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 Rand: Vikings failing when it matters most 
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Post Re: Rand: Vikings failing when it matters most
mansquatch wrote:
Jim, Frasier era and Zimmer era couldn't be more different on defense.

PA:
2011: 28.1 (!)
2012: 21.8 (Frasier's best year)
2013 30.0 (!!!!)
2014: 21.4 (Zimmer's first year, worst year, and still better than Frasier)
2015: 18.9
2016: 17.4

In 2016 Seattle is at 16.2. NE and BAL are at 17.3 and the Vikings are at 17.4. That is the top 4 in the NFL. DAL is #5 at 19.0 PPG. An obvious conclusion here is this: How much better would our PPG be with better offensive play?

PF:
2011: 21.3
2012: 23.7
2013: 24.4
2014: 20.3
2015: 22.8
2016: 19.4

There is no doubt the offense has gotten worse. The three worst years on the list were year's in which AP got hurt. OL woes mark all three seasons since Zimmer came here, most notably injuries. After 2015 they tried to fix it and instead more injuries piled up. It isn't lost on me that Ponder's best season was almost a full PPG better than the TB era. That year was also the 2000 yard season, so I don't think it is the QB...

Should be worth noting that AP is probably worth 2-3 PF all by himself. Fixing Blair Walsh and having AP healthy is probably enough to swing 3 losses this season to wins.

If I am going to fault Spielman it is in over drafting CP84 (although he is showing signs of that deal maybe not being AS BAD) and wasting the recent pick on Treadwell. However, on Treadwell I think there is an argument that going OL there would have not made a difference this season given recent OL trends league wide. Still we had bigger needs that WR and Spielman should have anticipated that. They've obviusly not done a good job in bringing OL talent up to NFL speed. However, they also have built a roster that is highly competitive in the NFL. I might counter the OL argument by saying they are healthy RB and non headcase Kicker away from potentially being a #1 seed in the NFC. That has merit, the Point stats support it just as they do the OL argument.

So back to Ricky. If you accept my premise then he has built a roster capable of a 13-14 win season, playing elite defense and special teams. This is why I'm against firing Spielman. It seems extremely likely that a replacement will be WORSE. 13-14 wins in cream of the crop in the NFL. Furthermore, you have to ask the opportunity cost question. (I've brought this up before.) If swapped out one of the past moves (ergo the "miss steps") would this roster be as good as it is today? That is really the question of a GM isn't it?



Basing a coaches success based upon assumed hypothetical outcomes is an interesting idea.

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Thu Dec 08, 2016 8:58 am
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Post Re: Rand: Vikings failing when it matters most
Bottom line is, the two arent comparable IMO. Frazier had awful game management skills, was an absolutely dud on the sideline and had no better offensive mind than Zimmer does. Zimmer's defense is 20 times better than Fraziers ever was. There hasnt been much change in the offense. However, I truly dont like comparing past years to this year based on what has happened injury wise. It's really not a true tell for me.

Either way, Zimmer is a MUCH better coach than Leslie Frazier. Both as a defensive coordinator and a head coach. Period. It disgusts me that this is even being discussed

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Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:49 am
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Post Re: Rand: Vikings failing when it matters most
Pondering Her Percy wrote:
Bottom line is, the two arent comparable IMO. Frazier had awful game management skills, was an absolutely dud on the sideline and had no better offensive mind than Zimmer does. Zimmer's defense is 20 times better than Fraziers ever was. There hasnt been much change in the offense. However, I truly dont like comparing past years to this year based on what has happened injury wise. It's really not a true tell for me.

Either way, Zimmer is a MUCH better coach than Leslie Frazier. Both as a defensive coordinator and a head coach. Period. It disgusts me that this is even being discussed


Then stop discussing it. :confused:

Look, if you want to insist on a head-to-head comparison of the two coaches we can all go down that road but that was never the point of this thread.


Thu Dec 08, 2016 11:13 am
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Post Re: Rand: Vikings failing when it matters most
Mothman wrote:
Pondering Her Percy wrote:
Bottom line is, the two arent comparable IMO. Frazier had awful game management skills, was an absolutely dud on the sideline and had no better offensive mind than Zimmer does. Zimmer's defense is 20 times better than Fraziers ever was. There hasnt been much change in the offense. However, I truly dont like comparing past years to this year based on what has happened injury wise. It's really not a true tell for me.

Either way, Zimmer is a MUCH better coach than Leslie Frazier. Both as a defensive coordinator and a head coach. Period. It disgusts me that this is even being discussed


Then stop discussing it. :confused:

Look, if you want to insist on a head-to-head comparison of the two coaches we can all go down that road but that was never the point of this thread.


Maybe that wasnt the point of the thread but clearly the stats above are saying different. I dont "insist" anything. Bottom line is there is no comparison.

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Thu Dec 08, 2016 12:22 pm
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Post Re: Rand: Vikings failing when it matters most
So... the Vikings are a team that operates on a thin margin...

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Thu Dec 08, 2016 12:24 pm
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Post Re: Rand: Vikings failing when it matters most
mansquatch wrote:
https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/average-scoring-margin-point-differential-per-game/2016/

To the point about tight margins. This information will state the obvious: The NFL is competitive!

Avg point differential by teams is -0.3. If you take out the top 2 and bottom 2 as outliers, the average is close to zero. if you look at only the top teams, including the top 2, the average is 3.17, or a field goal. (Why replacing Walsh was such a big deal...)

Point of this is that teams having narrow margins of error is not uncommon in the NFL. Most games are not blow outs. Dallas' margin of victory over the Vikings was 2 points. Basically the difference between win and loss is as we saw above, a field goal.

Now I agree, our offense is anemic and cannot overcome even the simple mistakes as well as other teams in the league and that is a problem. But the idea that narrow margins are somehow a problem in the NFL denies the data. Most games are close and the teams that win are those that show consistent grit and make fewer mistakes / more plays when it counts. (This is a marked change from Frasier to Zimmer btw.)

I'm still not persuaded that if we had our 5 offensive players healthy this wouldn't be a 10-2 team. The corrollary of that comparison is why it is important. If you accept that having them back makes us 10-2, then it is reasonable to conclude that not having them is a major reason why we are 6-6. Therefore the talent isn't the issue so much as the durability.


But what about those of us who don't accept the premise this team would be 10-2 - even if the injuries where normalized to the league average (or less than the league average)?

Let's be honest here, the offense has been far from a world-beater. Even when we had healthy personnel it wasn't very good. Without getting into a lengthy debate, football is impossible to quantify hypothetically. Each play has numerous facets and even one guy doing a single action incorrectly could lead to disaster. Unfortunately, trying to hypothetically break down a team is an exercise in futility. For as many possibilities exist why we *could* be 10-2, there are infinitely as many possibilities why we could still end up being 6-6 - or even worse: 5-7

This digresses a bit, but this principle is a big reason why I hate analytics. It cannot account for the play call, the assignments of each player, the way the coaches want the assignments executed, and ultimately, it cannot account for human error. We, the viewing audience, only see fractions of each play. Sure, you can break the play down through tape later, but even then there are nuances that cannot be accounted for.

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Fri Dec 09, 2016 10:12 am
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