shattering study.
:rofl:
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Re: Spielman has a plan to avoid repeating 2016

Post by VikingPaul73 » Fri Feb 24, 2017 6:35 pm

Anyone else surprised that Rick hasn't spoken to AD or his agent yet?

Not much time for negotiation. This makes me think they will just release him. If they really wanted him on a lower salary I would think they'd be talking already about now numbers

I guess they could just give him a firm take it or leave it offer but if so why wouldn't they have already done that?
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Re: Spielman has a plan to avoid repeating 2016

Post by Mothman » Fri Feb 24, 2017 7:55 pm

VikingPaul73 wrote:Anyone else surprised that Rick hasn't spoken to AD or his agent yet?

Not much time for negotiation. This makes me think they will just release him. If they really wanted him on a lower salary I would think they'd be talking already about now numbers
I think there's a pretty good chance they will release him but I doubt they've done much, if any, negotiation with the free agents they intend to keep either. For some reason, negotiations almost always seem to start at the combine now, even though it would seem to make sense to give them more time. Maybe it's all part of the strategy. Does a shorter negotiating window before free agency create more pressure for a player to agree to a deal? I don't understand it.
I guess they could just give him a firm take it or leave it offer but if so why wouldn't they have already done that?
:confused: It's puzzling.
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Re: Spielman has a plan to avoid repeating 2016

Post by IrishViking » Mon Feb 27, 2017 9:19 am

Mothman wrote: I think there's a pretty good chance they will release him but I doubt they've done much, if any, negotiation with the free agents they intend to keep either. For some reason, negotiations almost always seem to start at the combine now, even though it would seem to make sense to give them more time. Maybe it's all part of the strategy. Does a shorter negotiating window before free agency create more pressure for a player to agree to a deal? I don't understand it.
:confused: It's puzzling.

I could just be that they have zero interest in keeping him and everything said publicly is just for image.
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Re: Spielman has a plan to avoid repeating 2016

Post by mansquatch » Mon Feb 27, 2017 10:48 am

In 2013 they had the 31st or 32nd ranked Defense in the league. How is it hard to buy the argument that they had bigger problems in the face of that performance? (They were also putrid on that side of the ball in 2011.) The team also had a glaring need at QB in 2011 and 2014 (arguably also 2017 since we traded that pick for SB.) that necessitated the use of 1st round picks. They added Kalil in one of those drafts as well. Up until really 2015, WR had been considered a position of great need as well. Less we forget the eras of Jerome Simpson, Greg Jennings, and Mike Wallace. They've now turned that around as well as the defense, but the OL hasn't done as well.

I think there are three glaring selections that are questionable: The trade for CP84 could have been used to add OL talent. Ditto on the Mackenzie Alexander and Treadwell picks. The Waynes pick also could flirt with this distinction, but i think he'll end up being an elite defender. Keep in mind that in that case, Rhodes has taken 3-4 seasons to really become an elite NFL CB.

However, it is unfair to cast this in the lens of OL only. In the last 4 years they've built a strong core of WR, an elite NFL defense, and have finally seemed to acquire a competitive starter at QB. It isn't like they've pissed away all those picks, they just haven't allocated them to OL.
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Re: Spielman has a plan to avoid repeating 2016

Post by Mothman » Mon Feb 27, 2017 12:14 pm

mansquatch wrote:In 2013 they had the 31st or 32nd ranked Defense in the league. How is it hard to buy the argument that they had bigger problems in the face of that performance?
Because that performance was 3 full seasons ago and as I illustrated above, they have also had serious issues on offense that both preceded 2013 and which have been evident since 2013. To put it another way, if the 32nd-ranked defense in 2013 was a call-to-arms to improve that unit, weren't offensive rankings of 27, 29, and 28 over the past 3 seasons similarly compelling evidence that the offense was also in serious need of attention?
(They were also putrid on that side of the ball in 2011.) The team also had a glaring need at QB in 2011 and 2014 (arguably also 2017 since we traded that pick for SB.) that necessitated the use of 1st round picks. They added Kalil in one of those drafts as well. Up until really 2015, WR had been considered a position of great need as well. Less we forget the eras of Jerome Simpson, Greg Jennings, and Mike Wallace. They've now turned that around as well as the defense, but the OL hasn't done as well.

I think there are three glaring selections that are questionable: The trade for CP84 could have been used to add OL talent. Ditto on the Mackenzie Alexander and Treadwell picks. The Waynes pick also could flirt with this distinction, but i think he'll end up being an elite defender. Keep in mind that in that case, Rhodes has taken 3-4 seasons to really become an elite NFL CB.

