Oddsmakers put over/under at 6 wins

[Texas Vike]

Interesting article:
http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Odds ... 081114?t=2

Personally, when I see the Vikings' over/under set at 6 wins I'm sprinting to the betting window (Monopoly money, of course) to mash the over. Like, I'm tripping over chairs and doing spin moves around the floor staff.

IMO, this is a tough call. I can see the enthusiasm for the new coaches, but I also fear the reasons pointed out in the article for a low # of wins: playing outdoors at TCF, instability at QB, poor road record, tough schedule, etc.

Your take?

[Mothman]

There's no shortage of reasons to believe they could struggle again this season so the oddsmakers probably have that over/under set right. I could see the Vikings surprising people with a good start and a strong season or opening terribly and limping to the finish line. They have so many question marks it's just impossible to know what to expect. They certainly don't have the kind of roster, or overall situation, that makes me think, "There's no way this team doesn't finish with a winning record".

Put simply: just like the last few years, I doubt the team has much margin for error.

[DK Sweets]

Looking at this from a national standpoint, 6 seems completely fair. I'm really tempted to put money on the over, though.

[dead_poet]

Maybe I'm an optimist, but I'll take the over. If I just break it down to bare bones I think the offense will be neutral to net improvement thanks more to Turner than Cassel but Cassel isn't necessarily a step DOWN from Ponder (I'd say neutral/slight gain). Kalil is healthy. Peterson is healthy. Patterson is prime for a breakout and from what I've seen so far he's been a "first read" type of guy. Rudolph is healthy, lighter (faster?) and will be targeted often with Turner's TE track record. Zimmer's presence, healthy Smith, Joseph upgrading Evans/Guion in the middle, Rhodes with another year under his belt and Zimmer's influence and the Captain at corner on the opposite side all translate into a defensive net positive for me (not even counting Barr). The only potential knock is Griffen over Allen, but hopefully the talent gap there is minimal (if nonexistent). The offense should have enough firepower to keep them in games and the defense should be improved.

I think a lot of games will once again come down to the last 5 minutes. Hopefully the Vikings can put teams away this year.

[Purple bruise]

Maybe I'm an optimist, but I'll take the over. If I just break it down to bare bones I think the offense will be neutral to net improvement thanks more to Turner than Cassel but Cassel isn't necessarily a step DOWN from Ponder (I'd say neutral/slight gain). Kalil is healthy. Peterson is healthy. Patterson is prime for a breakout and from what I've seen so far he's been a "first read" type of guy. Rudolph is healthy, lighter (faster?) and will be targeted often with Turner's TE track record. Zimmer's presence, healthy Smith, Joseph upgrading Evans/Guion in the middle, Rhodes with another year under his belt and Zimmer's influence and the Captain at corner on the opposite side all translate into a defensive net positive for me (not even counting Barr). The only potential knock is Griffen over Allen, but hopefully the talent gap there is minimal (if nonexistent). The offense should have enough firepower to keep them in games and the defense should be improved.

I think a lot of games will once again come down to the last 5 minutes. Hopefully the Vikings can put teams away this year.

I agree and when you think back to last year that team could have easilly won 3 more games that the blew in the closing seconds, this team seems to be much improved for all the reasons that you just made. I am looking for a 10 win season and a play-off berth.

[J. Kapp 11]

Maybe I'm an optimist, but I'll take the over. If I just break it down to bare bones I think the offense will be neutral to net improvement thanks more to Turner than Cassel but Cassel isn't necessarily a step DOWN from Ponder (I'd say neutral/slight gain). Kalil is healthy. Peterson is healthy. Patterson is prime for a breakout and from what I've seen so far he's been a "first read" type of guy. Rudolph is healthy, lighter (faster?) and will be targeted often with Turner's TE track record. Zimmer's presence, healthy Smith, Joseph upgrading Evans/Guion in the middle, Rhodes with another year under his belt and Zimmer's influence and the Captain at corner on the opposite side all translate into a defensive net positive for me (not even counting Barr). The only potential knock is Griffen over Allen, but hopefully the talent gap there is minimal (if nonexistent). The offense should have enough firepower to keep them in games and the defense should be improved.

I think a lot of games will once again come down to the last 5 minutes. Hopefully the Vikings can put teams away this year.

I would have to agree. Don't know about 10 wins, but 6 (essentially the same as last year) doesn't seem to give the team enough credit.

As you said, there were a number of games last year that were lost in the late stages. I have to believe that we'll shore up at least one of those. Offensively, I see Norv Turner as such a significant upgrade over Bill Musgrave that it's almost hard to calculate. And I feel a little stronger about Cassel over Ponder than some, so I see quarterback play as a moderate upgrade (although it's unlikely to rise to the level of franchise play). The Vikings boast a number of offensive playmakers, many of whom were hurt (Peterson, Rudolph) or underutilized (Patterson, Jennings when Ponder was at QB) last year. Obviously the injury bug could bite again, but based on the full roster, the offense should be better.

The defense is the question mark for me. Zimmer definitely plays a more aggressive style -- right now, the Vikings' defensive players love it, but if the secondary and linebackers can't cover, then we could be in for another bottom-5 defense. If that's the case, 6 wins will be hard to get.

