cmoss84 wrote:I'm as bah humbug as they get, but we win this one. Dak is a rookie. Being in the playoff hunt, at home, going against a 10-1 team, in a new stadium (which I hear is OK), it might be loud. If Xavier can shutdown Dez and we can play bend-don't break defense against Elliot, we can do this. Hold them to FGs. We score on defense. We win 20-16.
I have a sneaking suspicion that you haven't watched much Cowboys football this year
Dez is fundamentally a decoy for the team this year. He's there, and they do move him around way more this year than previous years in various spots, but his job is to peel CBs and get safeties to shade him. He's really good at body positioning and physical catching. Earlier in the year when Dak was still a little wobbly, he pulled in a pass around the front of a defender with sheer strength and dexterity, it was really impressive. But even for all of that, Dez isn't remotely what makes this offense tick. He missed games this year, and basically zilch changed.
BBDB doesn't stop running backs. That's a term for pulling coverage back and allowing underneath cushion so that you don't give up the 'big play'. It's used when you have one, some, or all of the following :
-A big lead you want to protect, or a decent lead late in a game, typically more than 1 score (slow the progress to reduce possession opportunities)
-Bad coverage guys, due to lack of talent, injury issues, bad matchups, etc.
Basically, nothing that really applies directly to the Vikings situation, because pulling guys back from the LOS area, and playing way off of the underneath stuff for the receivers is doubly counterproductive : you NEED extra guys close to the box to have a chance to stop the Zeke+Oline attack, and the Vikings have GREAT coverage guys. They don't need to play with a big cushion, they need to stay with the receivers. XR is one of the few CBs that is absolutely capable of 1v1 on Dez and not sweating it too much. The other receivers are more than capable, but I feel that the Vikings have the talent to match up well with them as long as they have the correct assignments and accountability.
I know BBDB, because that's been a constant thing the Cowboys have had to do this year to make up for injury and talent deficiency in coverage. We had ONE CB that was playing at a Pro Bowl level (held OBJ to very low stats, tons of key pass breakups, tight man coverage, etc), but he's down until week 17 or beyond. Our next best CB has been on two bad hammies for the past 6 weeks or so. Our best tackling veteran safety has been out since Philly with a broken forearm. All of this has meant : BBDB, because we've been leaning on a 6th round rookie CB, a perennial underachiever CB (Carr), and some practice-squad-level guys that wouldn't make the roster on most teams. Rotation is nest to nonexistent. Our 2nd year CB turned safety Byron Jones literally played every defensive snap last Thursday.
Where the trouble will probably come from is this :
How many guys do you need to cram in the box to stop Zeke in between the hashes? 6? 7? Ok, how about to also keep him from squirting around the edges? 8? Ok great. That has a pretty respectable chance of slowing Zeke down considerably (he still gets yards even in terrible situations, but 3 2.5 yard carries is not a 1st down). BUT : If you have Dez, Twill (or Butler), Beasley, and Witten all flying their routes, of which they have drawn up some masterful quick outlet stuff this year, how do you assign those 3 remaining guys on 4 receiving options?
Blitzing isn't the answer either, because the results of that have been terrible this year. During the first part of the Eagles game, they were coming with their hair on fire, ears pinned back, and it temporarily stifled Dak. We all wondered : is this it? Is this the derailing? Nope. In the same game, he started to see things in a new way, and started exploiting the blitz for solid damage. He's a known workaholic that looks at film constantly, and the next team to pin its ears back and tried to blitz him heavily was the Ravens, not known as a soft defense whatsoever. He put up absolutely elite stats on the Ravens for drive after drive (I think 5 straight scoring drives, all of which were dominated by heavy blitzing that was failing to rattle him). And that was after the Ravens opened the game by stacking the box with 8.
I'm not saying it's a foregone conclusion, or that anyone should feel confident in any particular result to any significant degree. The Cowboys are FAR from perfect. They have a defense largely devoid of talent who have dramatically overachieved in results, but they HAVE to be protected by the offense or that is going to be a big problem for the team. In a way, it's kind of a mirror to the Vikings, who own an overall fantastic defense, but an underpowered offense. When the defense can overachieve for you guys, it saves the offense from having to be superstars. Ditto my Cowboys.
Good luck, should be a fun game!