However, it is unfair to cast this in the lens of OL only. In the last 4 years they've built a strong core of WR, an elite NFL defense, and have finally seemed to acquire a competitive starter at QB. It isn't like they've pissed away all those picks, they just haven't allocated them to OL.
It's a solid, improved WR corps but I wouldn't call it strong, especially since it's not yet clear who will still be on it next season. The defense isn't elite (they're just not there yet) but they're very good. The Vikes stumbled into a starter at QB by desperately spending their 3rd first round pick in 6 years on the position and we don't yet know if he'll even be with the team beyond 2017, much less if he can actually guide a team into the postseason and win in the playoffs. Bradford's certainly not likely to do that if Spielman cant get his act together with the OL. The now bottom-of-the-barrel running game is going to need blocking too.

I don't view Spielman's successes and failures purely through the lens of the OL. That just happened to be what we were talking about above. As I've said many times now, Spielman's job is building a complete team that can compete for a championship and in my view, he hasn't been very good at it, although he sure has some enthusiastic advocates.

I hope the defense becomes elite, the WR corps goes from solid to superb, Bradford turns out to be the QB we've been waiting for forever, and especially that the team's weakest areas soon become strengths but I'm tired of the overall mediocrity Spielman has pretty consistently delivered for a decade now. I'm not going to be dazzled by a strong defensive ranking or a solid year from Thielen, Diggs, and company when basically, we're still seeing the same old results from the team. There's a tendency here to point to the improvement we've seen in a few areas of the team and forget it was necessary, in part, because those areas broke down under Spielman's management (and co-management). There's also a tendency to overlook or forgive that while the latest improvements were made, other areas of the team were breaking down badly. A shiny new defense might be pretty but when it's accompanied by an increasingly poor offense it just adds up to more of the same old disappointment.
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Re: Spielman has a plan to avoid repeating 2016

Post by Pondering Her Percy » Mon Feb 27, 2017 1:10 pm

Mothman wrote: Because that performance was 3 full seasons ago and as I illustrated above, they have also had serious issues on offense that both preceded 2013 and which have been evident since 2013. To put it another way, if the 32nd-ranked defense in 2013 was a call-to-arms to improve that unit, weren't offensive rankings of 27, 29, and 28 over the past 3 seasons similarly compelling evidence that the offense was also in serious need of attention?
It's a solid, improved WR corps but I wouldn't call it strong, especially since it's not yet clear who will still be on it next season. The defense isn't elite (they're just not there yet) but they're very good. The Vikes stumbled into a starter at QB by desperately spending their 3rd first round pick in 6 years on the position and we don't yet know if he'll even be with the team beyond 2017, much less if he can actually guide a team into the postseason and win in the playoffs. Bradford's certainly not likely to do that if Spielman cant get his act together with the OL. The now bottom-of-the-barrel running game is going to need blocking too.

I don't view Spielman's successes and failures purely through the lens of the OL. That just happened to be what we were talking about above. As I've said many times now, Spielman's job is building a complete team that can compete for a championship and in my view, he hasn't been very good at it, although he sure has some enthusiastic advocates.

I hope the defense becomes elite, the WR corps goes from solid to superb, Bradford turns out to be the QB we've been waiting for forever, and especially that the team's weakest areas soon become strengths but I'm tired of the overall mediocrity Spielman has pretty consistently delivered for a decade now. I'm not going to be dazzled by a strong defensive ranking or a solid year from Thielen, Diggs, and company when basically, we're still seeing the same old results from the team. There's a tendency here to point to the improvement we've seen in a few areas of the team and forget it was necessary, in part, because those areas broke down under Spielman's management (and co-management). There's also a tendency to overlook or forgive that while the latest improvements were made, other areas of the team were breaking down badly. A shiny new defense might be pretty but when it's accompanied by an increasingly poor offense it just adds up to more of the same old disappointment.
And our defense is "very good" because of who Rick Spielman has brought in from a coaching standpoint and player standpoint. Spielman has brought in some good pieces on offense as well. The OL couldve obviously been better but I still think we need to wait and see with this offseason from an offensive perspective. I think many will be surprised with what him and Zimmer do but I could be wrong. Either way, I've always been big supporters of Zim and Spielman. That could always change if they somehow blow FA and this draft but I cant see them doing that.
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Re: Spielman has a plan to avoid repeating 2016

Post by Mothman » Mon Feb 27, 2017 1:55 pm

Pondering Her Percy wrote:And our defense is "very good" because of who Rick Spielman has brought in from a coaching standpoint and player standpoint.
Yes, it is but nobody is making an argument to the contrary so while that point IS accurate, the fact remains that a good defense doesn't constitute a good team and it shouldn't immunize Spielman against legitimate criticism. While the defense has improved, we've seen a steep decline in the quality of the offense. Ultimately, it's the quality of the whole team that matters.

Spielman has made a number good decisions over the years but the point has never been that he doesn't make good decisions, it's been that he never seems to make enough of them. The fact remains, in his decade with the team, they've won just a single playoff game (under Childress) and in his 5 years as GM, their overall record is a mediocre 41-40.
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