Being an optimist, I believe the defense will improve, so I'll take the over on 6 wins. But I'm an enormously biased Vikings fan who's aching to witness a revolution, so I admit I might not have my analyst's cap on straight.

[dead_poet]

Obviously the injury bug could bite again, but based on the full roster, the offense should be better.

This is something I forgot to mention. I think a LOT of the 6-win projection will come down to staying healthy. The Vikings aren't very deep at many positions and the dropoff at some is significant. An injury to Rhodes, Munnerlyn, Joseph, Kalil, Sullivan or Griffen would be very, very bad. I don't care if we have 12 DBs currently on the roster, aside from Rhodes, Smith and Munnerlyn there's a significant talent gap that could prove costly.

if the secondary and linebackers can't cover, then we could be in for another bottom-5 defense. If that's the case, 6 wins will be hard to get.

I'm pretty confident we'll see coverage improvements, if only because Cook is gone and Robinson should be nowhere near the slot. But the QBs and WRs in this division are some of the best in the game. I'm equally concerned about the pass rush. Gut feeling that bottom-5 defense won't happen. I have faith in Zimmer and I don't think he'd allow that. He'd probably suit up and play safety himself or hire a hit man to shoot tranquilizer darts at opposing QBs before he allows a bottom-five unit.

[Mothman]

I would have to agree. Don't know about 10 wins, but 6 (essentially the same as last year) doesn't seem to give the team enough credit.

Ah, but don't forget: that number isn't a prediction, it's an incentive to encourage the most betting action. In that sense, I think Vegas has it right. It's a number that seems likely to draw plenty of action from both Vikings optimists and Vikings pessimists. They're crafty out there in Vegas!

[mondry]

Count me in on the over as well for most of the reasons already stated. Really I think it's kind of insulting to think that we'll only manage half of a win more than last year. That's with Frazier starting Freeman essentially throwing a game away and his defense blowing what, 4 leads in the last minute? A lot of that is Musgrave's fault too, I don't see Turner playing it so safe and not trying to put the game away when they can.

Personally I see 8 wins, with about a 2 game spread in there, so they could win 10, they could win 6, I think that's the window. I'm not super familiar with betting so what happens if they win 6 games exactly? Everyone but the house loses? haha.

[Mothman]

Count me in on the over as well for most of the reasons already stated. Really I think it's kind of insulting to think that we'll only manage half of a win more than last year. That's with Frazier starting Freeman essentially throwing a game away and his defense blowing what, 4 leads in the last minute? A lot of that is Musgrave's fault too, I don't see Turner playing it so safe and not trying to put the game away when they can.

Personally I see 8 wins, with about a 2 game spread in there, so they could win 10, they could win 6, I think that's the window. I'm not super familiar with betting so what happens if they win 6 games exactly? Everyone but the house loses? haha.

Yep. I think that's called a "push", although I don't bet so I'm not that familiar with it either.

I agree that Frazier threw a game away by starting freeman but you mentioned coaching and more coaching in regard to last year's close losses and while I'm not looking to delve back into that debate, it's worth noting that the same coaching staff was in place a year earlier when the Vikes won more close games than almost any team in the league and made the playoffs. My point is that the players played the games each of those years and many of the same players will be playing again this year. The outcomes will still come down to how they execute the game plans, even if we assume the game plans will be superior. There are still potential depth issues and, as other have pointed out, injuries could play a huge role this season if the Vikes get hit at positions where they can ill afford to lose starters.

I think the Vikings will probably win more than 6 games this year but I see nothing insulting at all about the idea that they might only manage 6. After all, they've only done better than that once in the last 4 years. It's not uncommon for a team with a new coaching staff to take a step back or level off for a year before taking a significant step forward in the win column. There's usually an adjustment period that accomopanies the changes in personnel and scheme that come with a coaching change. On top of that, you have the less than encouraging history of displaced teams, several unsettled positions on defense, a questionable QB situation and a schedule that could prove to be absolutely brutal.

[indianation65]

Laughs abounding...nobody knows how any team will fare before a season starts. It's takes 4-6 games to really know anything. Who would have imagined Houston's last two seasons?

...wisdom

[Webbfann]

Exactly. More web blubber-blabber.

[Mothman]

Laughs abounding...nobody knows how any team will fare before a season starts. It's takes 4-6 games to really know anything. Who would have imagined Houston's last two seasons?

Again, it's important to remember that the 6 win over/under is not a prediction of how many games the Vikings will win, it's the estimated win total the oddsmakers believe will encourage a relatively equal number of bets on both the over and under. In other words, they aren't saying they know how the Vikings will fare this season, they just believe 6 is the number that will encourage about 50% of bettors to go with the over and 50% to go with the under. If too many bet one way or the other, that 6 win total will begin shift upward or downward in an effort to equalize the bets.

[Eli]

If I were an odds maker, 6 wins is the number I'd set for the over/under. I think the Vikings have a 5-7 win season ahead of them.

A lot of the talk above seems to count on the Vikings staying healthy, which very seldom happens. The question will not be if anyone gets injured this year, but who and how badly. They're relatively healthy today, but last year they also began the season in good health.

[indianation65]

Exactly, it's all guess work, and in today's NFL, any team can happen either way! Go Vikes!

...wisdom