Prediction: Vikings 26 Texans 20
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SERIES HISTORY: 4th regular-season meeting. Vikings lead series, 3-0. Vikings are 1-0 at home with a 28-21 win in 2008 at the Metrodome.
GAMEDATE: Oct. 9, 2016
KEYS TO THE GAME: The Texans hold a two-game lead in the AFC South entering Week 5 but Houston was demolished in Week 3 at New England when it was last on the road, and draws the NFL's stingiest defense this week. The Vikings have a plus-10 turnover differential and allow only 12.5 points per game (second in the NFL) thanks to a consistently strong defense.
Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler steps into the lair of a Vikings' defense holding opposing quarterbacks to a collective QB rating of 67.6.
Vikings QB Sam Bradford ranks third in the league in passer rating (105.6) and completion percentage (69.5) despite being in town barely one month.
The plan is simple, but has been perfectly executed: Stop the run, attack the quarterback, don't make mistakes on offense and control field position with special teams. That plan has won the Vikings four games so far. Although the Vikings' league-leading pass rush (15 sacks) didn't sack Eli Manning on Monday night, it still played a significant role in disrupting the Giants' rhythm on offense. The Giants used short drops and quick throws, and Manning looked rushed the whole game and never got on track with Odell Beckham Jr., who was held to a career-low 23 yards receiving.
MATCHUPS TO WATCH:
--Vikings CB Xavier Rhodes vs. Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins: Yes, rookie Will Fuller is getting a lot of attention as the new receiver/returner in Houston. Last year, when Hopkins caught 111 balls for 1,521 yards and 11 touchdowns, he had only two games in which he was targeted fewer than nine times. This year, he's been targeted fewer than nine times in three of four games. He's the more polished and experience route runner, so don't be surprised if Rhodes, the big corner with a confident swag, shadows him. Rhodes was the primary defender when the Vikings held the Giants' Odell Beckham Jr. to a career-low 23 yards receiving on Monday night.
--Vikings RB Jerick McKinnon vs. Texans ILB Bernardrick McKinney: McKinney leads Houston in tackles with 38. The Vikings went into Monday night averaging a league-worst 51 yards per game rushing with a league-worst 2.1 average per carry. But the Giants gave them some favorable run looks and the Vikings were able to surpass 100 yards (104) for the first time this season. McKinnon is a small runner, but deceptively powerful with a thick lower body. He likes to run between the tackles and is able to slip through cracks. McKinney needs to fill those cracks quickly.
PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Vikings TE Kyle Rudolph -- He has caught one touchdown in each of the three games he's played with Bradford at quarterback, and behind Stefon Diggs is operating as Minnesota's No. 2 receiver. With 25 career touchdown catches, Rudolph needs four more to surpass Steve Jordan's team record
FAST FACTS: Over the past 15 seasons, Texans WR Will Fuller is one of only four rookies to have both a touchdown reception and a punt-return touchdown in the same game. ... The Vikings are 4-0 for the first time since 2009.
PREDICTION: Minnesota quickly assembled a bullying defense, and based on Houston's showing at New England two weeks ago, the Vikings have the edge as long as the offense remains mistake-free.
OUR PICK: Vikings, 23-17
